Reading Charts in Real Time

[thalestrader 14]

Ok folks,

 

Here is the daily chart of HTHT, a stock on my Buy Watch list.

 

What do you think of this breakout?

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Don't forget to join the Intelligent Plan Game at Marketwatch's Virtual Stock Exchange:

 

http://vse.marketwatch.com/Game/StartViewGame.aspx?id=SpeculatorKing

[snowbird 10]

I'll take a stab.

 

Personally I think the cup is quite deep/steep, breakout from the handle came straight out of an a/b/c retracement, and volume in the handle was actually much higher than average.

 

In comparison... if one were to analyze the breakout that occurred on this very same stock back in late July, there are three note-able differences:

 

1. Longer basing time in both cup and handle

2. A strong 1-2-3 pattern that formed in the handle prior to the breakout

3. Volume contracting in the handle and expanding into the breakout.

 

On the other hand, even the formation back in late July was not perfect, as it appears O'Neils rules of thumb regarding the handle not retracing more than 1/3 of the cup depth were not met.

 

just my 2 cents

 

snowbird

[thalestrader 14]

I'll take a stab...

 

All very good observations, snowbird. For me, my main point of hesitation is that while volume on the prior breakout was much higher than average, volume on this breakout was well below average, and volume continued to decline as price has worked higher.

 

 

I have overlooked many "imperfections" in a chart patterns (i.e. bases) over the years. The one thing I do want to see, however, is for volume to swell when price drives through resistance.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Current view of the EURJPY show price rallied back to test the most recent breakdown point at 109.00 as resistance and is now falling again. Price may break last week's low and fall to new lows, price might now test last week's low as support and reverse, or price may already be in the process of reversing, and this drop from the prior breakdown point is the "3" of a "123" long opportunity ...

 

 

Current view of the EURJPY shows price working its way lower, but all possibilities are still open ...

 

Current view of EURJPY ... price still within a nearly three week old trading range and all possibilities, bull and bear, are still open. My daughter is still short from 112.00 and 109.00, with stop and reverse at 109.75 ...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

Stalking E/U.

 

We're at possible Support now. So either we spring the bottom of the range and I look to get long, or if we break clear out to the downside, I will look to sell a pb.

 

Edited September 7, 2010 by forrestang

[forrestang 10]

Stalking E/U.

 

We're at possible Support now. So either we spring the bottom of the range and I look to get long, or if we break clear out to the downside, I will look to sell a pb.

 

 

Rather unispiring movement in the initial London Session, nothing set up for me, time to take a nap before ES open. We'll see what tomorrow's London brings.

[thalestrader 14]

Current view of EURJPY ... price still within a nearly three week old trading range and all possibilities, bull and bear, are still open. My daughter is still short from 112.00 and 109.00, with stop and reverse at 109.75 ...

 

Current view of EURJPY ... the short is working and lookng better, but both bull and bear scenarios still alive ...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Current view of EURJPY ... the short is working and looking better, but both bull and bear scenarios still alive ...

 

... waiting for Godot ...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[fxThunder 10]

I have been rereading this thread and rediscovered many gems within. I just find the reading process very cumbersome.

 

I would like to make a copy of this thread (charts and all) and read it on my notebook at my leisure.

 

Is there anybody that knows how I will be able to do this?

 

Thanks!

fxT

[forrestang 10]

I have been rereading this thread and rediscovered many gems within. I just find the reading process very cumbersome.

 

I would like to make a copy of this thread (charts and all) and read it on my notebook at my leisure.

 

Is there anybody that knows how I will be able to do this?

 

Thanks!

fxT

I've been re-reading the thread to for the past few days. Some good things in here for sure. It's a lot to sift through though.

 

U could try to save the thread to your computer. I don't know if you can do it one at a time, but you can do it page by page at least.

[daedalus 10]

I've been re-reading the thread to for the past few days. Some good things in here for sure. It's a lot to sift through though.

 

U could try to save the thread to your computer. I don't know if you can do it one at a time, but you can do it page by page at least.

 

Yea I've been re-reading my own posts within this thread... I had forgotten just how damn smart I really am sometimes....

 

But seriously... this thread has so much good info in it. Truly epic when you think how abysmal most trading forum threads end up.

[SIUYA 11]

treat it like any study subject.....

there is no substitute for making notes and summaries in your own words.

Use cut and paste for any relevant charts.

[SIUYA 11]

I dont know where to post this, and I figured this is as good a place as any given the folks who read this thread and the nature of the thread.

A friend of mine writes a blog which can be found at Trading diary of a late riser

He has been trading for over twenty years, and while he has had the normal ups and downs I am pretty confident he has been profitable for about 19 of those years. At a guess he aims to return 50% plus on his money by being nimble, using a little bit of leverage, but most importantly using a lot of low risk entries.

He focuses on day and swing trading Australian equities and gives a good blow by blow of what he thinks through out the day on various stocks and is pretty much real time in that he posts his actual thoughts ideas and many prices.

For stock traders I think its a good spread of thoughts and maybe if you are trading Aussie stocks you might make some good money from it as I know he makes a good living from only trading.

He does not sell anything, does not care to and probably will not respond to any questions but it makes for an interesting read into the insight of a experienced trader for anyone interested.

[snowbird 10]

...... I adjust the range size depending upon current volatility in general, and the volatility of the session in particular.

 

Thales

 

As I was re-reading the thread... this struck me a a gem that could bear more discussion.

 

Atilla (the race) mentioned that his trading went south basically as the market volatility "changed in the summer months.

 

You yourself started out the race with a completely new system which adjusted stops and targets with the "volatility" of the market.

 

Even the targets and stops you set in this reading charts in real time thread have some inherent basis in volatility since you are targeting support and resistance levels set by the market, and these change within the session, day-day and month to month. At one point you even mention that you "wait" for the market to begin swinging before looking for trading opportunites.

 

So... what keys should one look for on a daily/session basis to evaluate volatility and adjust accordingly.... a simple ATR?, daily or session range averages, low/high volume based adjustments, visual adjustments to where session noise is eliminated and swings and S/R levels become more prominent.

 

Simpler the better.. just seems like this is appears to be an important key in constantly changing markets.

 

snowbird

[thalestrader 14]

...So... what keys should one look for on a daily/session basis to evaluate volatility and adjust accordingly.... a simple ATR?...

 

Yes. For a long time I kept tabs on a 10 period daily ATR. Now I just "see" or "sense" these changes, but I would bet that what I "see" and what a 10 day ATR "shows" is basically the same thing.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

current view of the EURUSD ... low - high - higher low - higher high ...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

EUR coming on strong against the Yen as well ...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

EUR coming on strong against the Yen as well ...

 

 

Still strong ...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

EUR coming on strong against the Yen as well ...

 

 

Euro is UP ...

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Kiwi 16]

Interesting look on EJ H4 at present. To me it looks like a rollover so I'd be thinking about a short if it breaks (rules would need to be applied to said break).

 

Note that in my charts for D and H4 I have both Globex (=Athens) close based charts and London midnight based charts. London charts have the green countdown clocks on them and are to the left of Globex. This follows the observation that GU in particular gave clearer PA signals when you set your clock for London midnight than when you set it to Globex (futures) based midnight. I take signals off either if they are clear.

 

On Globex H4 you can clearly see loss of momentum and parabolic underside to the last 4 bars. On London H4 the same time period shows as a high, indecision with lower close, equal high. Funny how much difference a 2 hour shift in midnight makes.

 

 

.

[Kiwi 16]

Here's the M15 view. TraderVic wants a trendline break (2 here) before his 123.

 

 

.

[thalestrader 14]

Here's the M15 view. TraderVic wants a trendline break (2 here) before his 123..

 

Hi Kiwi,

 

I wonder whether or not Vic would view the trend line break you noted here as significant enough for him in terms of looking for a 123.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Kiwi 16]

I don't know actually. I took the trade on a pullback after a 2 pt break then went out and an hour later, noting it hadn't moved and I didn't have time to manage it pulled the stop up behind M1 retests then got taken out for 3 points. What I found really interesting was that it failed trying to make my normal short trigger (not that I would have normally shorted such a strong move up but got curious).

 

The thing that made me put trendlines on was realizing that TraderV included trendlines. I seem to recall he worked back from right to left so he might have put his under the two I touched; or one of them and the one I skipped over in the up move.

 

That's part of the reason I prefer channels to trendlines: the other side defines what the "real" slope of the market is during this move. Then for a change of trend I look for consolidation below the high and reversal ... a channel based 123. I wonder if one of those occurred. Just checked and you can draw and internal channel that makes it work.

 

The key thing was "breaks a trend (line/channel), forms the lower high, breaks the pattern". But in this case it simply failed to progress at the wider channel.

 

 

Actually: on thinking about it the key thing is probably not what I suggested. The key thing is to trawl around in the possible setups, find ones that appeal to you, then test them thoroughly with stops, targets, and exit rules to find ones that could work for YOU. Then to try it in real life to see what you missed.

 

.

Edited September 18, 2010 by Kiwi
wrong picture :(

[forrestang 10]

Yea I've been re-reading my own posts within this thread... I had forgotten just how damn smart I really am sometimes....

 

But seriously... this thread has so much good info in it. Truly epic when you think how abysmal most trading forum threads end up.

 

Yeah, I was reading some of my earlier posts on NQ and the analysis of how to trade the ranges the day before.... and it was something a trading savant would have posted.... where that guy is I don't know?

[thalestrader 14]

... it was something a trading savant would have posted.... where that guy is I don't know...

 

The benefits from actually putting your plan on paper (or in an internet forum post) is not to be underestimated.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales