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Just wanted to clear up somethings with Journal 1 and Journal 2 that Spydertrader was involved with at ET.

 

A programmer has some questions for me.

 

Are the indicators used (MACD, Stochastic) based on daily bars, if not on what are they based?"

 

Are they basd on daily bars, but entries are end of bar based on 30 minute bars?

 

With the 30 Minute bars, so are buys and sells only on 30 minute close of bars or intrabar? If intrabar, do we need the 30 minute bars for something?

 

Thanks!

 

from the second page of the equity thread

As a result, I found that following his "universe culling" criteria to the letter worked best. Also, Entry criteria should be followed as Jack describes. The biggest "AHA!" moment came when I switched my charts to 30 minute time frame and included the MACD and Stochastic Indicators using Jack's settings (see second post for settings). Everything became crystal clear.

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I'm stuck. Today, March 23, at 14:50, the 2 min YM began a run up that lasted for about 8 minutes. At the same time volume was decreasing. This was indicative of a black non dom retrace in a red channel, but it was a dom move in a black channel. Therefore, this would suggest I was on the wrong fractal. But if there is another larger red fractal that makes sense of this, I can't find it. What am I missing? Any explanation of this would be helpful to me. TIA.
I've added a few notes to your chart snippet. I'd also suggest you try firstly to have a good understanding of the 5 min ES charts.

5aa71064f1d9c_2011-03-23ym2islandboyz-.thumb.png.64b72f5a968e61c9407039dc607dd9d2.png

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Enjoy the drill. PAY, PAY, PAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY attention to the tapes and volume ...

 

I'am in a good mood...:)

 

I'll take a stab at it...

 

#1 - faster fractal - full volume sequence - making new pt3 off of a VE

 

#2 - faster fractal B2B. It is not a traverse level FTT because we still need the rest of the volume sequence.

 

#3 - traverse level R2R (I don't understand why you threw the 2nd orange line in there?)

 

#4 - traverse level 2B

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"The biggest "AHA!" moment came when I switched my charts to 30 minute time frame and included the MACD and Stochastic Indicators using Jack's settings (see second post for settings). "

 

but is this to mean that the MACD and Stochastic are based on the 30 minutes or based on a daily.

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I'm stuck. Today, March 23, at 14:50, the 2 min YM began a run up that lasted for about 8 minutes. At the same time volume was decreasing. This was indicative of a black non dom retrace in a red channel, but it was a dom move in a black channel. Therefore, this would suggest I was on the wrong fractal. But if there is another larger red fractal that makes sense of this, I can't find it. What am I missing? Any explanation of this would be helpful to me. TIA.

 

"Decreasing black Volume represents either a retrace of a down channel or lateral movement in an up channel"(see comments by spydertrader on page 598 in ET).Hmm, dbv can be lateral movement in an UP trend.But what about where price goes up on dbv in an UP trend? When the market reaches Pt 3(usually in a slower container that is being build)sometimes high pace acceleration occurs soon after.This shows up in the volume pane as a large increasing black volume bar in an up trend.The market is building a faster container to attempt to traverse to the LTL of the slower container.As the market continues to build the faster container after the large volume bar the market sometimes trends up on dbv until it reaches it's pt 2 of the faster container.The amount of upward price movement varies but usually there is alot of overlap.Once the market reaches it's pt 2 of this faster container it continues to build the container until completion.hth

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"Decreasing black Volume represents either a retrace of a down channel or lateral movement in an up channel"(see comments by spydertrader on page 598 in ET).Hmm, dbv can be lateral movement in an UP trend.But what about where price goes up on dbv in an UP trend? When the market reaches Pt 3(usually in a slower container that is being build)sometimes high pace acceleration occurs soon after.This shows up in the volume pane as a large increasing black volume bar in an up trend.The market is building a faster container to attempt to traverse to the LTL of the slower container.As the market continues to build the faster container after the large volume bar the market sometimes trends up on dbv until it reaches it's pt 2 of the faster container.The amount of upward price movement varies but usually there is alot of overlap.Once the market reaches it's pt 2 of this faster container it continues to build the container until completion.hth

 

a diagram would be nice...

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a diagram would be nice...

 

please see highlites on price and volume panes and the sequence that follows which completes the faster container nested within the slower container.hth

1301259124656.thumb.png.d71363d6660088378fc53196c65a99f6.png

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I have a question regarding staying on the correct fractal.

 

Instead of a drawn out explanation, I will let the attachment speak for itself. :)

 

In drawings 1 & 2, the blue lines are B2B of what fractal?

 

Thanks very much for any thoughts!

howfractal.thumb.PNG.4f9d62502b058353fac8e759b7bd3b75.PNG

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I have a question regarding staying on the correct fractal.

 

Instead of a drawn out explanation, I will let the attachment speak for itself. :)

 

In drawings 1 & 2, the blue lines are B2B of what fractal?

 

Thanks very much for any thoughts!

 

can you add volume to those drawings?

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Updated drawing.

In drawing 1 & 2, the Blue lines are B2B of what fractal?

They are B2B tape of a B2B Traverse of a Channel.

5aa710665b88d_nestedfractalssk0.thumb.jpg.1e317fd37f9fa017015002eb9af70f83.jpg

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Updated drawing.

In drawing 1 & 2, the Blue lines are B2B of what fractal?

 

Some nesting container terms in particular BBT used by Jack back in 2009 ~ 2010.

5aa7106660a77_BBTSK0.jpg.dcd7f1949707b6e1a810b204de202b41.jpg

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They are B2B tape of a B2B Traverse of a Channel.

 

Thank you very much. But you ended my Blue lines a bit before where my question intended. I have updated the drawing again. :)

 

In each drawing, a Down Channel has just ended where the Blue lines begin.

 

What fractal has the Blue built?

 

Thanks!

howfractalgaus2.thumb.PNG.09b0d95191b0ceadd64f183565982274.PNG

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Thank you very much. But you ended my Blue lines a bit before where my question intended. I have updated the drawing again. :)

 

In each drawing, a Down Channel has just ended where the Blue lines begin.

 

What fractal has the Blue built?

 

Thanks!

 

I am using your Picture 1 here. See the attached.

 

This is my understanding. It does not matter your blue Tape ends below or above your Red Channel's RTL. For latter case, it does not imply a Break Out of Red Channel's RTL. The REAL Break Out occurs when we see Increasing Black Volume after Pt 3 of the B2B Traverse.

 

HTH.

howfractalgaus2.PNG.2fb32541713ae736a662ef9731c4a4b8.PNG

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I am using your Picture 1 here. See the attached.

 

This is my understanding. It does not matter your blue Tape ends below or above your Red Channel's RTL. For latter case, it does not imply a Break Out of Red Channel's RTL. The REAL Break Out occurs when we see Increasing Black Volume after Pt 3 of the B2B Traverse.

 

HTH.

 

Thank you! So, since the market is fractal, we can't go from a down Traverse straight to B2B of an up Channel. We must first build an up Traverse which is B2B of the up Channel. This makes perfect sense.

 

So, what happens when a Traverse is built of Tapes that are themselves built of something smaller?

 

Would you agree with my Gaussians for the Blue thing in this attachment?

 

Thanks again!

howfractalgaus3.PNG.05cb2357aa21cae2e2643494e8e29689.PNG

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Updated drawing.

 

In drawing 1 & 2, the Blue lines are B2B of what fractal?

 

Volume bars would be more helpful vs. gaussians. I see your drawings as 2 very different examples. It's not clear what exactly your question is because if you follow just the line thickness it's obvious - the first is a tape, the 2nd a BBT. That answer doesn't really have any value. As SK0 mentioned it doesn't matter where they end at this point.

 

In the first case based on your drawing and labels alone your skinny blue lines represent a b2b tape for the new traverse. It's laying out a general container framework without regard for volume - and showing 3 observable fractal levels.

 

Because the 2nd case is identical to the first except a fractal smaller, there must be another issue you are struggling with and the same answer as the first (a BBT in this case) is of little or no value.

 

Lets take the 2nd case. You added smaller fractal levels and need volume to tell you whether you have built BBT's, sub-tapes, tapes, goats, whatever. To be accurate, in both cases volume tells you what you've built. But in the second, while you may see from volume you have sub-tapes, it could change. You might have sub-tapes on one leg and none on the next. It can get very difficult on the 5min ES to separate them out as you continue to drop fractals, and at some point unnecessary.

 

One of the reasons we were focusing on the ES only was to simplify learning with the observable levels. (not that anyone has to stick with that) Once you go past that you have to use finer tools.

 

Hope that helps.

 

- EZ

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It's not clear what exactly your question is

- EZ

 

Thank you very much. The fact that both those diagrams were identical (just on a lower fractal) is indeed of value. I agree that it is obvious they are identical, but I have chased my tail on what I consider to be obvious too many times. It is helpful to have agreement on the obvious. :)

 

So, my exact question: What am I building?

 

Please bear with me while I explain where I am having a disconnect with reality.

 

We all know that what something is cannot be determined in a vacuum. What something looks like has no bearing on what it actually is. The key to determining what something is depends on Context and Order of Events.

 

"What am I building?" Arrive at that answer correctly and all is right with the world.

 

Please picture a stylized Channel built by 3 Traverses (my drawing #1 posted above). At the end of this Channel (where the Blue lines begin), "What am I building?". Answer: a new Channel built by Traverses built by Tapes. So, I start with a Tape which builds X2X of Traverse and so on. Simple.

 

Now please picture a stylized Traverse built by 3 Tapes with complete observable volume cycles (my drawing #2 posted above). At the beginning of this example we have a perfect X2X, but this X2X is not in position to be Pt 2 of a Traverse (it is still inside old Traverse RTL), thus it must be Pt 2 of the Tape. We have a "fractal drop". The Traverse being built then goes on and is completed by 3 perfect and identical Tapes. At the end of this Traverse (where the Blue lines begin), "What am I building?". Answer: a new Traverse built by Tapes built by BBT's/goats/whatever. So, I start with a BBT/goat/whatever which builds X2X of Tape and so on. Simple....or not.

 

This second example describes one way for lower fractals to become "visible". We have added a visible fractal. I have no issues concerning this as it seems obvious. If you disagree with my "fractal drop" please don't hesitate to call me out on this.

 

Now, finally, my disconnect with reality when it comes to asking "What am I building?".

 

If there is a mechanism for "adding" a visible fractal using the tenants of fractal overlap detailed on good 'ole Clean Page 4 there must be a way to "subtract" a visible fractal. Otherwise, eventually, Traverses would last for years. As anytime a new fractal drop occurred we would just keep digging a deeper fractal hole. But I can't for the life of me think of a way to maintain fractal integrity and "subtract" a visible fractal. I know that it must happen and that it does happen. But how could it happen without "jumping" a fractal?

 

Long story short: If the market can add a visible fractal without invalidating Clean Page 4, it must also be possible to subtract a visible fractal per Clean Page 4. How can this subtraction happen?

 

Thanks very much!

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... The key to determining what something is depends on Context and Order of Events.

 

... Long story short: If the market can add a visible fractal without invalidating Clean Page 4, it must also be possible to subtract a visible fractal per Clean Page 4. How can this subtraction happen?

 

Thanks very much!

Use volume to follow the order of events, and price to define the context.

 

When the pace decreases the next faster fractal may become visible; when pace increases the fastest visible fractal may not be visible anymore.

 

In addition to monitoring your trading fractal, it is sufficient to also follow the next faster fractal and the next slower fractal. This monitoring can be done on one chart, or on multiple charts. Using the same methodology, when you monitor only the 5min ES you normally trade one fractal slower than the one you trade monitoring both the 5min ES and the 2min YM.

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When the pace decreases the next faster fractal may become visible; when pace increases the fastest visible fractal may not be visible anymore.

 

 

Thank you very much for the reply.

 

The next faster fractal may also become visible when pace stays the same

The next faster fractal may also become visible when pace increases

Depending on the context of course.

 

Please don't take that the wrong way. I am not arguing with you. I understand and agree with you that pace can have an effect on what fractals are visible. But there must be a more fundamental explanation for how a fractal can "disappear" because an increase in pace does not always cause this to happen.

 

For example, in the attached (repost from above), if that first set of Blue lines (which is labeled as a Tape b2b) is an increase in pace, does that automatically mean that the BBT's have "disappeared"?

 

If the answer is no, then I would think that pace changes would be a clue to look for fractal changes but it can't be the "reason".

 

Again, please don't think that I am arguing with you. This is exactly the type of discussion I was hoping for.

 

Thank you very much for your thoughts!

howfractalgaus3.PNG.6e3eec6926fc933bfaf04ac1cf14c014.PNG

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Now please picture a stylized Traverse built by 3 Tapes with complete observable volume cycles (my drawing #2 posted above). At the beginning

of this example we have a perfect X2X, but this X2X is not in position to be Pt 2 of a Traverse (it is still inside old Traverse RTL), thus it must be Pt 2 of the Tape. We have a "fractal drop". The Traverse being built then goes on and is completed by 3 perfect and identical Tapes. At the end of this Traverse (where the Blue lines begin), "What am I building?". Answer: a new Traverse built by Tapes built by BBT's/goats/whatever. So, I start with a BBT/goat/whatever which builds X2X of Tape and so on. Simple....or not.

It would be very helpful if you could put the notes with arrows on the chart to note exactly which places you are referring to. I have too many clarifying questions already. Regarding the fractal drop: Why is there a fractal drop at that point? How do you know the first X2X is a BBT and not a tape? The very start of this chart appears to be a channel pt3 and last traverse leg's pt1 and a tape/BBT pt1.

 

This second example describes one way for lower fractals to become "visible". We have added a visible fractal. How?I have no issues concerning this as it seems obvious. If you disagree with my "fractal drop" please don't hesitate to call me out on this.

 

Now, finally, my disconnect with reality when it comes to asking "What am I building?".

 

If there is a mechanism for "adding" a visible fractal using the tenants of fractal overlap detailed on good 'ole Clean Page 4 there must be a way to "subtract" a visible fractal. Otherwise, eventually, Traverses would last for years. As anytime a new fractal drop occurred we would just keep digging a deeper fractal hole. But I can't for the life of me think of a way to maintain fractal integrity and "subtract" a visible fractal. I know that it must happen and that it does happen. But how could it happen without "jumping" a fractal?

 

Long story short: If the market can add a visible fractal without invalidating Clean Page 4, it must also be possible to subtract a visible fractal per Clean Page 4. How can this subtraction happen?

 

Thanks very much!

 

When you break a RTL you are coming out of the lower level, maybe several. Maybe you're having trouble with acceleration and deceleration of the containers? Or not properly accounting for acceleration? That would be my guess.

 

A traverse could only go on forever if it never broke a RTL. On that note, since there have been tapes lasting for more than a day, a traverse could go on a while.

 

If I have a tape, and there are several fractals within that tape, once the tape's RTL is broken all those fractals, no matter how many, are done. The tape doesn't change, though it might accelerate or decelerate. A tape has certain requirements.

 

Could be you're using only price to separate fractals and that's the problem? If you're trying to make sure you have equal sets of sub-sub containers for each level you will run into trouble because they may not be there on the next leg. You end up try to force a type of symmetry that isn't visible anymore because market conditions changed. All of a sudden volume picks up in the afternoon, all the sub-subs disappear and your still trying to draw them in.

 

If clean page 4 is a problem then throw it out.

 

If there is a pair of trending bars, those 2 bars could represent a sub-tape, BBT or Tape.

 

Regards,

 

EZ

5aa710667f920_howfractalgaus3-edit.PNG.9b2943ea857ed9d56e9d6fc2436db345.PNG

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Thank you! So, since the market is fractal, we can't go from a down Traverse straight to B2B of an up Channel. We must first build an up Traverse which is B2B of the up Channel. This makes perfect sense.

 

So, what happens when a Traverse is built of Tapes that are themselves built of something smaller?

 

Would you agree with my Gaussians for the Blue thing in this attachment?

 

Thanks again!

 

Breakeven,

 

Don't create another naming conventions for your convenience but confuse everyone here.

 

To my best understanding, there are two generally accepted naming conventions. One is Tape, Traverse and Channel where a Tape is built bar to bar. Another one is Fast Fractal, Trading Fractal and Slow Fractal where a Fast Fractal is built bar to bar.

 

As I mentioned in post #2813 with comments on your Picture 2 in prior page, Jack created another one with sub-BBT being built bar to bar AND in a 5-min chart. I believe most readers here are not fond of using them. Lastly, your naming in Picture 2 is not correct.

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... The next faster fractal may also become visible when pace stays the same

The next faster fractal may also become visible when pace increases

Depending on the context of course.

 

... I understand and agree with you that pace can have an effect on what fractals are visible. But there must be a more fundamental explanation for how a fractal can "disappear" because an increase in pace does not always cause this to happen.

 

... This is exactly the type of discussion I was hoping for.

 

Thank you very much for your thoughts!

A quick reply:

 

Fast / slow pace means high / low market activity, due to various reasons. I've attached a theoretical example of how the same waveform is seen under fast and slow (variable) paces. The vertical lines being considered 5 minute chart bars, it can be seen how under slower pace a faster fractal becomes visible.

 

I don't agree with your quoted statements, but can't say / prove they're incorrect. Maybe you'd like to move from theoretical to real examples.

paces.thumb.png.fdce36dc9989399bd82ffe203313b7d4.png

5aa710668961e_pacesbars.thumb.png.37f11d4af2a492911949898349359cc8.png

5aa710668d774_pacesbarsannotated.thumb.png.ad7e5abba7b00b0d9cad5d011dfee9d4.png

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Containers

 

Any line drawn on a chart must have a rational, objective, definable and consistant reason for doing so. Make sure all lines on your chart conform to this definition.

 

- Spydertrader

 

We define Tapes, Traverses and Channels by each having certain characteristics which represent various geometric shapes. Unfortuantely, many people attempt to compare and contrast based on a visual derived from the Price Pane. Such a paradigm, quite frequently, creates opportunity for error. I recommend the lower portion of your chart in order to determine whether or not one has a Tape, Traverse or Channel.

 

- Spydertrader

 

Whatever something "looks like" in the Price Pane falls under the catagory of unimportant because a tape does not ever look like a traverse (or anything else) when observing the Volume Pane.

 

You can call something a tape, traverse or channel (hell, call it a goat if you like) by looking at a Price Pane, but Volume always indicates exactly what the market has built for you to see.

 

Without exception.

 

Three choices exist, and we call these three choices tapes, traverses and channels (skinny, medium and thick; or L1, L2 & L3 if you prefer different nomenclature).

 

No more 'Chubby' tapes.

No more 'Faster Fractal' Traverses.

No more Lateral 'Movement.'

 

Tapes build Traverses and Traverses Build Channels.

 

Again, whatever something "looks like" in the Price pane does not matter in the slightest. The Gaussians always tell you what the market has created.

 

Without a doubt, if asked, a roomful of traders would provide as many answers with respect to what the market created across most of today (7-20-2009). Again, if one chooses to look at what today's 'something' "looks like" by observing the Price Pane, a variety of opinions develop. However, only one possible accurate answer exists, and it resides in the signals the market has provided in The Volume Pane.

 

HTH.

 

- Spydertrader

 

 

RE: Clean page 4

 

If you logically think this through, you'll realize you already know the answer to this question.

 

All trends overlap at the FTT (Point One). No Trends overlap at Point Two. Ocassionally, some trends overlap at Point Three (what Jack and Neoxx discused as "the golden triangle").

 

What Volume Sequences cause Price to move from Point One to an FTT?

 

What Volume sequences push Price from Point One to Point Two? To Point Three?

 

Once one arrives at an FTT of a specific fractal, then the non-stationary window (for that specific fractal) has closed. As such, 'sequences' are not shared in the fashion your question specifies.

 

- Spydertrader

 

More on containers:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/34/price-volume-relationship-6320-92.html#post96963

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/34/price-volume-relationship-6320-92.html#post97027

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Fractals

 

We want to always annotate three fractal levels. Sometimes, we have the ability to see more than three fractal levels. Sometimes it is difficult just to see three levels.

 

The market provides clues as to when one can expect difficulty seeing three levels, as well as, times when we can expect to see more than three levels.

 

- Spydertrader

 

You should consider the effect changing Pace has on your ability to 'see' things clearly, and start again. You should also consider annotating three fractals in an effort to see how the nesting process works. Sometimes proper nesting of fractals can make things a bit easier to see.

 

- Spydertrader

 

Vocabulary

 

Then name the differences anything you like. Up / Down, Left / Right, Goat / Hedgehog or whatever other binary pattern suits you. The vocabulary isn't nearly as important as recognizing a subtle difference in the object itself (at this point in time). For example, the first example of a Lateral (today), moved in the opposite direction of the previous bar (Note, how I did not use Dominant nor Non-Dominant here). Whereas, yesterday's examples formed in the same direction as the previous bar (to the actual lateral). Clearly, such a thing would represent a subtle difference.

 

At some point in the future (once you do have a better handle on Order of Events), you can always change the vocabulary.

 

- Spydertrader

 

Listen. You need to fight the urge to overcomplicate things. In the beginning stages of attempting to learn this material, everyone (including myself) tries to 'invent' different ways they 'feel' might best suite their needs, but the reality is, far different than one expects. You currently find yourself 'hung up' on vocabulary. Your prior educational experience dictates you need to understand vocabulary in order to understand a concept. This is true only in cases where vocabulary is the differentiating factor.

 

In this specific case the words "tape, traverse, channel, bbt, sub bbt sub-sub bbt (or however many fractals down the rabbit hole one wishes to travel)" have zero relevance to understanding. One could just as easily use "thin, medium, thick, dotted, dashed, dot-dashed" or even "pig, goat, cow, spider, insect, bateria" to describe the exact same events. You understand the "pig, goat, cow" analogy because you know the absolute definition of each organism. You therefore assume, using the same approach, all you need is to understand the absolute definition of "tape, traverse, channel or bbt," What the reality is you have yet to understand that the market often speaks in a language which (while sometimes providing absolutes) most frequently transfers information in a relative sense.

 

In other words, you should focus on when you have a completed container compared to when the market continues to build the same container. In such a fashion, you need not know what to call the container itself, but by applying the fractal nature of all markets, you can know when one container has ended, and another has begun.

 

- Spydertrader

 

A Drill:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/34/price-volume-relationship-6320-67.html#post88089

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    • Date: 7th April 2025.   Asian Markets Plunge as US-China Trade War Escalates; Wall Street Futures Signal Further Turmoil.   Global financial markets extended last week’s massive sell-off as tensions between the US and its major trading partners deepened, rattling investors and prompting sharp declines across equities, commodities, and currencies. The fallout from President Trump’s sweeping new tariff measures continued to spread, raising fears of a full-blown trade war and economic recession.   Asian stock markets plunged on Monday, extending a global market rout fueled by rising tensions between the US and China. The latest wave of aggressive tariffs and retaliatory measures has unnerved investors worldwide, triggering sharp sell-offs across the Asia-Pacific region.   Asian equities led the global rout on Monday, with dramatic losses seen across the region. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index tumbled more than 8% shortly after the open, while the broader Topix fell over 6.5%, recovering only slightly from steeper losses. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite sank 6.7%, and the blue-chip CSI300 dropped 7.5% as markets reopened following a public holiday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index opened more than 9% lower, reflecting deep concerns about escalating trade tensions.           South Korea’s Kospi dropped 4.8%, triggering a circuit breaker designed to curb panic selling. Taiwan’s Taiex index collapsed by nearly 10%, with major tech exporters like TSMC and Foxconn hitting circuit breaker limits after each fell close to 10%. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 shed as much as 6.3%, and New Zealand’s NZX 50 lost over 3.5%.   Despite the escalation, Beijing has adopted a measured tone. Chinese officials urged investors not to panic and assured markets that the country has the tools to mitigate economic shocks. At the same time, they left the door open for renewed trade talks, though no specific timeline has been set.   US Stock Futures Plunge Ahead of Monday Open   US stock futures pointed to another brutal day on Wall Street. Futures tied to the S&P 500 dropped over 3%, Nasdaq futures sank 4%, and Dow Jones futures lost 2.5%—equivalent to nearly 1,000 points. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, down more than 20% from its recent highs, while the S&P 500 is nearing bear territory. The Dow closed last week in correction. Oil prices followed suit, with WTI crude dropping over 4% to $59.49 per barrel—its lowest since April 2021.   Wall Street closed last week in disarray, erasing more than $5 trillion in value amid fears of an all-out trade war. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, sinking more than 20% from its recent peak. The S&P 500 is approaching bear territory, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has slipped firmly into correction territory.   German Banks Hit Hard Amid Escalating Trade Tensions   German banking stocks were among the worst hit in Europe. Shares of Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank plunged between 9.5% and 10.3% during early Frankfurt trading, compounding Friday’s steep losses. Fears over a global trade war and looming recession are severely impacting the financial sector, particularly export-driven economies like Germany.   Eurozone Growth at Risk   Eurozone officials are bracing for economic fallout, with Greek central bank governor Yannis Stournaras warning that Trump’s tariff policy could reduce eurozone GDP by up to 1%. The EU is preparing retaliatory tariffs on $28 billion worth of American goods—ranging from steel and aluminium to consumer products like dental floss and luxury jewellery.   Starting Wednesday, the US is expected to impose 25% tariffs on key EU exports, with Brussels ready to respond with its own 20% levies on nearly all remaining American imports.   UK Faces £22 Billion Economic Blow   In the UK, fresh research from KPMG revealed that the British economy could shrink by £21.6 billion by 2027 due to US-imposed tariffs. The analysis points to a 0.8% dip in economic output over the next two years, undermining Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ growth agenda. The report also warned of additional fiscal pressure that may lead to future tax increases and public spending cuts.   Wall Street Braces for Recession   Goldman Sachs revised its US recession probability to 45% within the next year, citing tighter financial conditions and rising policy uncertainty. This marks a sharp jump from the 35% risk estimated just last month—and more than double January’s 20% projection. J.P. Morgan issued a bleaker outlook, now forecasting a 60% chance of recession both in the US and globally.   Global Leaders Respond as Trade Tensions Deepen   The dramatic market sell-off was triggered by China’s sweeping retaliation to a new round of US tariffs, which included a 34% levy on all American imports. Beijing’s state-run People’s Daily released a defiant statement, asserting that China has the tools and resilience to withstand economic pressure from Washington. ‘We’ve built up experience after years of trade conflict and are prepared with a full arsenal of countermeasures,’ it stated.   Around the world, policymakers are responding to the growing threat of a trade-led economic slowdown. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced plans to appeal directly to Washington and push for tariff relief, following the US administration’s decision to impose a blanket 24% tariff on Japanese imports. He aims to visit the US soon to present Japan’s case as a fair trade partner.   In Taiwan, President Lai Ching-te said his administration would work closely with Washington to remove trade barriers and increase purchases of American goods in an effort to reduce the bilateral trade deficit. The island's defence ministry has also submitted a new list of US military procurements to highlight its strategic partnership.   Economists and strategists are warning of deeper economic consequences. Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard, said the scale and speed of these tariffs could result in far more severe damage than previously anticipated. ‘This isn’t just a bilateral conflict anymore — more countries are likely to respond in the coming weeks,’ he noted.   Analysts at Barclays cautioned that smaller Asian economies, such as Singapore and South Korea, may face challenges in negotiating with Washington and are already adjusting their economic growth forecasts downward in response to the unfolding trade crisis.           Oil Prices Sink on Demand Concerns   Crude oil continued its sharp slide on Monday, driven by recession fears and weakened global demand. Brent fell 3.9% to $63.04 a barrel, while WTI plunged over 4% to $59.49—both benchmarks marking weekly losses exceeding 10%. Analysts say inflationary pressures and slowing economic activity may drag demand down, even though energy imports were excluded from the latest round of tariffs.   Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights noted, ‘The market is struggling to find a bottom. Until there’s a clear signal from Trump that calms recession fears, crude prices will remain under pressure.’   OPEC+ Adds Further Pressure with Output Hike   Bearish sentiment intensified after OPEC+ announced it would boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, far surpassing the expected 135,000 bpd. The alliance called on overproducing nations to submit compensation plans by April 15. Analysts fear this surprise move could undo years of supply discipline and weigh further on already fragile oil markets.   Global political risks also flared over the weekend. Iran rejected US proposals for direct nuclear negotiations and warned of potential military action. Meanwhile, Russia claimed fresh territorial gains in Ukraine’s Sumy region and ramped up attacks on surrounding areas—further darkening the outlook for markets.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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