Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

dandxg

Question for Urmablume

Recommended Posts

I am not sure if this has been asked........

 

With all the discussion of clamping down on flash orders and such will this make your indicators less valuable?

 

I had been thinking about this because many of your posts/indicators seem to take advantage of micro second imbalances.

 

Dan

 

P.S.

 

I want to thank you again for sharing your concepts/ideas. I look at your indicators, along with a couple of other proprietary ones I have watched real time, and think it's no wonder most will never make it with BB's, MACD, and such.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  dandxg said:
I am not sure if this has been asked........With all the discussion of clamping down on flash orders and such will this make your indicators less valuable?I had been thinking about this because many of your posts/indicators seem to take advantage of micro second imbalances.

Dan P.S. I want to thank you again for sharing your concepts/ideas. I look at your indicators, along with a couple of other proprietary ones I have watched real time, and think it's no wonder most will never make it with BB's, MACD, and such. LOL - your observation is most astute - the fact is - they never did and most likely never will - cheers

 

Dan,

 

Thank you very much for the kind words.

 

Really only one of the indicators I have posted uses such micro time frames and that is our indicator of the bias and magnitude of the intensity of commercial trade.

 

When I studied under Peter Steidlmayer he taught us the importance of locating this trade. In those days pit traders knew the commercials personally and knew that when they put their hands out that there was size business to be done. From palms inward for buys and outward for sells - the bias of this trade was plain for all to see.

 

Yesterday's trade (Monday 24th) completely demonstrated the efficacy of spotting this trade as shown in the charts below. In direct answer to your question - yes I believe that it will continue to be that kind of trade that dominates local extremes and yes I believe that there will continue to be technologies that can spot such trade in a timely manner and allow its users to "join the party" that this trade offers several times each trading session.

 

Today what we call the commercial trade is that trade done by hedge funds, trading houses and others with the power, resources, technology and size to establish local extremes.

 

Our indicator, which several on this forum have been able to successfully reverse engineer, was designed to spot this trade. Its calculation is described as - "When taken in combination, the acceleration and deceleration of buying and selling volumes, total volume and the velocity/rate of change in the balance of trade reveal a certain dynamic that we find present at many, if not most, intra-session extremes."

 

The high of Monday's trade in ES occurred at 0808 PST up 5.5 points from the 0630 open. Note the huge spike in sell biased intense commercial trade that occurred at least 2-3 minutes BEFORE the final tick at the high.

 

monhigh.jpg

 

 

The low of Monday's trade occurred a little over 4 hours later at 1221 and 13.75 points lower and was pre-indicated by another, even bigger, spike in commercial intensity - this time on the buy side and it came plenty early to get trades in.

 

monlow.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi UB,

 

Thanks for the charts.

As you know trade managment is very important. I rarely hear you mention how you manage these trades. for example are you exiting on same signal that causes you to intiate the trade or scaling out...etc. can you explain.

 

Miday I went long ES at 1028.25 around 1020 ish... I was only able to get a couple of point before exiting, even though it went farther. So trade entry is one thing milking the trade is entirely different subject and this is why I ask the above.

 

 

thanks

Edited by Mustang-

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  Mustang- said:
Hi UB,Thanks for the charts. As you know trade managment is very important. I rarely hear you mention how you manage these trades. for example are you exiting on same signal that causes you to intiate the trade or scaling out...etc. can you explain.Miday I went long ES at 1028.25 around 1020 ish... I was only able to get a couple of point before exiting, even though it went farther. So trade entry is one thing milking the trade is entirely different subject and this is why I ask the above.thanks

 

Thanks for the thanks.

 

While of course you are right that trade managment is very important - it is always easier to manage a trade that has been well and precisely entered.

 

Our indicator of biased commercial intensity is one of our more heavily weighted entry qualifiers. After entry we use such indicators as our indexes of weighted biases in multiple volume/time time frames to keep us "in synch with the legs inside the legs."

 

Here is a shot of that index overlaid with price on an 8k chart of ES. As it leads price in most instances it is possible to apply this all the way down to the 1k level and take the legs and profits as indicated by the higher level biases and executed according to the lowest level biases - helps catch the overlap.

 

leading.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UrmaBlume

 

Great explanation with charts

 

Have a question: attached 5min charts of Russell, Dax

 

Here you will observe there are spikes in vol at price levels where sellers are overwhelming the bars and when these levels are tested again there are obviously not many buyers left, hence providing high probability short opportunities.

 

Recognise that more time has elapsed on these charts, however these opportunities can be recognised without resorting to breaking down the vol into sell or buy vol.

 

Would you care to elaborate on this aspect, since you obviously have more inside knowledge on the workings of volume relative to price.

DAX.png.877e135943fe89cdfa6cb5bb8dd58da4.png

RUSSELL.png.85dd2dc98153799a1fd802bd5c8701db.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Shamal and Urmablume,

Please correct me on what I'm missing. Shamal, I believe that while you're correct that high volume spikes on time based bars can show moments of capitulation and subsequent turns in the markets, to turn this information into a viable/actionable/successful trade has it's challenges in the realtime arena. This is where the precision analysis that Urmablume and friends-that I'm just beginning to ponder-comes in, and provides more mechanical precision in entering and exiting. When big "size" is on the line, this kind of precision is probably a real ally.

 

In looking at your charts, the first 5min DAX chart, from my little exploration into VSA, I can say okay, ultra high volume coming in on an up move that closed in the middle with an very wide spread (supply overhead), this occuring at 15:00 and after a brief upward rally (potential turnaround), and I could also say: "I'll wait for a no demand low volume test or maybe an upthrust to confirm (or better both :-)) this potential weakness and enter the market short. We get that "no demand" bar 2 bars after the ultra high volume (kind of combined with an upthrust feature), and I could say I'd enter short on the close of that bar. And, although this commentary is all hindsight and hindsight in trading is both 20/20 but also "Fantasy", so although all that is hindsight, technically I'd be following preset rules of VSA looking for certain high volume and subsequent low volume and certain features in price ranges for my entry...and maybe the trade would work out.

 

This might work for me and my 4 lot trading reality. However, if I'm a bigger fish, trading 100-500 lots, this kind of mental guess work interpreting the time bars and the volume bars is not going to give me enough confidence to enter that trade. But, what if I could spot the trail of very big fish establishing a campaign to take the market down, and this trail has more data variables than just simple volume over 5min (such as trade speed, certain patterns in the tape, certain patterns as in less variability in the amount of DepthOfMarket of lower bid orders--i.e. very big fish preparing to receive sell orders below the market) than just simple volume over 5min, to give me a fine grained continuum of confident-to-work to less-likely-to-work...all of this would give me much more confidence to pull the trigger or sit aside...and all of this needs the assistance of a computer to establish an interpretation that is actionable, especially with size on the line.

 

Okay, I'm looking forward to Urma and the more experienced to step in and correct me and fill in the blanks. Thanks again to all for such a wonderfully rich forum. Urma thanks again in advance for your presence here and your willingness to share. -best wishes and prosperous trading, Brian

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

quick, addition, that I just thought of. Another benefit to the sophisticated analysis is being able to take advantage of good opportunities (entries) more often. On the 5 min chart with volume analysis, we're waiting for certain conditions to present themselves to confirm entry/exit, this might've taken 15-25 minutes all together on the Dax chart. However, if we were able to track institutional sentiment more precisely perhaps entries would be possible that just seem too quick to react too on the 5 minute, ultimately permitting us to take more meat out of the market. just some thoughts.:cool:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 4th April 2025.   USDJPY Falls to 25-Week Low as Safe Havens Surge and Markets Eye NFP Data.   Safe haven currencies and the traditional alternative to the US Dollar continue to increase in value while the Dollar declines. Investors traditionally opt to invest in the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc at times of uncertainty and when they wish to avoid the Dollar. The Japanese Yen continues to be the best-performing currency of the week and of the day. Will this continue to be the case after today’s US employment figures?   USDJPY - NFP Data And Trade Negotiations The USDJPY is currently trading at a 25-week low and is witnessing one of its strongest declines this week. The exchange rate is no longer obtaining indications from the RSI that the price is oversold. The current bullish swing is obtaining indications of divergence as the price fails to form a higher high. Therefore, short-term momentum is in favour of the US Dollar, but there are still signs the Japanese Yen can regain momentum quickly.       USDJPY 1-Hour Chart     The price movement of the exchange rate in both the short and long term will depend on 3 factors. Today’s US employment data, next week’s inflation rate and most importantly the progress of negotiations between the US and trade partners. If today’s Unemployment Rate increases above 4.1%, the reading will be the highest seen so far in 2025. Currently, the market expects the Unemployment Rate to remain at 4.1% and the Non-Farm Payroll Change to add 137,000 jobs. The average NFP reading this year so far has been 194,000.   If data does not meet expectations, US investors may continue to increase exposure away from the Dollar and to other safe-haven assets. Previously investors were expecting only 2 rate cuts this year from the Federal Reserve, however, most investors now expect up to 4. If today’s employment data deteriorates, economists advise the Federal Reserve may opt to cut interest rates sooner.   Therefore, it is important to note that today’s NFP will influence the USDJPY to a large extent. Whereas in the longer-term, trade negotiations will steal the spotlight. If trade partners are able to negotiate the US Dollar can correct back upwards. Whereas, if other countries retaliate and do not negotiate the US Dollar will remain weak.   USDJPY - The Yen and the Bank of Japan The Japanese Yen is the best-performing currency in 2025 increasing by 6.70% so far. Risk indicators such as the VIX and High-Low Indexes continue to worsen which is positive for the JPY as a safe haven currency.   Yesterday Japan released March business activity data that came in weaker than expected: the Services PMI dropped from 53.7 to 50.0, while the Composite PMI fell from 52.0 to 48.9. The data is the lowest in two years. These figures could hinder further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. However, most economists still expect the Bank Of Japan to hike at least once more. It's also important to note, that even if the BOJ opts for a prolonged pause, a cut is not likely.   Additionally, a 24% tariff was imposed on Japanese exports to the US yesterday. Prime Minister Mr Ishiba expressed disappointment over Japan's failure to secure a tariff exemption and pledged support measures to help domestic industries manage the impact.   Key Takeaway Points: US Dollar Weakens, Safe Havens Rise: The Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc continue to gain as investors shift away from the US Dollar. USDJPY Under Pressure: USDJPY trades at a 25-week low, with short-term momentum favouring the Dollar but long-term trends pointing to potential Yen strength. NFP and Unemployment Crucial: Today’s Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment figures will heavily influence short-term USDJPY. On the other hand, trade negotiations will dictate longer-term trends. Japan Faces Mixed Signals: Despite weak PMI data and new US tariffs, the Japanese Yen remains strong. Economists expect at least one more rate hike from the Bank of Japan, but no cuts are in sight. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • YUM Yum Brands stock, nice breakout with volume +34.5%, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?YUM
    • Date: 3rd April 2025.   Gold Prices Pull Back After Record High as Traders Eye Trump’s Tariffs.   Key Takeaways:   Gold prices retreated after hitting a record high of $3,167.57 per ounce due to profit-taking. President Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports, escalating trade tensions. Gold remains exempt from reciprocal tariffs, reinforcing its safe-haven appeal. Investors await US non-farm payroll data for further market direction. Fed rate cut bets and weaker US Treasury yields underpin gold’s bullish outlook. Gold Prices Retreat from Record Highs Amid Profit-Taking Gold prices saw a pullback on Thursday as traders opted to take profits following a historic surge. Spot gold declined 0.4% to $3,122.10 per ounce as of 0710 GMT, retreating from its fresh all-time high of $3,167.57. Meanwhile, US gold futures slipped 0.7% to $3,145.00 per ounce, reflecting broader market uncertainty over economic and geopolitical developments.   The recent rally was largely fueled by concerns over escalating trade tensions after President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping new import tariffs. The 10% baseline tariff on all goods entering the US further deepened the global trade conflict, intensifying investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold. However, as traders locked in gains from the surge, prices saw a modest retracement.   Trump’s Tariffs and Their Market Implications On Wednesday, Trump introduced a sweeping tariff policy imposing a 10% baseline duty on all imports, with significantly higher tariffs on select nations. While this move was aimed at bolstering domestic manufacturing, it sent shockwaves across global markets, fueling inflation concerns and heightening trade war fears.   Gold’s Role Amid Trade War Escalations Despite the widespread tariff measures, the White House clarified that reciprocal tariffs do not apply to gold, energy, and ‘certain minerals that are not available in the US’. This exemption suggests that central banks and institutional investors may continue favouring gold as a hedge against economic instability. One of the key factors supporting gold is the slowdown that these tariffs could cause in the US economy, which raises the likelihood of future Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold is currently in a pure momentum trade. Market participants are on the sidelines and until we see a significant shakeout, this momentum could persist.   Impact on the US Dollar and Bond Yields Gold prices typically move inversely to the US dollar, and the latest developments have pushed the dollar to its weakest level since October 2024. Market participants are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate cut, as the tariffs could weigh on economic growth.   Additionally, US Treasury yields have plummeted, reflecting growing recession fears. Lower bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it a more attractive investment.         Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch Gold’s recent rally has pushed it into overbought territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70. This indicates a potential short-term pullback before the uptrend resumes. The immediate support level lies at $3,115, aligning with the Asian session low. A further decline could bring gold towards the $3,100 psychological level, which has previously acted as a strong support zone. Below this, the $3,076–$3,057 region represents a critical weekly support range where buyers may re-enter the market. In the event of a more significant correction, $3,000 stands as a major psychological floor.   On the upside, gold faces immediate resistance at $3,149. A break above this level could signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a retest of the record high at $3,167. If bullish momentum persists, the next target is the $3,200 psychological barrier, which could pave the way for further gains. Despite the recent pullback, the broader trend remains bullish, with dips likely to be viewed as buying opportunities.   Looking Ahead: Non-Farm Payrolls and Fed Policy Traders are closely monitoring Friday’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, which could provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. A weaker-than-expected jobs report may strengthen expectations for an interest rate cut, further boosting gold prices.   Other key economic data releases, such as jobless claims and the ISM Services PMI, may also impact market sentiment in the short term. However, with rising geopolitical uncertainties, trade tensions, and a weakening US dollar, gold’s safe-haven appeal remains strong.   Conclusion: While short-term profit-taking may trigger minor corrections, gold’s long-term outlook remains bullish. As global trade tensions mount and the Federal Reserve leans toward a more accommodative stance, gold could see further gains in the months ahead.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • AMZN Amazon stock, nice buying at the 187.26 triple+ support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?AMZN
    • DELL Dell Technologies stock, good day moving higher off the 90.99 double support area, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?DELL
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.