Reading Charts in Real Time

[traderbrazil 10]

Would you all consider this break to be a valid entry?

The reason I'm asking is because I don't see a HL before the trigger...

 

Thanks for your feedback!

[ziebarf 10]

Looking for a short on the EU

[Cory2679 11]

Short on EJ...

 

I'm making an attempt at what Thales did that time...getting in off a smaller swing to catch the move of the bigger swings. We'll see what happens...

 

Also, this chart shows the conclusion of yesterday's trade. I had hit PT1 on my last post yesterday, and as you can see, PT2 was eventually hit, but not before getting taken out at BE on the second half...

 

NOTE: Looking at this chart, it makes me feel confident in my choice of PT's...you'll see that price stopped and reversed at both of them!

 

-Cory

Edited December 16, 2009 by Cory2679

[ziebarf 10]

Short triggered.. Moved the stop up a little bit to compensate for another swing high.

 

EDIT: Caught Break, moved stop to BE

 

EDIT2: Took half off around 1.4553.. Its late and I have been traveling all day, lets hope I wake up to PT2 being filled

Edited December 16, 2009 by ziebarf

[Cory2679 11]

Short on EJ...

 

Well...you can't tell on this chart, but I got stopped for a full loss of 23 ticks on my FXCM demo account...

 

I remembered today was an FOMC day about half way through the trade. In reality, I am 100% sure I would have just gotten out at BE once I remembered today's 2:15 ET announcement, but since I was demo trading, I figured what the heck, I'll see what happens (basically to "test" the FXCM platform)...

 

I was actually pretty impressed. The spread did go crazy...got up to 4-5 ticks and even went negative (the bid was higher than the ask for a second). BUT, that's not really too bad for an FOMC day! I'm sure Oanda was 10-20 ticks! (Note: I've used Oanda before, several months ago, so that's why I keep comparing FXCM to Oanda...in case anyone was wondering).

 

Note: Now that I think about it, I wish I would have opened up my old Oanda account to compare the spreads...just for curiosity's sake. Oh well.

 

Note2: This may not have been the best opportunity anyway...there was an awful lot of congestion. I don't know. Oh well, moving on...

Edited December 16, 2009 by Cory2679
note

[thalestrader 14]

That is interesting Thales. That impulse is the Thales MA.

 

Maybe more of a Thales ADX?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Thanks Thales.

 

I'm drawing them by hand. Is my approach too mechanical? I find it easier to draw the lines than mess with text - I add the text in later.

 

Would you have stopped trading because of the two losses in a row or because you recognised the overlapping swings?

 

I have a question about the first red arrow...

 

 

The exercise is itself meant to be somewhat mechanical, so I think you are fine. I was concerned that you were using a swing finder indicator,in which case the object of the exercise, which is establishing the ability to ascertain trend, trend direction, and trend reversal, would be undermined. It would be like learning to play chess using a computer, which is fine, so long as you are playing the computer rather than letting the computer determine your moves for you.

 

I really would not have considered the long a loser, as it should have been about break even. I do stop after two losses (usually). But in this case, whenever I am whipped like that, especially when the opposing entries are very near the same price level, I give up. I assume that something is happening in which I am not meant to participate. So I look elsewhere for opportunity.

 

As far as why I marked a long there, I may have made a mistake. I was assuming that the high of the bar that defined the long entry was followed by the pullback into the low of the next bar before price proceeded higher. As this was after the fact, then price may have made its high on the subsequent bar prior to the pullback, in which case the entry would have been about 8 ticks higher than I marked. My long entries are always based on a L-H-HL. Timeframe is really irrelevant.

 

Take a lok at this post of Kiwi's, and look at the chart he posted (it was a copy of one of mine):

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/208/reading-charts-real-time-6151-149.html#post81389

 

I think you will see there what I assumed, perhaps incorrectly, occurred on the 6E yesterday.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Would you all consider this break to be a valid entry?

The reason I'm asking is because I don't see a HL before the trigger...

 

Thanks for your feedback!

 

Hi traderbrazil,

 

One of the problems with this approach as I have presented it here, at least over the last month or so, is that many have become focused on the trees, and as a result lose sight of the forest.

 

I see several higher lows prior to your entry. You just are looking for them somewhere else.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

My long entries are always based on a L-H-HL. Time frame is really irrelevant.

 

Let me restate that: It may be better to say "time frame is secondary to what price itself is doing." I'll leave it at that for now while I try to figure out a more elaborate way to explain what I think I am trying to say.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Weekend Reading, Part II

 

 

Due to popular demand as evidenced from my PM in-box, I scrounged up two more Joe Ross items for you. The first is "Trading by the Minute," which is Ross's day trading manual. The second is call Joe Ross Trading Manual. For the life of me I have no idea where it came from or how I came to possess it. However, I did a quick perusal, and came upon this little "gem," as Brownie (who is himself a gem) would say:

 

How are you to do all this? Practice, practice, PRACTICE. Practice

recognition of congestion areas. Practice recognition of high

probability breakouts. Practice trend recognition. Practice and more

practice. Just like anyone who wants to achieve perfection at

anything, there must be total dedication, study, practice and more

practice. You are to become a trading virtuoso. You are to practice,

yet always realizing that you will never attain true perfection, that

there is always room for improvement. There is usually a way to

refine: ways that you can do things better, more efficiently, and with

greater speed and finesse.

 

Sounds like a reasonable expectation to me. So, keep practicing, folks!

 

 

Here are the links, same as before:

 

 

https://acrobat.com/#d=oF8OdsAh6tbco5-IC0qdrg

 

https://acrobat.com/#d=xzOjg1kc0wluZJM2vdRMUQ

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

---- Addendum -----

For intraday trading futures for example, would it make things more obvious looking at a smaller interval chart, like a sub minute chart to make it obvious that price is not breaking out meaningfully? I.e. entering the trade, and exiting w/o movement with volume on a small interval chart?

 

Perhaps. Isn't that what traders like DbPhoenix are essentially doing when they drop to a single tick chart?

 

I find I am usually ok no matter what time frame I am watching. I prefer a fifteen minute for currency futures and a 5 minute for the ES. I rarely find myself chaning to lower time frames unless I missed something, or I want to make sure that where the high print was before the pullback (again, recall the "pinbar" post I referred to earlier).

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Kiwi 16]

Well...you can't tell on this chart, but I got stopped for a full loss of 23 ticks on my FXCM demo account...

 

I remembered today was an FOMC day about half way through the trade. In reality, I am 100% sure I would have just gotten out at BE once I remembered today's 2:15 ET announcement, but since I was demo trading, I figured what the heck, I'll see what happens (basically to "test" the FXCM platform)...

 

I was actually pretty impressed. The spread did go crazy...got up to 4-5 ticks and even went negative (the bid was higher than the ask for a second). BUT, that's not really too bad for an FOMC day! I'm sure Oanda was 10-20 ticks! (Note: I've used Oanda before, several months ago, so that's why I keep comparing FXCM to Oanda...in case anyone was wondering).

 

Note: Now that I think about it, I wish I would have opened up my old Oanda account to compare the spreads...just for curiosity's sake. Oh well.

 

Note2: This may not have been the best opportunity anyway...there was an awful lot of congestion. I don't know. Oh well, moving on...

 

Don't assume that a bucket shop won't

 

- have different demo and live spreads in this situation

- won't shade the bias

- won't be different if you have a position on or not

- won't introduce a few milliseconds delay from the rest of the market and control its prices to its advantage.

 

Because a bucket shop can control what you see any of the above could apply. It might not but I wouldn't bet on it.

[brownsfan019 17]

However, I did a quick perusal, and came upon this little "gem," as Brownie (who is himself a gem) would say:

 

I love it when Thales throws a mention my way.

 

Edited December 17, 2009 by brownsfan019

[forrestang 10]

I love it when I get some love from the man Thales!

 

 

That just doesn't sound right

[brownsfan019 17]

That just doesn't sound right

 

What are you talking about?

 

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

We're doing a little trading as a spectator sport this evening. We're the GU to see whether or not we should have taken it short right here.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

We're doing a little trading as a spectator sport this evening. We're the GU to see whether or not we should have taken it short right here.

 

Well, entry would have been at 1.6318 and the stop would now be at break even. For Profit targets, I like 1.6282 and 1.6242.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

For Profit targets, I like 1.6282 and 1.6242.

 

Looking for 1.6242 now.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Rustie 10]

Nice trade, I took the short however closed out way too early. Normal for me.

How are your profit targets set if you dont mind me asking?

[thalestrader 14]

How are your profit targets set if you dont mind me asking?

 

 

Sure, I've mentioned often in this thread that for profit targets I look for support/resistance levels (prior highs/lows/breakout points) and then I use fibs to tighten my orders.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

I took the short however closed out way too early. Normal for me.

 

Ok, now why did you take the short? Where did you book profit and why?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Looking for 1.6242 now.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

1.6242 found.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Rustie 10]

I took a short at 1.6328 and closed at 1.6314. I closed due to moving averages in that area and a 15 minute low.. I thought sideways.. never thought this would sell off this much though there always is the chance. I seem to hold on for this kind of move but more often that not (all the time) get stopped out for BE or a small loss... 1 lot on, so i closed.. thats my thinking anyway.

 

Thanks for the profit target info... still reading through the thread..

Congrats on a great trade!

 

Oh I took the short on a retrace of the red candle (little double top, failed to make a new high on the second attempt)

I actually took a break of that candle but got stopped and reentered. These are demo trades only.

Edited December 17, 2009 by Rustie

[Cory2679 11]

Don't assume that a bucket shop won't

 

- have different demo and live spreads in this situation

- won't shade the bias

- won't be different if you have a position on or not

- won't introduce a few milliseconds delay from the rest of the market and control its prices to its advantage.

 

Because a bucket shop can control what you see any of the above could apply. It might not but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

Thanks, Kiwi. Those risks associated with the bucket shops do make me weary, but I thought I'd give FXCM a try because of the praise Thales gave it. I haven't really ever heard anyone (who knows what they're talking about) talk so highly of a spot forex broker! :o

 

I really want to trade a very small account in order to keep my emotions in check.

See:

When I go back to trading live...I'm going to start with a $250 FXCM micro account...

 

In reality though, I will probably just avoid trading around major economic news like the FOMC announcement...better safe than sorry.

 

-Cory

[Kiwi 16]

Sounds good. You can always change later when you're bigger.