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thalestrader

Reading Charts in Real Time

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As BF mentioned, Snag It is a great program. You might also want to check out QuickShot, which can be downloaded free from Image Shack (it takes screenshots and uploads them to your Image Shack account, then provides a link to the image so you can easily add it to a forum post), and also instead of using a program, you can just use Ctrl+Print Screen and then paste the image into good software such as Paint.NET (free), the Gimp (free), or Photoshop. You will have good results doing that.

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I'll also attest to the value of snagit.

 

Here's the rest of the morning with snagit 8. I wasn't monitoring this trade ... I was gardening but had convinced myself I should trust Peewee and Sierra Chart to do their thing.

 

Save as ping or gif for small size with clarity.

 

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=14424&stc=1&d=1256106825

5aa70f408d30f_10-21-20094-31-19PM.png.ccd3187f25788b663c32ace7aadfaa98.png

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We are in the 50% retracement area since the bottom in January to the recent high in August.

It's a long shot but 151.40 looks like a reasonable target.

Going out on a limb here, it should take about a month to get there.

 

Gabe

 

We did 80% of the move in 1 week (about 100 pips to go).

Too bad I did not listen to myself.

Should have taken a long term position.

 

Gabe

GJ_Oct_21_2009_Daily.JPG.e8ca599c98c13265c020694ed01aa672.JPG

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This USDCAD could, of course, go either way. But right now price action is leading me to anticipate higher prices. New buy point would be approx 1.0530, with targets at +100, +190, and +325 ticks.

 

Hi Folks,

 

Current look at USDCAD shows that a buy stop at 1.0530 would have been triggered.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa70f409a6d2_10-21-2009USDCAD1.thumb.jpg.046fcf8813bdf0b6df99e4215d73ade9.jpg

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Hi Folks,

 

Current look at USDCAD shows that a buy stop at 1.0530 would have been triggered.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Again, anything can happen ... USDCAD has moved up as high as +50. A +20 stop loss on at least part of the position would be justified, with a stop on the remaining position either at break even or at 1.0522 (-8) which was the last reaction low after the entry was triggered. The point is to let your profits run to target, but do not let what is currently a nice profit run into a losing trade.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

EDIT: PS +20 would put it right at the mid-figure, so perhaps +15 for now might be more prudent.

 

EDIT II: As I was typing the first edit, I see, according to FXCM, that the low of this pullback as of now was 1.05493, so a +20 stop on a partial would have been triggered.

5aa70f409f68a_10-21-2009USDCAD2.thumb.jpg.f5f0bf05ff6bb0fb0e897d040d82d04f.jpg

Edited by thalestrader

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50% retracement of GJ has been reached.

Now if only I would trust stats more.......

Next target would be 157.20 to the up side or 145.60 to the down side.

I am betting on the down side.

 

Gabe

GJ_Oct_21_2009_Daily_1.png.257092451f46acfe39dc8eb906c90ac0.png

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Again, anything can happen ...

 

No matter how you managed this trade, there is no reason to have remained long to this point. If a bull move is going to continue, the market will provide another opportunity to participate.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa70f40a9b6c_10-21-2009USDCAD3.thumb.jpg.773354645efb3fe8adfaf98c64aa79c8.jpg

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Here is a breakout I am looking for on the ZN this morning.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=14433&stc=1&d=1256132116

 

We didn't get the breakout yet. The breakout earlier in the morning I noted would have provided the better intraday position so far.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=14434&stc=1&d=1256133631

5aa70f40b110e_ZN10-21-09.thumb.jpg.be50b5ed2e76183fea50b739167109d0.jpg

5aa70f40ba16d_zn10-21-092.thumb.jpg.6d762e29c3accc06f6773f360f9ba475.jpg

Edited by Dinerotrader

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I am only looking at ths breakout because I have watched this stock a lot over the past few weeks and it can have huge moves up on breakouts. It had some major sell offs 2 days ago and yesterday this morning has some reasonable consolidation. My buy stop is at 3.68. Stop loss will be 3.65 because I am not looking for a slow channel move up. It either pops or I am out with a minimal loss.

Ticker: YRCW

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=14438&stc=1&d=1256139699

5aa70f40c97b7_YRCW10-21-09.thumb.png.81f4917b3983cc543b4135c011ff7e8f.png

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No matter how you managed this trade, there is no reason to have remained long to this point...

 

The importance of cutting losses short. I had anticipated a much larger move to the upside, but the market had other ideas.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa70f40ce9fc_10-21-2009USDCAD4.thumb.jpg.3c6e7713b79d156f18053c9ec5fc6e52.jpg

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I am only looking at ths breakout because I have watched this stock a lot over the past few weeks and it can have huge moves up on breakouts. It had some major sell offs 2 days ago and yesterday this morning has some reasonable consolidation. My buy stop is at 3.68. Stop loss will be 3.65 because I am not looking for a slow channel move up. It either pops or I am out with a minimal loss.

Ticker: YRCW

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=14438&stc=1&d=1256139699

 

Never got my breakout but I will be watching that area going forward.

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Here is a breakout I am looking for on the ZN this morning.

 

We didn't get the breakout yet. The breakout earlier in the morning I noted would have provided the better intraday position so far.

 

ZN Trade

 

Just a few comments/thoughts on this set up noted on the chart below.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=14451&stc=1&d=1256157506

5aa70f410da1c_10-21-20092.thumb.png.4af871cf4b5a2ee7055411d387e0ee3e.png

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ZN Trade

 

Just a few comments/thoughts on this set up noted on the chart below.

 

I don't think your reasoning was bad. I think obviously yeah the trend was down, but in that scenario I would have been looking for the upside breakout myself as that would have been the easiest to spot, i.e., it's easy to see a S/R level when price is rejected multiple times.

 

If you are going to play the reversal, what is your entry criteria going to be?

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I don't think your reasoning was bad. I think obviously yeah the trend was down, but in that scenario I would have been looking for the upside breakout myself as that would have been the easiest to spot, i.e., it's easy to see a S/R level when price is rejected multiple times.

 

If you are going to play the reversal, what is your entry criteria going to be?

 

3 things

 

1. I am still in education and "strategy discovery" territory so I am trying lots of ideas out and trying to see what sticks in my head as good risk reward plays.

 

2. I would like to have 1-3 different setups or strategies I am looking for. One setup would be a small scalp type trade with a very tight stop. Another setup would be trying to hone in on larger moves.

 

3. As far as a reversal would go on such short time frames as I was looking, I would note a S/R level with a few touch points and enter at one of the touch points expecting price to reverse once again with a stop just above the S/R level. Stop would be like 1 tick and profit target would be like 2-4 ticks depending on how price was moving. With how price acts on the ES, this would be hard to pull off but the ZN appears to make these short term S/R levels more tradable with less fakeouts. I am hoping to identify a few factors to improve my statistics for such entries.

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Had a signal ealier that worked against me.

Had one better later but i did not take it :(

And now the 3rd signal.

 

Gabe

 

Moved my stop down and was hit.

On top of that I reversed and went long but chickened out IMMEDIATELY and closed the long.

 

I am definately not there yet. :(

 

Gabe

EJ_Oct_21_2009_1H_1.PNG.62af92fcb9bf23f658ef4cc6f51a0849.PNG

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Here are my two trades I've got on tonight.

 

I wanted to take the G/J too, but didn't take it because I didn't want to put on 3 trades after the T.O. I put myself on.

 

Both trades are kinda iffy, not moving the way I want. Both are really close to resistance, and will need a real B.O., but if they do they should both provide some good 'liquidity' as Kiwi puts it in my direction. Both have quick targets though to possibly capture something. So this thing breaks or it doesn't.

 

If not I think they are ok based on what I do. The targets are not visible as I can't get enough data on the charts, will update later if I am not stopped out.

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Here are my two trades I've got on tonight.

 

I wanted to take the G/J too, but didn't take it because I didn't want to put on 3 trades after the T.O. I put myself on.

 

1) Your charts are very difficult to see - it is almost as if they are invisible.

 

2) What is a "T.O."?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

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1) Your charts are very difficult to see - it is almost as if they are invisible.

 

2) What is a "T.O."?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Ooops, my bad :crap:

 

A T.O. is a "TimeOut"..... I put myself on a T.O. because I made that execution error the other day where instead of placing my stop at B.E. the other day, I put it 100 pips higher as I obviously wasn't paying attention...... turning what I wanted to be a B.E. trade into a 100Pip loss!

 

The two trades where the E/U and G/U. Stopped on E/U, so here is an updated picture of the still live G/U trade. I may have been expecting the B.O., and should have ACTUALLY played the B.O. which would have been higher entries, instead of trying to jump the gun to get aboard soon. Looks like I might eat two stops today... :(

 

Like a wise man once said, "I would bet that 90%+ of all trades that were breakeven or losses that are blamed on "false breakouts" are nothing more than a trader trading a test to establish a level's importance, rather than the breakout from a level the significance of which has already been established."

 

------EDIT------

Yep two full stopouts. Crappy week for me thus far. :(

21Oct2009_Summary.thumb.jpg.76feb6d1bc823ffa04d07cd87154c87f.jpg

Edited by forrestang

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Here are a few questions about the ES for Thales or anyone who has an opinion.

 

Question1: The gap today was minimal to non-existant. Does this usually invalidate the type of trading you like to do on the ES? If the gap is filled, do you take trades in the direction of the fill, or opposite, just more explanation on that please?

 

For this next two questions, please see the chart. The left is a 24 hour 15 min for some type of larger view and context.

 

Question2: As shown on the pic at point 1, there was really no big picture context at that level, but there where two tests to speak of. Is this a trade you would be interested in?

 

Question3: As shown on the pic at point 2, there is a bit of bigger picture context in that the level was tested 3 times, and also is the RTH high. Does this seem like a trade that makes sense in terms of ES trading? Also do the green targets above make sense? Or would you say this breakout point is a bad location due to the various overhead resistance points?

5aa70f42110b4_ESQuestion.thumb.jpg.2249ef52600e8ecb438f9de4e3a5d9f8.jpg

Edited by forrestang

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Here is an interesting chart. Playing some sort of breakout or reversal within the channel appears reasonable here but I feel like maybe the setup is not optimal enough to take. Waiting to take the very best setups with the best risk/reward profiles is something I am currently working on. I will probably just watch this one play out.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=14477&stc=1&d=1256230803

5aa70f42196db_10-22-20091.thumb.png.100c3a30caa3a2b0911c8b2497d39491.png

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Here is an interesting chart. Playing some sort of breakout or reversal within the channel appears reasonable here but I feel like maybe the setup is not optimal enough to take. Waiting to take the very best setups with the best risk/reward profiles is something I am currently working on. I will probably just watch this one play out.

 

 

Cool chart!! Something I've found interesting when in a channel like that, for indication into which way it may break is a series of HLs or LHs.

 

For example, if it's going to break to the downside, I think if it starts to display a series of LHs into the Support, while the bottom remains relatively flat is a good trade to the downside.

 

This is just one factor to look at of course, but an observation nonetheless. See the picture of breakage to the downside.

observation.jpg.65adfb810a7ef000fdf4b5726ab09a44.jpg

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