Reading Charts in Real Time

[forrestang 10]

I think it looks ok. I can see a bit of potential support it may be digging into based on a wider angle. Out of curiosity, has your outlook changed based on the picture I am posting? This is the picture of the E/J, I am reposting.

 

What do you think about the G/U for a long as I have on this picture.... if it puts in a HL. This is the 2nd picture.

 

----EDIT------

Added another picture, with better looking lines. I entered this trade prematurely for sure. But just throwing it up there.

 

P1 hit with a really good fill somehow

 

Catastrophe Stop on 2nd half below most recent swing low on 5 minute(1.6799).. Going to manage the 2nd half differently. I plan to manage the remaining half on the 5min chart and exit when I get a break after/if a LH appears, the opposite of the entry trigger.

 

 

----EDIT(23:05)-----

Stop at BE on 2nd half, since going through P1.

[forrestang 10]

P1 hit with a really good fill somehow

 

Catastrophe Stop on 2nd half below most recent swing low on 5 minute(1.6799).. Going to manage the 2nd half differently. I plan to manage the remaining half on the 5min chart and exit when I get a break after/if a LH appears, the opposite of the entry trigger.

 

 

----EDIT(23:05)-----

Stop at BE on 2nd half, since going through P1.

 

Once again P2 being stopped at BE.

 

This lack of follow through on what seems to be everyone of my P2's is just killing me:) I either have poor P2 selection or just bad management. This is really making my R:R profile go to $#it

[MidKnight 12]

Hi Forrest,

 

I hear ya on that. Part of the problem may be the general market condition. But I don't know exactly. Time of day has an effect in FX for sure, but I cannot come up with any consistent rule on it. Sometimes the biggest moves start in Asia or the Asia/Europe overlap, but usually it does not. I guess it all comes down to what catalysts are driving the market. In my cursory study over the past year of intraday data on a couple pairs, recently, many of the large day moves are happening in USA session keying off news release. I have no solution or idea how to exactly use this information as I'm sure it will change soon enough. Maybe give up sleep?? :\

 

On the subject of R/R. I've been commenting about it quite a bit recently, especially how I'm unable to get even a consistent 1R result on my winners. But, I just realized that the notion of what is at risk with Thales Family Trading Co. techniques is not really the initial stop. Yes, sure, it is at risk at the beginning, but I don't think I've seen him take a full stop out yet. Just yesterday on a short EJ trade he commented about one pattern for aggressively moving to BE. I'd be surprised if his average loser is even 0.5R. Maybe when considering the R/R stats, it would be better to take it from your average loser. If nothing else, it will at least make the numbers look better :thumbs up:

 

With kind regards,

MK

[BlowFish 10]

Hi Gabe,

 

I didn't make that clear. The USA session is consistently more volatile intraday (one bar to the next and even intrabar) than any other session, especially compared with the Asia session.

 

With kind regards,

MK

 

I dunno in my 'gut' I would have to say it was the London session both provide opportunity so it's all good I guess

[BlowFish 10]

Let's see if we can determine the source of the struggle and frustration. Let me ask you (and this is for MidK, Forrest, and anyone else who cares to answer) what do you think of the long GBPUSD trade I posted this morning? Forget about the fact that it was a winning trade. If you were watching, did you see it as I did? Would you have taken it if you had seen it? Why or why not?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

 

I don't much like it. The 'immediate' trend is down and though there is S down here it seems to have broke through the first levels without much effort. The biggest issue is that there was not a '123' to trade off. Having said that neither was there at the top so on the plus side it would not be unreasonable to anticipate at least a (tradeable) retracement or test of the high.

[MidKnight 12]

Hi BlowFish,

 

I believe Thales would see that as a 1-2-3 in the making with 1 and 2 complete and anticipating the current bar or the next few to put in the 3. I shouldn't speak for him, but that is how I understand the chart.

 

With kind regards,

MK

[BlowFish 10]

Yes indeed MK. It all depends on how much you zoom in your focus. I notice that Thales looks in quite 'tight' sometimes with BO entry and stop all within the last two bars.

 

Btw I empathise with the points you made in your post yesterday except the last one (about money management).

[Kiwi 16]

For the record.

 

You'll recall a few pictures of my peewee system in action. Well its been performing quite well so today I doubled my size ... and guess what ... a record 4 losing trades in a row!!!

 

So, hopefully tomorrow, normalcy will return.

[Gabe2004 10]

Closed my GU short for another loss. This time 18 pips.

Also closed my UC long for a 3 pip loss.

Total losses for today 81 pips.

 

Gabe

 

And here is UC as I found it this morning.

About 100 pips higher.

So I picked the direction correctly but still lost $$$.

 

I looked at my initial entry with the profit target and the stop loss.

It seems that I did not give the trade enough breathing room.

 

Gabe

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

Lots of good posts, good quesyions, good observations. I am going to spend some time trying to come up with a better way to communicate what I do with you folks here on this thread.

 

I had an idea flicker a bit last night when I was preparing an initial response to MIdK's list. I will have to work on it.

 

In the mean time, two things: First, here is the current GBPUSD. This is not ideal, because I do see potential support just below what would be a break down point for me. However, the overall presentation of price leads me to at least lean toward this short being a potentially good trade. A quick break and reversal would also not surprise me.

 

As for the EURJPY, I am running a short of time this morning, but the potential long trade I posted last night busted itself up prior to the long trigger. Another long presented itself, though it was for such a small play it may not have been worth while. I went to bed immediately after posting that chart, and I didn't like it enough to do as my daughter does, which is place the order and go to bed.

 

Have a good day, I'll try to check in this evening, but I may be gone for a couple of days.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

On the subject of R/R. I've been commenting about it quite a bit recently, especially how I'm unable to get even a consistent 1R result on my winners. But, I just realized that the notion of what is at risk with Thales Family Trading Co. techniques is not really the initial stop. Yes, sure, it is at risk at the beginning, but I don't think I've seen him take a full stop out yet. Just yesterday on a short EJ trade he commented about one pattern for aggressively moving to BE. I'd be surprised if his average loser is even 0.5R. Maybe when considering the R/R stats, it would be better to take it from your average loser. If nothing else, it will at least make the numbers look better

 

I do not have time to go back and find the posts now, but many times (and recently, I might add), I have stated the following:

 

1) The only time an initial stop should be hit for a full loss is when I am stopped into a position, and price immediately races against me, and it crosses the stop line quicker than I can hit the flatten button; or I place an entry order, with OCO stop and limits, and the trade occurs while I am alsleep or occupied with other business.

 

2) I always have an initial stop loss, at least one profit target at 1R +/-, and a price level at which I will move the initial stop to BE.

 

Also, I cannot think of anyone whom I know personally, who trades successfully and who does not have a money management regimen that cuts losers small and quick while allowing for average profits larger than the average loss. An edge does not assure profitability. A sound edge can be dulled by money management unsuitable for the nature of the edge. Two different traders can trade the same exact approach (system) and one will be profitable beyond all expectation while the other churns and burns him- or herself to trading death.

 

I may not have explained the nuances of what I do as well as I could hope, but I will try to solve for that over the coming days. But I do believe I have been very clear on the way I trade futures (and now spot). I have also said many times that you should not confuse my money management and stop management on my stock trades to my futures trades, as my approach differs from one to another.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[johnjohn1hew 10]

Here is the EURJPY trade from last night. It didn't violate the trendline and presented a couple of shorting opportunities (the dots). Maybe it is best to trade in the direction of the trend (for me at least).

[johnjohn1hew 10]

Hi JohnJohn,

 

Yes, I have a journal. A few of my posts are my thoughts after reading through the journal entries. With regards to EJ, S/R is not a single price like you are describing it, but more like a zone, in my view. I would still consider EJ to be at support, but that is just my outlook.

 

With kind regards,

MK

 

True, s/r is a zone, but the bottom of that consolidation area broke down and then became the top of that congestion area. I normally draw a single line in the area that i find best represents the zone of s/r - i find it easier.

[forrestang 10]

And here is UC as I found it this morning.

About 100 pips higher.

So I picked the direction correctly but still lost $$$.

 

I looked at my initial entry with the profit target and the stop loss.

It seems that I did not give the trade enough breathing room.

 

Gabe

 

If the play was long it looks like an outright losing trade eventually. As price made that big swing low before moving up, which would have taken most of us out.

 

Your stops don't seem logical. It seems like you're not using any type of swing point or anything, and just throwing up stops in the middle of nowhere? Am i right or is there a rhyme or reason I'm not seeing?

Edited November 17, 2009 by forrestang

[forrestang 10]

And here is UC as I found it this morning.

About 100 pips higher.

So I picked the direction correctly but still lost $$$.

 

I looked at my initial entry with the profit target and the stop loss.

It seems that I did not give the trade enough breathing room.

 

Gabe

 

Here is a picture illustrating what I was saying.

[johnjohn1hew 10]

EUR/USD is at the bottom of the range it has been in.

[johnjohn1hew 10]

Just to share one of the resources i picked up from somewhere...

[johnjohn1hew 10]

Just to dissect that EUR/USD movement a little. On the 1 minute it has made a double bottom pattern with the second bottom coming down from short-term support provided by the congestion area before the first bottom occurred. A possible entry could be at the top of this congestion area for a long. Or a short below the main support level.

[forrestang 10]

E/U setting up, let's see what happens.

 

----EDIT (11:17est)------

It put in a LL so no long yet.

Edited November 17, 2009 by forrestang

[johnjohn1hew 10]

Here is the setup...

[johnjohn1hew 10]

My entry was never hit, so i never took a trade.

[Gabe2004 10]

Here is a picture illustrating what I was saying.

 

You are right about the point I was taken out.

I did not wait for the swing point because i was tired and went to sleep, so I closed the trade for a small loss.

 

Gabe

[thalestrader 14]

In the mean time, two things: First, here is the current GBPUSD. This is not ideal, because I do see potential support just below what would be a break down point for me. However, the overall presentation of price leads me to at least lean toward this short being a potentially good trade. A quick break and reversal would also not surprise me.

 

Hi Folks,

 

I just came home for lunch, and here is a pic of the GBPUSD I snapped on my way out the door this morning, and the action subsequent to the pic.

 

You may recall a post or two from last week where I showed a price pattern that in Elliot Wave terms is known as an ending diagonal. Funny how this pattern seems to show up at the end of moves. No "wave counting," no "revising a wave count." This is not about using EW to predict and forecast. It is using parts of the theory to recognize and to prepare for probabilities.

 

If you were short the GBPUSD on the break down, and you recognized the ending diagonal, you would have been prepared to cover your short for -7 ticks, while simultaneously entering a long position for two targets +15 and +25, both of which were hit. Net for the two trades would have been +8 and +18. This compared to sitting through a -37 tick loss on a whole position watching price rally through the short's initial stop.

 

See you later tonight.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

And here is UC as I found it this morning.

About 100 pips higher.

So I picked the direction correctly but still lost $$$.

 

I looked at my initial entry with the profit target and the stop loss.

It seems that I did not give the trade enough breathing room.

 

Gabe

 

 

A quick one for Gabe:

 

Gabe, the swing off of which you were trading was tiny and within a larger chop zone. You could trade it, but for tiny targets. Had I traded that swing, both of my targets would have been well within the chop zone, and one would have been hit, the second half taken out at breakeven. I also show a short in progress at the right hand edge.

 

Here are a couple of charts looking at a larger swing, with an entry point taken at the break of the upper chop zone. Size your targets to the size of the swings prior to entry - it takes a lot of energy to move a pair 100 ticks quickly, so taking a leap off of such a tiny swing in the middle of the chop, you really need to ask for and expect much less from the market than 100 ticks.

 

I have to run, so that is the best I can do as far as notes for now.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Dinerotrader 10]

Size your targets to the size of the swings prior to entry

 

The correlation between swing size and trade planning was a big breakthrough moment for me a while ago. I could see swing sizes but I didn't necessarily translate that to the trade management. Still working on it.