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thalestrader

Reading Charts in Real Time

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Short from 1.3713, 1.3280, 1.3204, and 1.3186 ... looking for the move to continue down to 1.3000-1.29000. Of course, it can do anything it wants to do, and stops are trailing behind.

 

Current view of the EUZRUSD has us with an additional short at 1.3090 and a stop on the whole "kit and caboodle" at 1.3186, which will yield +527, +94, +18, +0, and -84. For anyone interested, we are using about 20% of total equity as margin on this position.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=23121&stc=1&d=1291116846

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa7104981bfd_2010-11-30EURUSDShortTradeLevels1.thumb.jpg.98686eee00fda6aba2bb261a46242283.jpg

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Current view of 6E reminds me of a post by Marko some time ago - if it channels, it is probably corrective. I drew the lower trend line, coppied it, and slid the copy to the upper position - right now 6E is in a perfect choppy channel, and I'd expect the break to be down.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=23117&stc=1&d=1291086212

 

Some patterns are so reliable that if only one could muster the patience to wait for these to develop and only trade such patterns, trading would be easy. Of course, such patience is rare ...

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=23122&stc=1&d=1291117414

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa7104988227_2010-11-306Echannel1.thumb.jpg.1be937058ac0921d689acd251605e6a6.jpg

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Some patterns are so reliable that if only one could muster the patience to wait for these to develop and only trade such patterns, trading would be easy. Of course, such patience is rare ...

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=23122&stc=1&d=1291117414

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

What currency pair or instrument is the above chart?

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Hey guys,

 

I took the first couple of days off this week to do some work, but I'll be back trading/posting for NY in the morning...

 

I like posting...it helps keep me accountable and focused...

 

-Cory

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Current view of the EURUSD has us with an additional short at 1.3090 and a stop on the whole "kit and caboodle" at 1.3186, which will yield +527, +94, +18, +0, and -84. For anyone interested, we are using about 20% of total equity as margin on this position.

 

Current view of the EURUSD has us with another additional short at 1.2984, and a stop on the whole "kit and caboodle" at 1.3090, which will yield +623, +190, +114, +0 and -106 ...

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=23127&stc=1&d=1291168631

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa71049afc52_2010-11-30EURUSDShortTradeLevels2.thumb.jpg.dec346e2ad950674bacc0ea7600fccca.jpg

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Hey Thales,

 

I don't understand why you trail your stop to those locations for those are the type of areas you added to on a limit order a couple of days ago - can you convey your logic there?

 

With thanks,

MK

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Currently long the UJ with a measured-move PT...

 

UPDATE: Now that my open equity has surpassed 1R, I am moving my stop to BE+1 tick (1 tick to counter potential slippage).

 

UPDATE 2: Price almost reached my profit target, backed off, and is now giving it another go...I've moved my stop a tick below the low between the two attempts at my PT.

 

FINAL UPDATE: PT filled.

5aa71049b49d0_USDJPY12_1_2010(15Min).jpg.c3b0e3ca6a1418ac793a72265d116c25.jpg

5aa71049ba559_USDJPY12_1_2010(15Min)2.jpg.667d30a1548424d18858fc88985f38ad.jpg

5aa71049bfbea_USDJPY12_1_2010(15Min)4.jpg.0c668032ae55fd103ed5d20392ecd16c.jpg

5aa71049c68a7_USDJPY12_1_2010(15Min)5.jpg.0c016daa5a3f7ce896cc00bfe0e742aa.jpg

Edited by Cory2679

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Hey Thales,

 

I don't understand why you trail your stop to those locations for those are the type of areas you added to on a limit order a couple of days ago - can you convey your logic there?

 

Short from 1.3713, 1.3280, 1.3204, and 1.3186 ... looking for the move to continue down to 1.3000-1.29000. Of course, it can do anything it wants to do, and stops are trailing behind.

 

As price approaches and enters our S/R target, stops get tighter and tighter as the likelihood of an immanent reversal rises. On the daily chart below, the area between the hash lines represents the 1.2900-1.300 target level for this move. We were willing to add in case the move would have continued, but we did not want to risk more than 50% of our open profit. Also, when pyramiding, we try to keep margin as a % of equity to 33% or less. As price moves against us, margin as a % of equity rises. If it rises to 33% or higher, we stop ourselves out of at least part of the position to bring margin as a % of equity below 25%, and preferably at 20% or below.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=23132&stc=1&d=1291209372

 

Had last week not been Thanksgiving week, we'd have added to our position at much higher levels, and it would have been apparent that we keep our stop much farther away when we anticipate a sizable swing is underway. But as we move closer and closer to S/R, we "ratchet" our stop in - typically moving the stop to the last entry once price is both a) below a break point and 2) 100+ ticks from that entry. We then add to the position with a market order somewhat above the next break low point.

 

For example, our second to last add was at 1.3090. A few hours prior to that, price made a low of 1.3067. From that low, price rallied to 1.3123, pulled back,rallied to 1.3149, and then fell back below 1.31232. We entered short at the market which at the time gave aus a 1.3090 fill. Why add there and not wait for the break of 1.3067? Because this way, when we move our stop to break even, a reaction back to test "support now resistance" should cause a test of 1.3067 +/- a handful of ticks, and our stop should be safe from a shake out on that test.

 

How's that?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

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Potential for another long on the UJ...

 

UPDATE: Entry filled and stop now moved to BE+1 tick.

 

UPDATE 2: PT1 filled and stop moved up.

 

UPDATE 3: Stop moved up.

 

FINAL UPDATE: Second half stopped for a small profit.

5aa71049d7470_USDJPY12_1_2010(15Min).jpg.2df4ffc62d0c60412fc5962c14fca39d.jpg

5aa71049dc18b_USDJPY12_1_2010(15Min)2.jpg.b54e6f721bd6d764db86012d3eb4fd53.jpg

5aa71049e011f_USDJPY12_1_2010(15Min)3.jpg.3e7f29ab23397c12e9063d6db9e8ff1a.jpg

5aa71049ef7ca_USDJPY12_1_2010(15Min)4.jpg.63241284b643d792636c6c543d4e1fc7.jpg

5aa71049f39e2_USDJPY12_1_2010(15Min)5.jpg.30b28e71bf7da3fc2dfedd25bbe40211.jpg

Edited by Cory2679

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As price approaches and enters our S/R target, stops get tighter and tighter as the likelihood of an immanent reversal rises. On the daily chart below, the area between the hash lines represents the 1.2900-1.300 target level for this move. We were willing to add in case the move would have continued, but we did not want to risk more than 50% of our open profit. Also, when pyramiding, we try to keep margin as a % of equity to 33% or less. As price moves against us, margin as a % of equity rises. If it rises to 33% or higher, we stop ourselves out of at least part of the position to bring margin as a % of equity below 25%, and preferably at 20% or below.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=23132&stc=1&d=1291209372

 

Had last week not been Thanksgiving week, we'd have added to our position at much higher levels, and it would have been apparent that we keep our stop much farther away when we anticipate a sizable swing is underway. But as we move closer and closer to S/R, we "ratchet" our stop in - typically moving the stop to the last entry once price is both a) below a break point and 2) 100+ ticks from that entry. We then add to the position with a market order somewhat above the next break low point.

 

For example, our second to last add was at 1.3090. A few hours prior to that, price made a low of 1.3067. From that low, price rallied to 1.3123, pulled back,rallied to 1.3149, and then fell back below 1.31232. We entered short at the market which at the time gave aus a 1.3090 fill. Why add there and not wait for the break of 1.3067? Because this way, when we move our stop to break even, a reaction back to test "support now resistance" should cause a test of 1.3067 +/- a handful of ticks, and our stop should be safe from a shake out on that test.

 

How's that?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

That was excellent - thanks a lot Thales :)

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Was short the GU, but before I could post I got to BE+1 tick and was taken out...I wasn't going to allow it much breathing room seeing as I was essentially fading a very recent impulsive upmove...

5aa7104a28714_GBPUSD12_2_2010(15Min).jpg.e3ba88805210a260cb44b9d9dbd0ed0c.jpg

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Potential short on the UJ...

 

UPDATE: Stop moved to BE+1 tick...price went in my favor, bounced at the 61.8% fib retracement, kissed my entry, and backed off...I'm not going to allow it another try upward...if it's going to profit with me, it's gotta go now...

 

FINAL UPDATE: Taken out @ BE (+1 tick)...

5aa7104a484f9_USDJPY12_2_2010(15Min).jpg.7b57a7c6635acfa1182b895ef027ae3f.jpg

5aa7104a4ce3d_USDJPY12_2_2010(15Min)2.jpg.31961789a2951732f6b386394d416bd5.jpg

5aa7104a5192e_USDJPY12_2_2010(15Min)3.jpg.101b2c14cdcc122b12222704d34cbfa1.jpg

Edited by Cory2679

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Currently long the EJ...I'm honestly a little nervous about this one...:o

 

UPDATE: Stop moved up.

 

UPDATE 2: Stop moved up, again.

 

UPDATE 3: Stop @ BE+1 tick ::sigh of relief::

5aa7104a6be5f_EURJPY12_3_2010(15Min).thumb.jpg.4938c7a2ea48b72f16c109b47a29c264.jpg

5aa7104a7376c_EURJPY12_3_2010(15Min)2.thumb.jpg.0ab6d1b09d0d92d31efbc1a772198e21.jpg

5aa7104a79dfb_EURJPY12_3_2010(15Min)3.thumb.jpg.c124da9529adf8273b39e5c7295b5303.jpg

5aa7104a810d9_EURJPY12_3_2010(15Min)4.thumb.jpg.0e1e42c2114e6271115f8cadc79cbc49.jpg

Edited by Cory2679

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Currently long the EJ...I'm honestly a little nervous about this one...:o

 

UPDATE: Stop moved up.

 

UPDATE 2: Stop moved up, again.

 

UPDATE 3: Stop @ BE+1 tick ::sigh of relief::

 

UPDATE 4: Stop moved up.

5aa7104a87910_EURJPY12_3_2010(15Min).thumb.jpg.e25cf31e7a685643d7be73fd99290248.jpg

5aa7104a8e98f_EURJPY12_3_2010(15Min)2.thumb.jpg.0cc442f64a372a8659d7544d287a50a2.jpg

5aa7104a94f86_EURJPY12_3_2010(15Min)3.thumb.jpg.8aba46abf3f7dacc524997308a68ade4.jpg

5aa7104a9c496_EURJPY12_3_2010(15Min)4.thumb.jpg.5680e9a296f5de8123fccd6466bea7a9.jpg

5aa7104aa239b_EURJPY12_3_2010(15Min)5.thumb.jpg.7ce9ec995a7c74d73f2111e2c71c2eca.jpg

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Currently long the EJ...I'm honestly a little nervous about this one...:o

 

UPDATE: Stop moved up.

 

UPDATE 2: Stop moved up, again.

 

UPDATE 3: Stop @ BE+1 tick ::sigh of relief::

 

UPDATE 4: Stop moved up.

 

UPDATE 5: Stop moved up again. I can't believe that this trade has been on for over 4 hours! haha Somebody needs to throw some coal on the fire! If I haven't been taken out by then, I'm going to pull it at 3:55PM Eastern Time (looking at last week, it looks like FXCM Micro cuts their data at about 4PM on Fridays)...

5aa7104aa8eca_EURJPY12_3_2010(15Min).thumb.jpg.101780fec6e0c20d1d0950eb74cb660c.jpg

5aa7104aaf1fc_EURJPY12_3_2010(15Min)2.thumb.jpg.9900fe8e0b594b016e9e011a993a1329.jpg

5aa7104b240a3_EURJPY12_3_2010(15Min)3.thumb.jpg.95338f6e9fa00223dbc1b4e049f4f115.jpg

5aa7104b2b2c2_EURJPY12_3_2010(15Min)4.thumb.jpg.a445216bec46b0a9020a9d5044606603.jpg

5aa7104b31cdd_EURJPY12_3_2010(15Min)5.thumb.jpg.5374ec78135a30437d74f45b0f0b3057.jpg

5aa7104b38aa4_EURJPY12_3_2010(15Min)6.thumb.jpg.23e61aebba5ee2755bd2a65d97a298b3.jpg

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Currently long the EJ...I'm honestly a little nervous about this one...:o

 

UPDATE: Stop moved up.

 

UPDATE 2: Stop moved up, again.

 

UPDATE 3: Stop @ BE+1 tick ::sigh of relief::

 

UPDATE 4: Stop moved up.

 

UPDATE 5: Stop moved up again. I can't believe that this trade has been on for over 4 hours! haha Somebody needs to throw some coal on the fire! If I haven't been taken out by then, I'm going to pull it at 3:55PM Eastern Time (looking at last week, it looks like FXCM Micro cuts their data at about 4PM on Fridays)...

 

UPDATE 6: Stop moved again...pretty tight...it's almost time to pull it...

 

FINAL UPDATE: Trade pulled for a profit.

5aa7104b3ede9_EURJPY12_3_2010(15Min).thumb.jpg.a406dc174d753279770b8c6f49c2da9e.jpg

5aa7104b45c53_EURJPY12_3_2010(15Min)2.thumb.jpg.6875868da6260b23c340a4bc1fc5b434.jpg

5aa7104b4cf83_EURJPY12_3_2010(15Min)3.thumb.jpg.6f0e41fcf6848a025bd793cc76bf0d38.jpg

5aa7104b534ab_EURJPY12_3_2010(15Min)4.thumb.jpg.99ce158645c927cff212338ad5425be9.jpg

5aa7104b597a3_EURJPY12_3_2010(15Min)5.thumb.jpg.3e1d2b23687923949aefa8fb9d4cb4e6.jpg

5aa7104b60dd0_EURJPY12_3_2010(15Min)6.thumb.jpg.615c261a09ca2c024b913ed62777442b.jpg

5aa7104b67e33_EURJPY12_3_2010(15Min)7.thumb.jpg.a8e360840c09c73ff12b33fe4a5dd647.jpg

5aa7104b6ef41_EURJPY12_3_2010(15Min)8.thumb.jpg.8dc64ad2e6075ccfb082d337501c2f73.jpg

Edited by Cory2679

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Looking at a potential short on the EU...

 

UPDATE 1: Entry filled and stop moved down (plus BE-point and PT's added)...

 

UPDATE 2: Stop moved down, again.

5aa7104b7b89c_EURUSD12_5_2010(15Min).jpg.147a6e460a535cc238f3ab790c33bbcb.jpg

5aa7104b7f579_EURUSD12_5_2010(15Min)2.jpg.350c61af297d8a829af50e0cb3a75257.jpg

5aa7104b83027_EURUSD12_5_2010(15Min)3.jpg.9ecf6ea5d858efdc20d923c3f6146252.jpg

Edited by Cory2679

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Looking at a potential short on the EU...

 

UPDATE 1: Entry filled and stop moved down (plus BE-point and PT's added)...

 

UPDATE 2: Stop moved down, again.

 

UPDATE 3: Stop @ BE+1 tick...because of the potential support level I drew...

 

UPDATE 4: Stop on half has been moved down (and I cleaned up the chart a little).

5aa7104b86d45_EURUSD12_5_2010(15Min).jpg.6cece07091a4906c2011335bc4fa6083.jpg

5aa7104b8bc9c_EURUSD12_5_2010(15Min)2.jpg.62b477a55e1fef5309bbbfdbd0088110.jpg

5aa7104b914c3_EURUSD12_5_2010(15Min)3.jpg.d719a0d20b3769d95b4c152230df6cce.jpg

5aa7104b95067_EURUSD12_5_2010(15Min)4.jpg.d935704c7f4846bfae3a85116d5d7253.jpg

5aa7104b98c44_EURUSD12_5_2010(15Min)5.jpg.f1cad496a264b7b74ac99cca638e56d9.jpg

Edited by Cory2679

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