FX Ellioticians

[throughthemud 10]

A quick shot of my target for today. I think I'll close all positions at that point and maybe do a short.

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Reluctant to label this on the 15min ...but if it walks like a duck & quacks like a duck...

 

This could be a diagonal triangle ending the 3rd wave...will be paying close attention to a possible e throwover and the chance to short...though the downside seems limited if the primary count is still good

 

Anyway...moving the stop to just below my b

 

Even worse!...Sleepy Monday morning in US with no figures....I was hoping to get a chance to cash in 80pts but it increasingly looks like being stopped out for peanuts

Edited January 11, 2010 by VILLAFILLER
Diagonal support broken

[throughthemud 10]

I was surprised the euro didn't make it any higher than it did today. The high could be the completion of wave iii of (iii) of c (circle) (highest probability by my mind) but I think we may not have hit wave 5 of iii yet. Whatever the case may be there should be another push higher and I think it would have to make it above the 1.4585 resistance so I'm thinking that leaves us open all the way to 1.4680.

Edited January 12, 2010 by throughthemud

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Hi TTM,

 

I have an alternate which I'd like to hear your thoughts on....

 

...it could call for a turn soon with my recent ABC being an expanded flat - 162% of A ends @014600 and coincides with 100% of i off iv plus the reasons @ 14585

 

VR

[throughthemud 10]

Good call. I can definitely see that as a possibility. I have my limit at 1.4585. Despite what I said last night I think that would be a good stopping point whether this is the end of minor wave 2 or the end of wave iv (circle) like you pointed out. So, the difference doesn't matter right now but it will have a big impact a little bit down the road.

 

Just to play on the side of caution I'm switching my primary count to the expanded flat. That will call for more conservative targets following the next low. It will also enable us to still hit the 1.4680 level when minor wave 2 finally appears.

[throughthemud 10]

I'm fully leveraged long again now. I put an entry order at 1.4630 to enter my short position. I still have my limit at 1.4585 because I want to be sure that gets hit if I'm not able to check on it very much today.

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Hi....

 

I sold 14500 into what I read as c of 2...squared up and went long at 14470 for what I hope to be a minor 3 of 5 up near 14585...

 

Best laid plans etc, etc....looking for new highs above 14522

 

VR

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Morning,

 

My latest offering for the next two days - the trouble with a 4th wave triangle is you can't be sure about it until it's virtually over...

 

...I see the orthodox end of the minor 3rd @ 14532, then an a, b & c in 3 waves each

 

Yesterday I misread 'a' as the complete 4 but still managed to make some - if the theory holds then will look to buy an 'e' throwover with the usual confirmations.

 

If it does end up being a 4th triangle then it would add weight to the theory of a final 5th wave rally followed by a major reversal

 

VR

 

just bot half a position within 10pts of my 'c' low

[throughthemud 10]

Yeah, I realized yesterday that I was getting ahead of myself. I don't know why I expected the 4th wave to be over so quickly. A good indicator is rsi-7 on the 4 hour chart. It should get to oversold or very close before the correction is over at this degree. One other thing is I wouldn't expect the e wave throw over even though it is common. Just act like it's not there because it's really only a few pips even if this happens. Play it conservative because e and the wave 5 following are likely to be very quick and sharp. I have an entry set at each area to pick them all up.

[throughthemud 10]

I dropped the ball here. I saw the 1.4576 level yesterday because it is wave equality between wave (i) and (v). I expected it to go past that though so I didn't even consider it as a possibility. I thought you were on the money with the triangle pattern but it was obvious it was wrong wheni saw the momentum of that wave. In any case I missed my entry for the short but I have one set at 1.4545 to get fully leveraged to the downside when it comes back up.

[VILLAFILLER 10]

I was out for the day so made on the long from 14465 on what I took to be c-d but caught a piano on the short order @ 14535.

 

Got home and realised I missed the boat on the short we've been talking about for a week (having assumed I had time to get back for it)...but I will be paying close attention to the shoulder you mention at 45 (though I'm a little worried that the action today was on 3 waves rather than 5)

 

VR

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Hi,

 

It may be hard to believe, but I do more than sitting here staring at charts - anyway I have another alternate (and I don't consider this anything more than something to have stored away as a standby)...

 

...The 3-wave count today to 14579 has been bothering me and the only way I can think of to explain it within Elliott is (another) expanding flat...

 

It makes little difference in the short-term, since it still calls for a 5-wave drop off today's high but, if correct, means that any downside break could be a bear-trap.

 

- 162% of my higher TF 'A' off 'B' 14595

- 38.2% retracement of i-iii @ 14430

- 162% of my near-term 'a' off todays high hits previous resistance @14430

- 100% of 'i' off 14430 hits 14585

 

It does suggest a flat minor 5th @ 14430 and is kind of curve-fitting my need to see 14585/14600 but ...I really don't like todays 3-wave move :doh:

 

Explain to me where I'm wrong and I can forget it and move on

 

VR

[throughthemud 10]

I'm not going to say you are wrong 100% but that seeming 3 wave pattern is not what bothers me. The only thing I'm missing is RSI-7 falling farther on the 4 hour for the end of wave (iv) and rising to 70 on the daily for the end of wave (v). I still think that was wave (v) because of its size and speed. This is common for wave 5s. The reason they can seem to be 3 wave patterns is because of the triangles that are common in wave 4s. It was a converging triangle but we failed to recognize the end of the pattern.

[throughthemud 10]

I'm fully leveraged at 1.4536. Crossing my fingers!

[throughthemud 10]

Just looked at targets for wave v (circle) of 1 based on counting the entire correction since december 22nd and if waves i (circle) and v (circle) are equal that doesn't even put us at a new low. I think that knowledge greatly reduces the probability that we are beginning wave v (circle) of 1.

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Just looked at targets for wave v (circle) of 1 based on counting the entire correction since december 22nd and if waves i (circle) and v (circle) are equal that doesn't even put us at a new low. I think that knowledge greatly reduces the probability that we are beginning wave v (circle) of 1.

 

Hi TTM,

 

Is it possible to post a chart with this?...I'm short around the same level as you but this is not exactly flying

 

Thanks,

 

VR

[throughthemud 10]

Here you go. I was just being lazy. I know you were labeling the end of the last wave as a third of a third so that may be where your outlook was confusing with my outlook but I don't see anyway that the last two corrective waves can be of the same degree. The last corrective wave at most could correspond with the corrective wave I've labeled ii (circle) on the chart.

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Hi...thanks for the chart

 

I'm switching my primary to this (a complete 5 down)....barring an obvious contradiction...I'll be willing to see a deeper dip on my near-term iv than 14430, but I don't think this correction has completed yet.

 

Going to be holding this short but will be seeing if my planets align for a speculative long around 14440

 

But then again, I've been wrong all this week ...this drop today just doesn't seem to be a 3rd of reversal

 

VR

Edited January 14, 2010 by VILLAFILLER
add the 5-wave drop

[throughthemud 10]

Here's my current count. It calls for a more aggressive downward stance. The 3rd wave lacking momentum you sighted I have labeled a smaller degree 1st and 2nd wave. We're now ending a series of 1s and 2s from my count.

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Hi...I went short @ 14542..missed my squaring-up target at 14440 but added to the short at 14504.

 

Attached my long-term count & short-term (tempted to buy back my two shorts @ 14450) & buy into a wave 2 opportunity tomorrow morning rather than wait for a wave 1 bounce this evening.

 

VR

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Just gone long here based on

 

168% of my near-term A

5 waves down

previous level @ 14372

Momentum on 4hr, 1hr & 15min oversold

 

Fingers crossed

 

VR

[throughthemud 10]

I went long at the upper 1.4360s and my limit is set at 1.4423 as I am only looking for a 4th wave correction. Once the next wave starts taking form I'll discuss it further. I will post a chart this weekend. I'm traveling right now and just trading from my iPhone.

[throughthemud 10]

Here is my current count and outlook for next week. I think we are currently in a small degree fourth wave. I'm keeping my limit at 1.4423. I have a short entry set at about 1.4440 but we'll have to see how the wave starts forming to get a better idea of where it is going. The main unknown I have that will affect my trading next week is whether the 5th wave that is soon to begin will be the 5th of a 5th or the 5th of a 1st.

[elovemer 10]

..........

...........

...........

[throughthemud 10]

elovemer,

don't post in this thread if you're not going to explain what you're posting and it should have some relevance to elliott wave