Reading Charts in Real Time

[Cory2679 11]

Pulled the long...

 

I knew I'd regret that. haha

[Cory2679 11]

Since I'm trading with Oanda, I think I'd better stick to the sidelines and just watch the spread during the 8:30 AM EDT Housing Starts news (not that I'd be in now, anyway, I'm just saying...).

 

Also, I'm sort of waiting for price to dry up and go sideways leading up to the FOMC announcement later this afternoon. I know with Oanda, there's no way I can have a position on around that announcement.

 

Today will be interesting...

[thalestrader 14]

... My long bias was too dominant....

 

I was fairly confident in my "long bias" on the 6J yesterday, and as I was turning in last night I saw price clear resistance at 11096, so I thought by morning I'd see the second third at PT2. But what happens, I thought, if price reverses soon after I go to bed and falls back below that resistance level? Well, I'd want to have my stop loss there, because that would be a sign that my long was not going to travel for 100's of more ticks to the upside. And then, thinking of your post above, I thought, well, then perhaps I should want to be short if that were to happen. After all, I can always get long again.

 

As you can see, I woke this morning to find that I had indeed stopped and reversed overnight, and now I am sitting on a decent short profit with a stop loss at nearly 1.5+R. While I'm sure I would have tightened my stop loss and been out of my longs this morning, I have to credit your post last night for bumping my thoughts a bit farther along and getting me into that short. Nice share, MidK!

 

Here is how the trade looks in the Ninja demo - short at 11094, current stop loss is +46 ticks at 11048, and my all out profit target is 10967. Again, not real time, but still obviously an ongoing position. And since it is in the Ninjademo, it shows that it was at least possible to have taken the trade - I also think a cursory look at the chart will show why a sell stop at that level, once that level had cleared, would be logical place to look for the short entry. I used an initial 30 tick stop tied to the entry order.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

Looking at this potential EUR/USD short...

 

BTW, as expected, Oanda spreads went crazy around the 8:30 news...

[DugDug 10]

Now that you are out of 6J, I have been stalking a similar long trade on it.

I was looking for support in the 1HR chart, narrowed down to the 1 min, and waited for a swing break. I figure I am going early and there could possibly be a pullback to get long again, but with close stop, now at BE....let it ride.

Looking for a possible TP at 11.075 - The 50% retracement of the recent fall last night on the hourly chart.

[Cory2679 11]

After that break of resistance, I'd probably consider a long like this...

[DugDug 10]

6J M0 - hit profit target and out.

NOTE: While I dont post trades often I think this is the first winning trade I have posted (thankfully not the only winning trade I have had).

Its sad the satisfaction that actually gives me.

 

One best point, was that I waited and waited for the one min chart to break..... after it had entered support on the hourly..... did not go early, did not try and fade it, did not try and short it late in the recent pullback only to be whipsawed out..... just waited.

[Cory2679 11]

After that break of resistance, I'd probably consider a long like this...

 

Not often I get to say this lately...PT hit!! That puts me back in the black for the week...

 

Price shot off like a rocket ship! I had intentionally walked away from the screen so I wouldn't screw the trade up...came back to what you see in my attached image!

 

Perhaps I've exited prematurely...I bet there's more room to the upside after a spike like that. However, like I said, I had walked away and when I came back my PT limit order had been filled.

 

I was expecting price to dry up anytime now...I certainly didn't see that coming!

 

I'll be playing the rest of the day pretty cautious...it's an hour until the London close...3 hours and 15 minutes until the FOMC announcement...

 

On big news days like this...with my lack of experience...I sort of feel like I'd rather be out wishing I was in, than in wishing I was out.

 

-Cory

[Cory2679 11]

...I bet there's more room to the upside after a spike like that.

 

Although, if I were still long, I would be cautious...we're approaching resistance (see the 4hr chart)...including yesterday's high.

 

BTW, I have to say, when I came back to the screen and saw that spike, I was worried there was some unexpected news and the Oanda spread spike would have stopped me out for a loss! Thankfully, that wasn't the case.

 

I'm using both the Econoday and DailyFX calendars to track news...when the news is "high importance" or "market moving," I'll just stick to the sidelines to avoid the spread spike. Hopefully that will be sufficient in keeping me from getting unnecessarily stopped out with Oanda.

Edited March 16, 2010 by Cory2679
typo

[Cory2679 11]

This would probably be a worthy attempt at a short...

 

I sort of expect price to retest the recent low before continuing upward...

[Marko23 10]

6J M0 - hit profit target and out.

NOTE: While I dont post trades often I think this is the first winning trade I have posted (thankfully not the only winning trade I have had).

Its sad the satisfaction that actually gives me.

 

One best point, was that I waited and waited for the one min chart to break..... after it had entered support on the hourly..... did not go early, did not try and fade it, did not try and short it late in the recent pullback only to be whipsawed out..... just waited.

 

Congratulations with 20 characters

[Cory2679 11]

This would probably be a worthy attempt at a short...

 

With only a little over an hour until the FOMC announcement, I decided to cancel my short.

 

I initially thought that I could possibly be in and out before FOMC, but I believe that is no longer the case.

 

I'm done trading for the day, but I'm going to stick around until 2:30PM ET just to watch.

 

-Cory

[Cory2679 11]

I'm looking at a short like this...

[Cory2679 11]

I don't think I've ever seen such a tight range while a major market is open, especially during the AM hours! I wonder what the deal is...I'm a little scared! :o

[MCM 10]

Good afternoon.

 

I realize I trade in a somewhat different fashion from many of you - I am a fib traders along with supply/demand confluence. Also like to trade the pure patterns at times - 30 year bond setting up a nice classic Gartley 222 pattern.

 

Ratios AB/CD are holding - as was the expected move (162 of BC is end of CD leg). Initial pullback was at the 618. 30 year contract : 610 tick chart.

 

Coming into supply as well. Limited risk. (stops above recent high at 117 24/32).

[MidKnight 12]

Incredibly strong rejection from the pivotal minor S/R to put in a very large rally pretty much all of Europe and the USA session and take out the previous pullback highs. The limits of the up move have occurred within the refined zone within upper R just prior to exhaust low. The major trend is still down, but just barely. The immediate trend continues to be up. Be very alert for possible support coming in at the 2 previous pullback highs.

 

Attention Points

1.5350/450 significant 240m pivot low

1.5240/80 refined zone within upper R just prior to exhaust low

++ 1.5238 ----------------

1.5160/200 pullback highs S

1.4980/5020 pivotal minor S

 

Aggressive longs in the pullback highs S area but will scale out the first 1/2 rather quickly, 1/4 before taking out PDH, 1/4 before 1.5300, then trail the other half targeting the significant 240m pivot low.

 

The refined zone within upper R just prior to exhaust low is still being resolved so I need to be mindful for shorts up here and not be too long biased like I was on Monday. However, if the market drops to test the pullback highs S and then rallies back into this refined zone within upper R just prior to exhaust low and shows signs of failing then I would be very keen to short. Target 1/4 out before 1.5200, 1/4 before 1.5140, 1/4 before 1.5080 and trail the last 1/4 for a move into the 1.4950 area.

 

Alternatively, the market may just drop hard below the pullback high S. Should that happen then I will be looking to sell a flip as it tests that area from below. 1/4 off before 1.5080, 1/4 before 1.5020, 1/4 off before 1.4950 and trail the rest for a possible test of the bottom S area below 1.4900.

[MidKnight 12]

...As you can see, I woke this morning to find that I had indeed stopped and reversed overnight, and now I am sitting on a decent short profit with a stop loss at nearly 1.5+R. ....

 

Nice one! I really really struggle with the stop and reverse style although logically it makes perfect sense, I so far am unable to switch gears that fast. Great result though. If I could be wrong like this, being wrong wouldn't be so bad at all

 

With kind regards,

MK

[Cory2679 11]

I'm looking at a short like this...

 

I still currently have this order in, but I'm wondering if I should stick to the sidelines this evening...

 

I see this on DailyFX.com (EDIT: the times are eastern daylight time...GMT - 4)...

 

 

I'm worried this news announcement will cause the Oanda spreads to spike, however it's the JPY so I don't know if it applies to the EUR/USD.

 

Also, as you can see, it doesn't give a time!! I looked it up and found that the report comes out "between" 2-4 GMT.

 

Can anyone shed some light on this? Should I pull my order with Oanda? I'm not sure what to do...I guess the smart thing to do would be to play it safe and pull the order...better safe than sorry...?

 

I guess, for now, I'm going to go ahead and pull the order and simply observe the rest of the evening...

Edited March 17, 2010 by Cory2679
"edit"

[MidKnight 12]

Can anyone shed some light on this? Should I pull my order with Oanda?

 

I dunno if you should pull it or not (I'm not gonna take the heat if I'm wrong ). I only know that I wouldn't worry about it unless I was trading JPY related pairs. Just me though....

 

With kind regards,

MK

[Cory2679 11]

What a sleepy evening...price never even broke the range defined by my red line (SL) and blue line (entry)...

 

I'm tempted to just leave the order in and go to bed, but it's a little risky for me...I don't mind leaving a trade on that I'm already in as much, but I'm more hesitant to leave an order like this. (EDIT: Because anything could happen, and my trade could get triggered after it really wasn't a "valid trade" anymore...)

 

Another tempting overnight move would be to short the high illustrated on my 4hr chart...

 

I may wake up to shouldawouldacouldas, but I think I'm just going to call it a night and see where we are in the morning.

 

-Cory

Edited March 17, 2010 by Cory2679
"edit"

[Marko23 10]

Hi folks,

 

just to let you know: Thales is perfectly right when he insists on reading the DOM.

It took me several days, but suddenly my sight improved dramatically.

 

Yes it is possible to sell into movements, which are beginning to fall,

and to buy into movements, which are beginning to rise.

You can swing with the market on the DOM, I couldn't believe that....

 

It's only training, training and training.

 

Thanks Thales,

Marko

 

P.S. Absence from chats, forums etc. helped me.

Edited March 17, 2010 by Marko23

[Cory2679 11]

Looking at a short like this...

[Cory2679 11]

Looking at a short like this...

 

Currently short the EUR/USD...I've adjusted my PT a little and labeled some significant areas of support to keep in mind.

 

More or less, I'm planning to give this trade some room and take breaks from the screen...since it's such a large swing, I don't think it really requires micro-managing.

 

-Cory

[Cory2679 11]

Currently short the EUR/USD...

 

I went ahead and cut my risk down to size...

[Cory2679 11]

Stop now at BE.

 

From here, if I'm not stopped out at BE, I will continue to trail my stop along natural stops of like swing degree, getting more aggressive the closer I get to my PT.