Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

throughthemud

FX Ellioticians

Recommended Posts

I entered on the downside. I'm figuring that a good explanation for why the C wave looks like it does is this is actually just wave iv (circle) of 1 instead of a-b-c of 2 like VILLAFILLER and I we're looking at earlier. we'll have to see how this plays out

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yes you did answer one question but what about the other two far more important questions?

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

The End of Wave A chart is the main chart i'm using ---- Ive already explained that early on in the post above

 

The End of Wave 3 charts is only my alternate count

 

--------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Target --- see these charts below

 

i had explained that explained that i'm trading the End Wave A low is my main chart with 4510 as target

 

and i explained that the End of Wave 3 chart was my alternate count

 

I responded to you right away ,,,,,, after you made your post

---------------------------------------------------------- ------------- -----------------------

Edited by marketwavez

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Happy New Year TTM & All,

 

As per my pre-Xmas count I shorted €/$ @ 14410 the Monday after Xmas but got stopped out flat and couldn't see an obvious count after that so spent the time with the kids:)

 

Yesterday I had a 5-count up but the overnight rally made me re-label it this morning.

 

Looking for an obvious 3-wave correction to go long but doing nothing unless it's really clear

 

VR

impulse4jan.thumb.gif.ad31545cf340c3d09ab567ee95062f3b.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Marketwavez,

Please start your own thread and stop posting in this one since you won't provide explanation or answer criticism. I can only see your posts harming people interested in the wave principle. This thread is about sharing and learning from each other not seeing how many numbers you can fit on a chart or how fast you can post charts.

 

throughthemud

 

i have been in this forum for 1 day ----

 

 

i searched this forum for a Elliott-Wave thread to be a part of

 

and i had found only 2 threads pertaining to Elliott Waves

yours which is focused on FX the other was focused on Stocks

 

so naturally being a Forex trader I decided to post in your thread

 

 

========================== =========================== =====================

now you are asking me to leave ,,,,,, because you are saying wont provide explanation to your questions ,,,,,

 

but the truth of the matter is i did immediately responded to your questions

( meanwhile all of a sudden you are now saying i did answre one of them )

 

so i must respect you ........ it's your thread after all

 

-------------------------- -------------------------------- ---------------

Edited by marketwavez

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Happy New Year TTM & All,

 

As per my pre-Xmas count I shorted €/$ @ 14410 the Monday after Xmas but got stopped out flat and couldn't see an obvious count after that so spent the time with the kids:)

 

Yesterday I had a 5-count up but the overnight rally made me re-label it this morning.

 

Looking for an obvious 3-wave correction to go long but doing nothing unless it's really clear

 

VR

 

Hi,

 

If the recent high holds (my b) then I like 14372 for a 100pt long trade, targeting above the 5 @14483 - will be looking for a momentum confirmation and a bounce before entering

 

50% retracement of yesterday's 5-wave rally

100% of a

previous S&R level

 

VR

impulse4jan.thumb.gif.4d8e759f2858f2c3be00a374b57b285e.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i have been in this forum for 1 day ----

 

 

i searched this forum for a Elliott-Wave thread to be a part of

 

and i had found only 2 threads pertaining to Elliott Waves

yours which is focused on FX the other was focused on Stocks

 

so naturally being a Forex trader I decided to post in your thread

 

Hi there, marketwavez,

 

I have a thread here at TL focused mostly on trading spot forex and currency futures. I do a little Elliot Wave myself, and you if you wish for a place to post your counts I'd welcome you in my thread.

 

You can find it here:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f208/reading-charts-real-time-6151.html

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We're at a critical juncture here. My primary wave count puts us at the beginning of wave (iii) of c (circle) and my alternate puts us at wave (ii) or v (circle). We'll know today which one was correct. I'm not feeling much more confident either way but the things I've talked about before such as the rsi-7 on the daily seem to suggest a larger rise is on the way. Also the last wave had the look of a second wave. Any drop below 1.4267 would indicate my alternate count was correct. Minimum target for wave (iii) of c (circle) would be about 1.4620.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning,

 

My idea got nixed pretty quickly last night :roll eyes:

 

Going to have to wait out for the counts to resolve but it's tempting to take a cheap long down here if we see a retest of the support - might think about it if there's a divergence.

 

VR

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Right...going to stick my neck out again for everyone's consideration...

 

Should my pre-holidays assumption of a € bottom at 14216 being a 3-wave (possibly a 5) down be correct & monday's rally was actually a C then I have a possible level at 14439

 

Today's action looks to be 3 waves with iv of c in play at the moment

14439 ...

78.6% retracement of yesterday's drop

100% of my a wave today off b

previous resistance

 

As usual, for me, I'll be looking for momentum confirmation & ideally a divergence - clearly a break of 14485 will negate this.

 

VR

correct6jan.gif.392946526aa638fa2d06e61036c60b0b.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I definitely agree with this being wave iv (circle). As you noted the initial rise was 3 waves so this seems to negate the possibility of a larger rise. Wave c of (ii) of v (circle) appears to have ended and we're at the beginning of a wave 3 downward.

 

Initial target for wave (iii) of v (circle)

1.4109

 

Initial target for wave v (circle)

via trendline: ~1.3900 (I don't believe it will actually reach that level)

via fib wave 1 = 5: ~1.4168 (I have a hard time believing it will not surpass this level)

eur01-06.thumb.PNG.f70b6ff672a751e0544c65be48854c81.PNG

Edited by throughthemud
added targets

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Non-farm payrolls this morning. Normally it's a good day but I'm lacking confidence in my position so I'm deleveraging down to a small position. Not seeing a full movement yesterday lowered my confidence in the short position. Dynamic resistance off the lows seems to be holding everything up. Looking at usd index also made things look more murky. Today should clear everything up though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here are charts of my primary and alternate counts. Both call for an upward movement but my primary count calls for a short upward movement ending by about 1.4330 or a little higher and my alternate calls for a very large upward movement in a third of a third wave. I switched to a long position at about 1.4300 and I will place a stop right above that once the market moves higher. My current stop is at 1.4280. I'm hoping my alternate count is correct. The RSI on the hourly and 4 hour seems to point that way too but not strongly enough for very high confidence.

eur01-08pri.PNG.6a50b61e1212686218a8226ac1d0a045.PNG

eur01-08alt.PNG.d626743eb449874ae09e0da21a62cb8f.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I got in at 1.4272 fully leveraged. My last two trades were losers but this made up for many times over. I just kept feeling more and more confident that it had to go up and once it passes 1.4335 I was 100% confident of where it was going

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I got in at 1.4272 fully leveraged. My last two trades were losers but this made up for many times over. I just kept feeling more and more confident that it had to go up and once it passes 1.4335 I was 100% confident of where it was going

 

Very nice work!...Good end to the week

Non-farm cost me 100pts but still got out with a reasonable profit...shutting down now...have a good one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's my chart of Minor degree wave pattern. This is my primary forecast. The wave (iii) and (v) of c (circle) highs are at areas of strong support going as far back as late 2007. We'll have to wait and see how and if wave (iii) forms before I can refine these targets. I will post my alternate count later.

euro01-09-10minorforecast.thumb.PNG.3d90dea9ea750d2fb99ac0336dc20bfd.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi,

 

My primary read has a 3-wave breakdown from the 26th November $ turn...though will be open to this being a complete 5

 

At the moment my primary count of an ABC 4th wave correction hasn't been negated on my plan (though it's on pretty shaky ground - I didn't like the short duration of the C & Friday afternoon's action could still be a i & ii of 3 of 5 while 14448 holds).

 

I'm hoping that the asian session will help with the count one way or another...

 

...a break of 14448 (and subsequent 14485) will clarify that this is a larger C-wave move up. Although, I'm not all that comfortable with an extended 5-wave (a break of 14500 will be extended on both price and time based on wave A).

 

- If we see that then I will be paying close attention to 14585 for a possible short

  1. Existing support & resistance
  2. 38.2% of the 1-3 breakdown
  3. 61.8% of wave 3
  4. 162% of TTM's wave 1 off Friday's low

 

to try and pick up a buy @14500 to what I see as a good level for the short into wave 5 (possibly a 3, if the move down to 14216 was indeed a complete 5) at 14670

  1. Existing support & resistance level
  2. The level of Wave 1 12/09/09
  3. 50% of the 1-3 breakdown
  4. 162% of A off B (shaky for a 5-3-5 correction, but C would be extended)
  5. 78.6% of wave 3

 

On the other hand, if price fails to break 14448 and significantly overlaps back into Friday's territory I'll start to think that I got squeezed out of my 14439 short cheaply :)

 

Watch this space for me to have to eat my words on these levels!

 

VR

turningpoint11jan.thumb.jpg.d5ad9e4c3609e04bc475202c8396d631.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The chart I attached is the only alternate count I see though it is close to your primary count. I think this wave 4 has been going on too long to still be part of the wave structure you're showing. That's why I'm calling it the 3rd and 5th waves of the entire movement since the 26th of November. This being a 2nd wave I don't have much of a problem with an extended wave C.

 

I agree with the levels you have identified. The resistance at 1.4585 that you were looking at I figure to be a likely stopping point for wave iii of (iii) of c (circle). At most I think it would be the end of wave (iii) and be surpassed by wave (v) but time will tell I suppose. We won't have to worry about it if my primary count turns out to be wrong.

eur01-10-10alt.thumb.PNG.fb7d28a661ddf04dad702f9e20f762ab.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you count wave (i) of c (circle) as complete at 10:00 on 01/04 with a high of 1.4455 and the next thrust up as being wave b of (w) then the 1.618 fib level for wave (iii) puts us at 1.4583. Just some more fuel for the fire on that resistance level you brought up. Sorry I can't take a screenshot to show a chart for some reason.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was already crashed out by the time Asia opened (3 mnth old twins to help with)...but in the spirit of collaboration, this morning I bot a cheap 10pt stop @ 14485 on the test of your wave one resistance turned support level - working well for me at the moment, thanks - I'm pretty sure I wouldn't have labeled last week a 1, 2 without this discussion.

 

If we see new highs past 14533 I'll move to break even and look to 80/85 for a possible turn.

 

VR

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Thx for reminding us... I don't bang that drum often enough anymore Another part for consideration is who that money initially went to...
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • How long does it take to receive HFM's withdrawal via Skrill? less than 24H?
    • My wife Robin just wanted some groceries.   Simple enough.   She parked the car for fifteen minutes, and returned to find a huge scratch on the side.   Someone keyed her car.   To be clear, this isn’t just any car.   It’s a Cybertruck—Elon Musk's stainless-steel spaceship on wheels. She bought it back in 2021, before Musk became everyone's favorite villain or savior.   Someone saw it parked in a grocery lot and felt compelled to carve their hatred directly into the metal.   That's what happens when you stand out.   Nobody keys a beige minivan.   When you're polarizing, you're impossible to ignore. But the irony is: the more attention something has, the harder it is to find the truth about it.   What’s Elon Musk really thinking? What are his plans? What will happen with DOGE? Is he deserving of all of this adoration and hate? Hard to say.   Ideas work the same way.   Take tariffs, for example.   Tariffs have become the Cybertrucks of economic policy. People either love them or hate them. Even if they don’t understand what they are and how they work. (Most don’t.)   That’s why, in my latest podcast (link below), I wanted to explore the “in-between” truth about tariffs.   And like Cybertrucks, I guess my thoughts on tariffs are polarizing.   Greg Gutfield mentioned me on Fox News. Harvard professors hate me now. (I wonder if they also key Cybertrucks?)   But before I show you what I think about tariffs… I have to mention something.   We’re Headed to Austin, Texas This weekend, my team and I are headed to Austin. By now, you should probably know why.   Yes, SXSW is happening. But my team and I are doing something I think is even better.   We’re putting on a FREE event on “Tech’s Turning Point.”   AI, quantum, biotech, crypto, and more—it’s all on the table.   Just now, we posted a special webpage with the agenda.   Click here to check it out and add it to your calendar.   The Truth About Tariffs People love to panic about tariffs causing inflation.   They wave around the ghost of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff from the Great Depression like it’s Exhibit A proving tariffs equal economic collapse.   But let me pop this myth:   Tariffs don’t cause inflation. And no, I'm not crazy (despite what angry professors from Harvard or Stanford might tweet at me).   Here's the deal.   Inflation isn’t when just a couple of things become pricier. It’s when your entire shopping basket—eggs, shirts, Netflix subscriptions, bananas, everything—starts costing more because your money’s worth less.   Inflation means your dollars aren’t stretching as far as they used to.   Take the 1800s.   For nearly a century, 97% of America’s revenue came from tariffs. Income tax? Didn’t exist. And guess what inflation was? Basically zero. Maybe 1% a year.   The economy was booming, and tariffs funded nearly everything. So, why do people suddenly think tariffs cause inflation today?   Tariffs are taxes on imports, yes, but prices are set by supply and demand—not tariffs.   Let me give you a simple example.   Imagine fancy potato chips from Canada cost $10, and a 20% tariff pushes that to $12. Everyone panics—prices rose! Inflation!   Nope.   If I only have $100 to spend and the price of my favorite chips goes up, I either stop buying chips or I buy, say, fewer newspapers.   If everyone stops buying newspapers because they’re overspending on chips, newspapers lower their prices or go out of business.   Overall spending stays the same, and inflation doesn’t budge.   Three quick scenarios:   We buy pricier chips, but fewer other things: Inflation unchanged. Manufacturers shift to the U.S. to avoid tariffs: Inflation unchanged (and more jobs here). We stop buying fancy chips: Prices drop again. Inflation? Still unchanged. The only thing that actually causes inflation is printing money.   Between 2020 and 2022 alone, 40% of all money ever created in history appeared overnight.   That’s why inflation shot up afterward—not because of tariffs.   Back to tariffs today.   Still No Inflation Unlike the infamous Smoot-Hawley blanket tariff (imagine Oprah handing out tariffs: "You get a tariff, and you get a tariff!"), today's tariffs are strategic.   Trump slapped tariffs on chips from Taiwan because we shouldn’t rely on a single foreign supplier for vital tech components—especially if that supplier might get invaded.   Now Taiwan Semiconductor is investing $100 billion in American manufacturing.   Strategic win, no inflation.   Then there’s Canada and Mexico—our friendly neighbors with weirdly huge tariffs on things like milk and butter (299% tariff on butter—really, Canada?).   Trump’s not blanketing everything with tariffs; he’s pressuring trade partners to lower theirs.   If they do, everybody wins. If they don’t, well, then we have a strategic trade chess game—but still no inflation.   In short, tariffs are about strategy, security, and fairness—not inflation.   Yes, blanket tariffs from the Great Depression era were dumb. Obviously. Today's targeted tariffs? Smart.   Listen to the whole podcast to hear why I think this.   And by the way, if you see a Cybertruck, don’t key it. Robin doesn’t care about your politics; she just likes her weird truck.   Maybe read a good book, relax, and leave cars alone.   (And yes, nobody keys Volkswagens, even though they were basically created by Hitler. Strange world we live in.) Source: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/the-truth-about-tariffs-busting-the-inflation-myth    Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/       
    • No, not if you are comparing apples to apples. What we call “poor” is obviously a pretty high bar but if you’re talking about like a total homeless shambling skexie in like San Fran then, no. The U.S.A. in not particularly kind to you. It is not an abuse so much as it is a sad relatively minor consequence of our optimism and industriousness.   What you consider rich changes with circumstances obviously. If you are genuinely poor in the U.S.A., you experience a quirky hodgepodge of unhelpful and/or abstract extreme lavishnesses while also being alienated from your social support network. It’s about the same as being a refugee. For a fraction of the ‘kindness’ available to you in non bio-available form, you could have simply stayed closer to your people and been MUCH better off.   It’s just a quirk of how we run the place and our values; we are more worried about interfering with people’s liberty and natural inclination to do for themselves than we are about no bums left behind. It is a slightly hurtful position and we know it; we are just scared to death of socialism cancer and we’re willing to put our money where our mouth is.   So, if you’re a bum; you got 5G, the ER will spend like $1,000,000 on you over a hangnail but then kick you out as soon as you’re “stabilized”, the logistics are surpremely efficient, you have total unchecked freedom of speech, real-estate, motels, and jobs are all natural healthy markets in perfect competition, you got compulsory three ‘R’’s, your military owns the sky, sea, space, night, information-space, and has the best hairdos, you can fill out paper and get all the stuff up to and including a Ph.D. Pretty much everything a very generous, eager, flawless go-getter with five minutes to spare would think you might need.   It’s worse. Our whole society is competitive and we do NOT value or make any kumbaya exception. The last kumbaya types we had werr the Shakers and they literally went extinct. Pueblo peoples are still around but they kind of don’t count since they were here before us. So basically, if you’re poor in the U.S.A., you are automatically a loser and a deadbeat too. You will be treated as such by anybody not specifically either paid to deal with you or shysters selling bejesus, Amway, and drugs. Plus, it ain’t safe out there. Not everybody uses muhfreedoms to lift their truck, people be thugging and bums are very vulnerable here. The history of a large mobile workforce means nobody has a village to go home to. Source: https://askdaddy.quora.com/Are-the-poor-people-in-the-United-States-the-richest-poor-people-in-the-world-6   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.