Reading Charts in Real Time

[Cory2679 11]

...this is NFP week...

 

When NFP is released, do you make sure you are out of the market, try to be in a position to ride a potentially big move (if there's reason to be in, of course), or somewhere in between?

 

I know it can be dangerous due to the potentially crazy volatility and widened spreads in spot...

 

Thanks,

 

Cory

[fxThunder 10]

EJ short entry triggered...

 

I am going to hold this EJ short with a small stop still - hoping to get it to breakeven soon. Reason for trying to hold this into the Asian session is that I managed to grab a short entry at the high end of the current 60min range and there may be a bit more downside with risk already reduced significantly.

 

Cheers,

fxT

 

EDIT:

 

Closed the trade at breakeven. Not enough room developed between my entry and price to feel comfortable holding it overnight.

Edited March 3, 2010 by fxThunder

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

I just received an email from FXCM that micro spreads will be increasing on March 21 to the spreads used on the standard accounts. So for those of you who had been enjoying relatively fair pricing by using micor, it is time to look for a new bucket shop. MidK seems pleased with Interactivebrokers, though new traders learning to trade with very limited anounts of capital may be hamoered by IB's margin requirements.

 

If you have at least a few thousand in risk capital, it might be a good time to consider moving to futures - the 6E, which tracks the EURUSD, trades at 12.50/tick, and the 6B, which tracks the GBPUSD, trades at 6.25 tick.

 

Anyone else who would care to share suggestions should speak up here for the benefit of the others.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[MightyMouse 12]

Hi Folks,

 

I just received an email from FXCM that micro spreads will be increasing on March 21 to the spreads used on the standard accounts. So for those of you who had been enjoying relatively fair pricing by using micor, it is time to look for a new bucket shop. MidK seems pleased with Interactivebrokers, though new traders learning to trade with very limited anounts of capital may be hamoered by IB's margin requirements.

 

If you have at least a few thousand in risk capital, it might be a good time to consider moving to futures - the 6E, which tracks the EURUSD, trades at 12.50/tick, and the 6B, which tracks the GBPUSD, trades at 6.25 tick.

 

Anyone else who would care to share suggestions should speak up here for the benefit of the others.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

 

I am currently trading only futures, but I had an account with IBFX and they were ok. Personally, I do not like the fact that the charts only show bid prices, but if you are already used to metatrader then it won't be a big deal for you.

[MidKnight 12]

A good solid up day into the immediate R. Anticipating some correction to the downside in this R area. Should that not occur, it would be a surprise and strong reinforcement for the capitulation theory I have been playing the last couple days. The main immediate S is down in the 1.4850/900 area, but there is also what I would consider to be little less significant immediate S in the 1.4960/510 area and then even more minor immediate S in the 1.5030/70 area.

 

Longs in the 1.5030/70 area and will scale fairly aggressively aiming to be out of 1/2 before making a new high. Longs in the middle of this range, the 1.4960/510 area will be out of 1/2 before 1.5060 trades and out 1/4 before 1.5120 trades trailing the last 1/4 into the 1.5200 area. Longs down near the bottom of the range in the 1.4850/900 area will be out of 1/2 before 1.4980 trades and trailing the rest as per the 60m chart for a test of the upper range (about where we are now). I don't think we'll see this last long scenario today as that would be a pretty sizable drop, but anything can happen.

 

I do feel compelled to be alert for short opportunity above PDH. I'll scale out 1/2 before 1.5070 trades, another 1/4 before 1.5020 trades and probably cover the rest in the 1.4980/5020 area as I am still playing out the capitulation theory.

[MidKnight 12]

I am currently trading only futures, but I had an account with IBFX and they were ok. Personally, I do not like the fact that the charts only show bid prices, but if you are already used to metatrader then it won't be a big deal for you.

 

Hi MM,

 

I don't know what you mean here. Any decent platform I have used lets you plot FX in various ways from bid, ask, or midpoint. This is not some restriction from IB.

 

With kind regards,

MK

[Cory2679 11]

...micro spreads will be increasing on March 21 to the spreads used on the standard accounts....

 

I love the positive spin they tried to put on it..."No Dealing Desk Micro Execution is Coming"

 

If you have at least a few thousand in risk capital, it might be a good time to consider moving to futures - the 6E, which tracks the EURUSD, trades at 12.50/tick, and the 6B, which tracks the GBPUSD, trades at 6.25 tick.

 

I'm trading a $5k demo account right now (and am planning on moving to a $5k real account reasonably soon), and I just went through all my trades so far this week...

 

My average trade size: 42,091

 

My smallest trade: 26,000

 

My largest trade: 61,000

 

So even trading 5k, futures are not practical for me at this point...1 6E contract is 125,000 and 1 6B is 62,500...so even the 6B is impractical...keep in mind I usually split up my trades by PT's, so it's even that much more impractical.

 

From FXCM's website:

 

How Will The New Spreads Affect Me?

Typical EUR/USD Micro Spread = 1.3 pips

Typical EUR/USD Standard Spread = 2.3 pips

 

That's a difference of 1 pip or $0.10. On average, that means your transaction cost (per lot) to trade the EUR/USD is only ten cents more than you're used to.

 

That really doesn't seem like that big of a difference...1 pip...is it really worth moving to another broker? I'd really like to stick with FXCM...I haven't had any complaints...I'm especially impressed with the consistency of the spreads...even through news...Oanda will spike their spreads up to 10-15+ pips sometimes!! FXCM doesn't do anything like that. Plus, I've gotten virtually no slippage...including with my real account.

 

Thales...your daughter probably doesn't need to move...

 

From FXCM's website:

 

SPECIAL OFFER

FXCM would like to extend a one-time offer to all Micro accounts opened prior to March 2. If your account balance is $10,000 or greater at the close of trading on March 18, we will automatically provide you with a 1 pip reduction from FXCM's Standard spreads.

Edited March 4, 2010 by Cory2679

[thalestrader 14]

Thales...your daughter probably doesn't need to move...

 

I didn't see that about the pip reduction, so she'll be fine. I do have a little futures account set up for her. School is out in 3 1/2 months, so I guess we'll wait and see whether she wants to make the move to futures this summer, or if she is going to stay with spot. My currency trading friend is done with them, though. He's been moving most of his volume on futures anyway, and was using FXCM for Yen pair trades. I just spoke with him and he says that if he does Yen-pair trades he'll just do them in his IB account.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[MidKnight 12]

That really doesn't seem like that big of a difference...1 pip...is it really worth moving to another broker? I'd really like to stick with FXCM...I haven't had any complaints...I'm especially impressed with the consistency of the spreads...even through news...Oanda will spike their spreads up to 10-15+ pips sometimes!! FXCM doesn't do anything like that. Plus, I've gotten virtually no slippage...including with my real account.

 

Hi-ho Cory,

 

1 pip difference maybe doesn't make a lot of difference but I do always like to have extra pips in my account rather than the brokers. With IBFX you will have the Euro fairly consistently at a 0.5 pip spread. Pretty darn good I think. Yes, Oanda will widen spreads at news time, but it is a tiny fraction of the trading day. Outside of news their Euro spread is 0.9 pips - again, pretty darn good I think. The real benefit of Oanda though is for small accounts as your position size is totally and completely flexible. You can actually do the X% risk without needing to round or whatever. I like Oanda as a test bed, but use IBFX for the real deal.

 

:bag_of_salt:

 

MK :yes sir:

[thalestrader 14]

....1 pip difference maybe doesn't make a lot of difference...

 

With bucket shops it makes all the difference, especially when you are trying to cut a bad trade loose or you want to really ratchet the trailing stop in close to the market - The spread is the spread, and you will pay the spread on every trade, no matter what the marketing materials say. This isn't like Globex where I often find I have bought the low tick or sold short the high tick of a swing because at each price there must be one at least seller selling and at least one buyer buying. We are talking Bucket Shop world, and in Bucket Shop world the only one who sells the top tick is the market maker, and the only one who buys the low tick is the market maker. In Bucket Shop world, it is always a cusotmer who has sold short the low tick and it is always a cusotmer who has bought the high tick. In fact, there are usually hundreds of customers who actually sold short below the low tick as recorded by your market maker, and there are likewise hundreds of new longs that were filled at prices above the high recorded on their charts. Now those "fills" will be that much more above or below reality.

 

Also, for what its worth, I'd never give a bucket shop more than a few hundred dollars. If you want a 5K account at a Bucket Shop, you need to take it from them, not give it to them. If you have 5K, trade one lots of futures to build the account.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

With bucket shops it makes all the difference...

 

Would you consider Interactive Brokers FX a "bucket shop?" It's an ECN.

 

When I posted an article about why fx futures are far superior to retail FX, Kiwi made this post:

 

Thats now a 3 year old document Cory.

 

If you use something like Interactive Brokers ECN Forex most of the arguments are void and forex can work better for you than futures especially outside of US RTH.

[Cory2679 11]

With IBFX you will have the Euro fairly consistently at a 0.5 pip spread. Pretty darn good I think.

 

Yeah, but with an account <$25,000, they apparently charge a separate commission of 1 tick, so the spread for my intents and purposes would be more like 1.5 ticks...which isn't bad...that's pretty close to what FXCM micro is now.

 

(With a $25,000+ account, the commission is drastically reduced...anywhere from 0.1-0.2 ticks, depending on the size of the account. I simply don't have that much, though.)

Edited March 4, 2010 by Cory2679

[DugDug 10]

FESX (expected to practically track SP500 at this time of the day) - will rapidly move stop down as there is a medium term uptrend in

place.

 

[MightyMouse 12]

I took AD (6a) long at 8980. stop is max 8940 target is 9071. Trying to post a trade without it turning into a loser.

[Dinerotrader 10]

Oil

 

Slow time on oil but here's a break that would interest me if I was still trading today.

 

[thalestrader 14]

I took AD (6a) long at 8980. stop is max 8940 target is 9071. Trying to post a trade without it turning into a loser.

 

May I ask how you determine your stop loss?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[fxThunder 10]

Stalking a long on GU.

 

cheers,

fxT

[Dinerotrader 10]

Oil

 

Slow time on oil but here's a break that would interest me if I was still trading today.

 

 

Target hit for about 40 ticks. Not bad. We just keep having these sell offs most days lately on oil.

 

[fxThunder 10]

Stalking a long on GU.

 

cheers,

fxT

 

Cancelled the stalk.

[MidKnight 12]

Yeah, but with an account <$25,000, they apparently charge a separate commission of 1 tick, so the spread for my intents and purposes would be more like 1.5 ticks...which isn't bad...that's pretty close to what FXCM micro is now.

 

(With a $25,000+ account, the commission is drastically reduced...anywhere from 0.1-0.2 ticks, depending on the size of the account. I simply don't have that much, though.)

 

I'm not sure where you see the commission based on account size, it is based off trade size. You can see the breakdown yourself on their website under the fees section, but its something like if you trade 25k - 1bln a month you will end up paying the greatest of either $2.5 each way or 0.2 basis point * trade value. Clearly you can see that its not a lot, and with spreads on the euro at often 0.5pip it can work out better than the futures.

[thalestrader 14]

Hi folks,

 

I had a nice short on the 6E over night into the morning, and then I did just a bit better than break even on the 6B, taking a small loss on a long and a small profit on a short.

 

Here is the one that got away, though not for much at this point. TTT had the 6E on a Buy day, and as such, the expectation was for a decline to buy into for the next three day rally (As Rigel has mentioned, too many folks get frustrated with Taylor because they think that a Buy Day should bring a rlaly, not a decline, when in fact the ideal Buy Day sees a continued decline from the short sale day high - which is exactly what we got today).

 

TTT gave a 100% chance of a 1.3548 low, so I had buy limit at 1.3549. Actual low was 1.3550 (a difference of two ticks out of an average 189 tick decline short sale day high to buy day low), which was a pretty nice call considering I was able to sell the 6E at 1.3711 last night (I didn't post it, so you can choose to believe it or not). As far as the buy limit, I usually place my orders 5-10 ticks above/below a TTT level, especially when the TTT is, for example, below an S/R level, in this case the TTT target was below the mid-figure at 1.3550.

 

 

Anyhow, shouldawouldacoulda I did close the short at 1.3571 when it became apparent that price was not going to give me a dip below 1.3550 before the NY close. I'd have liked to have had a chance to be long at 1.3549 with a stop at 1.3547, but what I would like and what the market gives me too often diverge in reality (though when I see 100% odds I do tend to get a bit cocky with my orders as I really like when I buy a tick or two off a low - what can I say, I just a human being, after all).

 

Tomorrow is NFP, so it should be an interesting day!

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[MidKnight 12]

Solid plan yesterday as the market worked at resolving the first decent R and also the immediate minor S. The current situation is where it starts to get muddy for me. I need to stay flexible and stick to my attention points today. The general feel is that more down will occur because the R has not been deeply penetrated and its had two goes at it, but it is an NFP day so that puts a spanner in the works.

 

I'm seeing this current minor S as sort of 'used up' so I'll pay attention at lower prices a the next minor S in the 1.4940/80 area, I'll be exiting longs here rather aggressively by exiting 1/2 before 1.5020 trades and trailing the rest as per the 15m chart. Then there is the lower S after the spike low in the 1.4850/900 area. Longs down there will be out of 1/2 before 1.5020 trades, another 1/4 before 1.5100 trades, and then trail it back to this upper R area via the 60m chart for a new high on the last 1/4.

 

Like shorts up in the 1.5120/60 area. Especially like them on a move above PDH. Aim to be out of 1/2 before 1.5020 trades, another 1/4 before 1.4980 trades and the final 1/4 exit in the 1.4850/900 area.

[Cory2679 11]

I'm not sure where you see the commission based on account size, it is based off trade size. You can see the breakdown yourself on their website under the fees section, but its something like if you trade 25k - 1bln a month you will end up paying the greatest of either $2.5 each way or 0.2 basis point * trade value. Clearly you can see that its not a lot, and with spreads on the euro at often 0.5pip it can work out better than the futures.

 

You're right, I misread.

[thalestrader 14]

I'm willing ot go to be risking 1R on this long EURUSD (trading 6E) - Don't bother waking me if I am stopped out...

 

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[brownsfan019 17]

Target hit for about 40 ticks. Not bad. We just keep having these sell offs most days lately on oil.

 

 

Nice charts dinero!

 

Oil is a great market to be trading, even when it's 'tight' there's still money to be made. Keep it up.