Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

Does such an event tell me that I have taped the area incorrectly?

 

While the event which you describe may indeed point to errors in annotation technique, in this specific example, no errors exist (with respect to the area under discussion).

 

What am I missing here?

 

Either, you do not see something which provides the FTT or you do not see a contextual difference which indicates the possibility an environment exists which has the ability to obscure that which you expect to see. In order to understand which of the two applies to you, look for the exact same set of circumstances (moving forward) and (when located) operate from the standpoint that you (both) had an FTT (which you do not see) and did not have an FTT. When the market delivers the next set of events (which must come next), return to this specific example and note the similarities and differences between then and the future example.

 

Once you complete this process you'll know which answer applies to you, but more importantly, you'll also know how to avoid a making the same error moving forward.

 

HTH.

 

- Spydertrader

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So was the fact that you couldn't construct an FTT with the 13:10 bar in effect telling you that it couldn't be the 'real' P3 and that you should anticipate a 'new' P2 somewhere down the road, which is in fact what heppened?

 

Yes, but it was not apparent to me until today. As I mentioned before, it can be a bit of a challenge for me to differentiate what something looks like vs what has actually taken place. Particularly when I've done it a certain way for so long.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Then what is the point of drawing the gaussian?? And how is one supposed to track the b2b2r2b sequence at L1?

 

The reason I don't post charts on this thread is because I formulate the Gaussian distributions in my head. The reason why I formulate the Gaussian distributions in my head has been elaborated on elsewhere and will not be repeated here. I am not and never have advised anyone to do what I do with respect to anything having to do with the theory or the method.

 

That said, when you look at a 'stick bar' chart taken in isolation there exists the possibility that when context is superimposed (like the bar OHLC, like the presence of other constructions, etc.), the answers to your questions will become apparent.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi romanus,

 

I do not know whether I interpreted the quoted sentence the way it was supposed to be, so bear with me. But there seems to be a tacit implication that FTT represents the ONLY POSSIBLE end effect (i.e. completion) of a sequence on any fractal?

 

While the event which you describe may indeed point to errors in annotation technique, in this specific example, no errors exist (with respect to the area under discussion).

 

Either, you do not see something which provides the FTT or you do not see a contextual difference which indicates the possibility an environment exists which has the ability to obscure that which you expect to see. In order to understand which of the two applies to you, look for the exact same set of circumstances (moving forward) and (when located) operate from the standpoint that you (both) had an FTT (which you do not see) and did not have an FTT. When the market delivers the next set of events (which must come next), return to this specific example and note the similarities and differences between then and the future example.

 

Once you complete this process you'll know which answer applies to you, but more importantly, you'll also know how to avoid a making the same error moving forward.

 

HTH.

 

- Spydertrader

 

Could be going off base here, but during the Romanus / PointOne discussion I kept coming back to Gucci's comment, as we could get a signal for change that doesn't appear to be an FTT, at least on the 5 min ES.

 

On the point 3 in question, the only way that couldn't be a point 3 is if it is an FTT of something else (say a down traverse for discussions sake) and a new point one of the up thing/traverse. Since my interpretation was there were no annotation errors in the "taping" of this area, there could be some bigger picture or larger fractal lines coming into play.

 

Right track?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Either, you do not see something which provides the FTT or you do not see a contextual difference which indicates the possibility an environment exists which has the ability to obscure that which you expect to see.

 

After review, and comparing the 1310 bar from 08/05 to a few others, I notice that volume accelerates in this area in a fashion similar to what we used to call Peak Volume. Seems I recall that PV would frequently mask an FTT on a VE of the tape.

Edited by jbarnby
spelling

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Here is a good explanation of PV relationship...aka JW:cool:

 

MB, how does microeconomic theory 101 mentioned in your attached article relate to JW or PV relationship? Hints?;) TIA

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
MB, how does microeconomic theory 101 mentioned in your attached article relate to JW or PV relationship? Hints?;) TIA
Let me try ...

 

up trend: demand in control (m), supply constant (w):

1->2 & 3->ftt: demand up => v&p up (A),

2->3 & ftt->rtl: demand down => v&p down (D)

 

down trend: supply in control (m), demand constant (w):

1->2 & 3->ftt: supply up => v up & p down (A),

2->3 & ftt->rtl: supply down => v down & p up (D)

5aa70f1841953_ds.png.eee7d764be03e640fe34271358b03ac7.png

Edited by cnms2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Let me try ...

 

up trend: demand in control (m), supply constant (w):

1->2 & 3->ftt: demand up => v&p up (A),

2->3 & ftt->rtl: demand down => v&p down (D)

 

down trend: supply in control (m), demand constant (w):

1->2 & 3->ftt: supply up => v up & p down (A),

2->3 & ftt->rtl: supply down => v down & p up (D)

Exactamundo............:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Let me try ...

 

up trend: demand in control (m), supply constant (w):

1->2 & 3->ftt: demand up => v&p up (A),

2->3 & ftt->rtl: demand down => v&p down (D)

 

down trend: supply in control (m), demand constant (w):

1->2 & 3->ftt: supply up => v up & p down (A),

2->3 & ftt->rtl: supply down => v down & p up (D)

 

cnms2, appreciate for the try. However, the dynamic auction-like (ie two-sided) of the market could not be explained by static supply and demand.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am confused on how to label the carry over gaussians from today. Highlighted is the area in question. If anyone interpreted this area clearly, please share.

 

- Monkman

5aa70f18508c3_8-21-2009question.jpg.c6d6a48323b006a3933b127ed5e2364e.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I am confused on how to label the carry over gaussians from today. Highlighted is the area in question. If anyone interpreted this area clearly, please share.

 

- Monkman

Try 14:45 (or even 14:35) to 8:55 (your chart times) as all decreasing red. End of day volume and opening bar volume needs to be taken into consideration. It can make the gaussians a bit harder to read. - E Z

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I am confused on how to label the carry over gaussians from today. Highlighted is the area in question. If anyone interpreted this area clearly, please share.

 

- Monkman

 

Another approach would be to ask yourself whether there was evidence of completion of the uptape at EOD yesterday. If you thought yes then it would appear that you were wrong. Then the question becomes, why. If you saw no evidence for completion, then this AM was simply the making of yet another P2 and at EOD today you ask yourself the same question you did yesterday. Has there been completion?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Another approach would be to ask yourself whether there was evidence of completion of the uptape at EOD yesterday. If you thought yes then it would appear that you were wrong. Then the question becomes, why. If you saw no evidence for completion, then this AM was simply the making of yet another P2 and at EOD today you ask yourself the same question you did yesterday. Has there been completion?

 

 

The blue tape appears to be completed. In that tape from previous day starting at 13:50 central time you have B2R B2R (change) R2B R2B and then R2 from 15:10 to 15:15. The blue tape goes through all the gaussian formations called for completion, and then the downward tape forms (purple) at 14:14 previous day. For the purple tape to complete you think the sequence would go R2B R2B then R2 and continue to decreasing B. Instead you have continuation of the purple tape, 15:10 to 15:15 increasing Red, but no decreasing black. Now what I think, I did wrong was not zoom out and consider the last bar from yesterday 15:15 to be an FTT of the purple tape, and point 3 of an upward traverse. When zoomed out you can see the blue tape, and purple tape fractals have ended, and the completion of the B2R traverse has also completed forming a pt3. Then at the traverse level you get increasing black on the first bar of today, which is continuation of the B2R traverse.

 

Going to re label this so you can see what i'm saying in chart form.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
ok here is the new chart

 

Our charts are quite different but I do see what you are saying. cnms2's 'slide' is a quick way to see that there was no completion but that is also evident without 'sliding'. FWIW, the uptape I am referring to began late in the afternoon of 8-19 and is still incomplete.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Does it make a difference?

 

I want to say no, but if the 8/21 bar is changed to increasing red, that would make it R2R marking a change in trend on the traverse level. So I would then on look for it to continue out a R2B cycle. In this example, we see a continuation of R2B from the previous day.

 

 

Another question:

 

if you have an R2R on the tape fractal level, does B2 R2 have to follow or can the cycle get cut short , and change before the cycle ends? Because i'm looking at the fastest fractal, the tape, looking for it to complete its volume cycle, but what if it does not complete and an FTT forms. And then a traverse builds in the other direction. Is that possible?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
... Another question:

 

if you have an R2R on the tape fractal level, does B2 R2 have to follow or can the cycle get cut short , and change before the cycle ends? Because i'm looking at the fastest fractal, the tape, looking for it to complete its volume cycle, but what if it does not complete and an FTT forms. And then a traverse builds in the other direction. Is that possible?

I think you have your answer in the 3rd paragraph of the 1st post of this thread. If you forget everything you knew before this thread started, and just read Spydertrader's posts here, you have everything you need to be profitable everyday, or at least to know what you did wrong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I think you have your answer in the 3rd paragraph of the 1st post of this thread. If you forget everything you knew before this thread started, and just read Spydertrader's posts here, you have everything you need to be profitable everyday, or at least to know what you did wrong.

 

True, the information you speak of is the core at a general level. But what I am trying to figure out is how to label the gaussians correctly at the tape fractal level, and then proceed to the traverse level. If I can do this correctly, I will be able to know what price looks like, and when Change , and continuation happens with the gaussian formations. At the traverse level it seems there is more interpretation with volume formations meaning if you can have three black up bars, a decreasing red bar, then another higher black bar. At the tape fractal it reads a different sequence then that of the traverse level is what I am seeing. Is this how the volume formations on the tape and traverse level are correctly viewed?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
True, the information you speak of is the core at a general level. But ... At the tape fractal it reads a different sequence then that of the traverse level is what I am seeing. Is this how the volume formations on the tape and traverse level are correctly viewed?
My short answer: no.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 3rd April 2025.   Gold Prices Pull Back After Record High as Traders Eye Trump’s Tariffs.   Key Takeaways:   Gold prices retreated after hitting a record high of $3,167.57 per ounce due to profit-taking. President Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports, escalating trade tensions. Gold remains exempt from reciprocal tariffs, reinforcing its safe-haven appeal. Investors await US non-farm payroll data for further market direction. Fed rate cut bets and weaker US Treasury yields underpin gold’s bullish outlook. Gold Prices Retreat from Record Highs Amid Profit-Taking Gold prices saw a pullback on Thursday as traders opted to take profits following a historic surge. Spot gold declined 0.4% to $3,122.10 per ounce as of 0710 GMT, retreating from its fresh all-time high of $3,167.57. Meanwhile, US gold futures slipped 0.7% to $3,145.00 per ounce, reflecting broader market uncertainty over economic and geopolitical developments.   The recent rally was largely fueled by concerns over escalating trade tensions after President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping new import tariffs. The 10% baseline tariff on all goods entering the US further deepened the global trade conflict, intensifying investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold. However, as traders locked in gains from the surge, prices saw a modest retracement.   Trump’s Tariffs and Their Market Implications On Wednesday, Trump introduced a sweeping tariff policy imposing a 10% baseline duty on all imports, with significantly higher tariffs on select nations. While this move was aimed at bolstering domestic manufacturing, it sent shockwaves across global markets, fueling inflation concerns and heightening trade war fears.   Gold’s Role Amid Trade War Escalations Despite the widespread tariff measures, the White House clarified that reciprocal tariffs do not apply to gold, energy, and ‘certain minerals that are not available in the US’. This exemption suggests that central banks and institutional investors may continue favouring gold as a hedge against economic instability. One of the key factors supporting gold is the slowdown that these tariffs could cause in the US economy, which raises the likelihood of future Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold is currently in a pure momentum trade. Market participants are on the sidelines and until we see a significant shakeout, this momentum could persist.   Impact on the US Dollar and Bond Yields Gold prices typically move inversely to the US dollar, and the latest developments have pushed the dollar to its weakest level since October 2024. Market participants are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate cut, as the tariffs could weigh on economic growth.   Additionally, US Treasury yields have plummeted, reflecting growing recession fears. Lower bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it a more attractive investment.         Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch Gold’s recent rally has pushed it into overbought territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70. This indicates a potential short-term pullback before the uptrend resumes. The immediate support level lies at $3,115, aligning with the Asian session low. A further decline could bring gold towards the $3,100 psychological level, which has previously acted as a strong support zone. Below this, the $3,076–$3,057 region represents a critical weekly support range where buyers may re-enter the market. In the event of a more significant correction, $3,000 stands as a major psychological floor.   On the upside, gold faces immediate resistance at $3,149. A break above this level could signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a retest of the record high at $3,167. If bullish momentum persists, the next target is the $3,200 psychological barrier, which could pave the way for further gains. Despite the recent pullback, the broader trend remains bullish, with dips likely to be viewed as buying opportunities.   Looking Ahead: Non-Farm Payrolls and Fed Policy Traders are closely monitoring Friday’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, which could provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. A weaker-than-expected jobs report may strengthen expectations for an interest rate cut, further boosting gold prices.   Other key economic data releases, such as jobless claims and the ISM Services PMI, may also impact market sentiment in the short term. However, with rising geopolitical uncertainties, trade tensions, and a weakening US dollar, gold’s safe-haven appeal remains strong.   Conclusion: While short-term profit-taking may trigger minor corrections, gold’s long-term outlook remains bullish. As global trade tensions mount and the Federal Reserve leans toward a more accommodative stance, gold could see further gains in the months ahead.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • AMZN Amazon stock, nice buying at the 187.26 triple+ support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?AMZN
    • DELL Dell Technologies stock, good day moving higher off the 90.99 double support area, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?DELL
    • MCK Mckesson stock, nice trend and continuation breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?MCK
    • lmfx just officially launched their own LMGX token, Im planning to grab a couple of hundred and maybe have the option to stake them. 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.