09

[elovemer 10]

... if trader misjudges trend...

and does not reverse position at 4-5 points

 

trader can still reverse remainder of position at BE stop price

... more risky but can still have chance to catch next move in direction of trend

on the remainder position

 

... especially if 20 point globex range favors more room to the upside rather than downside range expansion

... if range is already used up including lower price range, then more risky to reverse position

...........................

right now possible range is 82---02

Edited February 2, 2010 by elovemer

[elovemer 10]

..once the swing turn is in.... there are not many ten moves against the direction of trend

... until it gets near the upper range of the swing

 

the 50% level of the last move is usually the level to watch for a return to the direction of the trend

[elovemer 10]

... when there is a slight trend but not too strong... which persists day to day.

... that's when it is important to take the reversal trades as a means to fund entries in the direction of trend.

... if the trend continues... .the trader can just repeat this process until it fails.

 

... if the trader has a 4 point gain on a reversal trade and then reverses to go with the trend, the trader using a 3 point stop can allow the bears 7 points from the last pivot high

.... usually 6.5 points is enough to allow the trend to return

[elovemer 10]

............

...............

..............

[elovemer 10]

95.5

....05.5--04.5

...........

.............

[elovemer 10]

bounce on 50% twice

..........

..........

95.5

....05.5--04.5

...........

.............

[elovemer 10]

01.5.....92.5--91.5

st 3 pnt

 

you can't get filled if the low tick is 9 points

.......................

 

which brings up another point.... you can split your entry...

some at 9 and more at 10 ....

Edited February 3, 2010 by elovemer

[elovemer 10]

if trader is somehow magically filled at the low tick

.... management at 95.5

 

01.5.....92.5--91.5

st 3 pnt

 

you can't get filled if the low tick is 9 points

.......................

 

which brings up another point.... you can split your entry...

some at 9 and more at 10 ....

[elovemer 10]

92.5....02.5

 

.. but have to be careful.... because may be better to hold on

.. rather than reverse....

 

... inside action ... going to outside action

.... can blow thru

[elovemer 10]

rth 01.5.........91.5

manage..... 94.5

 

this is the hard trade to take

..................................

amounts to a globex 50% retrace

 

then a rth 50% retrace

..from 84.25

Edited February 3, 2010 by elovemer

[elovemer 10]

92.5 ..... 6.5 manage...... 99

92.5....02.5

 

.. But have to be careful.... Because may be better to hold on

.. Rather than reverse....

 

... Inside action ... Going to outside action

.... Can blow thru

Edited February 3, 2010 by elovemer

[elovemer 10]

manage 94.5.....

... manage again 91.25 plus 6.5 ... 97.75

 

rth 01.5.........91.5

manage..... 94.5

this is the hard trade to take

..................................

amounts to a globex 50% retrace

then a rth 50% retrace

..from 84.25

[elovemer 10]

.... important to move stops on this

.... trade management

92.5....02.5

.. but have to be careful.... because may be better to hold on

.. rather than reverse....

... inside action ... going to outside action

.... can blow thru

[elovemer 10]

91.25.....01.25 next short

 

96.25.......86.25 next long

Edited February 3, 2010 by elovemer

[elovemer 10]

globex signal is

99.5.....90.5--89.5

................look at trend

9/18 sma

 

manage at 93.5

Edited February 3, 2010 by elovemer

[elovemer 10]

00.25

80.25

 

possible globex range

[elovemer 10]

full move on TF

.............

..............

...........

will give some support to ES here... possibly

...edit...TF is russell2000 futures

Edited February 3, 2010 by elovemer

[elovemer 10]

manage again at 90.5 + 6.5 = 97

 

globex signal is

99.5.....90.5--89.5

................look at trend

9/18 sma

manage at 93.5

[elovemer 10]

TF gets started slowly

................

 

ES 00.25....80.25

or 90.5.....10.5

[elovemer 10]

9/18 cross up

...........

...........

............

[elovemer 10]

90.25

....00.25

..............

................

..............

[elovemer 10]

....manage

..........

..........

.......

manage again at 90.5 + 6.5 = 97

[elovemer 10]

97.25

....87.25

...........

...........

[elovemer 10]

98....88

.............

91.75...........81.75

[elovemer 10]

nothing to say on trend day

... but 9/18