Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

 

You probably are very sensitized to Price bar behavior,

 

thanks,

 

Vienna

 

That is true... Of course the issue is to be "sensitized" on the right moment (context) and not to see "change" on a micoscopic level somewhere where it doesn't matter much.. New lows, new highs, RTL, LTL are good moments.

 

Sometimes a clear outside bar doesn't mean much...and sometimes one tick means a big change. It's very subtle, delicate. You have to know when to look for things. Actually when it seems obvious (for the outside world, not for trained FTT traders) it's probably not true as it's the markets job to f**k people.

 

Ivo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi all,

 

I can only identify traverse FTT bars after the traverse RTL is broken, i.e. several bars later than the FTT bar.

 

Do you guys have any lagging in identifying the FTT bar? Are you able to spot a FTT bar during its formation?

 

TIA.

 

Regards,

Ki

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Vienna,

 

It would be interesting to make screenshots of all different kinds of FTT's that exists and learn about them. Even better: video capture.

 

Ivo

 

Ivo,

 

great stuff...love the explanation about the timing.

Had been thinking about doing exactly that (the screenshots or the camtasia), or to collect them in a systematic way. After reading your comments I made a schematic drawing about the cases that can occur at FTT's (XIO see the IBGS)...Ivo -I know you hate the terms :)

Of course these are schematics, for example the VE could occur 2 bars earlier etc...

I indicated the breakout point that would have to occur to confirm the FTT after the fact...

Note that the .pdf file has 2 pages.

 

What might be interesting is to add volume/ PRV that one would expect to see in these situations...maybe I'll give it a shot.

 

good trading,

 

Vienna

FTT CASES.pdf

Edited by vienna

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ivo,

 

one more:

 

Any thoughts about FBO's?

When do your recognize it is an FBO and not a BO? I seem to have gotten out of trades that closed right at the line (with dec. Volume,sometimes increasing), then the next bar went thru and I realized I had gotten out too early..sometimes the opposite etc.

 

What do you look for to tell you if it's the real thing?

 

Thanks,

 

Vienna

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well this is all static and there are some more options. For example there's the Sym pennant/inside bar FTT...which I would enter after breakout instead of in the inside bar itself...

 

The entry of the 1st case I find a little early. I'd wait for price to pass the open.

 

Just look for FTT anytime after a VE. If you're in a position that VE might be a great moment to take profits which is hard pyschologically (but what isn't.??)....freeing your mind and look for the next opportunity which might be one bar later. Sometimes there is no VE...sometimes in slow market price keeps on hugging the RTL and then suddenly might go thru it. Allow yourself only a great entry (FTT, pt 3) else there's a good chance you would catch a point 2 or worse.

 

Ivo

 

 

 

 

Ivo,

 

great stuff...love the explanation about the timing.

Had been thinking about doing exactly that (the screenshots or the camtasia), or to collect them in a systematic way. After reading your comments I made a schematic drawing about the cases that can occur at FTT's (XIO see the IBGS)...Ivo -I know you hate the terms :)

Of course these are schematics, for example the VE could occur 2 bars earlier etc...

I indicated the breakout point that would have to occur to confirm the FTT after the fact...

Note that the .pdf file has 2 pages.

 

What might be interesting is to add volume/ PRV that one would expect to see in these situations...maybe I'll give it a shot.

 

good trading,

 

Vienna

Edited by ivob

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If price goes sideways thru the RTL and there's not much happening then it's just the volatility that decreased...but the original channel is still intact.The channel is just widening. It's important for bars to let them finish.

 

If price goes thru the RTL and bounces back making a tail (in candlestick terms) it FBO's.

 

In general a BO needs to be strong (Spyder says increasing volume). Else it might be FBO, channel widening, create a point 3 right after it and you get chopped 2 or 3 times. A BO has to convince me... (WOW....nice BO) else I am on the lookout for the FBO.

 

 

 

Ivo

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ivo,

 

one more:

 

Any thoughts about FBO's?

When do your recognize it is an FBO and not a BO? I seem to have gotten out of trades that closed right at the line (with dec. Volume,sometimes increasing), then the next bar went thru and I realized I had gotten out too early..sometimes the opposite etc.

 

What do you look for to tell you if it's the real thing?

 

Thanks,

 

Vienna

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was thinking about the question....

 

At BO price acts as if the RTL simply does not exists anymore... (which in fact is true...).... It should go thru without hesitation. If it hesitates...goes up and down wildly..etc then apparently there are still some issues there at RTL and buyers and sellers are still in balance (high volume...I guess). Price will probably FBO and the original trendline respected.

 

When price simply goes thru (without hesitation!! and not sideways) then it's not there anymore. We have BO. As long there's no BO we have FBO.

 

Ivo

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ivo,

 

 

What do you look for to tell you if it's the real thing?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Well this is all static and there are some more options. For example there's the Sym pennant/inside bar FTT...which I would enter after breakout instead of in the inside bar itself...

 

The entry of the 1st case I find a little early. I'd wait for price to pass the open.

 

 

 

Ivo

 

Yes, saw after doing them that I had missed some...Outside bar IBGS too... will adjust. And yes, of course it's static :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I have attached the SPI futures from today. I would like to get expert opinions.

 

Thanks

 

 

Hi xioxxio,

 

The dark blue FTT cannot be the point 2 of the same container.

 

 

Regards,

 

Ki

comment_for_xioxxio.PNG.2a8df23b6d3cfa9781ac26b1db9bb990.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The entry of the 1st case I find a little early. I'd wait for price to pass the open.

 

 

 

Ivo

 

In that case, you would have the case next row down- IBGS.

 

I guess you are saying that the only way you would enter a "Case A or B" entry (the FTT bar creates both a LL and a LH) would be if you get an IBGS, intrabar?

 

 

thanks,

 

Vienna

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't know the exact definition of an IBGS. It's just that that entry seems a little early for me. I would wait for the same bar to close above the open or the next bar to go to that area see attach. The low of that bar is too close to the low of the previous bar also... looking flawish to me...

 

I recorded my EURUSD session today, just for myself with comments. I noticed I followed the rules better and the results were better also. Will do that more often.

 

Ivo

 

 

 

In that case, you would have the case next row down- IBGS.

 

I guess you are saying that the only way you would enter a "Case A or B" entry (the FTT bar creates both a LL and a LH) would be if you get an IBGS, intrabar?

 

 

thanks,

 

Vienna

Naamloos.png.a2aa6fa892cd9e2098ef9eebbb0d20da.png

Edited by ivob

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes. I trade more responsible so it seems. (not to be confused with "waiting for confirmation" because that is always bad). It's like you have to explain to someone your reasoning for what you do. I use Camtasia.

 

Ivo

 

 

Recording the trading day is very good. I monitor aloud and record that as well. I recommend it highly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yes. I trade more responsible so it seems. (not to be confused with "waiting for confirmation" because that is always bad). It's like you have to explain to someone your reasoning for what you do. I use Camtasia.

 

Ivo

 

I like to keep focused on the monitoring as much as possible and avoid explanations or reasoning in the audio. That way, if I review a segment I know exactly what I was picking up in my sweep of the screens.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I like to keep focused on the monitoring as much as possible and avoid explanations or reasoning in the audio. That way, if I review a segment I know exactly what I was picking up in my sweep of the screens.

 

Gosu, Ivo:

 

So how exactly do you use Camtasia? Do you record the whole day and then review parts in the evening? Do you review the whole thing hi-speed?

Do you just turn on Camtasia when a trade is coming up?

 

Thanks,

 

Vienna

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Well this is all static and .....

 

Ivo

 

Ivo,

 

Believe it or not, I was thinking of adding the variations I did not pick up the first time (and I found quite a few, each case can look completely different Intrabar) and then actually creating a flash animation for each instance...:)

 

Vienna

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's something that took me a long long time to understand...That you don't find in the "textbook"

 

I deleted the last bar BTW.

 

I am long...

 

We just had BO...but also we had a VE and a FTT....and no point 3 up yet....

 

So what do we do? Do we reverse...we did notice the FTT.... Our point 3 up might take us far far up...... (actually it did, 40 pips or so and I am still long..)

 

In my opinion always do what we see last... we saw the FTT so reverse..(we have to make profit no) and the point 3 up might come later which we would also trade. The FTT where we should reverse can be ignored...but that would be completely conscious...knowing a point 3 up will come. If you give up on the FTT you have to be ready to take some heat...and know a pt3 may come... If you take the FTT while the bar is forming...and you took the point 3 up (which came pretty fast after that) you would have almost no loss, depending on how quickly one would see things.

 

I can't tell how often this went wrong.. I just kept holding (we had BO...BO=hold)....

Sure of course..BO means hold.. but FTT after that means reverse!!!! The most recent thing counts so always have the channels in place because we might get FTT quickly.. (Hell..sometimes we have PT3, BO and FTT in one bar!!!) Often I did not notice the FTT....didn't have the channel lines in place etc.etc.. So we trade the FTT...no matter if we just had BO or not...FTT is FTT. The point 3 up later on might be another FTT and might take an hour to form!!!!

 

Posting this because I struggled with it a lot. All it requires is to have all trendlines in place and to notice things. Wrong or no channels means mistakes.

 

regards,

Ivo

Clipboard01.jpg.4f84ee503cb1b24fbebb07f45f4aae0f.jpg

Edited by ivob

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Here's something that took me a long long time to understand...That you don't find in the "textbook"

 

I deleted the last bar BTW.

 

I am long...

 

We just had BO...but also we had a VE and a FTT....and no point 3 up yet....

 

So what do we do? Do we reverse...we did notice the FTT.... Our point 3 up might take us far far up...... (actually it did, 40 pips or so and I am still long..)

..

regards,

Ivo

you gave away the ending so this is just my 2cents, you had order of event 3 red arrows (down+up+down) so the next order of events is 3 blue arrows (up+down+up) you already had 2 B/Os, 2 yellow arrows so it was a strong case for holding long.

2011-10-11_1129.jpg.87599c446e87f60ee499549514eb960b.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is setting yourself up for failure. (IMO) check my attach...

 

It worked out in this case but I disagree because the next time it won't work out and I know the solution so it works out in any case: Just take the FTT and go long again next bar when the FTT is invalided... I would have lost 2 pips... (or made 1 depending how quick I would be) and above all would have been on the correct side of the market again.

 

You have to follow the rules and take the FTT short. You cannot predict price will go up. You can only see change and act on it. It was change to the short side. Most BO's fail and I have seen dozens of similar examples where taking the FTT would have been better and holding would have killed you.. Actually especially today...has been very choppy. It was risky to hold..... It would have been better to reverse and reverse back.

 

regards,

Ivo

 

 

 

 

 

you gave away the ending so this is just my 2cents, you had order of event 3 red arrows (down+up+down) so the next order of events is 3 blue arrows (up+down+up) you already had 2 B/Os, 2 yellow arrows so it was a strong case for holding long.

Clipboard01.jpg.bb767c5d8b69c6010f971f950c4ab3a7.jpg

Edited by ivob

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This is setting yourself up for failure. (IMO) check my attach...

 

It worked out in this case but I disagree because the next time it won't work out and I know the solution so it works out in any case: Just take the FTT and go long again next bar when the FTT is invalided... I would have lost 2 pips... (or made 1 depending how quick I would be) and above all would have been on the correct side of the market again.

 

You have to follow the rules and take the FTT short. You cannot predict price will go up. You can only see change and act on it. It was change to the short side. Most BO's fail and I have seen dozens of similar examples where taking the FTT would have been better and holding would have killed you.. Actually especially today...has been very choppy. It was risky to hold..... It would have been better to reverse and reverse back.

 

regards,

Ivo

I see without volume there is no anticipation only trade what you see, more washes but less holding on to wrong way trade, thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Gosu, Ivo:

 

So how exactly do you use Camtasia? Do you record the whole day and then review parts in the evening? Do you review the whole thing hi-speed?

Do you just turn on Camtasia when a trade is coming up?

 

Thanks,

 

Vienna

 

I record the entire day and premarket when there are major announcements. Sometimes I will record the night session if I'm trading.

 

When I started the recordings, I used them to go over my screwups (in normal speed) to see what I was monitoring at the time. It was quite helpful to see replayed how my monitoring was almost always spot on but my stubbornness led to ignoring what I was monitoring.

 

Nowadays I rarely go back to review the recordings. This is more because of lack of time than anything else. I have no doubt that there's a lot more to learn in the videos.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I record the entire day and premarket when there are major announcements. Sometimes I will record the night session if I'm trading.

 

When I started the recordings, I used them to go over my screwups to see what I was monitoring at the time. It was quite helpful to see replayed how my monitoring was almost always spot on but my stubbornness led to ignoring what I was monitoring.

 

Nowadays I rarely go back to review the recordings. This is more because of lack of time than anything else. I have no doubt that there's a lot more to learn in the videos.

 

Gosu,

 

you wrote "Nowadays I rarely go back to review the recordings."...then why do you record (if not to review/ debrief)?

 

Thanks,

 

Vienna

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Here's something that took me a long long time to understand...That you don't find in the "textbook"

 

I deleted the last bar BTW.

 

I am long...

 

We just had BO...but also we had a VE and a FTT....and no point 3 up yet....

 

So what do we do? Do we reverse...we did notice the FTT.... Our point 3 up might take us far far up...... (actually it did, 40 pips or so and I am still long..)

 

In my opinion always do what we see last... we saw the FTT so reverse..(we have to make profit no) and the point 3 up might come later which we would also trade. The FTT where we should reverse can be ignored...but that would be completely conscious...knowing a point 3 up will come. If you give up on the FTT you have to be ready to take some heat...and know a pt3 may come... If you take the FTT while the bar is forming...and you took the point 3 up (which came pretty fast after that) you would have almost no loss, depending on how quickly one would see things.

 

I can't tell how often this went wrong.. I just kept holding (we had BO...BO=hold)....

Sure of course..BO means hold.. but FTT after that means reverse!!!! The most recent thing counts so always have the channels in place because we might get FTT quickly.. (Hell..sometimes we have PT3, BO and FTT in one bar!!!) Often I did not notice the FTT....didn't have the channel lines in place etc.etc.. So we trade the FTT...no matter if we just had BO or not...FTT is FTT. The point 3 up later on might be another FTT and might take an hour to form!!!!

 

Posting this because I struggled with it a lot. All it requires is to have all trendlines in place and to notice things. Wrong or no channels means mistakes.

 

regards,

Ivo

 

First post is 10-6-11 thru 10-11-11 with the carryover RTL(slow up container) in place from 10-10-11.Second post shows the RTL(slow up container) bounce and completion of the non dom pink container on a test of the bm(see circle highlite).hth

5aa710abe41cb_10-11-116eco.thumb.png.5c35a725e5bce698c8976c317a9b5da8.png

5aa710abebbaa_10-11-116e.thumb.png.dceb5eaaee550150e37ef03e20d242c4.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • My wife Robin just wanted some groceries.   Simple enough.   She parked the car for fifteen minutes, and returned to find a huge scratch on the side.   Someone keyed her car.   To be clear, this isn’t just any car.   It’s a Cybertruck—Elon Musk's stainless-steel spaceship on wheels. She bought it back in 2021, before Musk became everyone's favorite villain or savior.   Someone saw it parked in a grocery lot and felt compelled to carve their hatred directly into the metal.   That's what happens when you stand out.   Nobody keys a beige minivan.   When you're polarizing, you're impossible to ignore. But the irony is: the more attention something has, the harder it is to find the truth about it.   What’s Elon Musk really thinking? What are his plans? What will happen with DOGE? Is he deserving of all of this adoration and hate? Hard to say.   Ideas work the same way.   Take tariffs, for example.   Tariffs have become the Cybertrucks of economic policy. People either love them or hate them. Even if they don’t understand what they are and how they work. (Most don’t.)   That’s why, in my latest podcast (link below), I wanted to explore the “in-between” truth about tariffs.   And like Cybertrucks, I guess my thoughts on tariffs are polarizing.   Greg Gutfield mentioned me on Fox News. Harvard professors hate me now. (I wonder if they also key Cybertrucks?)   But before I show you what I think about tariffs… I have to mention something.   We’re Headed to Austin, Texas This weekend, my team and I are headed to Austin. By now, you should probably know why.   Yes, SXSW is happening. But my team and I are doing something I think is even better.   We’re putting on a FREE event on “Tech’s Turning Point.”   AI, quantum, biotech, crypto, and more—it’s all on the table.   Just now, we posted a special webpage with the agenda.   Click here to check it out and add it to your calendar.   The Truth About Tariffs People love to panic about tariffs causing inflation.   They wave around the ghost of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff from the Great Depression like it’s Exhibit A proving tariffs equal economic collapse.   But let me pop this myth:   Tariffs don’t cause inflation. And no, I'm not crazy (despite what angry professors from Harvard or Stanford might tweet at me).   Here's the deal.   Inflation isn’t when just a couple of things become pricier. It’s when your entire shopping basket—eggs, shirts, Netflix subscriptions, bananas, everything—starts costing more because your money’s worth less.   Inflation means your dollars aren’t stretching as far as they used to.   Take the 1800s.   For nearly a century, 97% of America’s revenue came from tariffs. Income tax? Didn’t exist. And guess what inflation was? Basically zero. Maybe 1% a year.   The economy was booming, and tariffs funded nearly everything. So, why do people suddenly think tariffs cause inflation today?   Tariffs are taxes on imports, yes, but prices are set by supply and demand—not tariffs.   Let me give you a simple example.   Imagine fancy potato chips from Canada cost $10, and a 20% tariff pushes that to $12. Everyone panics—prices rose! Inflation!   Nope.   If I only have $100 to spend and the price of my favorite chips goes up, I either stop buying chips or I buy, say, fewer newspapers.   If everyone stops buying newspapers because they’re overspending on chips, newspapers lower their prices or go out of business.   Overall spending stays the same, and inflation doesn’t budge.   Three quick scenarios:   We buy pricier chips, but fewer other things: Inflation unchanged. Manufacturers shift to the U.S. to avoid tariffs: Inflation unchanged (and more jobs here). We stop buying fancy chips: Prices drop again. Inflation? Still unchanged. The only thing that actually causes inflation is printing money.   Between 2020 and 2022 alone, 40% of all money ever created in history appeared overnight.   That’s why inflation shot up afterward—not because of tariffs.   Back to tariffs today.   Still No Inflation Unlike the infamous Smoot-Hawley blanket tariff (imagine Oprah handing out tariffs: "You get a tariff, and you get a tariff!"), today's tariffs are strategic.   Trump slapped tariffs on chips from Taiwan because we shouldn’t rely on a single foreign supplier for vital tech components—especially if that supplier might get invaded.   Now Taiwan Semiconductor is investing $100 billion in American manufacturing.   Strategic win, no inflation.   Then there’s Canada and Mexico—our friendly neighbors with weirdly huge tariffs on things like milk and butter (299% tariff on butter—really, Canada?).   Trump’s not blanketing everything with tariffs; he’s pressuring trade partners to lower theirs.   If they do, everybody wins. If they don’t, well, then we have a strategic trade chess game—but still no inflation.   In short, tariffs are about strategy, security, and fairness—not inflation.   Yes, blanket tariffs from the Great Depression era were dumb. Obviously. Today's targeted tariffs? Smart.   Listen to the whole podcast to hear why I think this.   And by the way, if you see a Cybertruck, don’t key it. Robin doesn’t care about your politics; she just likes her weird truck.   Maybe read a good book, relax, and leave cars alone.   (And yes, nobody keys Volkswagens, even though they were basically created by Hitler. Strange world we live in.) Source: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/the-truth-about-tariffs-busting-the-inflation-myth    Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/       
    • No, not if you are comparing apples to apples. What we call “poor” is obviously a pretty high bar but if you’re talking about like a total homeless shambling skexie in like San Fran then, no. The U.S.A. in not particularly kind to you. It is not an abuse so much as it is a sad relatively minor consequence of our optimism and industriousness.   What you consider rich changes with circumstances obviously. If you are genuinely poor in the U.S.A., you experience a quirky hodgepodge of unhelpful and/or abstract extreme lavishnesses while also being alienated from your social support network. It’s about the same as being a refugee. For a fraction of the ‘kindness’ available to you in non bio-available form, you could have simply stayed closer to your people and been MUCH better off.   It’s just a quirk of how we run the place and our values; we are more worried about interfering with people’s liberty and natural inclination to do for themselves than we are about no bums left behind. It is a slightly hurtful position and we know it; we are just scared to death of socialism cancer and we’re willing to put our money where our mouth is.   So, if you’re a bum; you got 5G, the ER will spend like $1,000,000 on you over a hangnail but then kick you out as soon as you’re “stabilized”, the logistics are surpremely efficient, you have total unchecked freedom of speech, real-estate, motels, and jobs are all natural healthy markets in perfect competition, you got compulsory three ‘R’’s, your military owns the sky, sea, space, night, information-space, and has the best hairdos, you can fill out paper and get all the stuff up to and including a Ph.D. Pretty much everything a very generous, eager, flawless go-getter with five minutes to spare would think you might need.   It’s worse. Our whole society is competitive and we do NOT value or make any kumbaya exception. The last kumbaya types we had werr the Shakers and they literally went extinct. Pueblo peoples are still around but they kind of don’t count since they were here before us. So basically, if you’re poor in the U.S.A., you are automatically a loser and a deadbeat too. You will be treated as such by anybody not specifically either paid to deal with you or shysters selling bejesus, Amway, and drugs. Plus, it ain’t safe out there. Not everybody uses muhfreedoms to lift their truck, people be thugging and bums are very vulnerable here. The history of a large mobile workforce means nobody has a village to go home to. Source: https://askdaddy.quora.com/Are-the-poor-people-in-the-United-States-the-richest-poor-people-in-the-world-6   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.