Morning Breeze Strategy

[feb2865 10]

Please see the atachement

 

Regards

 

Raul

Morning Brezze Strategy.doc

[MrPaul 10]

Raul,

 

Thank you for putting this into an easy to understand document! I have begun to backtest and have found that it is a profitable method indeed. An interesting thing I have noticed is that more ofthen than not, if the Market is able to push through the H/L and complete a candle by a meaningful degree, it can pullback deeply and still end up closing above/below the breakout (basically following the initial direction) by the close of the day. That to me was very interesting...Back to more testing...

[feb2865 10]

Thank you Paul

 

wow!!! I have never thougth about it. Excellent observation Paul.

 

If you have any questions don't hesitate to ask...

 

Raul

[Soultrader 12]

Thank you very much Raul. Very kind of you to share it with us. I have a question for you.

 

Do you take the 15minute bar from 9:15 to 9:30 am? Or is this a strategy based on the opening 15minute breakout?

 

I ran a quick backtest (need to do more) and found this very effective (9:15 to 9:30 bar) but a very fast trade good for 10 points most of the time. At times the markets do indeed take off in the direction of the breakout but can be very hard to capture the move since I would look for a quick 10 points. Will need to run some more backtests... thanks though

[torero 10]

Thanks for sharing, Raul. The advice is worth as much gold as the system itself. (what can I say, I'm sucker for inspirational stories).

 

I find the only way to determine momentum since it's so important is using 2 charts: one 15min and a 100 tick chart, and synch them to see how fast the breakout take place. This is for backtesting historical data. But I'm going to watch for a while in real time to determine what is acceptable pace of momentum before making an entry. Raul, hope you can talk us through in chat room. Thanks again.

[feb2865 10]

Hi James

 

I hope you're feeling better by now. Yes I take the bar from 9:15-9:30

 

Torero

 

100 tick charts sounds like a good idea to me. I use 15 and 5 minutes charts for backtesting The more accurate you can gauge momemtum, the better will be. Feel free to add any input.

 

Remember, the core of this strategy is momentum

 

I want you guys to really backtest this strategy to the extreme. Take your time

 

Think about this: If all your trades can be done in 1/2 hour...instead of waiting the whole morning /afternoon bitting your nails hoping to see if the market cross over/bounce any significant level. In my opinion it will have a significant impact on the emotional side of trading. Plus will make you $$$$$

 

That's why I want you guys to backtest it real good. Make sure you know what you're doing.

 

Overnigth trading simply put is money for us to be taken. But you have to be fast.

 

see you guys in the morning

 

Raul

[Soultrader 12]

Thanks Raul... still very feverish but feeling somewhat better. I havent been this sick in years.

 

I dont use any type of momentum indicator and would like to ask if the flow of the tape is enough to judge momentum? Let's say the breakout occured to the downside with enough 10+ lots (for YM) on the bid, would this be enough momentum to confirm this breakout strategy?

 

I like to watch for size and the flow on the tape. Usually if the tape is rolling fast, this indicates a potential move in either direction. As the tape slows down, price tends to become choppy and I look to exit (if im in a position) or remain flat.

[TinGull 10]

Once again, Raul, THANKS!!!!

[namstrader 10]

Thanks Raul, your personal story is very inspirational. A breakout setup for the toolbox, and most importantly, is being able to breakout from all the warnings and lack of confidence.

[carter 10]

Very interesting strategy feb. I never traded currencies but will look into this. Thanks

[Gav 10]

Thanks for sharing.

 

Kevin Ho, one of guest lecturer at LBR group has a similar strategy.

You may find the document here

 

Have a great weekend.

 

Gav

[feb2865 10]

My pleasure guys

 

I sincerely hope you could be profitable using this strategy

 

Please do your homework before put this in action. I know I sound like a broken record but as simple as it looks takes time to digest. Once you do your homework (backtesting) then practice on paper for a while or if you don't like paper trading go with 1 contract at the time

 

Time, patience and practice will make you master this strategy.

 

By the way , today 11/10/2006 probably was the worst day for this strategy I have seen in years. But if you look closely the market did the morning breeze.

 

go from 15 minutes charts/5 minutes charts and 100 ticks(thanks Torero) for you to see what I meant.

 

Any strategy, method, etc, is made as a general fingerprint for all to see. You have to create your own twist on this or any strategy for that matter. As long as you don't considerably distort the heart of the strategy, or use it in some other markets like energies or softs, you'll be allrigth.

 

I am like a sparrow stealing eggs from an eagle's nest. It's my style of trading on indices. You don't have to follow my footsteps. The strategy was designed to make a quick buck(heavy loaded once you get experience) yes, but notice than once the market establish a direction off the breakout, most often than not keeps going that way, usually in the morning.

 

Raul

[feb2865 10]

Thanks for sharing.

 

Kevin Ho, one of guest lecturer at LBR group has a similar strategy.

You may find the document here

 

Have a great weekend.

 

Gav

 

Gav

 

Thanks a lot for posting this link

 

Similar on what I have posted indeed. Makes one feel good whenever some other traders comfirms your views on trading.

 

Regards

 

Raul

[Soultrader 12]

Hi Raul,

 

Once you draw the high and low off the 15minute bar, do you use the 100tick bar to gauge momentum of the breakout? Im curious on your methods on watching momentum for the break. I would still prefer the tape but would be interested in combining another method. Thanks

[feb2865 10]

Hi Raul,

 

Once you draw the high and low off the 15minute bar, do you use the 100tick bar to gauge momentum of the breakout? Im curious on your methods on watching momentum for the break. I would still prefer the tape but would be interested in combining another method. Thanks

 

James

 

if you could measure momentum via tape reading, you'll be in a better position than me for sure. I watch momentum on bars beacuse througth the years looking so much and too long at the screen my vision is not as good as it use to be(don't anybody dare that is the aging process.....LOL).For some reason the tape gives me headache. It's easier for me to use the bars.

I am going to look into 100 tick bars as Torero suggested.

 

James, this is a quick-draw trade. The overnigth money is there for the taking. My suggestion is not too look at many things as you could get distracted from the move. Use the necessary and if is possibe the minimal trading tools and go for the killing.

 

I wrote about not looking at the tape 'cause many people like to incorporate may tools into this strategy and what happen is that very often they miss the bus.

 

Maybe 15 min charts 100 tick charts and the tape will do. Try that combination and let me know

 

If I could use the tape I would

 

Raul

[Soultrader 12]

Thanks Raul. Ill definitely keep you posted on this strategy if I find anything new. Im probably going to start looking at it with the tick charts... possibly 100, not sure yet. It seems like momentum is ultra key to the strategies success and I will need to get good at this opening setup.

[feb2865 10]

Thanks Raul. Ill definitely keep you posted on this strategy if I find anything new. Im probably going to start looking at it with the tick charts... possibly 100, not sure yet. It seems like momentum is ultra key to the strategies success and I will need to get good at this opening setup.

 

Momentum is all about practice. Once you get the rythm, you're in. Believe me it's not complicated. I am sure you'll get the hang of it pretty quick.

 

My problem with the tape is the size of the numbers in my chart package. If you have any idea how I can get somethin bigger, please let me know

 

Raul

[torero 10]

my strategy is if 100 tick bars complete quickly than there seems to be pace and momentum toward a particular direction. But this is just my way of doing it and I'm comfortable with it. I'll let you know how it goes.

[Soultrader 12]

Hi Raul,

 

TS charting package comes with the option to change the font size on the time of sales. Im quite surprised to see your platform does not have that.

 

Torero,

 

Please keep me informed on how the 100 tick charts work out. Im going to be testing this with several other tick charts as well. Will also test this on the YM. I will keep you posted.

[wrines 10]

Maybe I'm just dense, but I can't seem to make this work out via visual/manual backtesting consistently on the ER2 - at least not without huge drawdowns on the myriad reversals...what are you guys using (time frames) to test this? Has anyone tried coding it in TS easylanguage? Ant where are you?

 

Feb, you mention "momentum" and "pace" of the breakout, and from looking at it, I can see that clearly some breakouts are easily spotted and some arent, that is, many breakout but reverse quickly. On the tick charts I have been trying to find an indicator that somehow conveys to us the "speed" a candle took to complete, and one possiblity is eKam's "hesitation" indicator - I have attched it here.

W

20036222324_EKAMHESITATION.ELD

[feb2865 10]

Maybe I'm just dense, but I can't seem to make this work out via visual/manual backtesting consistently on the ER2 - at least not without huge drawdowns on the myriad reversals...what are you guys using (time frames) to test this? Has anyone tried coding it in TS easylanguage? Ant where are you?

 

Feb, you mention "momentum" and "pace" of the breakout, and from looking at it, I can see that clearly some breakouts are easily spotted and some arent, that is, many breakout but reverse quickly. On the tick charts I have been trying to find an indicator that somehow conveys to us the "speed" a candle took to complete, and one possiblity is eKam's "hesitation" indicator - I have attched it here.

W

 

wrines

 

Please, if you can, send me a copy of the charts you're using and tell me exactly how you're backtesing. Price will sometimes break the range but doesn't have enough juice and then retraces.

 

line up your possible entries on the charts.

 

Also send me some forex charts.

 

I'll take a closer look to see what's going on

 

 

Regards

 

Raul

[MrPaul 10]

Thanks for sharing.

 

Kevin Ho, one of guest lecturer at LBR group has a similar strategy.

You may find the document here

 

Have a great weekend.

 

Gav

 

Here is the direct link if anyone doesn't want to sign up as a guest to view

 

http://www.lbrgroup.com/images///tooI_kelvin1.pdf

[torero 10]

mrpaul, when using the tick charts, you have to monitor the time it takes to complete a bar. This is crucial. For example, on 100 tick, the bars should finished within 1 min or even quicker. Backtesting it I read the timeline below for clues to the pace of the action. But as I said, best way is to observe it live until you get an idea what pace is acceptable to get in.

[wrines 10]

Raul,

I have attached my chart from this morning. It is in TS.

15 minute, 5 minute, and 500 tick are used (which normally takes 1-2 minutes to complete a bar). This is exactly what I am talking about. The price pierces the high of the 9:30 15 min bar range at 9:31 but reverse right after a .70 gain, and drops almost 3 points before coming back again at 9:41. In hindsight, the better play would be to ignore that pierce of the high, and instead short the low of 770.70 - then there IS an easy and relatively quick point to be had. But again, HOW on earth do you know this as it happens? Thanks!

W

[wrines 10]

ok - here is the pic again - had to zip it

breeze.zip