Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

Highlighted in bold, you say we cannot be at the end of the medium B2B, it's P2, until price BO of the B2B container (Olive) with increasing volume.

 

As price did not BO of it's B2B container (Olive), why is there a medium 2R gaussian ?

 

Why isn't that medium 2R a thin 2r gausian

ie: b2b2r2b 2r(at10.45)2b 2r(at11.10)2b ?

 

Or the thick B2B is not instead a medium B2B ?

 

Kind Regards

 

 

What about the following suggestion:

 

"Try to think now about what the volume trough at 10:55 indicated. And what happened in the price pane and volume pane at 11:05 and 11:10"?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
As a general principle this sounds fine but in reality, the market simply does not behave in a uniform 3*3 relationship as in your theoretical illustration.

Upon reflection, I have to agree. I thought I was on to something but it appears not. You might think that IF anyone understands what is going on here they would step forward and offer an explanation. Instead, those that want to give the impression that they understand just post drills. Weird.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Agreed, this can not be Pt 2 of the medium sequence.

 

Two things make logical sense to me here:

 

1. The medium B2B can not yet be complete. I arrive at this by WWT (what wasn't that), as it was not the 2R the B2B must still be forming.

Or

2. The medium B2B was started in the wrong location.

 

I know #2 is obviously the correct conclusion, I am just stuck on the why.

 

 

Actually #1 is the logical consequence. Remember you do not trade in hindsight. So the placement of the medium B2B troughs at 10:25 in realtime is the right thing to do. But you move it after additional data arrives. Now you do not reverse at points 2 of the faster fractal traverses, do you? :)So you just hold.

 

 

 

11:05 and 11:10 form a down container which fail to move through the RTL just as happened at 10:45. However, both bars of the 11:05 container are decreasing volume unlike the previous.

 

 

 

Now look at what develops in the volume pane at the 2B part of the medium lines. (10:35 –10:50)

 

Think in terms of acceleration.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Or the thick B2B is not instead a medium B2B ?

Kind Regards

Something like this perhaps? Because we have no olive rtl bo, the thin gaussian continues, creating only a medium B2B, with the trough of the B2B where the black peaks start to increase.

5aa7103c48f19_examplenewgs.jpg.e4855bff92f27d253c3099c6f297250f.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Attached is my effort on the 10/13 downward movement. I tried to be very strict with the tape level, using a preliminary differentiation of the ve close as a guide to fan/no fan.

 

I've similar questions to those of breakeven:

 

1. Did I jump fractals?

2. A better understaning of _____ would improve this chart directly?

 

Any comments welcome and appreciated.

1013drill1.thumb.gif.ff84ebd7722e12a3935eaaebeff24bd2.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What about the following suggestion:

 

"Try to think now about what the volume trough at 10:55 indicated. And what happened in the price pane and volume pane at 11:05 and 11:10"?

 

Thx for the reply.

I left out that part of your post for the following reason:

I was understanding a general principle to be that until the olive RTL had a BO on increasing volume then the B2B medium fractal would continue.

Such that we couldn't have the medium 2R yet.

 

I left out responding to volume peaks and troughs until this general principle was confirmed or other wise ? ?

 

What you are trying (most patiently and thank you) to convey, as I understand it,

is that the medium 2R is not defined as having to be outside the olive RTL,

but that volume determines where the medium 2R is ?

 

And even more specifically how that volume is formed ?

IE: higher peaks, lower troughs ets..??

 

Its not easy to talk this through in this medium so hope I'm explaining myself and thank everyone for their continued input.

 

For me, this is only about how to know to what fractal the gaussian relates.

 

If the solution, to understanding how to determine what fractal we are on, is about volume peaks and troughs then it would be great to have the general principles explained on that as I do not recall them being given in this thread, nor indeed in any of the threads that I have been following for at least the last 4 years !

 

many thx

Edited by zt379

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Something like this perhaps? Because we have no olive rtl bo, the thin gaussian continues, creating only a medium B2B, with the trough of the B2B where the black peaks start to increase.

 

Yes exactly. Thank you.

As per my post 2330:

is a B2B RTL BO on increasing volume required in order to have its same fractal 2R leg

a principle required for this methodology ?

 

Many Thx

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Actually #1 is the logical consequence. Remember you do not trade in hindsight. So the placement of the medium B2B troughs at 10:25 in realtime is the right thing to do. But you move it after additional data arrives. Now you do not reverse at points 2 of the faster fractal traverses, do you? :)So you just hold.

 

Alright! Now I am getting on the same page as you. This is starting to make sense :)

 

 

Now look at what develops in the volume pane at the 2B part of the medium lines. (10:35 –10:50)

Think in terms of acceleration.

 

It appears that volume continues to make higher peaks before ending the move on relatively low black volume. Volume also makes a higher peak that the volume at Pt 1. To be honest though, I am not sure exactly what this is telling me.

 

Thanks again!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yes exactly. Thank you.

As per my post 2330:

is a B2B RTL BO on increasing volume required in order to have its same fractal 2R leg

a principle required for this methodology ?

 

Many Thx

 

No it's not an error that I'm quoting myself..lol

My question, I realize may have been miss leading.

 

I would say that yes a BO of the B2B RTL is required in order to have it's same fractal 2R leg.

What I am perhaps realizing is that the determination of that B2B RTL has more to do with volume than lines on a chart as we annotated them up to that point.

 

??

 

Regards to all...you too yoda :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Actually #1 is the logical consequence. Remember you do not trade in hindsight. So the placement of the medium B2B troughs at 10:25 in realtime is the right thing to do. But you move it after additional data arrives. Now you do not reverse at points 2 of the faster fractal traverses, do you? :)So you just hold.

.

 

That's the approach I use, but it means you are dealing with probability (of a B2B in this case) until later confirmation or disconfirmation.

Also, in this specific case it wouldn't cause a trading error if you are trading on a slower fractal. But since the same situation can occur on your trading fractal (fractals being identical), it can result in a error if/when it develops on the slower fractal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

part 2-

 

The gaussians feel like a necessary/sufficiency gate on what I build up from the tapes. Am I drawing them correctly or completely missing the boat?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
That's the approach I use, but it means you are dealing with probability (of a B2B in this case) until later confirmation or disconfirmation.

 

No, it doesn't. It only means that you are not interested in knowing how many sequences the market will provide. If you try to predict the number of sequences, then you are right. YOU are dealing with probs.

 

Also, in this specific case it wouldn't cause a trading error if you are trading on a slower fractal. But since the same situation can occur on your trading fractal (fractals being identical), it can result in a error if/when it develops on the slower fractal.

 

If you choose a faster fractal to trade on, you'll need additional annotations for the even faster fractal then the chosen one. So your MADA will differ.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
No, it doesn't. It only means that you are not interested in knowing how many sequences the market will provide. If you try to predict the number of sequences, then you are right. YOU are dealing with probs.

 

 

 

If you choose a faster fractal to trade on, you'll need additional annotations for the even faster fractal then the chosen one. So your MADA will differ.

 

1. I wasn't talking about prediction. If you annotate a B2B but then discover it wasn't, then your annotation was either of a probability, or a mistake.

 

2. Perhaps I wasn't clear enough. I wasn't talking about trading on a faster fractal. Since fractals are identical, the same situation can occur on the slower trading fractal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1. I wasn't talking about prediction. If you annotate a B2B but then discover it wasn't, then your annotation was either of a probability, or a mistake.

.

 

This can not be a mistake because at the time of annotation you do not have any additional data.It doesn't have anything to do with probability either. The discussions of this type are futile. You want to think the way you think, so be it.

2. Perhaps I wasn't clear enough. I wasn't talking about trading on a faster fractal. Since fractals are identical, the same situation can occur on the slower trading fractal.

 

You were clear enough. You just confused something about fractals.

Edited by gucci

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Part 5. It looks like the thick down goat ended today, and a new thick up started.

 

Am I on a decent path here, or am I so far off the track I've wandered into Baja?

1013drill5-big.thumb.gif.d34f95d96c0931d95587f9abf31da6fa.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thx for the reply.

 

What you are trying (most patiently and thank you) to convey, as I understand it,

is that the medium 2R is not defined as having to be outside the olive RTL,

but that volume determines where the medium 2R is ?

 

One more time… It is not ONLY about volume BUT ALSO about price.

 

Think…

 

How do you draw a tape? Where do you place the point 3 of a tape? Since the tape is nothing more then the faster fractal traverse, think about the following questions.

 

How do you draw a traverse ? Where do you place point 3 of a traverse AND what HAS TO HAPPEN in the VOLUME pane for your point 3 of a traverse being in the right place?

 

Why do you HAVE sometimes to steepen your RTL?

 

Now what about the LOCATION of point 2? Does it have to be OUTSIDE of something?

 

Do not answer these questions for me. Think about them while analysing or annotating a chart.

 

And even more specifically how that volume is formed ?

IE: higher peaks, lower troughs ets..??

 

Yes. AND where those troughs and peaks are located (see price pane, points 1,2,3 containers) AND what the volume did to price.

 

For me, this is only about how to know to what fractal the gaussian relates.

 

If the solution, to understanding how to determine what fractal we are on, is about volume peaks and troughs then it would be great to have the general principles explained on that as I do not recall them being given in this thread, nor indeed in any of the threads that I have been following for at least the last 4 years !

 

 

I can relate to your frustration, believe me. But the GENERAL principles where explicitly explained by Spyder in the beginning of this very thread. You just had to pay attention.

 

HTH.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is my DAX chart with annotations. Only traverse level Gaussians are annotated.

 

The Gaussian line before the last one should be red, sorry.

Dax.thumb.jpg.4a3a63448de0a0f3607943d474997c24.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This is a drill. Some of you might find it useful.

 

Thanks gucci. This is very helpful. Looks like when we see increasing volume, we steepen the container. Am I correct to say that?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thanks gucci. This is very helpful. Looks like when we see increasing volume, we steepen the container. Am I correct to say that?

 

My answer will not give you any confidence. And that is what it is all about. Think... Look at the charts. It should work anytime.

 

You are right, but do not forget the context,i.e. where you are in the sequence and what happens to the LTL.

Edited by gucci

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 31st March 2025.   Trump Confirms Tariffs on All Countries, Sending Stocks Lower.   The NASDAQ continues to trade lower due to the US confirming the latest tariffs will be on all countries. In addition to this, bearish volatility also is largely due to the higher inflation data from Friday. The NASDAQ declines to its lowest price since September 11th 2024. Core PCE Price Index - Inflation Increases Again! The PCE Price Index read 2.5% aligning with expert forecasts not triggering any alarm bells. However, the Core PCE Price Index rose from 0.3% to 0.4% MoM and from 2.7% to 2.8% YoY, signalling growing inflationary pressure. This increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain elevated interest rates for an extended period. The NASDAQ fell 2.60% due to the higher inflation reading which is known to pressure the stock market due to pressure on consumer demand and a more hawkish Federal Reserve. Boston Fed President Susan Collins recently commented that tariffs could drive up inflation, though the long-term impact remains uncertain. She told journalists that a short-term spike is the most probable outcome but believes the current pause in monetary policy adjustments is appropriate given the prevailing uncertainties. Although, certain investment banks such as JP Morgan actually believe the Federal Reserve will be forced into cutting rates. This is due to expectations that the economy will struggle under the new trade policy. For example, JP Morgan expects the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts but will quickly cut towards the end of 2025. Market Risk Appetite Takes a Hit! A big factor for the day is the drop in the risk appetite of investors. This can be seen from the VIX which is up almost 6%, Gold which is trading 1.30% higher and the Japanese Yen which is the day’s best performing currency. Most safe haven assets, bar the US Dollar, increase in value. It is also worth noting that all indices are decreasing in value during this morning's Asian session with the Nikkei225 and NASDAQ witnessing the strongest decline. Previously the stock market rose in value as investors heard rumours that tariffs would only be on certain countries. This bullish swing occurred between March 14th and 25th. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump indicated that the upcoming tariffs would apply to all countries, not just those with the largest trade imbalances with the US. NASDAQ - Technical Analysis In terms of technical analysis, the NASDAQ continues to obtain indications that sellers control the price action. The price opens on a bearish price gap measuring 0.30% and trades below all Moving Averages on all timeframes. The NASDAQ also trades below the VWAP and almost 100% of the most influential components (stocks) are declining in value.     The next significant support level is at $18,313, and the resistance level stands at $20,367.95. Key Takeaway Points: NASDAQ falls to its lowest since September 2024 as the US confirms tariffs on all countries, adding to inflation concerns. Core PCE inflation rises to 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY, increasing the likelihood of prolonged high interest rates. Investor risk appetite drops as VIX jumps 6%, gold gains 1.3%, and safe-haven assets outperform. NASDAQ shows strong bearish momentum, trading below key technical levels with support at $18,313 and resistance at $20,367.95. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • PM Philip Morris stock, top of range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?PM
    • EXC Exelon stock, nice range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?EXC
    • UTZ Utz Brands stock, watch for a bottom breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?UTZ
    • FL Foot Locker stock, nice breakdown follow through at https://stockconsultant.com/?FL
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.