FX Ellioticians

[throughthemud 10]

I trade EUR/USD and GBP/USD using elliott wave analysis. I was wondering who else out here is doing the same thing. Maybe we can compare notes and counts to help keep each other honest.

 

Right now my euro analysis puts us at

Wave (v) of 5 of © ended at 1700 GMT

or

Wave i of (v) of 5 of ©

 

It is satisfactory as all of (v) of 5 because it is .618 x (i) and I count 5 subdivisions.

I'm currently positioned short until my wave count is broken.

[throughthemud 10]

Turns out that was wave i. I was able to get out of the trade with a small profit after it was just an extended wave. There was another very clear wave iii that followed and a somewhat unclear but I think valid wave v.

 

Wave (i) was 177 pips and (v) has been 134 pips or 75% of wave (i). This is close enough for me to believe it's over. A drop below 1.4500 on EUR/USD will confirm this.

 

If that has happened that would be the end of wave 5 of © and the end of primary wave 2 and that means the dollar will shoot back up even higher than it was before.

 

I am again positioned short in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD and I've gained enough pips that I put my stops in at a profit. Since the wave count is not quite clear this could still be wave ii of (v).

[thalestrader 14]

Hi there,

 

Does it make any sense to discuss EW counts and not include an annotated chart displaying the wave count?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[throughthemud 10]

perhaps not. i just figured anyone with sufficient knowledge of elliott waves would be able to see what i'm talking about as long as they are also following the same pair. i will include some charts from here on out.

 

looking at the newest developments 2:22 GMT Monday it appears wave (v) did end and now we're working on downside. looking for confirmation on EUR/USD below 1.4500 and on GBP/USD below 1.6453

[thalestrader 14]

perhaps not. i just figured anyone with sufficient knowledge of elliott waves would be able to see what i'm talking about as long as they are also following the same pair.

 

You would be correct assuming that your count is correct and that all others will be in agreement. I'm not saying that your count is right or wrong, only that there is no basis for discussing different counts and determining valid and probable counts from less valid or less probable without knowing how one has identified each particular swing.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

I am looking forward to seeing your charts and your counts.

 

Thank you,

 

Thales

[throughthemud 10]

we have nonconfirmation on the euro when it went past 1.4634 but i'm still holding out hope until the dollar breaks the count which will be soon anyway if it's going to happen. i'm still quite profitable because of the pound play.

 

the euro made a nonconfirmation of Primary 1 way back on july 15th 2008. i'm hoping this is equivalent to that because the dollar count is clear.

[throughthemud 10]

USD index 9/14 at about 1730 GMT

 

btw my labels are shown as

intermediate degree (1)(2)(3)

minor 1 2 3

minute (i) (ii) (iii)

minuette i ii iii

[throughthemud 10]

I'm looking for turnarounds on the euro at about 1.4655 (wave v equality with wave i) and about 1.4683 (wave (v) equality with wave (i))

 

I do not expect usd index or pound to break their previous counts.

[throughthemud 10]

price action looks too strong. i'm switching targets on eur to 1.4685 and 1.4795 (if 1.4700 is broken)

[throughthemud 10]

price action on euro has been corrective so i'm still looking for another high. pound has been performing as expected. i'll try to get a chart or two up later

[throughthemud 10]

My first target has been hit but after doing some analysis I don't think that could be the high. I think we're currently in wave iv of (v). If this is true then that means wave i and iii of (v) are approximately equal so v could be very strong. If the current movement goes much below the peak of wave i as I have it labeled then the count would be invalidated but I think that would mean just mean the upward movement will be even stronger.

 

Targets

1.4795 is about .618 times waves (i) to (iii)

1.4845 would be equality between (A) and ©

1.4867 would be about 1.618 times wave i and iii as I have it labeled and the base of the movement last September

Edited September 15, 2009 by throughthemud
adding chart

[thalestrader 14]

My first target

 

I am curious as to the role of the three moving averages I see displayed on your chart. How do you use them? In your trading, what relative importance do you give them vis a vis your wave counts?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[throughthemud 10]

I am curious as to the role of the three moving averages I see displayed on your chart. How do you use them? In your trading, what relative importance do you give them vis a vis your wave counts?

 

Thanks for your question. You can ignore the moving averages as they are automatically drawn on fxstreet charts which is where I get the charts I'm labeling from. I do, however, use RSI-7. I need to better identify how this can help me, but as far as my current trading goes I use it to help find the ends of corrective waves and therefore the beginning of impulse waves. Mostly it helps me find the patience to sit through the corrective waves because I tend to overtrade if left with only a price chart in front of me. I will consider this further and maybe throw up a couple charts with it tomorrow.

[throughthemud 10]

i just realized my earlier targets for the euro are all wrong if my wave count is correct! wave 3 is never the shortest which means if my count is correct the euro will start a massive decline before 1.4780. I tried looking for errors in my count but i'm still confident it is correct. the only other possibility I see is that the wave we are currently in is an extension so we will see 2 new highs instead of just 1.

[throughthemud 10]

I created a new thread "Trading GBP/USD with Elliott Waves and RSI" to demonstrate what I was discussing earlier. Please take a look.

[thalestrader 14]

I created a new thread "Trading GBP/USD with Elliott Waves and RSI" to demonstrate what I was discussing earlier. Please take a look.

 

Why not keep it all under one thread?

 

I do appreciate your willing ness to post your counts as price action unfolds rather than after the fact. EW analysis often looks so clear after the fact. It sems much more difficult in real time. I hope you continue contributing. You have a good thread started here - run with it rather than splitting off into multiple threads.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[throughthemud 10]

Thanks for the feedback. I wanted to split that off into another thread so that newcomers won't get lost in this thread as it becomes several pages long. I just recently joined this forum and find it hard to get into the discussion of long standing threads. I'll try to keep most of it in this thread though. EW analysis is difficult in real time but the more you do it the better you get so posting my real time analysis here is helping me out too especially since I can't go back and lie to myself that I was right all along.

 

btw new EUR/USD target ~1.4767 ( wave v equality with wave i )

[throughthemud 10]

i'm looking at immediate downside in the GBP/USD. if the bottom of the triangle is breached. I will look for even more downside otherwise continue to look for more highs

[throughthemud 10]

The downside on GBP/USD is being realized and I wanted to explain my reason for the previous forecast. My two top wave counts show a (b) wave triangle as in the previous chart or a series of 1st and 2nd waves. That means the movement was either wave © or wave i of (iii). In either case it would have been five waves which had just completed when I posted that statement.

 

Now for the immediate future beyond what I stated in my previous post.

 

If the drop is in 5 waves and ends near or below its origin I will not buy it. I will wait for a 3 wave bullish movement and then sell sell sell! because that will signal the start of a much largest bearish movement.

 

On the other hand if the bearish movement is only 3 waves it's time to buy buy buy! and expect much stronger uptrend to above 1.6600.

 

I'm not willing to switch to bearishness yet on the EUR/USD but the waves can be counted as complete and if it is then we can expect a MAJOR change in trend on the primary scale! Not a good time to be bullish unless you're watching it carefully!!!

[throughthemud 10]

I'm having trouble with the idea that the euro would end it's uptrend where it's at now because it would be right at the tip of wave (A). Equality (A) = © (a wave principle guideline) would be at about 1.4846. Also on the monthly chart of EUR/USD RSI-7 is about 67.78 which is not quite oversold but it's getting close. There is also a lot of upper shadows for resistance at around that level. I did more analysis on the intermediate scale to come up with this alternate count that could take us higher. By this count we are in wave v of an extended wave (iii) so we'll top soon, drop to roughly 1.4500 and then make one final push to the top. This would also give the GBP/USD time to make a new high that I've been thinking about but didn't think was possible. In any case I'll keep posting on shorter term plays and watch as things develop.

[throughthemud 10]

Quick post. I just went long on the GBP. I don't feel comfortable with a long play on EUR so I'll wait for it to go up a bit and then short it. I went long on the pound since the current correction looks to be ending and wave c = 0.618 * wave a. I'll add a chart to show what I'm talking about later.

[throughthemud 10]

it's quite obvious the EUR and GBP are in for some immediate gains but I'm still half asleep so I'll get back with charts later

[throughthemud 10]

It appears we are just beginning wave v of a diagonal triangle (in the euro)! This means the end is very near. Last night my price target of 1.4767 was hit. My count shows that to be the top of wave iii of the diagonal triangle. My previous price target of 1.4846 should be the end of the entire movement. I'm holding long and will short at that point. This looks like the major turnaround I was talking about before!

[throughthemud 10]

it's likely we have one more small drop on eur and gbp to complete a 5th wave down