Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Tams

Deficit Estimate To $9 Trillion

Recommended Posts

WOW !!!

 

 

http://247wallst.com/2009/08/22/white-house-deficit-estimate-to-9-trillion-from-7-1-trillion/

 

 

White House Deficit Estimate To $9 Trillion From $7.1 Trillion

 

The Administration quickly and fairly quietly raised its budget deficit forecast for the next ten years to $9 trillion from $7.1 trillion, an astonishing 27% increase.

 

The new estimate is much closer to the number that the Congressional Budget Office posted earlier this year.

 

One of the reasons for the change is that tax receipts are running below estimates due to the recession. The Administration believed unemployment would peak at 8%.

 

The shortfall in government revenue could continue for another year or more. The White House budget forecast robust GDP recovery in 2010 and 2011. Many economists expect the improvement will be closer to 2%. Unemployment will almost certainly remain above 9% next year and perhaps even into early 2011.

 

Tax receipts from businesses are also below forecast. A number of factors, especially weak consumer spending, have hurt many American companies worse than expected.

 

The alternatives for fixing the deficit problem are all bad. One is to raise taxes. A much higher burden on individuals would almost certainly wound a recovery in consumer spending. Higher taxes on enterprises will make it more likely they will cut more workers. It becomes a vicious cycle which ultimately adds to unemployment.

 

Another option is for the treasury to sell more debt. The New York Times recently reported that China’s appetite for US debt is falling. The paper writes “Figures released by the Treasury Department this week indicated that China reduced its holdings of Treasury securities by $25 billion in June, the most China had ever sold in a month.” That only leaves the Treasury one option, which is to offer higher interest rates on bonds. That will push up most other interest rates including those essential to the recovery, particularly mortgages.

 

The only alternative that will work to help the rising red ink is too cut government spending. The Congress and The White House have not shown much interest in that. But, the time is coming when their hands may be forced. That leaves the only open question as which programs will be slashed and which will be preserved.

 

Douglas A. McIntyre

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

attachment.php?attachmentid=13395&stc=1&d=1252860294

 

Big government has always been the response to big failures in big business or military conflicts. After all, no one expects big business to bail out or fight a war for any one - they are in the profit business after all. In the US, it was a string of Republicans and big business bubble in the 20s that brought about the crash of 1929 and subsequent election of FDR and then big government and regulation. The alternative was even greater suffering of the middle and lower economic class.

2009-09-13_124406.gif.5b22a6ff91730a294006d6090f1ff14e.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
it was a string of Republicans and big business bubble in the 20s that brought about the crash of 1929

 

I think you've fallen for the whole republican/democrat b.s. unfortunately. With the above statement, nothing anyone says is goign to affect your bias.

 

Sure, there are real distinctions to be made between the two, dont get me wrong.

 

The government doesn't produce a thing. There is only one way to create wealth, and that is taking a natural resource of some kind and producing a product worth selling. "Big buisiness" or whatever you want to call it actually produces something. The government only takes and takes. Worse off there is no competition, so it has no incentive to spend that money wisely.

 

It doesn't have to worry about going out of buisiness or maintaining profitablility. If it mispends or makes a bad decision(as it always does), it knows it can simply tax it's populace a bit more, via the end of a gun barrel if necessary.

 

The 20s is a subject of great debate. Nothing FDR did pulled the country out of the recession any faster. I'm sure you would disagree? It would be my argument that he prolonged the recession. So the discussion is pointless. Every major government program since the days of FDR has been met with nothing but dissapointment and failure. The government can't really do anything right, and FDR was the catalyst that moved this country away from respecting the constitution and the government adhering to the enumerated powers within. Just about EVERY program the government creates fails, new government programs are only mortgaging future generations paychecks.

 

Government is the leech on society. It consists of people who have no real world experience, and they think it's their responsibility to 'save us from ourselves,' cause we're so stupid to manage ourselves.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I think you've fallen for the whole republican/democrat b.s. unfortunately. With the above statement, nothing anyone says is goign to affect your bias.

 

Sure, there are real distinctions to be made between the two, dont get me wrong.

 

The government doesn't produce a thing. There is only one way to create wealth, and that is taking a natural resource of some kind and producing a product worth selling. "Big business" or whatever you want to call it actually produces something. The government only takes and takes. Worse off there is no competition, so it has no incentive to spend that money wisely.

 

It doesn't have to worry about going out of buisiness or maintaining profitablility. If it mispends or makes a bad decision(as it always does), it knows it can simply tax it's populace a bit more, via the end of a gun barrel if necessary.

 

Government is the leech on society. It consists of people who have no real world experience, and they think it's their responsibility to 'save us from ourselves,' cause we're so stupid to manage ourselves.

 

everything you said about government is also applicable to big business

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
everything you said about government is also applicable to big business

 

I am not wanting to highjack this thread about the deficit, but.....

 

No it's not applicable to big buisiness. You're not seeing the inherent difference. Competition and monopolies! There is no competition with government. It is by nature a monopoly.

 

Also, profit motives. Like I said before, government has no motive to spend money wisely. They have an endless supply of it from us sheeple. And when they don't have enough, they simply take more money from us sheeple at gunpoint via taxes, or print more of it.

 

Big buisiness, no matter how corrupt it gets, it simply cannot run a buisiness the way government runs itself, or it would be OUT of buisiness. And that should be governments role with regards to that. Not to take it over, not to tell them how to conduct buisiness, but as oversight. To make sure big buisiness upholds their bargans they make with the people.

 

Worse off, politicians now run for office like a high school child runs for class presideent. It's not about what you can do, it's about making enough people like you, even if you have no experience what so ever. If you can remove enough people from the payrolls, play the populist game and promise enough handouts, you can own the country as a politician.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the problem there's not really a lot of competition in business.

 

companies take huge profits even after paying ridiculously huge salaries and bonuses to their execs.

 

what happens when they make mistakes? they charge customers more. produce lower quality products, lay people off or THEY TAKE MONEY FROM THE TAX PAYERS! haven't you seen what's been going on?

 

lots of businesses run off credit just like the government does. GM did it and was losing money for about 8 years straight and would've kept going just the same if the credit crisis never happened

 

i agree with your statement following that though. government should be involved in oversight for the most part.

 

politicians are sleaze bags just as you say but a lot of corporate execs are too.

 

i'm in total agreement with you about government but you have turned 100% blind eye to what corporations are doing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
the problem there's not really a lot of competition in business.

 

companies take huge profits even after paying ridiculously huge salaries and bonuses to their execs.

 

what happens when they make mistakes? they charge customers more. produce lower quality products, lay people off or THEY TAKE MONEY FROM THE TAX PAYERS! haven't you seen what's been going on?

 

lots of businesses run off credit just like the government does. GM did it and was losing money for about 8 years straight and would've kept going just the same if the credit crisis never happened

 

i agree with your statement following that though. government should be involved in oversight for the most part.

 

politicians are sleaze bags just as you say but a lot of corporate execs are too.

 

i'm in total agreement with you about government but you have turned 100% blind eye to what corporations are doing.

 

I'm confused? There is plenty of competition in buisiness. That is the nature of buisiness, consumers are allowed to take their buisiness elsewhere. There are plenty of every kind of buisiness offering services. And here is the best part, your wallet does most of the talking! That is not the same with government, if you think Big Buisiness has no competition, how much competition does the government have? ZERO, they have ZERO competition.

 

What does the executive salary have to do with anything? Do you want to fix the wages that someone can earn? And about that, guess who approved the big salaries for the Execs AFTER the latest bailout, it was the government!

 

You asked what happens when the make mistakes and want to charge people more? You take your buisiness elsewhere. They can't force you to retain their services. That's how capitalism works.

 

You say I'm turning my eye, I'm not saying that. I'm saying you can thank government for this crisis in the first place. Fannie/Freddie, you tell me, what was the government's role in that since it's inception? I guarantee you, whenever government attampts to do more than regulate, and actually insert themselves into buisiness, IT WILL RESULT IN FAILURE. Please, name a government run program or institution that has done something useful in the last 100 years?

 

GM is just all together a different story, that was bad run buisiness, it was an insurance company at the end.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

government has plenty of competition you can just move to a different state or country or vote in a different politician.

 

i'm not saying we should fix salaries except perhaps in government entities or companies that got government money but the government didn't approve those salaries anyway. they said we'll just let private industry handle it because we know they'll do that right thing and they gave billions of dollars in bonuses anyway.

 

you can thank government for this crisis because they stopped regulating and just believed the companies would do the right thing on their own.

 

there are plenty of great government programs and their are plenty of great businesses. i can give you tons of examples of horrible businesses and horrible politicians and government programs. what it all comes down to is there's not one simple answer. the government isn't always evil and doesn't always fail and the same is true for business but we should regulate and hold people accountable. 100% government would be a disaster and 0% government would be a disaster. probably still holds true for 20/80

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
government has plenty of competition you can just move to a different state or country or vote in a different politician.

 

i'm not saying we should fix salaries except perhaps in government entities or companies that got government money but the government didn't approve those salaries anyway. they said we'll just let private industry handle it because we know they'll do that right thing and they gave billions of dollars in bonuses anyway.

 

you can thank government for this crisis because they stopped regulating and just believed the companies would do the right thing on their own.

 

there are plenty of great government programs and their are plenty of great businesses. i can give you tons of examples of horrible businesses and horrible politicians and government programs. what it all comes down to is there's not one simple answer. the government isn't always evil and doesn't always fail and the same is true for business but we should regulate and hold people accountable. 100% government would be a disaster and 0% government would be a disaster. probably still holds true for 20/80

 

There is nothing you can do to escape the government, and particularly I am talking about the federal government with regards to all of the problems it creates. And while moving out of the state is an option to escape the local government, there really is nothing you can do to escape the federal government. For the purpose of this discussion, the idea of moving out of the country is a bit silly.

 

Escaping most buisiness is as simple as choosing to give your money to somone else in most cases. And it does not require one to uproot his life and family by moving to another state or out of the country.

 

Actually, the government did approve those latest bonuses. Do you remember all the public outrage, and even from the politicians...... only later to find out that the bonuses where part of the bill the government signed, they just failed to read it obviously..... either that or someone got paid to leave the bonuses in there.

 

Thanking government for the collapse because of under-regulating might be so.... but then again we have government to thank for this latest blunder. There where plenty of politicians calling for the further regulation who shall ramain nameless to avoid turning this into a useless partisian political thread. But let's just say at the time the chairman of the banking committe obviously wasn't interested.

 

And sure we can talk about bad buisinesses...... but guess what? Most of them are allowed to fail! This is the distinction you don't seem to accept? Please, tell me a government program that has been created that has done something useful? Maybe they might have done 1 or 2 things right.... but their track record is horrible with the crap they create.

 

At least the private sector has created millions upon MILLIONS of jobs. The government has not created 1 job! Why? Because it doesn't create anything!! It only takes. Don't think I'm saying government is not needed or useful, as that is not my point. But too much governement is not good, and WHENEVER they put their hands into somethig they screw it up.

 

Government has no incentive to perform well.... other thant he threat of not getting re-elected, and you can fix this by promising enough sheeple things they want.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • Date: 8th April 2025.   Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen     Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.   However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.   In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.   Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.   China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’   Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.   If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.   In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.   Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.   Trump Talks Tough on EU Too   Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’   The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.     Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama   Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.   The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.   Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts   Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.   Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.       Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.   However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.   In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.   Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.   Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist   With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.