The Price / Volume Relationship

[vienna 10]

paltalk room performance week 2, I plan to run it for 2 more weeks, thanks to all who stop by.

 

Interesting take on the JH method...thanks for sharing it! Basically, you are scalping for a tick or two (average profit/trade=1 1/2 ticks)...I saw how you average into the trades. I guess there is no arguing with a 100% Win percentage, even though I would wonder what happens if you get a fast move against you... then you might take lst's say a 2 pt loss on your 5 lots, and one such trade would wipe out a week of the small wins... especially since you seem to trade through market news....but apparently you are able to make it work, which would seem like a strong argument for the validity of "wmcn".... my interest lies in the opposite direction: I would like to figure out how to trade the way Eric did on one of the videos, just be right on the main direction 3-5 times a day and hold until the RTL is broken.

[Corey 10]

Interesting take on the JH method...thanks for sharing it! Basically, you are scalping for a tick or two (average profit/trade=1 1/2 ticks)...I saw how you average into the trades. I guess there is no arguing with a 100% Win percentage, even though I would wonder what happens if you get a fast move against you... then you might take lst's say a 2 pt loss on your 5 lots, and one such trade would wipe out a week of the small wins... especially since you seem to trade through market news....but apparently you are able to make it work, which would seem like a strong argument for the validity of "wmcn".... my interest lies in the opposite direction: I would like to figure out how to trade the way Eric did on one of the videos, just be right on the main direction 3-5 times a day and hold until the RTL is broken.

 

just try to get people to start figure out how to put into practice some part of the method, surely this setup is not the most money making setup or the most winning setup. It is just something that is simple to teach simple to show. I like to keep it at 100% if I can, the next step is to reduce number of contracts while keeping target of 100/day the same. One step at a time, crawl , walk then fly.

[Corey 10]

some more thoughts;

 

I Basically, you are scalping for a tick or two (average profit/trade=1 1/2 ticks)..

 

each es level is 2000 deep, think about it.

 

... my interest lies in the opposite direction: I would like to figure out how to trade the way Eric did on one of the videos, just be right on the main direction 3-5 times a day and hold until the RTL is broken.

 

I am not Eric and neither are you, give it some thoughts, would you.

[emac 10]

My attempt to annotate yesterday, which appears to me an elongated pt 3 move after the news. One which from the gaussians shows it is yet in the last leg up of a fanned the channel. I think Monday will confirm that observation of WMCN. I might have made a couple of mistakes in the lower fractal annotations which is not surprising with the slow pace in afternoon session.

 

[cnms2 10]

My attempt to annotate yesterday, ...

I see many similarities between the 11:00 12:30 period of your chart, and the snippet of a few days ago.

[vienna 10]

some more thoughts;

 

 

I am not Eric and neither are you, give it some thoughts, would you.

 

That is true of course, but neither am I you... just have never traded a method where the target is 1 or two ticks, with the risk not really defined, no matter how much volume there is...but, like I said- thanks for sharing!

[Zan-shin 10]

Google faster fractal traverse

 

Thank you for your suggestion. Unfortunately I am none the wiser. Nowhere can I find a definition of a "faster fractal traverse" or an explanation for the difference between it and a "real traverse". I am still puzzled as to how one can identify and correctly annotate nested fractals.Would you be kind enough to give an explanation here for the benefit of myself and others in a similar situation?

Edited February 13, 2011 by Zan-shin

[cnms2 10]

Thank you for your suggestion. Unfortunately I am none the wiser. Nowhere can I find a definition of a "faster fractal traverse" or an explanation for the difference between it and a "real traverse". I am still puzzled as to how one can identify and correctly annotate nested fractals.Would you be kind enough to give an explanation here for the benefit of myself and others in a similar situation?

I use the words "faster fractal traverse" when I refer to a traverse on a fractal faster than another fractal. I don't give it a special significance that has a specific definition. I use "faster", "slower", or "same" to relate traverses on various fractals. In the example you posted, that started this exchange of messages, there was a non dominant traverse. In relation to it I annotated a "faster fractal traverse", which was one of the legs of the traverse in discussion. There is no other meaning behind my using of "faster fractal traverse".

 

Regarding the second part of your question, and I assume that this is the actual thing you're struggling with, "how one can identify and correctly annotate nested fractals", this is actually one of the fundamentals of the method in discussion on this thread. I have no better way of explaining it than what Spydertrader posted. There is a "puzzling" contradiction between the simplicity of the basic principles of this method and how difficult it is to actually apply them successfully in real time. This is probably caused by the baggage of beliefs and misconceptions that every student of the method adds.

 

My suggestion, to anybody who asks, is to not get stuck in looking for irrefutable definitions and rules that would make it all clear and mechanically applicable, but to get into the mode of trying to understand what's happening on three observable fractals, where the middle fractal is the trading fractal, and have an opinion at the closing of each bar.

[vienna 10]

just try to get people to start figure out how to put into practice some part of the method, surely this setup is not the most money making setup or the most winning setup. It is just something that is simple to teach simple to show........

 

Some more thoughts:

It seems that many are struggling with the whole fractal issue...and it seems that you have developed a method that identifies one specific leg of a sequence (such as the 2nd 2B in a B2B-2R-2B sequence) and then takes out a small amount of that leg with high reliability.

 

Now- if you can identify one specific leg with such high reliability, why not the END of a whole sequence for a longer trade?

What I have a hard time understanding (and I mean this in no way disparaging!) is that years of study of this method would not result in being able to identify the major turning points, and that being able to define one specific leg so precisely does not automatically lead to understanding a whole sequence? After all, what is different about identifying the 2nd 2B from identifying the R2R which should start a whole new sequence?

 

In the old ET threads that I reviewed, it seems to me that Spyder went from coarse to fine...he talked about identifying the FTT before there even was any precise Gaussian annotation on the charts, that came later..?

[Corey 10]

Some more thoughts:

It seems that many are struggling with the whole fractal issue...and it seems that you have developed a method that identifies one specific leg of a sequence (such as the 2nd 2B in a B2B-2R-2B sequence) and then takes out a small amount of that leg with high reliability.

....

 

....?

my theory is very simple if you learn how to id a specify seg of fractal then you id them all, sort of if you know for sure where the tail is then you know where the head is. The rest of your post is highly speculative feel free to speculate it anyway you want.

 

ps. a case for why free teaching is a bad idea.

Edited February 13, 2011 by Corey

[vienna 10]

my theory is very simple if you learn how to id a specify seg of fractal then you id them all, sort of if you know for sure where the tail is then you know where the head is. The rest of your post is highly speculative feel free to speculate it anyway you want.

 

ps. a case for why free teaching is a bad idea.

 

A "bad idea"? How so... because I voiced a question? Isn't that a bit thin-skinned- I said "in no way disparaging"...trying to understand that's all!

 

"my theory is very simple if you learn how to id a specify seg of fractal then you id them all'... yes, that was exactly my point...so...why, if I may (respectfully) ask this question again, do you trade a portion of one leg and not the whole sequence? Did I perhaps misunderstand you? Are you saying that you normally trade the whole sequence, but for teaching purposes you split it up? I thought you always trade this way.

 

I remember some JH post on ET where he talks about trader Greenspan who scalps for a tick with 140 lots, and I think he calls him an example of inefficiency... so, just wondering...

[Tams 20]

if you take 4 trades,

one trade makes 1 pt (4 ticks),

3 trades break even,

what is the average PnL?

(assuming the comm is built-in)

[vienna 10]

if you take 4 trades,

one trade makes 1 pt (4 ticks),

3 trades break even,

what is the average PnL?

(assuming the comm is built-in)

 

1 tick obviously.

Why don't you shoot for 1 pt with all 4 lots for a total of 4 pts?

[Tams 20]

1 tick obviously.

Why don't you shoot for 1 pt with all 4 lots for a total of 4 pts?

 

Why don't you shoot for 2 pts with 4 contracts in a throw for a total of 32 pts?

 

 

 

 

ps. this is not a smart a** reply... if you can see the fault in your reasoning, maybe you can see the wisdom in mine. Or... maybe you will re-evaluate whatever is in front of you.

Edited February 13, 2011 by Tams

[vienna 10]

Why don't you shoot for 2 pts with 4 contracts in a throw for a total of 32 pts?

 

 

 

 

ps. this is not a smart a** reply... if you can see the fault in your reasoning, maybe you can see the wisdom in mine. Or maybe you will re-evaluate whether RTL is what you should be aiming for.[/QUOT

 

???... I give up. This is not about what I shoot for (which, btw, is 8-16 ticks per contract, I trade only mornings 8-11:30.)

 

This is about your method, not mine.... I am checking it out and was surprised to see that such numbers were considered feasible or desirable.... But it seems that I am either misunderstanding something or not- either way it seems that I can only get cryptic puzzles as answers...too time consuming, so let's just let it rest.

[emac 10]

Volume leads Price. Always. And without exception.

 

 

Much debate has ensued over the years with respect to whether or not Volume represents helpful and / or useful information with respect to understanding Price change....

 

Rather than create yet another environment for posting opinions or sowing the seeds for epic battles over dogmatic philosophies, my goal here is to provide a framework, for anyone with an interest, to learn how to learn to ‘see’ the Price / Volume Relationship at work as shown through the fractal nature of all markets. In other words, this thread isn’t about me teaching people to trade, ‘calling’ trades or seeking converts to a new religious cult. This thread is about the individual trader developing the skills needed, and the knowledge required, to learn to trade based on what the market says, instead of what the trader believes (or I post). ....

 

To reiterate, this thread will not teach you to trade. If you are looking for a canned set of rules for entry and exit, look elsewhere. However, this thread will teach you to learn how to teach yourself to trade using the only tools you’ll ever need – a chart and your own brain.

 

- Spydertrader

 

Vienna,

 

I can understand and appreciate the frustrations of a student or someone new trying to learn especially through forum threads. I know how you felt and feel the same many times before. I believe there have been others as well. If I am not wrong, one example, I quote is Gucci who apparently had "get it" after going through the same, maybe longer. Believe me I had the same issues in studying the JH method.

 

But what I found was that those who offer to help are sincere and trying their best. I found that the process was done in a way for us to discover the way to read the markets, rather than to point and show us that is so, as many would have love it to, as would me LOL.

 

But the market does not appear as simple as 4 vol moves and 3 price moves to us newbies, or at least to those untrained to see it so. Hence, I think IMHO, we need to go through the drills and screen time to be able to correctly annotate it and see the market in its fractals. It might not be a short journey and its also has been many months for me.

 

I appreciate those who took their time to post the questions like yourself and many others some of whom are no longer active, because it is through these questions, that we the more quieter or busier ones can learn; when we have the time to. Many times when I do not understand something, I would move on till later someone else posted a more correct question and the answer comes along as sometimes, I would find myself in a situation of not knowing how to ask . I can imagine what went through those who untiredly continued to answer questions upon questions (and mostly the same ones!) over the months if not years (cnms2, gucci, corey, tikitrader, spyder, etc, etc). I can see they too had to continue to post charts and edit charts posted in order to help in the best way they can.

 

I hope you do not take offense of my comments. I can see you are also sincere in learning. I am still very much in the process of learning too but if you like to perhaps share thoughts and to help each other along, you are welcome to PM me.

 

Have a good day,

emac

[vienna 10]

Vienna,

 

............

 

I hope you do not take offense of my comments. I can see you are also sincere in learning. I am still very much in the process of learning too but if you like to perhaps share thoughts and to help each other along, you are welcome to PM me.

 

Have a good day,

emac

 

Thanks for the kind words!

[patrader 10]

Here's a suggestion on how to speed up the process of reviewing the jhm journals in ET.First make a list of all the posters in the first futures journal(http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=83604&perpage=6&pagenumber=1) except Spydertrader.Then go to the home page on ET and click on your "inbox".Then click on "edit ignore list".Put all the usernames in the ignore list except Spydertrader.Now review the first futures journal skipping quickly over the finer tools sections(starts around pg 450). Then move on to the iterative refinement journal(http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=113310&perpage=6&pagenumber=1) and add to the ignore list any additional usernames.Do all the drills in the journals.Then reread both journals again this time reviewing the finer tools.hth

[vienna 10]

Here's a suggestion on how to speed up the process of reviewing the jhm journals in ET.First make a list of all the posters in the first futures journal(http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=83604&perpage=6&pagenumber=1) except Spydertrader.Then go to the home page on ET and click on your "inbox".Then click on "edit ignore list".Put all the usernames in the ignore list except Spydertrader.Now review the first futures journal skipping quickly over the finer tools sections(starts around pg 450). Then move on to the iterative refinement journal(http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=113310&perpage=6&pagenumber=1) and add to the ignore list any additional usernames.Do all the drills in the journals.Then reread both journals again this time reviewing the finer tools.hth

 

That is funny...that is exactly what I did!

I figured if any of the contributions were useful, Spyder would respond to them...so they should appear in his posts.

[vienna 10]

Any of you guys going to the money show in NY?

[Corey 10]

room performance - week 3, 1 more week to go, option expire week has not been kind to the setup.

[MKTr 10]

18 Feb 2011, 5 minute ESH11

 

MK

[BillyRay 10]

Great post. I am a 25 year student of volume and range analysis and I would urge that all volume is not created equal. In other words, volume seems to have some analytical or predictive value only when the volume correlates to an instrument that is not dependent on the price movement of another instrument. For instance, the ES (Emini S&P 500)--when the S&P 500 Cash Index is increasing in price, the ES will follow, regardless of the volume. A multitude of program traders assure the price of the two instruments stay within fair market value of one another. But this cannot mean that the ES volume holds predictive value for the cash index it follows. With that said, it can reasonably be argued that the ES influences the cash market prior to the cash market opening. But that influence is shortly lived. In the end, and as the old saying goes, cash is king.

[Corey 10]

room performance final week - goal $100/day - the room purpose is to show you how to gain a toe hold in Jack Universe by using a simple setup. I hope I show it clear enough and simple enough. Thanks to all attendants we may do it again if time permit, so long for now.

[islandboyz 10]

Great post. I am a 25 year student of volume and range analysis and I would urge that all volume is not created equal. In other words, volume seems to have some analytical or predictive value only when the volume correlates to an instrument that is not dependent on the price movement of another instrument. For instance, the ES (Emini S&P 500)--when the S&P 500 Cash Index is increasing in price, the ES will follow, regardless of the volume. A multitude of program traders assure the price of the two instruments stay within fair market value of one another. But this cannot mean that the ES volume holds predictive value for the cash index it follows. With that said, it can reasonably be argued that the ES influences the cash market prior to the cash market opening. But that influence is shortly lived. In the end, and as the old saying goes, cash is king.

 

I think you make an extremely interesting point. Since I am new to PV trading and the JH method I am hopeful that someone with more experience will respond to your post.