FX Ellioticians

[throughthemud 10]

Yes you did answer one question but what about the other two far more important questions?

[throughthemud 10]

I entered on the downside. I'm figuring that a good explanation for why the C wave looks like it does is this is actually just wave iv (circle) of 1 instead of a-b-c of 2 like VILLAFILLER and I we're looking at earlier. we'll have to see how this plays out

[marketwavez 10]

Yes you did answer one question but what about the other two far more important questions?

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

The End of Wave A chart is the main chart i'm using ---- Ive already explained that early on in the post above

 

The End of Wave 3 charts is only my alternate count

 

--------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Target --- see these charts below

 

i had explained that explained that i'm trading the End Wave A low is my main chart with 4510 as target

 

and i explained that the End of Wave 3 chart was my alternate count

 

I responded to you right away ,,,,,, after you made your post

---------------------------------------------------------- ------------- -----------------------

Edited January 5, 2010 by marketwavez

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Happy New Year TTM & All,

 

As per my pre-Xmas count I shorted €/$ @ 14410 the Monday after Xmas but got stopped out flat and couldn't see an obvious count after that so spent the time with the kids:)

 

Yesterday I had a 5-count up but the overnight rally made me re-label it this morning.

 

Looking for an obvious 3-wave correction to go long but doing nothing unless it's really clear

 

VR

[marketwavez 10]

Marketwavez,

Please start your own thread and stop posting in this one since you won't provide explanation or answer criticism. I can only see your posts harming people interested in the wave principle. This thread is about sharing and learning from each other not seeing how many numbers you can fit on a chart or how fast you can post charts.

 

throughthemud

 

i have been in this forum for 1 day ----

 

 

i searched this forum for a Elliott-Wave thread to be a part of

 

and i had found only 2 threads pertaining to Elliott Waves

yours which is focused on FX the other was focused on Stocks

 

so naturally being a Forex trader I decided to post in your thread

 

 

========================== =========================== =====================

now you are asking me to leave ,,,,,, because you are saying wont provide explanation to your questions ,,,,,

 

but the truth of the matter is i did immediately responded to your questions

( meanwhile all of a sudden you are now saying i did answre one of them )

 

so i must respect you ........ it's your thread after all

 

-------------------------- -------------------------------- ---------------

Edited January 5, 2010 by marketwavez

[throughthemud 10]

Marketwavez,

I accept your withdrawal. Thank you for your cooperation.

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Happy New Year TTM & All,

 

As per my pre-Xmas count I shorted €/$ @ 14410 the Monday after Xmas but got stopped out flat and couldn't see an obvious count after that so spent the time with the kids:)

 

Yesterday I had a 5-count up but the overnight rally made me re-label it this morning.

 

Looking for an obvious 3-wave correction to go long but doing nothing unless it's really clear

 

VR

 

Hi,

 

If the recent high holds (my b) then I like 14372 for a 100pt long trade, targeting above the 5 @14483 - will be looking for a momentum confirmation and a bounce before entering

 

50% retracement of yesterday's 5-wave rally

100% of a

previous S&R level

 

VR

[thalestrader 14]

i have been in this forum for 1 day ----

 

 

i searched this forum for a Elliott-Wave thread to be a part of

 

and i had found only 2 threads pertaining to Elliott Waves

yours which is focused on FX the other was focused on Stocks

 

so naturally being a Forex trader I decided to post in your thread

 

Hi there, marketwavez,

 

I have a thread here at TL focused mostly on trading spot forex and currency futures. I do a little Elliot Wave myself, and you if you wish for a place to post your counts I'd welcome you in my thread.

 

You can find it here:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f208/reading-charts-real-time-6151.html

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[throughthemud 10]

We're at a critical juncture here. My primary wave count puts us at the beginning of wave (iii) of c (circle) and my alternate puts us at wave (ii) or v (circle). We'll know today which one was correct. I'm not feeling much more confident either way but the things I've talked about before such as the rsi-7 on the daily seem to suggest a larger rise is on the way. Also the last wave had the look of a second wave. Any drop below 1.4267 would indicate my alternate count was correct. Minimum target for wave (iii) of c (circle) would be about 1.4620.

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Morning,

 

My idea got nixed pretty quickly last night

 

Going to have to wait out for the counts to resolve but it's tempting to take a cheap long down here if we see a retest of the support - might think about it if there's a divergence.

 

VR

[throughthemud 10]

I set an entry order at 1.4318 for a full long position with a stop set at the low. I may enter before that if I get impatient or we see 5 waves down on the 5 minute scale

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Right...going to stick my neck out again for everyone's consideration...

 

Should my pre-holidays assumption of a € bottom at 14216 being a 3-wave (possibly a 5) down be correct & monday's rally was actually a C then I have a possible level at 14439

 

Today's action looks to be 3 waves with iv of c in play at the moment

14439 ...

78.6% retracement of yesterday's drop

100% of my a wave today off b

previous resistance

 

As usual, for me, I'll be looking for momentum confirmation & ideally a divergence - clearly a break of 14485 will negate this.

 

VR

[throughthemud 10]

I definitely agree with this being wave iv (circle). As you noted the initial rise was 3 waves so this seems to negate the possibility of a larger rise. Wave c of (ii) of v (circle) appears to have ended and we're at the beginning of a wave 3 downward.

 

Initial target for wave (iii) of v (circle)

1.4109

 

Initial target for wave v (circle)

via trendline: ~1.3900 (I don't believe it will actually reach that level)

via fib wave 1 = 5: ~1.4168 (I have a hard time believing it will not surpass this level)

Edited January 6, 2010 by throughthemud
added targets

[throughthemud 10]

Non-farm payrolls this morning. Normally it's a good day but I'm lacking confidence in my position so I'm deleveraging down to a small position. Not seeing a full movement yesterday lowered my confidence in the short position. Dynamic resistance off the lows seems to be holding everything up. Looking at usd index also made things look more murky. Today should clear everything up though.

[throughthemud 10]

Here are charts of my primary and alternate counts. Both call for an upward movement but my primary count calls for a short upward movement ending by about 1.4330 or a little higher and my alternate calls for a very large upward movement in a third of a third wave. I switched to a long position at about 1.4300 and I will place a stop right above that once the market moves higher. My current stop is at 1.4280. I'm hoping my alternate count is correct. The RSI on the hourly and 4 hour seems to point that way too but not strongly enough for very high confidence.

[throughthemud 10]

I got stopped out but I'm a glutton for punishment so I jumped back in.

[VILLAFILLER 10]

That put paid to my short...had high hopes for a while

 

Back to sitting back and waiting for a count to show up again

[throughthemud 10]

I got in at 1.4272 fully leveraged. My last two trades were losers but this made up for many times over. I just kept feeling more and more confident that it had to go up and once it passes 1.4335 I was 100% confident of where it was going

[VILLAFILLER 10]

I got in at 1.4272 fully leveraged. My last two trades were losers but this made up for many times over. I just kept feeling more and more confident that it had to go up and once it passes 1.4335 I was 100% confident of where it was going

 

Very nice work!...Good end to the week

Non-farm cost me 100pts but still got out with a reasonable profit...shutting down now...have a good one.

[throughthemud 10]

Here's my chart of Minor degree wave pattern. This is my primary forecast. The wave (iii) and (v) of c (circle) highs are at areas of strong support going as far back as late 2007. We'll have to wait and see how and if wave (iii) forms before I can refine these targets. I will post my alternate count later.

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Hi,

 

My primary read has a 3-wave breakdown from the 26th November $ turn...though will be open to this being a complete 5

 

At the moment my primary count of an ABC 4th wave correction hasn't been negated on my plan (though it's on pretty shaky ground - I didn't like the short duration of the C & Friday afternoon's action could still be a i & ii of 3 of 5 while 14448 holds).

 

I'm hoping that the asian session will help with the count one way or another...

 

...a break of 14448 (and subsequent 14485) will clarify that this is a larger C-wave move up. Although, I'm not all that comfortable with an extended 5-wave (a break of 14500 will be extended on both price and time based on wave A).

 

- If we see that then I will be paying close attention to 14585 for a possible short

1. Existing support & resistance
   
2. 38.2% of the 1-3 breakdown
   
3. 61.8% of wave 3
   
4. 162% of TTM's wave 1 off Friday's low
   

 

to try and pick up a buy @14500 to what I see as a good level for the short into wave 5 (possibly a 3, if the move down to 14216 was indeed a complete 5) at 14670

1. Existing support & resistance level
   
2. The level of Wave 1 12/09/09
   
3. 50% of the 1-3 breakdown
   
4. 162% of A off B (shaky for a 5-3-5 correction, but C would be extended)
   
5. 78.6% of wave 3
   

 

On the other hand, if price fails to break 14448 and significantly overlaps back into Friday's territory I'll start to think that I got squeezed out of my 14439 short cheaply

 

Watch this space for me to have to eat my words on these levels!

 

VR

[throughthemud 10]

The chart I attached is the only alternate count I see though it is close to your primary count. I think this wave 4 has been going on too long to still be part of the wave structure you're showing. That's why I'm calling it the 3rd and 5th waves of the entire movement since the 26th of November. This being a 2nd wave I don't have much of a problem with an extended wave C.

 

I agree with the levels you have identified. The resistance at 1.4585 that you were looking at I figure to be a likely stopping point for wave iii of (iii) of c (circle). At most I think it would be the end of wave (iii) and be surpassed by wave (v) but time will tell I suppose. We won't have to worry about it if my primary count turns out to be wrong.

[throughthemud 10]

here we go villa. I think we'll keep going until about 1.4510 which is the area of dynamic resistance off the highs from 12/29 and 01/05 and I'll add to my position on that pull back but I'm a little over leveraged already.

[throughthemud 10]

If you count wave (i) of c (circle) as complete at 10:00 on 01/04 with a high of 1.4455 and the next thrust up as being wave b of (w) then the 1.618 fib level for wave (iii) puts us at 1.4583. Just some more fuel for the fire on that resistance level you brought up. Sorry I can't take a screenshot to show a chart for some reason.

[VILLAFILLER 10]

I was already crashed out by the time Asia opened (3 mnth old twins to help with)...but in the spirit of collaboration, this morning I bot a cheap 10pt stop @ 14485 on the test of your wave one resistance turned support level - working well for me at the moment, thanks - I'm pretty sure I wouldn't have labeled last week a 1, 2 without this discussion.

 

If we see new highs past 14533 I'll move to break even and look to 80/85 for a possible turn.

 

VR