09

[elovemer 10]

25.25.....35.25

stop 38.25

manage at 35.25

........................................

 

39.25

.......29.25--30.25

stop 26.25

manage at ? ?

[clmacdougall 11]

Thanks for posting, there are elements of how you are trading that I really enjoy.

[elovemer 10]

.........

............

.............

[BlowFish 10]

for trend market.... use fade system on 10 pnt basis

for example....

if one believes there is trend....

 

on wednesday 47...38 and 43....33

the method is to reverse position on a 4--5 point gain

 

the objective is to use the counter trend trade to fund an entry in the direction of trend

 

Might I ask how you tend to determine trend? In any case you seem to have a good eye for it. From your posts I can see you have avoided a few fades that would not have worked out.

[elovemer 10]

... the system is not easy...

... because for the most part one should take all signals produced.... and try not to avoid taking any signals...

... when you take a signal which doesn't work out.... you are stuck with a 3 point loss, depending on whether you entered at 9 or 10 points and used a 3 point stop on it

(in either case the max loss is 3 points)

 

 

... 2 ways to minimize the losses, are

 

one)

... to move your stop to the turn if it goes 3 points from the turn ..and move your stop to break even if it goes 3 points from your entry (if you entered and it went 10.25--12.75 points before turning)

 

... on the trades that don't work...sometimes you still get a small bounce at 10 points

... hopefully this small bounce is at least 3 points so you can move the stop to the turn for a small loss later or even move it to break even depending on how big the bounce was

 

two)

either stay out or use a trend system as described (rather than this system which is a fade system)

 

three)

think twice before taking a signal if there is a gap which has not been filled in the other direction.... think twice if the 9/18 sma says stay out

==

 

.. to try to answer your question about determining trend

 

i am posting the same chart as the last one... but with a 9/18 sma on it

... where price was dropping, look at the angle of 9/18 ..and the distance between the 9 and 18 lines.. and how they are parallel to each other with no divergence

... this condition shows that there is a very good chance for continuation or trend

 

... now compare this condition to how the 9/18 looked on the previous signals in the chart

... moving sideways, bulges between, no steep angle, not parallel to each other

 

so, for example, let's say you went short at the high signal

.. if you were already short, then the 9/18 might either keep you in the trade at 10 points, or it might keep you from taking a long, or reversing to long

 

... even if price doesn't continue for another 10 points, the 9/18 could still save you from

getting stopped out on a move which goes more than 13 points before turning

 

... on a side note, i am still trying to work out the trend system rules... or... what rules to use when the trader wants to capitalize on the trend rather than fade it

 

... and as said previously, the fade system is not mine. i did not come up with it.

 

Might I ask how you tend to determine trend?

 

In any case you seem to have a good eye for it.

From your posts I can see you have avoided a few fades that would not have worked out.

[elovemer 10]

... i should have said "use trend system on 10 pnt basis"

 

.. the current system is a fade system ...already

 

..............................................................................

QUOTE

for trend market.... use fade system on 10 pnt basis

for example....

if one believes there is trend....

 

on wednesday 47...38 and 43....33

the method is to reverse position on a 4--5 point gain

 

the objective is to use the counter trend trade to fund an entry in the direction of trend

[elovemer 10]

86.25.....96.25.....06.25

[elovemer 10]

03

....93

 

 

97.25

.....87.25

........................................

 

but looks like trend may be down

[elovemer 10]

waiting for 87.25 .... or

 

90.5........ 00.5

[elovemer 10]

on 03....93

 

management was at

91.75 plus 3 ... or 95.75

 

and then again at 93 plus 3 .... or 96

 

03

....93

 

 

97.25

.....87.25

........................................

 

but looks like trend may be down

[elovemer 10]

on the 03....93

 

at 4-5 ... or 07--08

 

if you believed the trend was down.... you would just reverse position and use the gain to fund a stop on a short entry

 

...also... the gap was below any long entries... which is bearish for long plays

 

 

03

....93

...............................

 

but looks like trend may be down

[elovemer 10]

on the 03....93

 

regarding trend....

... look at the 9/18 when price got to 97

[elovemer 10]

look at angle and shape of 9/18 on the way down

[elovemer 10]

waiting for 87.25

..or 10 from the last low pivot

 

 

 

waiting for 87.25 .... or

90.5........ 00.5

[BlowFish 10]

Been a bit irregular visiting TL. Thanks for your reply to my question a few posts back.

[elovemer 10]

89.75 was low pivot.

99.5 was high pivot

---------------------------------------------

next low pivot was 90

-------------------

next high pivot was 96.... would be a stop out at 86

----------------------------

 

next signal from 81..... 91 short

but gap is above

 

 

 

waiting for 87.25

..or 10 from the last low pivot

[elovemer 10]

... if opens at globex short....

 

... it would be a rth long

[elovemer 10]

on 91 short

manage at 89 and 88

--------------------------------------

if one believes trend is up.... then reverse to long at 88--87

... still using a 3 point stop

[elovemer 10]

86...96

is the short....

 

unless the trend is telling you something

,,,, 06

............................

 

if you see trend.... then reverse to long at 4-5 point pullback

92--91

...using a 3 point stop

............................................

 

91 is also 50%

Edited January 26, 2010 by elovemer

[elovemer 10]

91.75 so far

...........

............

.............

stop would be at 89 .....on a 92 reversal

 

........manage at 91.75 plus 3 ... or 94.75

[elovemer 10]

...if you didn't see a trend.... then manage at 93

 

and look for next long

86...96

is the short....

[elovemer 10]

91.25 so far... on a reversal

 

91.75 so far

[elovemer 10]

94.75 not hit yet

.............

.............

91.75 so far

...........

............

.............

stop would be at 89 .....on a 92 reversal

....manage at 91.75 plus 3 ... or 94.75

[elovemer 10]

on a 92 reversal...

move stop to BE when 95 is hit

 

.....95 hit

.........................................

...now double top has to hold for long to not work

 

if DT breaks... will give more energy to the move

[elovemer 10]

take some off at plus 6.5

or ... 92 plus .... is 98.5

 

...up to trader to take off some hold on until next short

....look at trend

 

 

...next short signal at 91.25.......01.25

on a 92 reversal...

move stop to BE when 95 is hit

.....95 hit

.........................................

...now double top has to hold for long to not work

if DT breaks... will give more energy to the move