Trend Change or Retracement

[aquarian1 10]

I have a question I am looking for help on.

 

Has someone found a reliable indicator, or combination of indicators, or some other way, that from their personal trading experience can tell if an intra day direction change is a trend change as opposed to a retracement?

 

To explain my question further, some days the first leg is down, it retraces, and then the second leg is down, that is Leg2 is in the same direction as Leg1. On other days, the first leg is down and then it reverses trend and the remainder of the day is an uptrend.

 

I have included a 5 min chart of Friday 24 July 2009 for the ESU9 (S&P emini Sep 09) contract, as an example (all times are CT).

 

From 972 at 8:40am it fell to 962.50 at 9:56 (marked point A). From A it rose to 971 at 10:59 or +8.5 pts in 63 min (point B). A to B I am calling Leg1.

 

Next it retrace to 968.75 at 12:05 or –2.25 pts in 66 mins (point C). Then it rises to 979 @ 15:14 or +10.25 in 189 mins (point D). From C to D I am calling Leg2.

 

In this example point A marks a Trend Change with the balance of the day now upward.

 

So in reference to this graph, my question is:

“At point A is there a way to tell that the balance of the day will be up?”

In other words:

“Is there a way to tell if point A will be marking the beginning of a retracement, that the next leg after the retracement will be down, that is in the same direction as 972 to 962.50, or is it a intra day trend change?”

 

I would note that one book waits until it has risen from A and it continues to rise beyond 61.8% or 968.25 and if it does then a trend change has taken place and the rise is not a retracement. (972-962.5 = 9.5*.618 = 5.75+962.5 =>968.25 = 61.8%.) I am looking for an answer at point A so this “if it retraces more than 61.8% it is a trend change” is not the answer I am looking for.

 

Thank-you to all.

[DbPhoenix 42]

 

So in reference to this graph, my question is:

“At point A is there a way to tell that the balance of the day will be up?”

In other words:

“Is there a way to tell if point A will be marking the beginning of a retracement, that the next leg after the retracement will be down, that is in the same direction as 972 to 962.50, or is it a intra day trend change?”

 

Sure. Though you may find the price action easier to see if you remove all of the extraneous indicators, etc.

 

 

 

 

If you're interested in pursuing this, click here.

[Tams 20]

I have a question I am looking for help on.

Has someone found a reliable indicator, or combination of indicators, or some other way, that from their personal trading experience can tell if an intra day direction change is a trend change as opposed to a retracement?

...

Thank-you to all.

 

 

The volume will give you a clue...

[thalestrader 14]

I have a question I am looking for help on.

 

Has someone found a reliable indicator, or combination of indicators, or some other way, that from their personal trading experience can tell if an intra day direction change is a trend change as opposed to a retracement?

 

The only indicator that will tell you what you wish to know is already on your chart, but you have so many useless indicators sharing space with it that you have distorted it nearly beyond recognition, and certainly beyond usefulness.

 

If you're interested in pursuing this, click

here.

[/center]

 

If I were you, I'd follow Db's link and forget anything anyone else, including myself, might post. I would stop searching for a magic indicator, and for the next several weeks or months, devote myself to studying the material to which DB is directing you. But that is me. And I already know how to use the indicator that you wish to be able to read. Here is your chance to learn to use it as well.

 

And do take Db's advice, clean up your chart. You have so many indicators that you distort the only indicator that matters - Price!

 

Yes, price is the only indicator that leads itself. Always. And without exception.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[ehorn 10]

The volume will give you a clue...

 

+1 for this - Volume (more accurately the sequences of volume leading price) is a leading indicator of price and trends (whether price is moving in a non-dominant direction (retrace) or dominant. IMHO, using price alone to determine a trend (dominance) is akin to gambling.

 

As a wise man once said...

 

"Price Action is a vendor induced fad and the dog will not hunt ultimately simply because it is not systematic. Meaning, there is no complete structure, no complete process and it is not possible the get results from the incomplete structure and process."

 

Best wishes

[DbPhoenix 42]

As a wise man once said...

 

Wise? Price action has been central to the auction market since the first Sumerian traded his first pot, if not before. Remarks such as these serve only to detour the beginner down paths that will waste his time and his money, perhaps for years.

[ehorn 10]

... Remarks such as these serve only to detour the beginner down paths that will waste his time and his money, perhaps for years.

 

Here is another quote I am fond of:

 

"Even if it were possible to prevent the gullible from being led down the garden path, one would first have to determine what is or is not a garden path, then determine who is or is not qualified to prevent the gullible from walking it"

 

Though I am unable to validate the wisdom of its author.

Edited July 26, 2009 by ehorn
spelling

[thalestrader 14]

Remarks such as these serve only to detour the beginner down paths that will waste his time and his money, perhaps for years.

 

I agree, Db. And there is now tolerated an entire thread here at TL that serves no other purpose than to so detour the novice down such a detrimental path.

 

I've been down a few such paths myself and wasted more money and more years than ever should have been allowed, both by myself and my "guru-mentors."

 

My advice to the original poster is this: Dedicate yourself to removing all indicators from you chart and spend two and half months really focusing on learning to read price action. If, after two and half months of studying price you are still unable to trade profitably, then you either do not have the ability to read price (which is doubtful, even a child can tell up from down from sideways), or (and this is more likely) you are psychologically unfit for trading, and you must seek to understand how your fear is controlling your trading rather than your knowledge of price action, and learn then to control your fear.

 

Or, you can continue with your clutter of indicators, and perhaps be pulled into one Guru's Den or another's, and two and half years from now you will still bemoan the fact that after two and a half years you still do not have the right indicator or that you still do not understand your Guru's "wisdom."

 

 

The credible in the trading world offer you freedom, by demonstrating a self-sufficient approach to profiting from anticipated price moves. Learn to read price action, and you will not need to follow a Guru from internet forum to internet forum. You will be free, and you will need only a sufficient capital deposited into a trading account, a computer with an internet connection, and a chart.

 

It is up to each one individually. You will have to determine for yourself the credible from the incredible.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited July 26, 2009 by thalestrader
spelling

[atto 20]

"Price Action is a vendor induced fad and the dog will not hunt ultimately simply because it is not systematic. Meaning, there is no complete structure, no complete process and it is not possible the get results from the incomplete structure and process."

As you obviously agree with this quote, I encourage you to explore price outside of these confines you have put it in ("vendor induced fad", "not possible to get results"). These qualities are inherently false, as myself and many others have discovered the practical and structural elements of trading price.

 

The Wyckoff forum is completely free and contains the structure and process to understand price and the auction, and how to trade successfully with this understanding. No fancy software to buy, no products to vend. Additionally, and probably more importantly, people are doing it. Real money, live trades, actual results.

 

If Wyckoff doesn't resonate with you (which is fine), there are other price methodologies here. Thales has posted many live trades of simply buying and selling support/resistance breaks. It can be quite simple -- even a kid could do it.

[ehorn 10]

I have a question I am looking for help on.

 

Has someone found a reliable indicator, or combination of indicators, or some other way, that from their personal trading experience can tell if an intra day direction change is a trend change as opposed to a retracement?

 

Thank-you to all.

 

Hello aquarian1,

 

You have made a very good inquiry. It is a foundational question to a beginning of understanding how markets operate. I believe Tams has provided you the leading market variable for the answer to your question. I will expand on the application of volume information and its use that I have found to be true and has greatly contributed to my understanding of how markets operate.

 

IMO, the most reliable indicator for determining these beginnings and endings (trends) is price and volume. But moreso volume. Used together these present a formidable combination that allow the trader to see how the market operates and migrates from trend to trend. All trends have the same beginning and ending. The fundamental principle of determining whether price is moving in a dominant direction or non-dominant (retrace) is volume and the sequences that volume undergo to produce price movement and a trend.

 

Volume is not a static variable just as price is not static. The sequences of volume are sometimes explained with a simple notation:

 

(B2B 2R 2B) - Where the Dominant Trend is up

(R2R 2B 2R) - Where the Dominant Trend is down

 

 

or X2X 2Y 2X - when viewed on a time scale it would appear as diagonal volume rays tracking the movement of volume like this:

 

\ / \ / where /=X and \=Y; so applying this to our Dominant Trend we can see that for an up trend we will see the following behavior:

 

A new trend is established with decreasing black volume (\B) as it approaches the existing resistance point (Trendline). Price then breaks out of this resistance on increasing volume (/B; now B2B in the sequence). Once this occurs and is completed, price will begin its retrace which is signified by (\R; now 2R in the sequence) and then return to dominance (/B; now 2B in the sequence) - B2B 2R 2B.

 

All Markets are fractal in nature and this sequence (X2X 2y 2X) occurs on all fractals. All fractals undergo these sequences as the market forms trends within trends within trends. When all of these sequences have completed on all fractals the existing trend is extinguished and a new trend forms.

 

Many people choose to ignore this truism. Truth can be intolerable at times.

 

Best wishes.

Edited July 26, 2009 by ehorn

[DbPhoenix 42]

 

Many people choose to ignore this truism. Truth can be intolerable at times.

 

 

And I'm sure that ehorn will be delighted to demonstrate the "truth" of all of this to you in real time in our chat room.

 

Until then, keep your wallet in your pants.

[ehorn 10]

And I'm sure that ehorn will be delighted to demonstrate the "truth" of all of this to you in real time in our chat room.

 

Until then, keep your wallet in your pants.

 

LOL! Anyone is free to explore the concepts at their own convenience and make a determination if the information presented is valuable or not.

 

I have seen statistics approaching 4:1 which deny the facts represented in my post. In trading - it is good to be on the side of the minority.

 

Have a nice day

[DbPhoenix 42]

LOL! Anyone is free to explore the concepts at their own convenience and make a determination if the information presented is valuable or not.

 

LOL indeed. Why am I not surprised?

 

Like I said aquarian, keep your wallet in your pants.

[ehorn 10]

...Why am I not surprised?

 

Many people are successful applying many techniques to trading. It is clear (and no surprise) that you and others do not agree with and/or have not experienced success or found value in the application of price/volume relationship. I am not compelled to try to convince you or anyone else of its efficacy. But I (as are you) are compelled to provide a response to the OP's inquiry (which is a great one) based on our own personal experiences and conclusions. Those experiences are clearly reflected in our differing responses.

 

With that - It is my personal experience that the principles are effective in giving a trader the tools needed to understand how markets operate and this information can be used to trade effectively and I am personally satisfied with the results it produces. You would disagree with this assertion (again, no surprise).

 

In civil discussions - It is ok (with me) that folks agree to disagree

 

Best wishes

[atto 20]

Many people are successful applying many techniques to trading. It is clear (and no surprise) that you and others do not agree with and/or have not experienced success or found value in the application of price/volume relationship.

Most definitely. For example, I had no consistent and prolonged success with indicators. Is that to say that someone else cannot? Of course not. Through trial and error, instruction, and dumb luck I have formed a methodology that (1) makes sense and (2) beats the pants off of anything else I have tried.

 

The issue that many people have is that while a specific methodology is "free", it requires the investment of hundreds (and at times, thousands) of hours, with no bona fide end.

 

Since you're compelled to share the insights you have gained, I think we'd all benefit from some hard right, real time action. No, you're not obligated to do anything. But offering some real time analysis would greatly influence many of our perceptions, as well as offer newbies something tangible to hold on to. I personally would never invest an incredible amount of time into a method that had unsure real time results.

 

The TL chat room is an excellent place to share this kind of stuff. I have nothing to prove, but I do enjoy hanging out there and sharing many of my own trades. And as the regulars will tell you, I'm not always "right" (and that's perfectly okay). We'd love if you (and your friends) would drop by and share what volume's saying. Or, if the chat room would be too much of a distraction, do some longer term analysis of an index (since your method works on any timeframe, provided sufficient liquidity and volume).

[thalestrader 14]

With that - It is my personal experience that the principles are effective in giving a trader the tools needed to understand how markets operate and this information can be used to trade effectively and I am personally satisfied with the results it produces.

 

The problem, ehorn, is that no one who claims to have found success with your Jack Hershey Method has ever demonstrated to anyone anywhere in real time that such success is indeed enjoyed.

 

I have asked for just such a demonstration. But nothing of the sort ever came from you or your fellow method members.

 

Likewise, Db has more than implied above that you or Spydertrader or Jack Hershey himself would be more than welcome to make an appearance in the TL chat room and provide a real time demonstration of your method. But I doubt you any other member of your gang will prove himself willing to provide that demonstration.

 

Isn't it enough for you just to continue to post your charts in your own thread each day at 4:15 EDT telling your followers how well you did that day? Must you now troll all over TL for fresh victims? I say victims, because until your method is demonstrated at the proverbial hard right edge of the chart, you are indeed victimizing those whom you induce to commit their time and capital to learning this method. And you do induce them. You do so by asserting that your method allows for the absolute predictability as to where price is going to be and, if I'm not mistaken, when it is going to get there.

 

You mock those who acknowledge trading as a game of probabilities. You promise your students certainty. If your method really allowed one to predict price, as you claim, rather than merely anticipate price, then you should have no fear of your ability to put on quite an impressive show.

 

Believe me, if you or one of your followers would actually demonstrate your method in such a way as to validate the claims made on its behalf, I would readily be willing to change my opinion concerning your method, and to do so publically.

 

 

 

-Thales

[Tams 20]

And I'm sure that ehorn will be delighted to demonstrate the "truth" of all of this to you in real time in our chat room.

Until then, keep your wallet in your pants.

 

 

I remember Brownsfan requested the same from you...

[thalestrader 14]

I remember Brownsfan requested the same from you...

 

 

 

It is quite obvious that the nest has been disturbed, and James will need soon to decide if he will make the necessary changes now, or if he will allow his good forum to degenerate into an ET like community.

[cowseathay 10]

I have a question I am looking for help on.

 

Has someone found a reliable indicator, or combination of indicators, or some other way, that from their personal trading experience can tell if an intra day direction change is a trend change as opposed to a retracement?

 

I asked a very similar question a year ago at the Wyckoff Forum and I found many insightful answers from that thread. I would suggest you take a look and see if it answers your questions: Retracement Vs. Reversal.

 

Specifically, the following reply from DbPhoenix in that thread may be the most helpful to you (as it was to me).

 

You got your reversal when price failed to break through R. You then got your retracement at 1300. It didn't retest R, but it was a retracement nonetheless. That volume is "higher" doesn't necessarily mean buying pressure. Look at those upper tails. That's not buying pressure. That's failure.

 

As for going long, you failed to break through R, so why go long? If you're going to go long, wait for the breakout, if any. If you instead want to buy a retracement back to R now S after the BO, that's up to you. But any retracement after a failure to break through R will just as likely end up being a lower high, and a reason to go short, as in this case.

 

You have to think about the purpose behind a retracement, which is to give people who missed the real trading opportunity a second chance to enter. Here, there was no missed buying opportunity since price never broke through R. The missed opportunity is instead the short entry at the reversal, and the retracement afterward represents a second opportunity to enter the short.

[ehorn 10]

The problem, ehorn, is that no one who claims to have found success with your Jack Hershey Method has ever demonstrated to anyone anywhere in real time that such success is indeed enjoyed.

 

I have asked for just such a demonstration. But nothing of the sort ever came from you or your fellow method members.

 

Likewise, Db has more than implied above that you or Spydertrader or Jack Hershey himself would be more than welcome to make an appearance in the TL chat room and provide a real time demonstration of your method. But I doubt you any other member of your gang will prove himself willing to provide that demonstration.

 

A problem for whom? you?..., DbPhoenix?..., <insert name here>

 

From my perspective, this is simply not a problem which requires a solution. A trader can examine his/her personal results and conclude something about performance and effectiveness. The market is always there and it is an excellent (only) resource for validating or invalidating solutions to problems.

 

 

 

Isn't it enough for you just to continue to post your charts in your own thread each day at 4:15 EDT telling your followers how well you did that day? Must you now troll all over TL for fresh victims? I say victims, because until your method is demonstrated at the proverbial hard right edge of the chart, you are indeed victimizing those whom you induce to commit their time and capital to learning this method. And you do induce them. You do so by asserting that your method allows for the absolute predictability as to where price is going to be and, if I'm not mistaken, when it is going to get there.

 

Your accusations and responses portray a discomfort and unwillingness to allow sharing to occur in a community intended for just such a purpose. Trading is not about prediction. All trading accurs in the NOW, some methods do provide for a level of anticipation. I would not suggest that any learning trader commit any capital until they have sufficient testing and understanding of the methods they undertake.

 

 

You mock those who acknowledge trading as a game of probabilities. You promise your students certainty. If your method really allowed one to predict price, as you claim, rather than merely anticipate price, then you should have no fear of your ability to put on quite an impressive show.

 

Believe me, if you or one of your followers would actually demonstrate your method in such a way as to validate the claims made on its behalf, I would readily be willing to change my opinion concerning your method, and to do so publically.

 

I am not interested in your opinion. Nor am I concerned with your assessment of the approach to which I subscribe. If you despise my views or feel they are out of line with your set of beliefs then feel free to put me on ignore and save yourself the hassle. I would recommend that for anyone who shares your views.

 

It appears the discussion has taken a fork in the road. My intent was to share my thoughts regarding the OP's inquiry. As senior members (read post count) - I would have anticipated a similar level of courtesy and respect towards fellow members who are making inquiries and/or contributions and sharing ideas about trading.

 

Peace.

[thalestrader 14]

It appears the discussion has taken a fork in the road. My intent was to share my thoughts regarding the OP's inquiry. As senior members (read post count) - I would have anticipated a similar level of courtesy and respect towards fellow members who are making inquiries and/or contributions and sharing ideas about trading.

 

Peace.

 

Senior members (read been around the block enough times to know) are well aware of your intentions.

[HAL9000 10]

How should I start, as not yet profitable trader?

 

In my understanding volume is one free variable,

so it might not be right to ignore it,

and as I have always a kind of tape reader running

(5 seconds snapshot with vwap prices),

I think it would be right, that my decisions, right or wrong,

are influenced by volume and price and maybe some indicators.

 

And until now, I think that volume can give you additional clues.

 

On the other hand, would I try to trade just based on volume, only volume.

No. I guess no one would try. And nobody claimed to do so.

 

So what is my message?

 

I think anyone new should try to trade price based first.

If that works, maybe s/he should try to add volume.

But maybe it is not necessary anymore at that point.

 

 

Some more thoughts;

is volume so important, when you trade currency futures (or in other words; is the market of importance)? Isn't the main market regarding currencies the cash market (forex, without volume information)?

 

Furthermore, I like to trade from range bars, so if markets are fractal (like :rofl:),

is it possible to apply the same interpretation on any frame (tick, time, range)?

 

And finally, I like very small stops, but using them will volume of help,

or more confusing?

 

I don't have the answers myself, so I don't expect, that anyone else here has them.

 

My opinion is, that volume might make trading more complex,

but if someone has figured it out, yes he should be free to write about it (if s/he likes), and about the necessary money management of these kinds of trades too.

 

 

Hal

 

P.S.: Peace, and nobody should be forced to do something,

even if it would be nice to see ... you know! :missy:

Edited July 26, 2009 by HAL9000
;-)

[Tams 20]

...

 

So what is my message?

 

I think anyone new should try to trade price based first.

If that works, maybe s/he should try to add volume.

But maybe it is not necessary anymore at that point.

...

 

 

if it works without volume... then don't try to fix something that ain't broke.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

p.s. there is a message above, but not everybody will get it.

Edited July 26, 2009 by Tams

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Hal,

 

You said that:

 

I think that volume can give you additional clues.

 

I agree. I do not think I implied that it couldn't, and if I anywhere did so imply, I was wrong to do so.

 

On the other hand, would I try to trade just based on volume, only volume? No. I guess no one would try. And nobody claimed to do so.

 

No, but do they not come dangerously close to making just such a claim:

 

I'm confident many have read a post (or ten) by Jack clearly stating how one could almost trade by simply focusing on Volume alone.- Spydertrader

 

A number of traders have fallen into a very bad habit over the years. They watch the Price Pane of their chart, rather than, spend the bulk of their time focusing on Volume.- Spydertrader

 

Now, I don't know about you Hal, but here is how I think of the issue at hand:

 

I know that I can trade profitably any market, anywhere in the world that is traded freely and with enough liquidity to let me in and out at will, and all I need to do so is a running record of price. I do not even need a chart. I just need a record of prices. I prefer to use a chart. I find it easier than, say, trading using an excel spread sheet. But all I need is price.

 

Now, could I or anyone else truly say the same thing about volume? If I provided you with nothing but a streaming volume histogram, could you trade successfully without knowing where price is and where price has been? I beleive that no one, even those who claim they could "almost" do so, could really do so.

 

So, which leads which? Which is the primary indicator? The answer is clear: The primary indicator is the very one that provides enough information about the market for one to trade that market without any additional information. That indicator, Hal, is price, not volume.

 

I am not saying that volume cannot provide the astute observer with important information. I am saying that that information will simply confirm what is already observable from price itself. For that reason, I will continue to persist in my "very bad habit" of watching the price pane of my chart, which, by the way, is the only pane I care to keep on my chart.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[HAL9000 10]

Thales,

 

to keep it simple, I agree.

 

The point to me is, that I haven't seen a complete concept on

price and volume. I once stated somewhere, that it is unimportant to

me, whether I will be stopped out on high or low volume.

 

During the time I also saw many different developments on tape,

that build my opinion, that for me volume in the way it was discussed here, is not important anymore.

 

And my tape reading, just helps me to place my limited orders,

once the decision is made.

 

Well and my indicators, I somehow feel like I might be like your friend,

you talked about on another thread, I have them, and maybe they

are just for feeling confident now, but I check them against price action,

s/r and trendlines. Time will tell.

 

 

Regards,

 

Hal

Edited July 26, 2009 by HAL9000
;-)