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Thought I'd drop a 15min in here.

 

Update 7.

Been a grind and a drag dragging the thiner black rtl,

but it us what it is...until it isn't I suppose.

 

The lateral from 12:00 looks to me to be a non dom lateral.

 

still holding long but not much umph here at the highs of the day.

Waiting for inc black vol to kick in.

5aa710d1c7212_ES03-12(15Min)24_02_2012.a.thumb.jpg.e5862caaf079e5ac4d5eedf5b0baffcf.jpg

5aa710d1db9cf_ES03-12(5Min)24_02_2012.J.thumb.jpg.bb9a034b9deabad1985619d6183ba861.jpg

Edited by FilterTip

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Update 8.

 

timed out updating last post..has it relly been that long.

 

Covered my long @ 1365.50 B/E.

 

That was a shame being up 1.5 points,

So that 13:15 doji was it..?

 

Presently flat.

 

Update 9.

I'm tentively short (if such a thing exists) @ 1365.00.

i've superimposed an Orange (very fruity) "thing" with it's possible volume.

so we could be in a non dom leg of that.

As volume looks more about that in view of the action at the highs of the day.

 

15 min Update.

We may be in that non -dom ( P2 to P3) thing that I was mindfull of from yesterday.

ie: yesterday/today was still going to a P2 of larger up container.

Just some thoughts

5aa710d1e99c3_ES03-12(5Min)24_02_2012.K.thumb.jpg.26bd616f938a28b3b565da1ef400eba9.jpg

5aa710d1f3081_ES03-12(5Min)24_02_2012.l.thumb.jpg.e68dda1e6d35008c1b6668083c2a35ab.jpg

5aa710d2049a9_ES03-12(15Min)23_02_2012.b.thumb.jpg.b07edfb8527b538beda76a619ee645c4.jpg

Edited by FilterTip

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Explaining the Orange Thingy.

 

see chart notes.

 

But to add. it amounts to the same thing as this non dom leg

on the 15 min chart...sorry for the intrusion...

normal programming will resume shortly..

 

Presently still short from 1365.00

 

Update 10

covered shorts @ 1362.25

 

Presently flat and somewhat hungry..

 

Update 11

 

Short @ 1362.25

So back to those VE's thingy that I asked about before...

 

Shouldn't we get another move down..a return to red dominance ?

5aa710d21459e_ES03-12(5Min)24_02_2012.orangethingy.thumb.jpg.f0c165fb4691d99072747c6e5e98b39f.jpg

5aa710d21ab02_ES03-12(5Min)24_02_2012.m.thumb.jpg.5c65fd89831deb489f8716831bd34113.jpg

5aa710d21ffc3_ES03-12(5Min)24_02_2012.n.thumb.jpg.1041c4937060e0c9bf7d7c7316caad38.jpg

5aa710d225c77_ES03-12(5Min)24_02_2012.o.thumb.jpg.c2bb72622ecd910a64dfa2ee792a2e44.jpg

Edited by FilterTip

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Update 11

 

My entry @1362.25 was not good.

I added a short @ 1363.00.

 

so as to return to red dom..

what do Ve have here ?

 

I suppose it is it but I'm still left with the same two

questions from yesterday..

1) how do we know if it will go araound again or not..

2) where's the ftt at 14;40 ?

 

Presently short

 

Update 12.

 

didn't see the move whilst typing.

covered shorts late and reversed long @ 1363.50

 

Presently long

5aa710d234717_ES03-12(5Min)24_02_2012.p.thumb.jpg.c7c3379294274fc126ee661a234bc249.jpg

5aa710d23a6e0_ES03-12(5Min)24_02_2012.q.thumb.jpg.c6b2c7d48e397380c20d7fe19bf76616.jpg

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Hope you closed out your longs near the top of the 16:00 bar. Thanks a bunch for the play by play, by the way.

 

I changed some of my annotation habits, or maybe I shifted fractal levels, I'm not sure.

 

Painfully low volume day. I don't feel good trading these conditions, but I watched FilterTip's play by play intently. Gave me a lot of insight to my own emotional and mental state at the points he was calling.

 

My hunch is that up channel ended at 13:15 EST on the doji that pokes out of the lateral, and we had down traverse from there moving from p1 to p2 of the channel.

 

I am indecisive about 14:40 on. I followed it as a continuation of the down traverse and annotated red dom starting at 15:30, but I'm questioning that. Looks like we will have to look at Monday to provide clarity.

5aa710d24069c_ES03-12(5Min)2_24_2012.thumb.jpg.0bd694d600ffe170177c2cb5048ab45f.jpg

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Update 11

 

 

 

Presently long

 

Cool stuff...I like the gaussian projections... same amisme...you guys have the gaussians on diff fractals down pat...perhaps I can learn some here...

5aa710d245395_FEB24EOD.thumb.gif.6876e37cb5f5fc8fc082383db14e296f.gif

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Question re Tick charts:

 

Is there somebody here who really gets the Tick charts?

 

I have been staring at them for weeks now, attempting to see what JH describes in the Video (the pairs shifting "favoring" etc.), and what is described in the threads...and I just can't see it...perhaps I am especially dense in this regard...

 

So, if you do know, please kindly point out to me what I am missing...I included 3 FTT's from yesterday and today...It is clear to me that you can visualize gaussians etc on that chart as well...but what I am looking for is the specific point on the Tick-chart where you see the change in direction.... I can't seem to be able to do that, even in hindsight...:-D

 

many thanks,

 

Vienna

5aa710d24aba7_FTT1.GIF.736e754882f358c47f403c70a619485c.GIF

5aa710d252a34_FTT2.GIF.74bcfca7620b4bc206a9388d380020c1.GIF

5aa710d25a1eb_FTT3.GIF.d3e8176495d0ad21c8e74b25927350d0.GIF

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So back to those VE's thingy that I asked about before...

 

Shouldn't we get another move down..a return to red dominance ?

 

This is regarding your question regarding yesterday... see attached.

Don't let my brilliant hindsight analysis fool you... in realtime, I was stupefied like the proverbial cow in front of the barn door....

:)

 

Cheerio, Vienna

5aa710d263af9_FEB23fFTT.thumb.gif.682657452fa500c5fb8f2830845547ff.gif

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Today's Review;

 

6 Trades:

 

Trade 1:

B 2 @ 1364.50

S 1 @ 1365.75 +1.25

S 1 @ 1366.00 +1.50

+ 2.75

 

Trade 2:

S @ 1364.75

B @ 1365.50

- 0.50 (was up 1.75)

 

Trade 3:

B @ 1365.50

S @ 1365.50

0 (was up +2.00)

 

Trade 4:

S @ 1365.00

B @ 1362.25

+ 2.75

 

Trade 5;

S @ 1362.25

S @ 1363.00

B 2 @ 1363.50

- 1.75 (was up 0.75)

 

Trade 6:

B @ 1365.50

S @ 1365.50

0 (was up 0.50)

 

Total:

+ 1.75

Was up +10.00

 

So I'm thinking I was the right side of the market for 10 points

in a day with a 6 point range.

 

Also thinking what's the point of entering if i don't know when to exit.

 

I admit Trade 5 the sell at 1362.25 was wrong, although I recall seeing incresing red vol

when I went in, but the bar turned and closed up pronto.

 

I'm pleased with the rest, entry wise.

Although being late to exit leads to being late to enter the other way.

 

I didn't like the way things topped out on that doji, not that what I think has any baring.

It does however highlight two things;

1) this method is based on difinitive principles but often involves a degree of ambiguity.

That may seem a contradiction hence number two:

2) this method is, imo, a sort of reverse to normal thinking.

ie: here we take action and then see if it is confirmed, where as a "normal" approach, for the sake of a better word, is the opposite.

3) When what we require for that confirmation does not arrive, that in itself becomes a confirmation, so there is a sort of overlap loop that we , again in my oppinion, need to always cary in our mind.

 

Doing todays posts reminded me of how hard it is to post and a certain sense of the forum as a whole. I hope it's been at the least enjoyable and at the most, helpfull.

 

Someone, and we all know who, gave an inordinate amount of their time and effort to a lot of those that I see post from time to time and/or log in for a read.

 

I'm no authority by any means, and don't mean to imply I am, but what ever I know, baring the inordinate help shared with one particular member (who if reading these last posts is probably scratching their head thinking WTF. High there btw) most is out of the effort given by yours truely.

 

So this is sort of a respect to him and hope he is well.

 

Hmmm..I need to eat something..

 

Cheers

Edited by FilterTip

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This is regarding your question regarding yesterday... see attached.

Don't let my brilliant hindsight analysis fool you... in realtime, I was stupefied like the proverbial cow in front of the barn door....

:)

 

Cheerio, Vienna

 

Vienna.

Thx, that is very helpful.

I admit I've not ventured down the finer tool set for a long time.

I will need and want to, as even intra bar analysis on a coarse 5 min chart is required.

Many thx.

 

Btw, with the pigs ear I made of that sell @1362.25 no problem with the farm stuff..

 

I've been hungry all day and more so now.

Whether you know it or not a Vienna is a kosher sausage that you boil, not grill.

With rhye bread and mustard it's pretty good. :)

 

Cheers.

Edited by FilterTip

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Today's Review;

 

6 Trades:

 

Trade 1:

B 2 @ 1364.50

S 1 @ 1365.75 +1.25

S 1 @ 1366.00 +1.50

+ 2.75

 

Trade 2:

S @ 1364.75

B @ 1365.50

- 0.50 (was up 1.75)

 

Trade 3:

B @ 1365.50

S @ 1365.50

0 (was up +2.00)

 

Trade 4:

S @ 1365.00

B @ 1362.25

+ 2.75

 

Trade 5;

S @ 1362.25

S @ 1363.00

B 2 @ 1363.50

- 1.75 (was up 0.75)

 

Trade 6:

B @ 1365.50

S @ 1365.50

0 (was up 0.50)

 

Total:

+ 1.75

Was up +10.00

 

So I'm thinking I was the right side of the market for 10 points

in a day with a 6 point range.

 

Also thinking what's the point of entering if i don't know when to exit.

 

I admit Trade 5 the sell at 1362.25 was wrong, although I recall seeing incresing red vol

when I went in, but the bar turned and closed up pronto.

 

I'm pleased with the rest, entry wise.

Although being late to exit leads to being late to enter the other way.

 

I didn't like the way things topped out on that doji, not that what I think has any baring.

It does however highlight two things;

1) this method is based on difinitive principles but often involves a degree of ambiguity.

That may seem a contradiction hence number two:

2) this method is, imo, a sort of reverse to normal thinking.

ie: here we take action and then see if it is confirmed, where as a "normal" approach, for the sake of a better word, is the opposite.

3) When what we require for that confirmation does not arrive, that in itself becomes a confirmation, so there is a sort of overlap loop that we , again in my oppinion, need to always cary in our mind.

 

Doing todays posts reminded me of how hard it is to post and a certain sense of the forum as a whole. I hope it's been at the least enjoyable and at the most, helpfull.

 

Someone, and we all know who, gave an inordinate amount of their time and effort to a lot of those that I see post from time to time and/or log in for a read.

 

I'm no authority by any means, and don't mean to imply I am, but what ever I know, baring the inordinate help shared with one particular member (who if reading these last posts is probably scratching their head thinking WTF. High there btw) most is out of the effort given by yours truely.

 

So this is sort of a respect to him and hope he is well.

 

Hmmm..I need to eat something..

 

Cheers

 

This ridiculous time limit on editing posts;

 

my math was wrong;

 

Total = + 3.25 (not + 1.75) apologies.

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1) this method is based on difinitive principles but often involves a degree of ambiguity.

That may seem a contradiction hence number two:

2) this method is, imo, a sort of reverse to normal thinking.

ie: here we take action and then see if it is confirmed, where as a "normal" approach, for the sake of a better word, is the opposite.

3) When what we require for that confirmation does not arrive, that in itself becomes a confirmation, so there is a sort of overlap loop that we , again in my oppinion, need to always cary in our mind.

Cheers

 

2) in Spyder's words "what must come next?"

3) in Spyder's words "what wasn't that?

 

Its all part of M-A-D-A specifically Analyze.

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Question re Tick charts:

 

Is there somebody here who really gets the Tick charts?

 

I have been staring at them for weeks now, attempting to see what JH describes in the Video (the pairs shifting "favoring" etc.), and what is described in the threads...and I just can't see it...perhaps I am especially dense in this regard...

 

So, if you do know, please kindly point out to me what I am missing...I included 3 FTT's from yesterday and today...It is clear to me that you can visualize gaussians etc on that chart as well...but what I am looking for is the specific point on the Tick-chart where you see the change in direction.... I can't seem to be able to do that, even in hindsight...:-D

 

many thanks,

 

Vienna

As you wrote, you can use the OTR chart to draw containers and gaussians x2x2y2x, but you can also watch in real time the price flipping between bid and ask. You can see this flipping in real time on the 5 min chart too, but it is more clearly seen on the OTR, because you don't have the constraint of the time axis and the OHLC bars. The price flipping shows alternate periods of sticking to either the high or the low of the pair. You can see how the dominance changes based on the relative duration of the sicking high and low. You can see how this ratio changes from favoring on side to favoring the other side. If you look at a tick chart you can get an idea of that flipping. It's not like you could differentiate a 5 minute FTT on the OTR chart from other fine dominance changes on the fastest fractal, but that 5 min FTT is one of those dominance changes, so by aligning all the fractals' changes you can (seemingly) pin point the ideal 5 min dominance change point down to one tick.

5aa710d29ba28_viennasFTT1plus2tick.thumb.png.1211c9981a913dea555fc245b376b75c.png

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As you wrote, you can use the OTR chart to draw containers and gaussians x2x2y2x, but you can also watch in real time the price flipping between bid and ask. You can see this flipping in real time on the 5 min chart too, but it is more clearly seen on the OTR, because you don't have the constraint of the time axis and the OHLC bars. The price flipping shows alternate periods of sticking to either the high or the low of the pair. You can see how the dominance changes based on the relative duration of the sicking high and low. You can see how this ratio changes from favoring on side to favoring the other side. If you look at a tick chart you can get an idea of that flipping. It's not like you could differentiate a 5 minute FTT on the OTR chart from other fine dominance changes on the fastest fractal, but that 5 min FTT is one of those dominance changes, so by aligning all the fractals' changes you can (seemingly) pin point the ideal 5 min dominance change point down to one tick.

 

 

You are assuming you know it is an FTT. However if it is a flaw, which may look like an FTT (What wasn't that?) which in it self is looking backwards. The same thought process MADA applies on all fractals. Once an event has happened it is easy to identify that event.

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You are assuming you know it is an ftt. However if it is a flaw, which may look like an ftt (what wasn't that?) which in it self is looking backwards.

 

The same thought process mada applies on all fractals. Once an event has happened it is easy to identify that event.

I understand things differently, so I reach different conclusions.

 

Firstly, MADA is applied from coarse to fine, not simultaneously, in parallel.

 

Secondly, trends overlap, so there is a period over which the dominance gradually changes. There is a tipping point, but the process is not sudden. Going from coarse to fine, this period gets narrower.

 

Also, WMCN is not prediction, and WWT / WTF is a rare exception, not a tool.

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.....The price flipping shows alternate periods of sticking to either the high or the low of the pair.....You can see how the dominance changes based on the relative duration of the sicking high and low. ....You can see how this ratio changes from favoring on side to favoring the other side.......you can (seemingly) pin point the ideal 5 min dominance change point down to one tick.

 

Thank you for you contributions, I really appreciate them! You have been around, and I find your comments very good...could you do me a favor? Could you put an arrow on my charts where exactly "this ratio changes from favoring on side to favoring the other side"? (I know about the direction of the sweep ES>YM> Str-Sq>Dom> Tick chart), and I know this stuff is dangerous if you look at it out of context...that is why I selected actual FTT's)...the idea is, if it is visible in realtime, it should be visible in hindsight, right? Same as an FTT, which can be clearly seen on a 5 Min chart after the fact....

 

"the relative duration of the sticking high and low"- what exactly do you mean by that? I know that during an FTT bar, price kind of hesitates and stalls as it makes an attempt to reach the LTL (Ivo wrote about this), so this effect is something that could be shown only on video, not on a static chart....Are you saying the OTR Chart does the same? JH's instructions on his video seemed to imply that the pattern of the OTR bars showed the shift (so it should be visible in hindsight)...

 

So: do you mean that more OTR Bars get printed on one side than on another, until the shift, or do you mean that individual OTR bars take longer to form (which would make it hard to see in hindsight)...?

 

Thanks for your time!

 

Vienna

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I've done very little with it myself, but this may be useful. Here's the picture that was posted along with Spydertrader's introduction of the tick chart in the first futures journal. The picture shows more bars on the dominant side of a 2 pair, though I would guess that time and also volume would be parts of the puzzle as well.

2_pair_spikes.jpg.85a8580876b90473233d4fe515385fd3.jpg

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Here's the picture that was posted along with Spydertrader's introduction of the tick chart in the first futures journal. The picture shows more bars on the dominant side of a 2 pair, though I would guess that time and also volume would be parts of the puzzle as well.

 

Yes thank you, I am aware of that schematic by JH, that is what I was referring to...my problem is, I can't seem to locate this pattern on most FTT's I look at...take my examples. I can kind of see this (=shift in the number of bars) occurring in one of the 3 examples but not in the 2 others...

 

Best,

 

Vienna

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Thank you for you contributions, I really appreciate them! You have been around, and I find your comments very good...could you do me a favor? Could you put an arrow on my charts where exactly "this ratio changes from favoring on side to favoring the other side"? (I know about the direction of the sweep ES>YM> Str-Sq>Dom> Tick chart), and I know this stuff is dangerous if you look at it out of context...that is why I selected actual FTT's)...the idea is, if it is visible in realtime, it should be visible in hindsight, right? Same as an FTT, which can be clearly seen on a 5 Min chart after the fact....

 

"the relative duration of the sticking high and low"- what exactly do you mean by that? I know that during an FTT bar, price kind of hesitates and stalls as it makes an attempt to reach the LTL (Ivo wrote about this), so this effect is something that could be shown only on video, not on a static chart....Are you saying the OTR Chart does the same? JH's instructions on his video seemed to imply that the pattern of the OTR bars showed the shift (so it should be visible in hindsight)...

 

So: do you mean that more OTR Bars get printed on one side than on another, until the shift, or do you mean that individual OTR bars take longer to form (which would make it hard to see in hindsight)...?

 

Thanks for your time!

 

Vienna

You're correct: the stickiness to bid and ask, as well as the stickiness to one bid/ask pair and to the next bid/ask pair can be seen in real time, or on a video recording. The tick chart gives you some idea of this happening, but both the OTR and the tick charts use event driven x-axis.

 

To illustrate what I tried to explain in my previous reply to you, and to answer your latest questions I attach three pictures:

 

1st: Jack's well known hand drawing "2 pair spike", on which I grouped the bid/ask flips in red and green squares. The drawing depicts how events would be seen on a time driven x-axis display. Time rolls on the x-axis at constant speed, so the OTR bars would appear of variable width, function of how long it takes the price to go to the next bid/ask pair. Red squares mark lower new bid/ask, and green squares mark higher new bid/ask pairs.

 

2nd: I blew out the charts around the first example you brought in discussion. By annotating RTLs and gaussians on the OTR, it can be seen how nicely the things roll from long dominance to short dominance, with completed sequences on multiple sub-fractals (NO NOISE!). In yellow I highlighted the ultimate change window on both the OTR and the tick charts. On the tick chart it can be seen how the bid/ask pair that follows the last high (very short) peak "sticks" for longer time. The OTR and the tick charts have different x-axis being driven by different events. The correspondence between events can be easily deciphered using the 5 minute red vertical makers, and the 2 minute white vertical markers, corresponding to the ES 5 minute, and YM 2 minute OHLC charts.

 

3rd: I marked in red the change in dominance on your chart snippet, and on my added tick chart snippet.

2_pair_spikes.jpg.4b6b8a3568533c4f888bd3f0707b3f39.jpg

5aa710d2cccda_2tickandotrchange.thumb.png.fb859fd4e3f917699a5f2dcccccf3238.png

5aa710d2d30b7_viennasFTT1plus2tick.thumb.png.c99140877343f0ff0dd5d299c4214e54.png

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This is my view.

5 min and 15 min attached.

 

Got a bit messed up first thing (platform issues don't you know)

 

Presently long.

 

I'll see how things pan out at end of day.

(not a "blow by blow" today you'll all be pleased to hear :) )

5aa710d30c8d0_ES03-12(5Min)27_02_2012.e.thumb.jpg.b10c3debc572b3ecdfdcc1ffb513c631.jpg

5aa710d312f7a_ES03-12(15Min)27_02_2012.a.thumb.jpg.9ff7e726677ca3c89b4c58f47e8f6de8.jpg

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That turned out well.

Did exactly what it said on the tin..

 

Update 2

I see that blue largest container ending.

 

Added the 15min.

But the NoGap chart's gone wierd on me, so not sure about the angle

of the largest blue container.

 

Presently short.

5aa710d3a9d60_ES03-12(5Min)27_02_2012.j.thumb.jpg.f946f67b345090383cd794c4fb7cf613.jpg

5aa710d3b0489_ES03-12(15Min)27_02_2012.b.thumb.jpg.67e41fd127645aa59147f425b9727207.jpg

Edited by FilterTip

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That turned out well.

Did exactly what it said on the tin..

 

Update 2

I see that blue largest container ending.

 

Added the 15min.

But the NoGap chart's gone wierd on me, ....

make sure bar look back in setting = infinite instead of default 256

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make sure bar look back in setting = infinite instead of default 256

 

Thank you Corey for that info.

I appear to have had a NoGapPrevious day loaded fro some reason.

 

Have put on the NoGap (more than previous day)

 

Got my orientaion on that large blue container,

which has VE'd, oh my now what...

Have put on a new RTL to account for that VE, so things have ended up at the same place

in the end, being short that is.

 

thx again..

5aa710d3bdaf1_ES03-12(5Min)27_02_2012.k.thumb.jpg.a98fd002d471e3e889196416017180c9.jpg

5aa710d3c3c47_ES03-12(15Min)27_02_2012.c.thumb.jpg.e846eda066df4e4b7194ec64733660c4.jpg

Edited by FilterTip

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    • Hello citizens of the U.S. The hundred year trade war has leaked over into a trading war. Your equity holdings are under attack by huge sovereign funds shorting relentlessly... running basically the opposite of  PPT operations.  As an American you are blessed to be totally responsible for your own assets - the govt won’t and can’t take care of you, your lame ass whuss ‘retail’ fund managers go catatonic  and can't / won’t help you, etc etc.... If you’re going to hold your positions, it’s on you to hedge your holdings.   Don’t blame Trump, don’t blame the system, don’t even blame the ‘enemies’ - ie don’t blame period.  Just occupy the freedom and responsibility you have and act.  The only mistake ‘Trump’ made so far was not to warn you more explicitly and remind you of your options to hedge weeks ago.   FWIW when Trump got elected... I also failed to explicitly remind you... just sayin’
    • Date: 7th April 2025.   Asian Markets Plunge as US-China Trade War Escalates; Wall Street Futures Signal Further Turmoil.   Global financial markets extended last week’s massive sell-off as tensions between the US and its major trading partners deepened, rattling investors and prompting sharp declines across equities, commodities, and currencies. The fallout from President Trump’s sweeping new tariff measures continued to spread, raising fears of a full-blown trade war and economic recession.   Asian stock markets plunged on Monday, extending a global market rout fueled by rising tensions between the US and China. The latest wave of aggressive tariffs and retaliatory measures has unnerved investors worldwide, triggering sharp sell-offs across the Asia-Pacific region.   Asian equities led the global rout on Monday, with dramatic losses seen across the region. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index tumbled more than 8% shortly after the open, while the broader Topix fell over 6.5%, recovering only slightly from steeper losses. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite sank 6.7%, and the blue-chip CSI300 dropped 7.5% as markets reopened following a public holiday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index opened more than 9% lower, reflecting deep concerns about escalating trade tensions.           South Korea’s Kospi dropped 4.8%, triggering a circuit breaker designed to curb panic selling. Taiwan’s Taiex index collapsed by nearly 10%, with major tech exporters like TSMC and Foxconn hitting circuit breaker limits after each fell close to 10%. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 shed as much as 6.3%, and New Zealand’s NZX 50 lost over 3.5%.   Despite the escalation, Beijing has adopted a measured tone. Chinese officials urged investors not to panic and assured markets that the country has the tools to mitigate economic shocks. At the same time, they left the door open for renewed trade talks, though no specific timeline has been set.   US Stock Futures Plunge Ahead of Monday Open   US stock futures pointed to another brutal day on Wall Street. Futures tied to the S&P 500 dropped over 3%, Nasdaq futures sank 4%, and Dow Jones futures lost 2.5%—equivalent to nearly 1,000 points. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, down more than 20% from its recent highs, while the S&P 500 is nearing bear territory. The Dow closed last week in correction. Oil prices followed suit, with WTI crude dropping over 4% to $59.49 per barrel—its lowest since April 2021.   Wall Street closed last week in disarray, erasing more than $5 trillion in value amid fears of an all-out trade war. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, sinking more than 20% from its recent peak. The S&P 500 is approaching bear territory, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has slipped firmly into correction territory.   German Banks Hit Hard Amid Escalating Trade Tensions   German banking stocks were among the worst hit in Europe. Shares of Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank plunged between 9.5% and 10.3% during early Frankfurt trading, compounding Friday’s steep losses. Fears over a global trade war and looming recession are severely impacting the financial sector, particularly export-driven economies like Germany.   Eurozone Growth at Risk   Eurozone officials are bracing for economic fallout, with Greek central bank governor Yannis Stournaras warning that Trump’s tariff policy could reduce eurozone GDP by up to 1%. The EU is preparing retaliatory tariffs on $28 billion worth of American goods—ranging from steel and aluminium to consumer products like dental floss and luxury jewellery.   Starting Wednesday, the US is expected to impose 25% tariffs on key EU exports, with Brussels ready to respond with its own 20% levies on nearly all remaining American imports.   UK Faces £22 Billion Economic Blow   In the UK, fresh research from KPMG revealed that the British economy could shrink by £21.6 billion by 2027 due to US-imposed tariffs. The analysis points to a 0.8% dip in economic output over the next two years, undermining Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ growth agenda. The report also warned of additional fiscal pressure that may lead to future tax increases and public spending cuts.   Wall Street Braces for Recession   Goldman Sachs revised its US recession probability to 45% within the next year, citing tighter financial conditions and rising policy uncertainty. This marks a sharp jump from the 35% risk estimated just last month—and more than double January’s 20% projection. J.P. Morgan issued a bleaker outlook, now forecasting a 60% chance of recession both in the US and globally.   Global Leaders Respond as Trade Tensions Deepen   The dramatic market sell-off was triggered by China’s sweeping retaliation to a new round of US tariffs, which included a 34% levy on all American imports. Beijing’s state-run People’s Daily released a defiant statement, asserting that China has the tools and resilience to withstand economic pressure from Washington. ‘We’ve built up experience after years of trade conflict and are prepared with a full arsenal of countermeasures,’ it stated.   Around the world, policymakers are responding to the growing threat of a trade-led economic slowdown. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced plans to appeal directly to Washington and push for tariff relief, following the US administration’s decision to impose a blanket 24% tariff on Japanese imports. He aims to visit the US soon to present Japan’s case as a fair trade partner.   In Taiwan, President Lai Ching-te said his administration would work closely with Washington to remove trade barriers and increase purchases of American goods in an effort to reduce the bilateral trade deficit. The island's defence ministry has also submitted a new list of US military procurements to highlight its strategic partnership.   Economists and strategists are warning of deeper economic consequences. Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard, said the scale and speed of these tariffs could result in far more severe damage than previously anticipated. ‘This isn’t just a bilateral conflict anymore — more countries are likely to respond in the coming weeks,’ he noted.   Analysts at Barclays cautioned that smaller Asian economies, such as Singapore and South Korea, may face challenges in negotiating with Washington and are already adjusting their economic growth forecasts downward in response to the unfolding trade crisis.           Oil Prices Sink on Demand Concerns   Crude oil continued its sharp slide on Monday, driven by recession fears and weakened global demand. Brent fell 3.9% to $63.04 a barrel, while WTI plunged over 4% to $59.49—both benchmarks marking weekly losses exceeding 10%. Analysts say inflationary pressures and slowing economic activity may drag demand down, even though energy imports were excluded from the latest round of tariffs.   Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights noted, ‘The market is struggling to find a bottom. Until there’s a clear signal from Trump that calms recession fears, crude prices will remain under pressure.’   OPEC+ Adds Further Pressure with Output Hike   Bearish sentiment intensified after OPEC+ announced it would boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, far surpassing the expected 135,000 bpd. The alliance called on overproducing nations to submit compensation plans by April 15. Analysts fear this surprise move could undo years of supply discipline and weigh further on already fragile oil markets.   Global political risks also flared over the weekend. Iran rejected US proposals for direct nuclear negotiations and warned of potential military action. Meanwhile, Russia claimed fresh territorial gains in Ukraine’s Sumy region and ramped up attacks on surrounding areas—further darkening the outlook for markets.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • AMZN Amazon stock watch, good buying (+313%) toi hold onto the 173.32 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?AMZN
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