Open and Free Discussion on Volume

[ehorn 10]

  thalestrader said:

So the idea is that if you folks say it enough times the masses will start to believe it?

 

The obvious answer to this rhetoric is no... I feel you adequately represent the masses (thinking and beliefs).

 

 

  thalestrader said:

After all, are we to believe that bulk of the volume trade during the 15:25 EDT bar (based on Ninjatrader's time stamp) occurred prior to the price break, and price dropped in response to that increase in volume? Or did price break, and volume swelled as price continued to move down from the now broken support?

 

You are free to "believe" whatever you chose. It is the sequences of volume which must complete and these sequences are what are being monitored (This is not a single data set as you perceive - i.e. one volume bar). A trader performs a routine of monitoring and analysis and then makes decisions and takes actions based on this price/volume sequence.

 

In the end, the real question is how do you trade it? See my charts attached here: If I were not already in a short position, I would have traded that break with a sell stop at 896 and a stop loss at 899.25. I would have had a profit target somewhere just above 891.25 support. Anyone, including my nine year old daughter, can look at the chart, read my explanation as to how I would have traded that break, and duplicate it in the future. This is emphatically not the case with the contributions made by you and your friends to this thread.

 

There are many ways to make money trading markets. Spydertrader purports one way and I concur with the principles he ascribes.

 

  thalestrader said:

The history of the world shows that people are many followers and few leaders. People are always looking for someone or something to follow.

 

My goal is to follow the market and listen to it. The principles of price and volume and the sequences provide (me) the information required.

 

  thalestrader said:

As I said before, anyone can put "I sold here" and "I covered here" on a dead chart 72 hours after the closing bell and look, or I should say, try to look like a genius.

 

There is nothing glamorous about the day or the trade. In fact it was just mundane. It was a slow day (it is summer) and the market did not provide any signals other than hold the entire day (for the fractal I trade). This is not genius stuff or an attempt to appear as such.

 

 

  thalestrader said:

But no one here could look at what you did and duplicate the trade in the future on the basis upon which you claim to have made it, because there has been no basis given.

 

The intent of the attachment was to demonstrate (more or less) a repeatable process of the application of the principles.

 

 

  thalestrader said:

I really do not believe I am being unreasonable. If you folks are for real, then why not share the minimum required for intelligent and respectful human communication?

 

I participate here at TL because it has always seemed, for the most part, like a forum of seriously interested folks, with very little of the guru speak and fraud that one sees over at other forums, most notoriously notable, ET. I have apparently stirred the nest and we have attracted the the attention of the minions of a few gurus who have a near cult-like following (see how many who have rushed to defend the manifesto are new to TL, and who have a mere handful or even fewer posts here). In the interest of preserving the character of TL, and hoping that this contagion maybe contained, rather than spread throughout the forum, I will no longer participate in this thread.

 

So you are acquainted with and have observed the intelligent and respectful communication effort undertaken to transfer knowledge of the principles of price and volume. I take no offense at your beliefs. I simply was unaware of this forum until yesterday and thought I would join up and say hello to some of my colleagues. I apologize for interrupting. Open and honest dialogue is never a bad thing regardless of ones views and/or opinions.

 

Happy Independence Day

 

Peace.

[ljyoung 10]

Just for fun, what is the 'day' or the time frame if you will, for people who trade the equity index futures markets (say ES for example) using price or price + volume? Is it 9:30 AM - 4:15 PM EST or is it a 'CME' day, which for practical purposes begins and ends at 4:15 PM EST (the 'fix or settlement' and the 'nap time' are considered to be part of the next day)?

 

CME Globex

(ETH)MON-THURS: 5:00 p.m.-3:15 p.m. & 3:30 p.m.-4:30 p.m.

(Daily maintenance shutdown 4:30 p.m.-5:00 p.m.)

SUN: 5:00 p.m.-3:15 p.m.

 

What I'm getting at is where (what time frame) do traders 'get' the information that they use to trade?

[bathrobe 10]

9:30-4:15 is what I use and all other traders I know who use day timeframe calculations use this too.

[BlowFish 10]

  ljyoung said:

 

What I'm getting at is where (what time frame) do traders 'get' the information that they use to trade?

 

I guess it depends on what (swing sizes) they are trying to capture, it does for me at least. I am prone to 'zoom in' too far (or more accurately for too long) and that can result in loosing sight of the forest through examining the leaves on the trees.

[ljyoung 10]

  bathrobe said:

9:30-4:15 is what I use and all other traders I know who use day timeframe calculations use this too.

 

So do you disregard what has happened between 4:15 PM and 9:30 AM (all times discussed here are ES(D)T) with respect to it having an impact on how you trade? Obviously I don't know what sort of trader you are and if you were a scalper it may be that if a new contract high was made at 4 AM, the time itself wouldn't concern you as much as the fact that a new high was put in.

 

Another question if you will. From 4:00 PM till 4:15 PM, is it true that futures traders are relatively free of the 'influence' of the cash market, not unlike the equity players getting rid of the bondsmen at 15:00? If so, of what consequence, if any, is the price (P) or price + volume (PV) action during this 15 minutes for the next day's open? Is it a 'special' time, because the reality is that futures palyers are going to be without the 'influence' of the cash market until 9:30 AM the next day?

[ljyoung 10]

  BlowFish said:

I guess it depends on what (swing sizes) they are trying to capture, it does for me at least. I am prone to 'zoom in' too far (or more accurately for too long) and that can result in loosing sight of the forest through examining the leaves on the trees.

 

By swing sizes, do you mean volume?

[BlowFish 10]

  ljyoung said:

By swing sizes, do you mean volume?

 

No, more the size of moves that you are trying to capture. Someone scalping for half a dozen ticks might want to look at different stuff to someone trying to get 10 plus point swings. I know that you said 'intraday' but within that sort of time there are a variety of different 'swings' you might focus on.

 

What you want to see should dictate what/where you look.

 

Of course things aren't absolute 'daily swings' tend to be bigger than 'hourly swings' but volatility plays a part too.

 

Put another way knowing how long you want to be a trade and roughly the size of moves you want to capture is likely to steer you towards suitable tools to see what you need to achieve your objectives.

[ljyoung 10]

  BlowFish said:

No, more the size of moves that you are trying to capture. Someone scalping for half a dozen ticks might want to look at different stuff to someone trying to get 10 plus point swings. I know that you said 'intraday' but within that sort of time there are a variety of different 'swings' you might focus on.

 

What you want to see should dictate what/where you look.

 

Of course things aren't absolute 'daily swings' tend to be bigger than 'hourly swings' but volatility plays a part too.

 

Put another way knowing how long you want to be a trade and roughly the size of moves you want to capture is likely to steer you towards suitable tools to see what you need to achieve your objectives.

 

So depending on your trading style you'd say, "Well, I'm going to stay in this trade until I make so many ticks or points, then exit, unless I get stopped out first." Correct?

[HAL9000 10]

  ljyoung said:

So depending on your trading style you'd say, "Well, I'm going to stay in this trade until I make so many ticks or points, then exit, unless I get stopped out first." Correct?

 

I am not asked, but ...

 

well, I will tell you my view.

 

I thought I have learned to move my stop quickly to BE.

 

My action was, I moved it too quickly! Result BE or poorer.

 

I thought I have learned about risk and reward,

 

But, as I see it now, it depends on how I act, and when I act.

(Entry, cut/stop, exit.)

 

I thought I was at the point many times.

 

Well, I think I am at the point once more.

 

Time will tell.

 

 

Regards,

 

Hal

 

P.S.: In my view it is still a process.

(An ongoing process.)

 

Forever!

Edited August 14, 2009 by HAL9000
;-) As alsways.

[ljyoung 10]

  HAL9000 said:

I am not asked, but ...

 

well, I will tell you my view.

 

I thought I have learned to move my stop quickly to BE.

 

My action was, I moved it too quickly! Result BE or poorer.

 

I thought I have learned about risk and reward,

 

But, as I see it now, it depends on how I act, and when I act.

(Entry, cut/stop, exit.)

 

I thought I was at the point many times.

 

Well, I think I am at the point once more.

 

Time will tell.

 

 

Regards,

 

Hal

 

P.S.: In my view it is still a process.

(An ongoing process.)

 

Forever!

 

Thanks for your input Hal. Anyone can say whatever they want in response to my questions. If you are an edge trader you use stops and targets and that's just the way it is and I agree it is non-trivial.

[BlowFish 10]

  ljyoung said:

So depending on your trading style you'd say, "Well, I'm going to stay in this trade until I make so many ticks or points, then exit, unless I get stopped out first." Correct?

 

Sort of, though you can only take what the markets offers. For example, your goal might be to trade from 10am to 12pm taking 'a handful' of trades trying to catch the 'main swings' (within that period) of roughly 'x points' in that period. How you define 'a handful', 'main swings' etc is up to you but that focus will dictate what tools will show you what you want to see.

 

I guess another way of putting it is pick tools that allow you to see what you want to see...rather than... pick tools and look at them and see what you see.