Reading Charts in Real Time

[forrestang 10]

Posting this here as at the moment I am liking the trade less and less. Close to getting stopped out as well as price appears to want to go the direction opposite I'm looking.

 

This ledge we're creating at the lows has me concerned... initially I was jazzed about the db at support. Not so much anymore.

 

U can see entry and stop. Tgt still pending.

 

 

 

------UPDATE--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The trade suprisingly looks better. I'm BE now and was getting worried but we've developed some momentum to the upside. I'm looking to get to the highs or beyond depending on how pa develops. I'm pretty much willing to give my BE stop some room to work for now.

 

 

 

-----UPDATE #2---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

At this point we've broken the channel I've cosntructed pretty hard. So momentum is strong... or this could be the exhaustive move up as we've reached the upper edge of my minor range.

 

At this point I've closed 3/4 of my position for about 45 pips. Watching the last 1/4 as pa continues to develop. My hard take profit is up around 3153s at the moment for that last 1/4... so I'll continue to watch and update.

 

Edited September 21, 2010 by forrestang

[forrestang 10]

So I'm still in, and i closed 1/2 of the 1/4 position I had on at that resistance area high shown on the charts... and price stalled.

 

I'm holding a small portion with a stop shown on chart.... with anticipation for possible BO. If we breakdown and explore the other side of the range, I'll be out.

 

 

 

------------UPDATE--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Just updating as I'm watching here. But I'm showing how pa is developing. I'm using these TLs and OB lines to gauge momentum etc. I don't have much size left in this trade, but this just shows how I'm kinda looking to gauge this pa at these highs right now.

 

I think the point highlighted is a deciding point as to whether we BO higher or fall back in the range. It's highly subjective but I'm showing the projections here.

 

Edited September 21, 2010 by forrestang

[forrestang 10]

And I'm out of total position.

 

Closed out that last 1/8 for about 75 pips or so. I had a hard sell stop I forgot about that triggered. Probably not the best exit manner. And I also should have managed that position better, I am horrible at scaling.

 

But we did get a reaction near that point we were watching.

 

[thalestrader 14]

And I'm out of total position...

 

Nice series of posts with charts, Forrest. I hope to see more. So are you focusing on the EURUSD during London AM these days?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

Nice series of posts with charts, Forrest. I hope to see more. So are you focusing on the EURUSD during London AM these days?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Thank you sir!!

 

Well, I've more or less managed to re-orient my sleep schedule, so I trade London, mainly look to catch moves from 1-4am CST. Then trade US session, mainly focused on everything prior to lunch.

 

I'm catching sleep when I can anytime in between that pretty much.

 

Whilst trading London, I'm usually chatting with a few buddies, we reference charts from this thread quite often.

 

---edit----

Oh btw.... yes, of the currencies I watch during London, I really only watch E/U, unless someone sends me a chart of something else.

Edited September 21, 2010 by forrestang

[thalestrader 14]

Whilst ...

 

"Whilst"? Have you moved to London as well?

 

 

... I'm usually chatting with a few buddies, we reference charts from this thread quite often...

 

That's good to hear - There are some real useful contributions here in this thread from many TL members.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Euro is UP ...

 

EURUSD weekly chart ... Low ... High ... Higher Low ... Higher High? ...

 

 

ZOOM IN

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

"Whilst"? Have you moved to London as well?

LOL Thales. Here is a trade that will relate to that high you posted on the above charts. Lets see what happens when my long gets up there.

 

Heres a long I just got into literally a few minutes ago, posting as price is currently BELOW my entry. So far pb to prior swing area, may be good support? Looking for the nice move up, but will watch pa, particularly IF it gets up to yesterdays highs and how it acts up there. Will update, just getting it out there.

 

 

 

 

-----UPDATE--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Got some decent movement initially. So my stop is BE. As if it comes all the way down to my BE, price pretty much will have traveled this current little range and I dont want to be in. Here is a pic of the current Dline and Slines I'm watching for the initial management.

 

 

 

-----UPDATE--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Closed 1/3 at that TL break at the highs, the rest resting at BE. I'm anticipating possible ranged trading now, although I am trading to catch the break, so for me it's more about HOW price acts while it is up here. So I am watching PA, why I was aggressive on taking something at the highs, in case we start ranging and that pierce of the highs was just an upthrust to start us ranging.

 

 

 

-----UPDATE(1:50CST)-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Just to note, the ultimate goal would be to get up to about 1.3383, but that is a waaaays off. So we'll continue to watch.

 

-----UPDATE(1:52CST)-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hehe, one other note, I will be closely monitoring that 1.3334 level, as that was a major swing high from a ways back. If we get there that will be about an automatic scale.

 

-----UPDATE(2:07CST)-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here we go. I closed out another 1/3 on this Dline break I'm showing on my chart. I'm holding the final 1/3 with a stop as shown by the red line. As you can see on the chart on the lower right, I have a range here. And if price breaks this point of the red line, we may explore the other side of the range, and at that point I don't want to be involved in this long anymore.

Edited September 22, 2010 by forrestang

[forrestang 10]

------UPDATE(2:28CST)-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'm out of the trade now. I closed the first 2/3s at the points shown. I"m ok with those exits as I wasn't too far off from top tic of this initial move. That final 1/3 was kinda a sacrifice as I was playing for possible resumption off of support.

 

At this point I expect some move down, but I don't have a solid entry yet. There was a short at the highs, but it was tricky. I may re-enter in a bit, but we'll just have to wait and see.

 

 

------UPDATE(2:34CST)-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Stalking a possible long at the moment. Would like to see move towards 3284s maybe to make me feel better about the long. Shorts are a possibility also... but right now the trend is obviously up.

Edited September 22, 2010 by forrestang

[SIUYA 11]

nice postings Forrestang.....makes for good reading of the on going thought process and shows its pretty simple straightforward repeatable stuff......

 

Which has got me thinking, always a dangerous thing!

so as food for thought.....

 

Do others sometimes look at certain styles/methods/habits and think....

its too easy, I must be able to improve on this and make it more complicated, or do things differently to others (the search for the holy grail????)

or at least think .....

if its this easy then I should be able to capture more out of the trade and pick all the little moves, if I am selling out a long, why not short it? (overtrading, and not sticking to a simple plan and setups???)

 

I ask as often my mind wanders into the second thought process for me, until I snap out of it and walk away.

[forrestang 10]

Just to note, the ultimate goal would be to get up to about 1.3383, but that is a waaaays off. So we'll continue to watch.

 

------UPDATE(2:34CST)-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Stalking a possible long at the moment. Would like to see move towards 3284s maybe to make me feel better about the long. Shorts are a possibility also... but right now the trend is obviously up.

Well. Price did come down to a nice area, and I was stalking the long, but I never got any pa that I wanted to see to get in.

 

So far price has moved up within 4 tics of that range top of 3383 we were watching. It was some nice momentum on that move up... unfortunately I wasn't in it.

 

[thalestrader 14]

Chart ...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[ziebarf 10]

Chart ...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Maybe a 1-2-3? Doesn't really scream anything at me..

[snowbird 10]

Maybe a 1-2-3? Doesn't really scream anything at me..

 

1-2-3 could go either way, with profit potential on both sides of the trade

 

if it breaks up, only one more resistance level then on to new highs

 

if it breaks down... a nice vacuum below as well.

 

trend is still up.. I'd wait and trade a break either way, but if forced to pick a position before the break I would go short,,,, absolutely no other reason other than the chart looks heavy.... almost like it's about to tip over.

 

snowbird

[forrestang 10]

Stalking an EU short at the moment. Given the trend is still UP, if I get a trade I like it will be short term initially. If I don't get it, I will see what develops at the range low.

 

 

 

-----UPDATE(1:18)----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The short is blown, it rolled w/out me. And I'd be BE at this point on it anyway. But that 3383 level we spoke of yesterday may come into play at the range lows combined with some other confluences. So we'll continue to watch.

Edited September 23, 2010 by forrestang

[thalestrader 14]

Euro is UP ...

 

 

Euro is still up ...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Technicals Vs. Fundamentals

 

I am primarily a technical trader. When I swing trade stocks, I do happen to focus primarily on the stocks of companies that rate highly with respect to sales growth, earnings growth, and return on equity. After all, it is these stocks which tend to attract institutional interest, and like it or not, institutions, not individuals, have the buying power to drive demand over supply and thus power price higher. In other words, "momentum stocks" tend to be those which either have or are perceived to have good fundamentals or the prospect of soon to be rapidly improving fundamentals. So, while I am primarily a technical trader, I respect fundamentals as well.

 

I say this to preface the following comment: I just read Winner Take All by William Gallacher. What a piece of garbage this book is. Gallacher professes to be a "top trader." May be he is, maybe he isn't. I do not really care. Gallacher eschews technical and relies entirely on fundamentals. No problem. I have no doubt that it can be done, and I am always all ears to hear how someone gathers information which enables him or her to profit.

 

However, here is the problem with Gallacher's book - he emphatically ridicules all manner of technical trading and analysis. He claims to point out the "glaring inconsistencies" in such analysis. But he himself has obviously never taken the time to learn that which he wishes to refute.

 

One thing I learned back in graduate school was this - if you wish to persuade another that his position is wrong, you must know his position better than he himself does. Gallacher does not have a clue when it comes to technical analysis. It is therefore no wonder that he finds it useless. The most offensive part of his refutation of technical analysis concerns his critique of John Murphy's use of trend lines.

 

Gallacher purports to "show" how Murphy's trend line analysis was wrong by redrawing Murphy's trend lines. Murphy drew his trend lines across price peaks in such a manner that the trend line does not cross through any price bars until price itself breaks above the trendline. Gallacher redraws what he calls (get this) the "real trend lines." Gallacher says the "real trend line" shows a false break. Well, Gallacher's trend line cuts through two, perhaps three price bars. This is the novices error. I see it here at TL and every other trading forum I have ever visited. I see it in Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine, I see it in books and internet articles and so on.

 

My point is this: Trend lines are useless if drawn incorrectly. You must draw them according to your chart, and not according to what you would like to see. Review Trader Vic on how to draw trend lines so as to avoid imposing your wil and whim on your analysis. And do not spend money on Gallacher's book. If you feel compelled to read it, get it from your library. If your library does not have it, get it through interlibrary loan. Spend the $25 on something that you won't have to regret having purchased.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

Technicals Vs. Fundamentals

......And do not spend money on Gallacher's book. If you feel compelled to read it, get it from your library. If your library does not have it, get it through interlibrary loan. Spend the $25 on something that you won't have to regret having purchased.

 

Thales,

Since you brought up a book, what are your thoughts on this book? It is called "Trading From Your Gut," written by Curtis Faith.

 

The basic idea behind the book is the different ways your 'right' brain interprets and makes trading decisions differently than your 'left' brain does. In that the 'left' brain is the more analytic side, needing the exact reasoning and details for doing something. The 'right' is more the intuitive side, that is more adept to making quick decisions based on the wealth of knowledge your brain has collected over time.

 

Most of the book is background, and the logic behind of it. Little of it has to do with actual trading. He does give some exercises how to train your brain to access that stored information we all have to make better trading decisions.

 

Anyways, I thought it was a good read, and something that is easily read in a day. This may be the reason why some people trade or make decisions w/o being able to tell another person exactly why they did certain trades. Even before somewhere in this thread I asked you has this thread made you a better trader, and you mentioned that it has helped you crystallize the things you do by having to try and explain WHY you did certain things.

Curtis Faith - Trading from your Gut.pdf

[thalestrader 14]

...Since you brought up a book, what are your thoughts on this book? It is called "Trading From Your Gut," written by Curtis Faith..

 

I am an old Trading Blox customer from the Curtis Faith days, and I've learned a great deal from Curtis. I have not read this book however.

 

Given your description, I would defer to Kiwi (if he has read it), as he is also an old familiar with respect to Curtis, and Kiwi has a much greater affinity for taking a more contemporary view of psychology than I. When it comes to ψυχή, I begin with Plato and follow through to Heidegger and end with Aristotle.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Kiwi 16]

I enjoyed his first book but have yet to read this one. I will rectify that.

 

Thales, something I'm reading currently might both appeal to your enjoyment of ancient philosophers and stimulate your mind:

The Search for Meaning: A Short History; Dennis Ford; University of California Press; 2007.

 

I am thoroughly enjoying it and bizarrely it has re-stimulated my interest in trading HSI (figure that out).

[SIUYA 11]

Re the Curtis Faith book.....

I think to better understand where he is coming from for the book, it helps to understand his history. It is not as Forrsetang says a trading book, but more about his beliefs of the role and importance of intuition (for those with sufficient experience) in mechanical trading.

(I too am a trading blox, Curtis Faith supporter and trend follower and yet have always struggled with the idea of pure mechanical trading so it resonated with me)

 

My two cents is that the book is not worth the read as a trading book, but more as an extra to pass the time, and confirm possibly what you may already be thinking.

In short its not a book I refer back to a a continual basis - and this to me is the sign of a good and educational read (wait until its a $2 paper back).

On that note you are better off reading other more interesting things.....my recommendation which surprised me for its application I found to the mind and trading was Dan Gilbert - Stumbling on happiness.

[BlowFish 10]

Interesting that a guy who owes his success to quickly learning to be mechanically disciplined is talking about trading from his gut. Another book for the kindle, still haven't got round to the Turtle one yet.

[SIUYA 11]

he actually states in the book that a lot of his early success was actually due to his correct intuition at the time - that intuition at the time told him to follow the rules as he was given them.

[BlowFish 10]

he actually states in the book that a lot of his early success was actually due to his correct intuition at the time - that intuition at the time told him to follow the rules as he was given them.

 

Hmm OK so intuitively he knew to be completely methodical a bit of a stretch. Or perhaps he intuitively new the rules made sense? One of these days I'll get round to reading both his books.

[SIUYA 11]

Hmm OK so intuitively he knew to be completely methodical a bit of a stretch. Or perhaps he intuitively new the rules made sense? One of these days I'll get round to reading both his books.

 

Not a stretch at all. He knew he was given a set of rules by some successful traders and that he was smart enough/intuitive enough to know that it was in his own best interests to follow those rules. A direct quote....

"My intuition told me that the most important factors would be how well we displayed the spirit of our training, took advantage of the opportunities that arose, managed our risks and handled the trading on an emotional level. Most of the the other Turtles thought our goal was to make as much money as possible"....

"My instincts told me otherwise. If a trade came that met our criteria, I took it, no matter how risky it seemed. I was concerned with performing well on my own terms, not making money per se. My intuition paid off"