Reading Charts in Real Time

[brownsfan019 17]

That was a hell of a drop there on the Euro. Great job Mr. Bernanke.

[daedalus 10]

All done for the day folks.

 

Took this in the morning for some solid profit:

 

Not a whole lot of action as I stepped out for lunch and missed a lot of profit. Got back and skipped this trade:

 

Textbook entry for myself... however...

In the context of this move, I said, i'm best not to get in the way so I passed on it.

 

Caught this little scalp in the afternoon.

Not a huge P/L day for me but solid, consistent profit. I'll take it.

 

What times of the day do you guys trade? I've been doing 9AMCST-11AM, and 12PM-2PM CST to avoid morning news events and take an hour lunch.

 

But i'm thinking of moving to a 9AM-1PM CST trading day and walking away after that as we all know typically the further into the afternoon we go the less tradeable action we see. Thoughts?

 

Cheers!

[forrestang 10]

For those of you guys trading the currency futures, what are you paying per round total in fees and commissions?

[forrestang 10]

All done for the day folks.

 

Cheers!

Seems like you trading on the bar interval you are using, you'd get over 20 trades per day based on what you're doing, per pair?

 

How are you selecting the trades that you choose if I may ask?

 

Forrest

[brownsfan019 17]

 

What times of the day do you guys trade? I've been doing 9AMCST-11AM, and 12PM-2PM CST to avoid morning news events and take an hour lunch.

 

But i'm thinking of moving to a 9AM-1PM CST trading day and walking away after that as we all know typically the further into the afternoon we go the less tradeable action we see. Thoughts?

 

Cheers!

 

I only work from 8am-Noon EST. That's it. I want to be trading when things are moving, esp around news items. If you like seeing a profit occur in 60 seconds or less, it will have to be news driven more than likely.

 

As I've mentioned before, I see 1 trading day as 3 cycles:

 

Cycle 1: Morning/Open

= movements, action, volume usually present. This is when I want to participate.

 

Cycle 2: Lunch/Mid-day

= movements, action, volume usually slows down and I want no part of that.

Cycle 3: Afternoon/Close

= movements, action volume may be there. Some days it's moving and other days it's a continuation of lunch. I don't feel like coming back after focusing for 4 hours so I view this timeframe as a 50/50 shot if things will be moving and I pass on it.

 

There's plenty of reasons why cycle 1 produces the moves it does:

• Overnight orders hitting the open.
  
• Overnight news hitting the open.
  
• 8am-10am econ news - news regularly comes out during these times, which then gives the markets a reason to move.
  
• Volume is there as a result. Most days cycle 1 has volume = movements.
  

If you find that you can make good money during times when it's moving, there's really no need to keep going all day when things might be moving. If you want/need to make more, increase size.

[MidKnight 12]

Hello folks :yes sir:

 

As I'm slowly waking up from a fragmented sleep, I can't help but wonder why my results to date on this exploration are so massively different than anyone able to have success with this, especially the Thales Trading Co. results which are pulling in 30-50% gains on account on a weekly basis. If this style of trading is so simple as has been repeatedly stated, and it works, then at least some success should be possible for total newbie trader, let alone a full-time trader with 5 years of market immersion under their belt. If it is so simple, than ones 'thinking' rather than 'seeing' would not be an issue. For one would would be acting on the price action and the S/R areas.

 

Here are some of my thoughts on why I'm experiencing such stark contrasting results:

1) Thales overlays a rich contextual filter within his trade ideas.

2) While I have been paying huge emphasis on S/R (I'm referring to 240m chart). Going back through all the posts in this thread, I have seen many a trade posted where S/R isn't even considered (expressed verbally in the post) in the trade idea. When I look at it in hindsight, I feel like I wouldn't take those trades just because its right at S/R area. I'd be fearful of a false breakout. But what can I say, they seem to work.

3) Time of day has an impact on the success I think. Because Thales Trading Co. is mostly trading when the markets have volatility, it greatly helps. Price action is not just price action. Need the volatility to squeak out a profit.

4) Thales Trading Co. seems to have many little ways to move BE fast. I haven't been doing that. Partly because I hate being shaken out, but also partly because trade management is not how an edge is tested. An edge should stand on its own without trade management, of which is used to enhance an edge. Yes, I have some very very simple trade management for the exploration, but nowhere near the extent that Thales Trading Co. does.

5) So far, my results have been massively hurt by leaving on runners, holding out for the big move. I would be far far far more profitable taking everything off at 1R or even 0.5R. This is contrary to what is advocated in this thread, mind you.

6) I'm sure there are more, but my sleep starved brain hurts and that is all I can think of for now.....

 

I think the approach has some good concepts in that it frees the trader up from the question of where do I enter, where do I put my stop, how do I take targets. That aspect of trading becomes semi-mechanical. However, without the addition of context in some profitable fashion, it is difficult to gather any gains.

 

The hard thing about price action and S/R is that it is hindsight. You don't know that is support until it bounces, you don't know its just a test until it's reacted. You don't know its a HL until its printed a HH. The method accepts that of price action through waiting for confirmation. So far I'm finding that the extra confirmation isn't giving enough room to squeak out a profit. Last night was a good example with my short gbp/chf. Nearly a 100pip range for the day up until I went to bed, yet I could barely squeak out a MFE of 30pips. That's the cost of confirmation.

 

I am struggling with this approach, and that shouldn't be possible if it is a 'simple' method.

 

With kind regards,

MK

Edited November 16, 2009 by MidKnight

[daedalus 10]

For those of you guys trading the currency futures, what are you paying per round total in fees and commissions?

 

I'm paying 5.45/rt on a small Infinity account trading small size. CME Forex Futures are a higher commission rate than the e-mini's.

 

Seems like you trading on the bar interval you are using, you'd get over 20 trades per day based on what you're doing, per pair?

 

How are you selecting the trades that you choose if I may ask?

 

Forrest

 

Nah... not that many, but yea, on an 89t there can be a lot of signals depending on the time of day. But as far as criteria... i think i summed it up pretty well in this post: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/208/reading-charts-real-time-6151-112.html#post80668

 

Keep in mind though, that if I get the same signal on an 89t and a 233t, i defer to the smaller timeframe and only take the trade once (and manage it off the smallest timeframe). So a lot of entries may be valid elsewhere, but if I have the same picture on the 89t, i take it there.

 

The only other discretionary filtering is if there is a massive run up prior to a signal i'll probably skip it (as was the case today with my example) and avoiding trades that are very close to prior S/R.

[Gabe2004 10]

2) While I have been paying huge emphasis on S/R (I'm referring to 240m chart). Going back through all the posts in this thread, I have seen many a trade posted where S/R isn't even considered (expressed verbally in the post) in the trade idea. When I look at it in hindsight, I feel like I wouldn't take those trades just because its right at S/R area. I'd be fearful of a false breakout. But what can I say, they seem to work.

3) Time of day has an impact on the success I think. Because Thales Trading Co. is mostly trading when the markets have volatility, it greatly helps. Price action is not just price action. Need the volatility to squeak out a profit.

 

I agree with your # 2.

I have skipped trades because they were on SR zones only to see them turn a decent profit.

About #3 I think you are inacurate because most of the trades that I am aware off that Thales' daughter took hapened during her sleep so there was no way for her to know that volatility will be there or not.

 

Gabe

[forrestang 10]

 

Nah... not that many, but yea, on an 89t there can be a lot of signals depending on the time of day. But as far as criteria... i think i summed it up pretty well in this post: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/208/reading-charts-real-time-6151-112.html#post80668

I did read your post back when you posted it. I read that you use your value oscilator for both entries and exits. I guess I was just wondering if you meant to say that you use them for entries as well as exits?

 

Then I was wondering IF you use them for entries...... do you...... aaargh, can't phrase the question properly:crap:, no worries, good to see something is working for you.

 

I agree with your # 2.

I have skipped trades because they were on SR zones only to see them turn a decent profit.

 

Gabe

 

2) While I have been paying huge emphasis on S/R (I'm referring to 240m chart). Going back through all the posts in this thread, I have seen many a trade posted where S/R isn't even considered (expressed verbally in the post) in the trade idea. When I look at it in hindsight, I feel like I wouldn't take those trades just because its right at S/R area. I'd be fearful of a false breakout. But what can I say, they seem to work.

I am struggling with this approach, and that shouldn't be possible if it is a 'simple' method.

 

You two have just managed to confuse me. You guys are avoiding trading near S/R? I go through hell and high water to find trades that occur near S/R..... i.e. a bounce off of an established bed of support, looking to get long for example. Or are you saying you don't want to trade INTO S/R zones AFTER having initiated a trade?

 

I would say with your comments though, that has been my one criticism of the thread from the beginning...... The REASON, or more appropriately the CONTEXT of the trade.

 

For example if one sees a L-H-HL forming, is that reason enough to take the trade, or do we want some big picture context to come into play. I can't tell you how many trades i pass on because I have decided before hand where S/R lies.

 

As you can imagine this is good and bad. I miss lots of profitable trades unfortunately, and to the newer trader this can drive one mad under the right circumstances!

 

Thales,

I know you don't go through and find S/R levels in the manner maybe some of us do. I.e. the day prior. But would you say that ALL of your trades are initiated in an area of some form of S/R?

[daedalus 10]

forrestang - yes I use them for entries and exits.

[Gabe2004 10]

Potential GU SHORT trade.

 

Gabe

[Gabe2004 10]

I did read your post back when you posted it. I read that you use your value oscilator for both entries and exits. I guess I was just wondering if you meant to say that you use them for entries as well as exits?

 

Then I was wondering IF you use them for entries...... do you...... aaargh, can't phrase the question properly:crap:, no worries, good to see something is working for you.

 

 

 

 

 

You two have just managed to confuse me. You guys are avoiding trading near S/R? I go through hell and high water to find trades that occur near S/R..... i.e. a bounce off of an established bed of support, looking to get long for example. Or are you saying you don't want to trade INTO S/R zones AFTER having initiated a trade?

 

I would say with your comments though, that has been my one criticism of the thread from the beginning...... The REASON, or more appropriately the CONTEXT of the trade.

 

For example if one sees a L-H-HL forming, is that reason enough to take the trade, or do we want some big picture context to come into play. I can't tell you how many trades i pass on because I have decided before hand where S/R lies.

 

As you can imagine this is good and bad. I miss lots of profitable trades unfortunately, and to the newer trader this can drive one mad under the right circumstances!

 

Thales,

I know you don't go through and find S/R levels in the manner maybe some of us do. I.e. the day prior. But would you say that ALL of your trades are initiated in an area of some form of S/R?

 

Forrest

 

What I meant was that I would skip a trade if the entry is close to an SR line/zone and my trade is in the direction that will get me in contact with that line/zone.

If that line/zone is behind me then I'll take the trade. but sometimes there are lines/zones behind me and in front of me and that is when I skip the trade.

Because i am not sure which is more relevant.

 

Gabe

[MidKnight 12]

I agree with your # 2.

I have skipped trades because they were on SR zones only to see them turn a decent profit.

About #3 I think you are inacurate because most of the trades that I am aware off that Thales' daughter took hapened during her sleep so there was no way for her to know that volatility will be there or not.

 

Gabe

 

Hi Gabe,

 

I didn't make that clear. The USA session is consistently more volatile intraday (one bar to the next and even intrabar) than any other session, especially compared with the Asia session.

 

With kind regards,

MK

[MidKnight 12]

You two have just managed to confuse me. You guys are avoiding trading near S/R? I go through hell and high water to find trades that occur near S/R..... i.e. a bounce off of an established bed of support, looking to get long for example. Or are you saying you don't want to trade INTO S/R zones AFTER having initiated a trade?

 

Hi Forrest,

 

I'm saying that I would be looking for longs at 240m support, not shorts. I've seen many a post where just the opposite is happening.

 

With kind regards,

MK

[thalestrader 14]

I am struggling with this approach, and that shouldn't be possible if it is a 'simple' method.

 

I would say with your comments though, that has been my one criticism of the thread from the beginning...... The REASON, or more appropriately the CONTEXT of the trade. ... Thales, I know you don't go through and find S/R levels in the manner maybe some of us do. I.e. the day prior. But would you say that ALL of your trades are initiated in an area of some form of S/R?

 

Let's see if we can determine the source of the struggle and frustration. Let me ask you (and this is for MidK, Forrest, and anyone else who cares to answer) what do you think of the long GBPUSD trade I posted this morning? Forget about the fact that it was a winning trade. If you were watching, did you see it as I did? Would you have taken it if you had seen it? Why or why not?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

EDIT: PS In other words, do not focus on what happened after the trade triggered. Let's focus on what happened before the trade up to the moment of decision.

[Dinerotrader 10]

Quick look at 6B - British pound.

 

[MidKnight 12]

Let's see if we can determine the source of the struggle and frustration. Let me ask you (and this is for MidK, Forrest, and anyone else who cares to answer) what do you think of the long GBPUSD trade I posted this morning? Forget about the fact that it was a winning trade. If you were watching, did you see it as I did? Would you have taken it if you had seen it? Why or why not?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Yes I saw it, but there was no S/R to act upon plus I was short gbp/chf at the time. I saw the pattern happening on gbp/chf, but again there was no specific support to act upon and I was working off the assumption that once R is tested, it will go to next S.

 

With kind regards,

MK

 

EDIT: Thales, while you may call that testing support, the zone is too large for me to trade off and it is only the 15m support view. Sure sometimes this view is valid, but is it reliable? Is it more reliable looking at the more obvious bigger picture S/R? I had thought it would be....

[Gabe2004 10]

Let's see if we can determine the source of the struggle and frustration. Let me ask you (and this is for MidK, Forrest, and anyone else who cares to answer) what do you think of the long GBPUSD trade I posted this morning? Forget about the fact that it was a winning trade. If you were watching, did you see it as I did? Would you have taken it if you had seen it? Why or why not?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

EDIT: PS In other words, do not focus on what happened after the trade triggered. Let's focus on what happened before the trade up to the moment of decision.

 

 

I would not have taken the trade because there was not enough separation between the L-H-HL.

 

For some reason I was under the impression that there has to be some bars between the L bar and the H bar and between the H bar and the HL bar to make it a valid setup.

 

Gabe

[thalestrader 14]

Yes I saw it, but ... I was short gbp/chf at the time. I saw the pattern happening on gbp/chf

 

That's something for you to think about, perhaps.

 

Yes I saw it, but there was no S/R to act upon ... again there was no specific support to act upon and I was working off the assumption that once R is tested, it will go to next S.

 

EDIT: Thales, while you may call that testing support, the zone is too large for me to trade off and it is only the 15m support view. Sure sometimes this view is valid, but is it reliable? Is it more reliable looking at the more obvious bigger picture S/R? I had thought it would be....

 

Well, here is a series of charts of the GBPUSD. I have kept comments to a minimum. You know what the rectangles represent to me when I draw them.

 

What do you think of what you see here?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

I would not have taken the trade because there was not enough separation between the L-H-HL.

 

For some reason I was under the impression that there has to be some bars between the L bar and the H bar and between the H bar and the HL bar to make it a valid setup.

 

 

Have I said that somewhere? I'm not saying I didn't, but it doesn't sound like me. I'd like to see the example in which I said that t see why I would have said that.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[sw9 10]

Let's see if we can determine the source of the struggle and frustration. Let me ask you (and this is for MidK, Forrest, and anyone else who cares to answer) what do you think of the long GBPUSD trade I posted this morning? Forget about the fact that it was a winning trade. If you were watching, did you see it as I did? Would you have taken it if you had seen it? Why or why not?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

EDIT: PS In other words, do not focus on what happened after the trade triggered. Let's focus on what happened before the trade up to the moment of decision.

 

 

 

 

 

Yes I would have taken the trade:

 

Price just bounced off higher time frame support near 1.6666

 

Formed a higher low in the direction of the trend.

 

Next larger time frame resistance near 1.6740

 

 

Steve

[MidKnight 12]

G'day Thales,

 

Thanks for all the charts. I'm not sure what you are alluding to in recap4 over what is shown in recap3. The same goes for recaps 7 & 8 with the light blue rectangle.

[MidKnight 12]

Yes I would have taken the trade:

 

Price just bounced off higher time frame support near 1.6666

 

Formed a higher low in the direction of the trend.

 

Next larger time frame resistance near 1.6740

 

 

Steve

 

Hi Steve,

 

I see no higher TF support there at 1.6666 area. If you are referring to the high made in late OCT, keep in mind it did blow through that zone 5 times since this time it 'working'....

[Gabe2004 10]

Have I said that somewhere? I'm not saying I didn't, but it doesn't sound like me. I'd like to see the example in which I said that t see why I would have said that.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

 

I didn't sa that you said that. I said that I was under the impression that that is the case.

Probably that was my impression because most of the examples that you presented had a few bars elapse between the L-H-HL and the H-L-LH.

 

If any setup of the above is valid without taking into account how many bars elapsed between the swing points then that is good to know.

 

Gabe

[thalestrader 14]

Price just bounced off higher time frame support near 1.6666

 

Formed a higher low in the direction of the trend.

 

 

I see no higher TF support there at 1.6666 area.

 

I don't know that I'd characterize 1.666x as higher TF support, but I feel it was a noticeable possible stopping point if price were to resume its uptrend. The HL in the direction of the trend is what I see.

 

I'm not sure what you are alluding to in recap4 over what is shown in recap3. The same goes for recaps 7 & 8 with the light blue rectangle.

 

As I zoom out, I see that price is in an uptrend, and that price is trading within a zone that I considered potential support within the uptrend. The larger lighter blue rectabgle shows a larger zone, while the smaller rectangles is extrapolated from what I when I look at the most recent activity on the 15 minute chart.

 

It would seem, MidK, as though I may have a more expansive notion of what constitutes S/R for my purposes compared to yours.

 

I will have to give some thought to how I might better communicate what I am looking at when I make my decisions.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales