Reading Charts in Real Time

[forrestang 10]

E/U setting up, let's see what happens.

 

----EDIT (11:17est)------

It put in a LL so no long yet.

 

Here is the E/U, but I don't really like the size of the stop that is required, so decided to miss this one. Two charts, a 5 and 15m showing the trade.

 

Has anyone ever seen a trade they like, and decide to wait for another swing in which you intend to wait in order to reduce the size of your initial stop?

[daedalus 10]

I'm done for the day... I just wasn't trading well. Basically there was a nice winner this morning I didn't take for no other reason than fear. Yup. Newbie bullsh!t.

 

 

After that I did catch a nice trade in the EC, took a healthy loss in the BP. I had long signals in the EC and JY when i was short in the position but I didn't get reversal signals in the BP so I just held on. Kind of knew it was coming, but my rules are my rules, and they don't include exiting because another market is bullish or bearish so I took the loss like a man.

 

 

Then is where the real fun started. Got a nice signal in the JY, put in my order - internet dies. Crap. I call up my broker tell them to cancel the order, except that they tell me i'm already filled. Crap. Exit at a loss over the phone. I got super lucky and only took a 1 tick loss at the time. Got the connection back, re-entered at the same price, and got 4 ticks out of it. Should've been 5 but I screwed up the exit order. Just sloppy.

 

 

At this point i'm just pissed, frazzled, cursing, and i'm calling it quits for the day. Should've been a solid winning day but I screwed it up. Walked out with 6.25/per BEFORE commissions so basically a scratch day. Sometimes its just not falling your way and its best to quit while your ahead (albeit not by much). I guess the lesson here is that I traded poorly early, had some outside circumstances work against me but I didn't find myself blowing out my account and I consider that progress over what could've happened to me a couple years ago.

 

Hope you all had a better day!

[forrestang 10]

Here is the E/U, but I don't really like the size of the stop that is required, so decided to miss this one. Two charts, a 5 and 15m showing the trade.

 

Has anyone ever seen a trade they like, and decide to wait for another swing in which you intend to wait in order to reduce the size of your initial stop?

 

Here is a better looking situation IMO. Nice because the initial Stop was never hit.

 

Notice the target:cool:

[MidKnight 12]

I do not have time to go back and find the posts now, but many times (and recently, I might add), I have stated the following:

 

1) The only time an initial stop should be hit for a full loss is when I am stopped into a position, and price immediately races against me, and it crosses the stop line quicker than I can hit the flatten button; or I place an entry order, with OCO stop and limits, and the trade occurs while I am alsleep or occupied with other business.

 

2) I always have an initial stop loss, at least one profit target at 1R +/-, and a price level at which I will move the initial stop to BE.

 

G'day Thales,

 

Yes, I didn't mean to imply that you hadn't stated this. Only that when people that are collecting stats (like myself) and discussing R, it's sort of an inaccurate assessment of performance with a style such as this because it is rare to take a full 1R loss. I am starting to get the impression that your trade management is as rich and expansive as your evaluation of context.

 

In trawling through every post and screenshot in this thread I have noticed times where the stop management is aggressive in both real-time and with after the fact posts, but I have only noticed more relaxed stop management on the after the fact posts. Maybe there is some hindsight bias on those? I don't know. It's always nice to catch 'the move' - indeed it is what I have been trying to do on every trade throughout this exploration. But as one can see, it is probably hurting me more than helping me. Maybe the 'playing it tight' type of management is the way to go.

 

With kind regards,

MK

[thalestrader 14]

I also show a short in progress at the right hand edge.

 

Hi Folks,

 

Just got in, and I see that the USDCAD declined to reach its second target, and added some on for good measure.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Here is the E/U, but I don't really like the size of the stop that is required, so decided to miss this one. Two charts, a 5 and 15m showing the trade.

 

Has anyone ever seen a trade they like, and decide to wait for another swing in which you intend to wait in order to reduce the size of your initial stop?

 

Hi Folks,

 

Your initial stop loss is a worst case stop loss. What is the worst case? To me it is getting stopped into the trade having price immediately reverse hard and fast against me - you know how it is - you just sold short the high tick or bought the low tick of a move. At this point, it is a race between me and price - Can I hit the flatten button before price hits me for a full stop loss? Your initial stop, if you are doing this right, should very seldom be hit.

 

If you are trading this approach correctly, you will know almost immediately and be rewarded. If you are wrong, you will likely know this very quickly as well. And, because your initial stop is a worst case, and because it will at times be hit, you must plan your risk and your position size around that potential loss. But for goodness sakes, don't sit there and watch price make its way in an orderly fashion to hit you for a full stop.

 

The only reason that that initial stop loss is there is to prevent a devastating loss from quickly getting beyond all hope and repair. It is not there as a punishment for being wrong, it is there to protect you if needed. Its like airbags - you want them in your car. But just because you have them, you don't crash your car every time you need to stop. You use your brakes and stop safely.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

Here is a better looking situation IMO. Nice because the initial Stop was never hit.

 

Notice the target:cool:

 

Rewarded with a BE trade for my troubles. There was about 15 pips of profit there, before slowly creeping back to my BE stop.

 

Your initial stop loss is a worst case stop loss. What is the worst case? To me it is getting stopped into the trade having price immediately reverse hard and fast against me - you know how it is - you just sold short the high tick or bought the low tick of a move. At this point, it is a race between me and price - Can I hit the flatten button before price hits me for a full stop loss? Your initial stop, if you are doing this right, should very seldom be hit.

Yes, my trades usually do run in my direction at least initially the overwhelming majority of the time. Initial stops we usually place beyond the last swing, maybe in the case I posted this one IMO was rather large, it seems like it is reasonable to expect to sit through at least one retracement, which will sometimes be worse than your entry.

 

Here is my logic: If buying a BO, you're entering after a HL, expecting some form of trend change at least for some time, which is part of the natural flow of an uptrend. If this swing is rather small, why not keep your initial stop resting right below it. If the swing is huge then maybe consider moving the initial stop, or pass on the trade all together. But it seems like taking yourself out of the trade before that swing low is violated, i.e. an uptrend doesn't make sense?

 

Opinions?

Edited November 17, 2009 by forrestang

[johnjohn1hew 10]

Being more accountable...

 

EUR/USD and USD/CAD

 

EDIT: Sorry, charts are in the next post

[johnjohn1hew 10]

Here are the charts....

[Gabe2004 10]

Potential AJ Short.

 

Gabe

[Gabe2004 10]

Potential AJ Short.

 

Gabe

 

Similar setups.

Why did some fail

 

Gabe

[Gabe2004 10]

Similar setups.

Why did some fail

 

Gabe

 

We are at seemingly significant price level for the AJ.

 

Gabe

[Gabe2004 10]

Potential AJ Short.

 

Gabe

 

Canceled order.

Setup no longer valid but was there a LONG setup that i missed?

 

Gabe

[johnjohn1hew 10]

Update: EUR/USD, moved up stop. Price not acting as i would have liked it to.

[Don4 10]

The truth is fractals and support and resistance are the same.[ATTACH]15438[/ATTACH]

[johnjohn1hew 10]

EUR/USD now at break even.

[Don4 10]

I'll try again......................

[thalestrader 14]

Being more accountable...

 

EUR/USD and USD/CAD

 

EURUSD looks like it may have hit your first PT.

 

Here is my view of the USDCAD - very similar to your view. I do not usually trade the 6C during Asia. This does look like a decent opportunity, however. I'm eyeballing it with a 12 tick initial stop, which is small time risk. If it triggers and if it then reaches PT, I might be tempted to take 1/2 off there and let the other half ride with the initial stop.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[johnjohn1hew 10]

Thanks, Thales. When i look at my EUR/USD's first target it looks like i was being over-optimistic - choosing the highest point of that zone and not the bottom, when i should have picked the most conservative level. If i had picked the bottom, i most likely would not have even hypothetically entered because of the high risk to reward.

[johnjohn1hew 10]

EURJPY opportunity. This is countertrend as the movement is still in the main downtrend supply line. It is on the demand line of a new uptrend that could go up to the main supply line, but who knows....

 

EDIT: you can't see the main supply line of the main trend (down) - sorry.

[thalestrader 14]

For the record.

 

You'll recall a few pictures of my peewee system in action. Well its been performing quite well so today I doubled my size ... and guess what ... a record 4 losing trades in a row!!!

 

So, hopefully tomorrow, normalcy will return.

 

 

The market always seems to know when its time for your next big serving of humble pie.

 

Is peewee <50%?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

A 4 hour look at the G/J. Price has been coiling for some time. The BO should produce some nice trades.

[johnjohn1hew 10]

Dissecting that EURJPY move using the 1 min,, price is finding resistance at the midpoint of the range...not good for the upside. Maybe this dissection can be used to keep me out of trades...

[Don4 10]

5min same process but selling.

[thalestrader 14]

EURJPY opportunity. This is countertrend as the movement is still in the main downtrend supply line. It is on the demand line of a new uptrend that could go up to the main supply line, but who knows....

 

EDIT: you can't see the main supply line of the main trend (down) - sorry.

 

Looking at the EURJPY here, I'd be more inclined to short. I would be waiting for a break higher before going long. I remember a post DB made about a "Ross Hook" thread where everyone was seeing these hooks everywhere, even in the middle of nowhere. To tell you the truth, I don't really see anything here that gets me looking to enter one way or the other. I'd be waiting for something more clear.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales