Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

brownsfan019

Open and Free Discussion on Volume

Recommended Posts

Volume leads Price

 

What volume is, is not up to an individual's discretion. Volume is the quantity of contracts (or other vehicles) traded. PERIOD. Volume and price are instantly plotted at the same time as volume can not be plotted without a result in price and price can not be plotted without an appearance in volume. Traders make volume and volume is plotted at the same time price is created. Price is the price at which traders have traded. Price does not lead volume and volume does not lead price. Ideas of movements (which are opinions of the future direction of price) lead volume and price (i.e. traders' actions lead price, which are represented on the chart as volume and price). So one could say volume and price leads volume and price. When Wyckoff (or whoever stated it first) said that volume is the effort and price is the result, he was not pulling this out of his ass, he was stating the obvious. If you submit a market order to buy one contract you are adding 1 unit of volume to the volume bar and one point in price to the chart AT THE EXACT SAME TIME.

 

Wyckoff, Livermore and the other price action (+volume) gurus realized the obvious and traded accordingly. :)

Edited by johnjohn1hew

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Volume Leads Price?

 

I believe a more correct description of the concept should be:

 

Past Volume Behavior Leads Future Price Behavior

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You are in fact providing a Price Volume Relationship Formula/Behavior !

 

The first person to give me a quantitative formula for doing this will be given a big con-grat-u-*******-lations! You did the impossible. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The first person to give me a quantitative formula for doing this will be given a big con-grat-u-*******-lations! You did the impossible. :)

 

 

if you can describe it, you can quantify it.

 

if you cannot quantify a concept, your concept is either non-scientific, or incomplete.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
if you can describe it, you can quantify it.

 

if you cannot quantify a concept, your concept is either non-scientific, or incomplete.

 

Mr. Tams, quantify it for me. Please, i am dying for this formula. If you say this then you must be saying that Wyckoff's methodology (which we all know works) is incomplete or non-scientific, as he never gave a quantitative way of using his method. His method was based on the underlying forces, of which have nothing to do with formulas and everything to do with mental reasoning.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Mr. Tams, quantify it for me. Please, i am dying for this formula. If you say this then you must be saying that Wyckoff's methodology (which we all know works) is incomplete or non-scientific, as he never gave a quantitative way of using his method. His method was based on the underlying forces, of which have nothing to do with formulas and everything to do with mental reasoning.

 

 

You are extrapolating to a branch that is neither my intention, nor the spirit of this thread. I will let you continue in your own expedition.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
No formula can predict the next movement in price. Price is random and takes reasoning skills to decipher. Skills that cannot be mimicked by a forumla. It is absolutely foolhardy to assume that anyone holds such insight to be able to predict the next movements of a collective human mind 100% of the time.

 

For you and me John we may get close to 30-65% of getting the direction right. For the more sophisticated and well funded Algos/Bots it is a much higher %. I agree with you no one trader will get close to predicting the Price movement. What I am getting at is that there are well funded drivers of the market who dont need to know where price is going but have the power to do so...their traces are found in Volume and price and other data approximations. No one formulae can track these guys as they have access to many at any moment.

 

Best

John

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You are extrapolating to a branch that is neither my intention, nor the spirit of this thread. I will let you continue in your own expedition.

 

A sound theory is a theory that can be defended. If you cannot defend a theory, then you have no place in pushing it. You stated that human reasoning can be formulated, and i want to see this. Otherwise i have to stick with my belief that quantifying human reasoning is impossible. I do not acknowledge those who want to appear smart, i acknowledge those who can be smart and can convince the opposition without feeling offended and just throwing in the towel. In no way will i ever alow a disagreement to become personal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
i have to stick with my belief that quantifying human reasoning is impossible.

 

I share your opinion.

 

I do not acknowledge those who want to appear smart, i acknowledge those who can be smart and can convince the opposition without feeling offended and just throwing in the towel.

 

People do nonetheless behave in repeatable though of course not always predictable patterns, especially when an agenda is at stake.

 

First they put you on ignore, then they report your posts, and only then do they throw in the towel.

 

An open and free discussion, but apparently some are permitted to be more open and free than others.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So you have 1 trader who thinks the price is going up and he buys up 1000 contracts. On the other side you have 1000 traders who think the market is going down and they each sell 1 contract. What exactly is that 1000 volume telling me to do?

 

Well this is not trading advice but it is saying enter against the prevailing trend. Particularly if it is an area that you might anticipate a turn (S/R). I have not talked about volume @ bid and volume @ ask or trade intensity (well not in this thread, there are other threads that discuss those metrics). What I presented is simply looking at volume peaks on a fast chart.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
BF - post a few charts if you get chance. I can't even fathom having a 15 sec chart up! lol

 

There are a few earlier in the thread. I have a couple of nice failures from the end of last week, the reason they are nice is because it looked like support had already 'gone'. Been a bit busy last few days.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is a failure despite that it gave a bounce that would have alowed a scratch or small loss depending on how one was to manage it. (even a profitable scalp). The blue line was towards the bottom end of support and had been tested a few time already. It looked like a fail to me (support failing despite the volume peak).

5aa70ef2ea335_FDAX09-0926_06_2009(15Seconds).thumb.jpg.35a5631eb39d589b9e3a100fee0588a9.jpg

5aa70ef2f3f10_FDAX09-0926_06_2009(15Seconds).thumb.png.5278a74d88767637b42fb0cd96a7a5d6.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is what I consider to be a very real gap ... others would say that the gap does not exist and you can just imagine it is not there.

 

Here is how I would trade this: Sell stop a tick below first five minute low (902.75), with a stop loss above the high of the first five minutes (or the HOD is price makes a higher high prior to making a lower low).

 

I would be watchful at the blue arrow lines for signs that price was reversing, or to add to the postion on a break.

 

Will it be a profitable trade? I do not know. But I have an entry, I have a stop loss, and I have potential profit targets. Anyone can see these without needing to learn anything terribly esoteric.

 

If the gap does not begin to fill within the first 15 -20 minutes of trading, I anticipate (anticipate, not predict) that it will not fill today, and that price will close in the direction of the gap, and that there is a high liklihood of a trend day down whereby the market opens at or near its high and closes at or near its low.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa70ef5152bc_7-02-2009ESTradingTVGR1.thumb.jpg.dcb7ea354c3839dc6030e494d2e1395e.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I would be watchful at the blue arrow lines for signs that price was reversing, or to add to the postion on a break.

 

So far trend down is in effect, but price is hanging around that 901 level (first blue arrow). So currently short, but watchful for a reversal. I would trade this by watching for what happens should price bounce as high as 904 (1.25 ponts above entry) and be willing to exit and then re-enter short if warranted. Otherwise, I am holding short.

5aa70ef51c214_7-02-2009ESTradingTVGR2.thumb.jpg.9a765dd2b3d437c2a81ab5c1d04c60bf.jpg

5aa70ef5217ec_7-02-2009ESTradingTVGR3.thumb.jpg.7ba924cf8110d79d67c7f7686f1942ed.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So far trend down is in effect, but price is hanging around that 901 level (first blue arrow). So currently short, but watchful for a reversal. I would trade this by watching for what happens should price bounce as high as 904 (1.25 ponts above entry) and be willing to exit and then re-enter short if warranted. Otherwise, I am holding short.

 

With the lower low (albeit only slightly lower), and price having dropped 5.25 points from entry, there is no reason for this to be any worse than a breakeven trade.

 

Someone once said, (and I think it was Victor Sperandeo) that "If you don't bet, you can't win; and if you lose all yours chips, you can't bet."

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa70ef5270ae_7-02-2009ESTradingTVGR4.thumb.jpg.a42e2dbd4bda2862c339014f42638421.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
With the lower low (albeit only slightly lower), and price having dropped 5.25 points from entry, there is no reason for this to be any worse than a breakeven trade.

 

Not much progress lately - tapped 897.25 as five minute low twice now, so 5.5 points max from entry. I will take some off at 900.25 and hold the rest with a BE stop

5aa70ef52cdbf_7-02-2009ESTradingTVGR5.thumb.jpg.5e326b0120cbb6481ade5a97bd3fe596.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Not much progress lately - tapped 897.25 as five minute low twice now, so 5.5 points max from entry. I will take some off at 900.25 and hold the rest with a BE stop

 

 

Stop on 1/2 is 900.25, and stop on second 1/2 is 904: This will net .75 points/contract traded less commish if both stops are taken out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Stop on 1/2 is 900.25, and stop on second 1/2 is 904: This will net .75 points/contract traded less commish if both stops are taken out.

 

+2.5 points closed on half position

 

stop at -1.25 points on half position

5aa70ef584925_7-02-2009ESTradingTVGR7.thumb.jpg.eeac40f8bc86cdf116db9ed94bcfa702.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the rally attempt fizzles out and we get a retest of the lows, 896.25-896.75 would be an area to wacth for a potenital double bottom. If price goes there, I'd be watching this for clues as to managing my existing short position, and not to try to pick a botom from which to go long.

 

I still anticipate that the gap does not get filled today (though it might) and that the market will close near the price lows of the day (though it might close at its high).

5aa70ef5947df_7-02-2009ESTradingTVGR8.thumb.jpg.dadfe60069a47b5daf63359a9b854355.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So this thread will focus (initially at least) on discussing volume and whether or not it is important in your trading work.

 

I think there's 2 simple sides people can take here:

 

1) Volume is important and can play a huge role in their analysis

 

2) Volume is unimportant and/or just another useless indicator

Alright, you probably guessed I am a little biased here, but allow me to explain how I view volume in intraday trading.

 

In a nutshell, volume can be a tricky thing when watching intraday

 

As I have not been showing volume at all, it might be assumed that I would fall under the second option above, along with Brownie. However, I do believe that volume, especially on daily, weekly, and monthly analysis of stock price movements, can be very useful, and provide important information.

 

I have not found it to be useful for intraday day trading.

 

Here is the 5 minute ES with volume. I was hoping that at some point this morning one of the Volumiati would appear and share his or her views on how to trade the ES today based upon volume analysis rather than price action. I'd really rather see and hear the analysis in real time as the action unfolds. Afterall, anyone can mark up a dead chart after the fact and look like a genius.

5aa70ef59a758_7-02-2009ESTradingTVGR9.thumb.jpg.51eb0b8dddf837467793f2fa4acd4c12.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If the rally attempt fizzles out and we get a retest of the lows, 896.25-896.75 would be an area to wacth for a potenital double bottom.

 

I am not calling this a double bottom (though it may be), but I do want to point out how price came down into the 896.25-.75 (represented o the chart by the rectangle) and immdeiately found (at least momentary support). In fact, if I needed the money, I could justify taking profits right here (let's call it 897.75). Of course, the fact that that level was drawn on the chart 25 minutes prior to price reaching it would have given anyone more than enough time to have a limit order at 896.75 or 896.50 which would have easily been filled, and a rsting order at 896.25 that had been there for 25 minutes may also have had a shot at getting filled. All this by way of using price to anticipate its immediate future course, and not relying on magical mystical machinations to divine the future.

 

Certainly a stop on the remaining position at 901 is currently warranted. This would result in +2.5 points on 1/2 and +1.75 points on the second half for an average profit of 2 1/8 points/contract traded.

 

Stop loss is now 901.

5aa70ef5a0e35_7-02-2009ESTradingTVGR10.thumb.jpg.6a8ac5728356ed4e197bdba190cd5a6a.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If this rally attempt also fizzles, and if price makes a lower low, 895.50-896 (represented by the second smaller rectangle drawn on the attached chart) would be the next minor support area from which another bottom attempt may launch (or not).

 

A decisive break of 895.50 should clear the way to a test of the 3.25 point range betwen 891.25-894.50

5aa70ef5b16bd_7-02-2009ESTradingTVGR11.thumb.jpg.e83cda6fe9812a83964c20dafb976c51.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Stop on last 1/2 is 899.25

 

This would result in: +2.5 points on half and +3.25 on 1/2 for an average profit of of 2 5/8 points per contract traded (not including commish).

 

 

Price struck within a tick of the 99quarter stop - still short and stop is still 899.25

5aa70ef5be03d_7-02-2009ESTradingTVGR13.thumb.jpg.0446fc2afdab1bdbe9faeac6d5712d4d.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Trading is about making decisions as to how and when to bet on where price is going. All you need to make those decisions is right here on the chart. In other words, let price, the very thing about which you are betting, tell you what you should do.

5aa70ef5c3626_7-02-2009ESTradingTVGR14.thumb.jpg.7af96b6d01051e95fc086b77df49c631.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Thx for reminding us... I don't bang that drum often enough anymore Another part for consideration is who that money initially went to...
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • How long does it take to receive HFM's withdrawal via Skrill? less than 24H?
    • My wife Robin just wanted some groceries.   Simple enough.   She parked the car for fifteen minutes, and returned to find a huge scratch on the side.   Someone keyed her car.   To be clear, this isn’t just any car.   It’s a Cybertruck—Elon Musk's stainless-steel spaceship on wheels. She bought it back in 2021, before Musk became everyone's favorite villain or savior.   Someone saw it parked in a grocery lot and felt compelled to carve their hatred directly into the metal.   That's what happens when you stand out.   Nobody keys a beige minivan.   When you're polarizing, you're impossible to ignore. But the irony is: the more attention something has, the harder it is to find the truth about it.   What’s Elon Musk really thinking? What are his plans? What will happen with DOGE? Is he deserving of all of this adoration and hate? Hard to say.   Ideas work the same way.   Take tariffs, for example.   Tariffs have become the Cybertrucks of economic policy. People either love them or hate them. Even if they don’t understand what they are and how they work. (Most don’t.)   That’s why, in my latest podcast (link below), I wanted to explore the “in-between” truth about tariffs.   And like Cybertrucks, I guess my thoughts on tariffs are polarizing.   Greg Gutfield mentioned me on Fox News. Harvard professors hate me now. (I wonder if they also key Cybertrucks?)   But before I show you what I think about tariffs… I have to mention something.   We’re Headed to Austin, Texas This weekend, my team and I are headed to Austin. By now, you should probably know why.   Yes, SXSW is happening. But my team and I are doing something I think is even better.   We’re putting on a FREE event on “Tech’s Turning Point.”   AI, quantum, biotech, crypto, and more—it’s all on the table.   Just now, we posted a special webpage with the agenda.   Click here to check it out and add it to your calendar.   The Truth About Tariffs People love to panic about tariffs causing inflation.   They wave around the ghost of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff from the Great Depression like it’s Exhibit A proving tariffs equal economic collapse.   But let me pop this myth:   Tariffs don’t cause inflation. And no, I'm not crazy (despite what angry professors from Harvard or Stanford might tweet at me).   Here's the deal.   Inflation isn’t when just a couple of things become pricier. It’s when your entire shopping basket—eggs, shirts, Netflix subscriptions, bananas, everything—starts costing more because your money’s worth less.   Inflation means your dollars aren’t stretching as far as they used to.   Take the 1800s.   For nearly a century, 97% of America’s revenue came from tariffs. Income tax? Didn’t exist. And guess what inflation was? Basically zero. Maybe 1% a year.   The economy was booming, and tariffs funded nearly everything. So, why do people suddenly think tariffs cause inflation today?   Tariffs are taxes on imports, yes, but prices are set by supply and demand—not tariffs.   Let me give you a simple example.   Imagine fancy potato chips from Canada cost $10, and a 20% tariff pushes that to $12. Everyone panics—prices rose! Inflation!   Nope.   If I only have $100 to spend and the price of my favorite chips goes up, I either stop buying chips or I buy, say, fewer newspapers.   If everyone stops buying newspapers because they’re overspending on chips, newspapers lower their prices or go out of business.   Overall spending stays the same, and inflation doesn’t budge.   Three quick scenarios:   We buy pricier chips, but fewer other things: Inflation unchanged. Manufacturers shift to the U.S. to avoid tariffs: Inflation unchanged (and more jobs here). We stop buying fancy chips: Prices drop again. Inflation? Still unchanged. The only thing that actually causes inflation is printing money.   Between 2020 and 2022 alone, 40% of all money ever created in history appeared overnight.   That’s why inflation shot up afterward—not because of tariffs.   Back to tariffs today.   Still No Inflation Unlike the infamous Smoot-Hawley blanket tariff (imagine Oprah handing out tariffs: "You get a tariff, and you get a tariff!"), today's tariffs are strategic.   Trump slapped tariffs on chips from Taiwan because we shouldn’t rely on a single foreign supplier for vital tech components—especially if that supplier might get invaded.   Now Taiwan Semiconductor is investing $100 billion in American manufacturing.   Strategic win, no inflation.   Then there’s Canada and Mexico—our friendly neighbors with weirdly huge tariffs on things like milk and butter (299% tariff on butter—really, Canada?).   Trump’s not blanketing everything with tariffs; he’s pressuring trade partners to lower theirs.   If they do, everybody wins. If they don’t, well, then we have a strategic trade chess game—but still no inflation.   In short, tariffs are about strategy, security, and fairness—not inflation.   Yes, blanket tariffs from the Great Depression era were dumb. Obviously. Today's targeted tariffs? Smart.   Listen to the whole podcast to hear why I think this.   And by the way, if you see a Cybertruck, don’t key it. Robin doesn’t care about your politics; she just likes her weird truck.   Maybe read a good book, relax, and leave cars alone.   (And yes, nobody keys Volkswagens, even though they were basically created by Hitler. Strange world we live in.) Source: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/the-truth-about-tariffs-busting-the-inflation-myth    Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/       
    • No, not if you are comparing apples to apples. What we call “poor” is obviously a pretty high bar but if you’re talking about like a total homeless shambling skexie in like San Fran then, no. The U.S.A. in not particularly kind to you. It is not an abuse so much as it is a sad relatively minor consequence of our optimism and industriousness.   What you consider rich changes with circumstances obviously. If you are genuinely poor in the U.S.A., you experience a quirky hodgepodge of unhelpful and/or abstract extreme lavishnesses while also being alienated from your social support network. It’s about the same as being a refugee. For a fraction of the ‘kindness’ available to you in non bio-available form, you could have simply stayed closer to your people and been MUCH better off.   It’s just a quirk of how we run the place and our values; we are more worried about interfering with people’s liberty and natural inclination to do for themselves than we are about no bums left behind. It is a slightly hurtful position and we know it; we are just scared to death of socialism cancer and we’re willing to put our money where our mouth is.   So, if you’re a bum; you got 5G, the ER will spend like $1,000,000 on you over a hangnail but then kick you out as soon as you’re “stabilized”, the logistics are surpremely efficient, you have total unchecked freedom of speech, real-estate, motels, and jobs are all natural healthy markets in perfect competition, you got compulsory three ‘R’’s, your military owns the sky, sea, space, night, information-space, and has the best hairdos, you can fill out paper and get all the stuff up to and including a Ph.D. Pretty much everything a very generous, eager, flawless go-getter with five minutes to spare would think you might need.   It’s worse. Our whole society is competitive and we do NOT value or make any kumbaya exception. The last kumbaya types we had werr the Shakers and they literally went extinct. Pueblo peoples are still around but they kind of don’t count since they were here before us. So basically, if you’re poor in the U.S.A., you are automatically a loser and a deadbeat too. You will be treated as such by anybody not specifically either paid to deal with you or shysters selling bejesus, Amway, and drugs. Plus, it ain’t safe out there. Not everybody uses muhfreedoms to lift their truck, people be thugging and bums are very vulnerable here. The history of a large mobile workforce means nobody has a village to go home to. Source: https://askdaddy.quora.com/Are-the-poor-people-in-the-United-States-the-richest-poor-people-in-the-world-6   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.