09

[elovemer 10]

...look at current trend..

...angle and shape

 

 

.. 9/18 was unable to cross down on the pullback after last short signal

 

...before next short signal..... possible DT at prev rth high

... if that breaks... will have more steam

[elovemer 10]

91.25

.....01.25

........

.........

...........

at 20 pnt globex range... is less likely to make a 3rd move in same direction

Edited January 26, 2010 by elovemer

[elovemer 10]

couldn't even make 9 points at 00.25

 

..edit... 01.25 could still be valid

 

 

91.25

.....01.25

........

.........

...........

at 20 pnt globex range... is less likely to make a 3rd move in same direction

Edited January 26, 2010 by elovemer

[elovemer 10]

... would have been a nice short.... but never reached 9 points...

 

.... up to the trader to take that short or not

 

couldn't even make 9 points at 00.25

..edit... 01.25 could still be valid

[elovemer 10]

92.5.....83.25 turn

..........................

 

83.25...... 92.25--93.25 globex

[elovemer 10]

91........81

 

manage at 84

...............................

and again at 87.5

.....................................

 

if trader believes trend is down...

... then reverse to short at 4-5 ... or 85-86

Edited January 27, 2010 by elovemer

[elovemer 10]

87.5 not hit yet

................

...............

edit.... manage at 87.5

 

 

next short at 91

 

 

91........81

manage at 84

...............................

and again at 87.5

.....................................

Edited January 27, 2010 by elovemer

[elovemer 10]

88.5

....78.5.....68.5

next long

Edited January 27, 2010 by elovemer

[elovemer 10]

...one nice thing about this is...

 

... the trader can have resting orders in place.... so that a down thrust stop run like that does not keep the trader from entering

88.5

....78.5.....68.5

next long

[elovemer 10]

03.5

......93.5

.............

..............

..............

[elovemer 10]

03.5

.......94.5--93.5

...............................

could not make it to 94.5

[elovemer 10]

9/18

.........

.........

...........

[elovemer 10]

...here is an illustration of why it is better to go with the trend

...price goes beyond 10 points...and comes back to retest it

... in effect, rather than acting as support.... it becomes a level of resistance

taking long signals in face of the trend is dangerous here

 

on the other hand....using the 10 point level as a place to enter with the trend is a good idea

[brownsfan019 17]

How do you define when to take reversals vs. trend trades?

[elovemer 10]

... take reversal when you do not detect trend

... take trend trades when you do detect trend

... if you detect trend, then either stay out or use alternative tactics

 

.... usually at the open, the trend has not yet been established

...it's nice to get a signal at a 50% retrace of a larger trend move

 

... i hope that is what you meant,

if you meant How to detect trend, then please see previous posts in response to Blow

 

How do you define

when to take reversals vs. trend trades?

[elovemer 10]

66.5....76.5 ...stop 78.5 (entry at 75.5-76.5)

(if entry is 76.5, it is up to trader to use 79.5 stop or not)

 

high was 77.25 so... manage at 74.25

and again at 73.5

 

on this kind of entry... the gap is going to be below the entry... which is what you want

[elovemer 10]

...if 77.25 breaks...

..next short signal would be 73.75.....83.75

 

if not, the DT will give the down move more fuel

[elovemer 10]

82.75--83.75

-----------------------------

83.5....80.5 manage

82.75....79.75 manage

 

trend ?

 

...edit....there is gap below

Edited February 1, 2010 by elovemer

[elovemer 10]

if trader believes there is trend.

 

then trader reverses to long at

83.5.....4-5.....79.5-78.5

 

and uses a 3 point stop again

[elovemer 10]

77.75

.....87.75

..........

.............

[elovemer 10]

84.75

........74.75

..........

...........

[elovemer 10]

77.75....87.75

82.......92

 

on the 92 short...

... reversing to long at 50% pullback is risky because again you have not one but two gaps below now

 

77.75

.....87.75

..........

.............

Edited February 2, 2010 by elovemer

[elovemer 10]

... if the trader feels that there is trend....

.... it is important to take the reversal trades, if only as a means to pay for a stop on an entry in the direction of trend

.... this way you get a small gain (or loss), with hopes to make a larger one on top of it

 

.... it is when the trend is very strong and fast, that it is better to stay out....

...... you can't know this in advance but once it is known, it is better to take heed of it

 

 

... if you can take a reversal trade and then enter with the trend on a 50% pullback of the move...... you stand to catch the next 10 point move

 

... if you don't know if there is trend or not, then taking the reversal trade is like swinging over and over until you catch the one which is the turn... that is why the trade management aspect is so important.

.... waiting to catch the one which is the real turn, can be costly without good trade management

 

..... this also brings up trade size management. 3 points is the minimum needed to move the stop.

.... if it is 3 points from the turn, you can move stop to the turn.

... if it goes 3 points from the entry, you can move stop to BE

(how different the turn and entry points will be will obviously depend on how far past 9 or 10 points the turn was)

 

.... if you are trading halves, then you can take half off when you get a 3 point gain and see what happens on the remainder

... if you are not trading halves, then you can take more off when you get a 6.5 point gain

 

... beyond 6.5 points, there is a good chance of going the full 10 points.

... beyond 3 points, there is a good chance to go 6.5 points

 

.... the key is to manage your size so that if you have a chance for a 3 point gain, you

take it rather than let the entire size be subsequently stopped out

.... this is because you will also have trades where you just get stuck with a 3 point loss

..... it is important to cover the cost of getting stopped out...

 

...another note is that when you get the really strong moves of 20 points with minimal pullback, it is a signal that a swing turn is near....

.... this can be seen by recent action going into this week.

 

How do you define when to take reversals vs. trend trades?

[elovemer 10]

..... the 92 short is good... because if it has not pulled back yet once rth opens,

then you have two gaps below and the chance of getting a full move and maybe more

 

77.75....87.75

82.......92

on the 92 short...

... reversing to long at 50% pullback is risky because again you have not one but two gaps below now

[elovemer 10]

84.25

....94.25

.... only minimal pullback

 

could reverse to long at 91.25 ... 4 points

............................

 

91....01 next short