Reading Charts in Real Time

[patrader 10]

15m 6B

[Plaste 10]

Sorry to post after the fact but always forget when I'm in the middle of setting limits and so on and just wanted to get the ball moving. Here's a trade I'm currently in. Long Euro $ cash at 1.3624, stop 1.3591, limit 1.3681. Stop to b/e at first green line.

 

Well that all took so long stop is now 1.3625.

[Plaste 10]

Sorry to post after the fact but always forget when I'm in the middle of setting limits and so on and just wanted to get the ball moving. Here's a trade I'm currently in. Long Euro $ cash at 1.3624, stop 1.3591, limit 1.3681. Stop to b/e at first green line.

 

Well that all took so long stop is now 1.3625.

 

Out for + 1 tick. Maybe should have taken profits when price quickly rejected 1.3655. Any comments or suggetions welcome.

[DugDug 10]

Hi Plaste - you just hit the age old - do i take profits or not - I know you posted in the other thread I started.

Answer so far for me - completely up to the individual - so long as the process becomes consistent. There is nothing worse than taking profits on the runners, and then not taking profits on retracements.

Thales seems to ratchet up the trailing stop much quicker than many so is that a take profits or a stop?

 

Either way my thoughts on the EUR are to continue to look for shorts - however on saying that the 15min chart is showing signs of bullish resilience - overlapping highs and lows so I am sitting out and waiting. I still feel it needs to fall a little to make a higher low prior to rallying if thats what it is going to do.

GBP 15m - looks like a choppy rally - looking to sell a spike above 1.5150, or a break down of the small channel upwards.

Es and FESX - all wait and see - potentially bearish for a quick job trade but not doing anything today.

(no charts as I am switching a few things over today)

[Kiwi 16]

DugDug has the key point: "so long as the process becomes consistent"

 

Whatever you do you shouldn't leave it up in the air. If you do that you will probably follow the majority into the path of picking the wrong one each time. Under stress (live trade, lots of money ticking up and down) you do not make the best decisions.

 

Have a plan. Execute it. Accept that every alternative will cause some form of pain at least half the time if you hope/want/wish to optimize each trade. And instead congratulate yourself on consistent every time execution.

[thalestrader 14]

Have a plan. Execute it. Accept that every alternative will cause some form of pain at least half the time if you hope/want/wish to optimize each trade.

 

Two good posts from Kiwi and Dug Dug>

 

I have posted plenty of trades here where I have been taken out on my trailing stop only to watch price then zoom off in favor of the trade for an additional 150 ticks (such as happened Sunday night when I shorted at 1.3649 and my trailing stop took me out f the trade at 1.3630, and then price dropped steadily over the next few hours to 1.3460 or so. I have posted other trades, such as yesterday, where my trailing stop takes me out of a short just 8 ticks off the low before price reversed higher. I do not know which trade I should hold and which I should tighten stops on, so I trade each position of like degree the same.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Out for + 1 tick. Maybe should have taken profits when price quickly rejected 1.3655. Any comments or suggetions welcome.

 

I would think that any longs initiated up here ought to be trailed with a tight stop or have a fairly close profit target with a rsting limit order. Here is why I think so:

 

I would suggest that anyone trading the 6E/EURUSD using 15 minute or shorter time frame for his or her main trading to chart will find it helpful not to lose sight of the big picture. A four hour view of the EURUSD shows that after the most recent down leg, price has entered a sideways range, and it is currently trading at the top of that range, thick with resistance up to about 1.3700. My approach would be that any longs be taken near the bottom of that range, and to look primarily for shorts at these levels, unless there is an upside break and hold of the 1.37 level. If I were enticed into a long at this level, it would be with small, 20-50 tick profit targets and tight trailing stop loss.

 

Also, this is NFP week, so at any moment (and it may already have happened as of yesterday) the 6E will likely slip into a coma and become a true scalper's product until Friday morning. It may yet, of course, break out prior to the number. It may yet test the lows of the range again. Or, it may simply rest, consolidating up here at the upper end of this range. The One Trillion Dollar question is this: Is this range between 1.3400-1.3700 going to yield to a continuation or a reversal of the downtrend? I do not know, and neither does anyone else. So, for now, I will play the current range - short the top, long the bottom, beware the midpoint.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

If you're still here plaste, here are two long opportunities in hindsight from your morning and from my last night (as in I was sleeping when these occurred).

 

In each case, I see a perfectly acceptable long opportunity, but since each was taken near the top of the current range as defined in my above post, I would have exited the entire position at the green line, which would typically have been PT1 where I'd only exit 1/2 and leave half on for a higher PT2. When long near a top, my expectations are less than if I am long near a bottom.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[richbois 10]

my reply is definatly in hindsight since I dont trade FX very often. But let me explain why TTT may have help take the profit at 1.3655.

 

Today is a Sell day and as such we should expect a rally that started on the Buy day low (yesterday) at 1.3433 I have 2 different ways to calculate what the average rally should be.

 

One is based all the data since Jan 1, 2008 and that TTT rally would take you to 1.3615

Second is based on data of the last 20 cycle or 3 months Called TTT MA that is at 1.3550

 

The rally was mostly accomplished on the Buy day. The Sell day opened at the TTT Rally level and tried to continue higher causing a penetration of the Buy Day high.

 

The average MA penetration takes you to 1.3660 and the regular to 1.3703

 

So for me TTT would dictate that some profit should be taken at the 1.3660 level

 

Also most Sell days where the rally has been mostly accomplised on the Buy day, ends up being a confusing day. What I mean by confusing day is that they are usualy see-saw days.

 

I hope that helps expalin how I would have used TTT in this situation.

[Plaste 10]

Thanks for the comments folks.

I took the trade for the following reasons:

 

1. On my 15 tick range chart we had a breakout to the downside of a bull flag that was rejected at nearby resistance (yesterday's 1.3549).

 

2. I'm currently looking just at the pound, yen and euro for daytrading and the euro looked stronger than the pound and the yen was just choppy.

 

3. Trade was early in the (european) morning when any decent move might be expected to develop.

 

4. It felt right! My paper trading of this style of trading suggests that using a little intuition can be useful, not so much for initiating trades but for avoiding them.

 

Target was the resistance Thales refers to. And the fact that this trade didn't go anywhere suggests we may be near a top or chop zone. I'm on the sidelines for the time being.

 

Thanks for the comments about NFP, Thales, you pre-empted my question.

 

Tom.

[Plaste 10]

Thanks for the comments folks.

I took the trade for the following reasons:

 

1. On my 15 tick range chart we had a breakout to the downside of a bull flag that was rejected at nearby resistance (yesterday's 1.3549).

 

2. I'm currently looking just at the pound, yen and euro for daytrading and the euro looked stronger than the pound and the yen was just choppy.

 

3. Trade was early in the (european) morning when any decent move might be expected to develop.

 

4. It felt right! My paper trading of this style of trading suggests that using a little intuition can be useful, not so much for initiating trades but for avoiding them.

 

Target was the resistance Thales refers to. And the fact that this trade didn't go anywhere suggests we may be near a top or chop zone. I'm on the sidelines for the time being.

 

Thanks for the comments about NFP, Thales, you pre-empted my question.

 

Tom.

[thalestrader 14]

... let me explain why TTT may have help take the profit at 1.3655....

 

I would add that as with anything I use - whether it is TTT or fib's or chart patterns or trend lines, that actual support and resistance always takes precedence over all else.

 

When the TTT targets fall within a zone of S/R, that helps me narrow my focus and tighten orders.

 

I have said the same with fibs - there is no magic to them. All they do is help you gain a measured sense of proportion between swings. If a fib number falls within an S/R zone, it helps, if it is out in the middle of nowhere, then unless it is the midpoint of a range, it is likely just another random chart point.

 

TTT is similar in that it is based upon the average extent of the average cycle low to cycle high (anyone familiar with Trader Vic will know the value of considering the average extent of moves of like degree). If a TTT number falls with an S/R zone, it becomes very relevant for my trading. If, on the other hand, it is hanging out there in the middle of nowhere, then it is likely just another random chart point with no more or less meaning than any other tick out there in no man's land.

 

S/R comes first, and that helps you navigate from S to R to S as price travels through the middle of nowhere. TTT and fib's and chart patterns and trend lines simply help to give shape with areas of S/R. Outside of S/R, most of these derivative values are simply random. Each is extremely valuable when used in conjunction with S/R. Without S/R, each is merely a crap shoot.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[fxThunder 10]

Hi Everyone,

 

EminiNQtrader has now changed name to fxThunder - I am now only focussed on forex and decided the name change is required to reflect this focus.

 

The thunder portion of my name refers to the daily thunderstorms that occur in my part of the world and are very powerful to experience. Hopefully that power can be transferred to my forex trading.

 

Cheers,

fxT

[fxThunder 10]

Short on EU setting up.

 

Cheers,

fxT

 

Cancelled short stalk on EU

Edited March 3, 2010 by fxThunder

[fxThunder 10]

Similarly a short stalk on GU.

 

Cheers,

fxT

[thalestrader 14]

I prefer the short side as well, but I'd rather consider an entry such as this given the choppiness of the waves and location within the range in which price finds itself ...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[fxThunder 10]

Similarly a short stalk on GU.

 

Cheers,

fxT

 

Cancelled short stalk on GU

[thalestrader 14]

I prefer the short side as well, but I'd rather consider an entry such as this given the choppiness of the waves and location within the range in which price finds itself ...

 

-.25R on the short entry and 1.3701 and 1.3680 should be the prices levels to watch for break up or break down ...

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[richbois 10]

Well 1.3660 offered resistance for quite a while and they didnt bother stopping at my second level of 1.3703

[DugDug 10]

This actually brings up a good point about waiting for trades - (this also applies to Corys thread at present as well)

 

For some years I had the issue of not really having a view, watching an instrument go into a choppy range and then trying to take lots of small trades- usually costing me money. Such as shorting an instrument in a downtrend, when its starting to retrace or congest.

 

One thing that has worked for me (when I actually practice it ) is when I look at the market and feel that its entering an area of congestion - such as the 6E - it could retrace, could fall. Either way I am not comfortable with the current pattern.

(this is how I thing I could probably use TTT as a guide not to chase, and not to necessarily look for the trades that may not be here today, but may tomorrow)

 

I mentally ask myself - do I need to be here. If the answer is no then I usually sit and wait.

There is not an imperative to make $x per day but rather to take the trades that will maximise my year end PL through a series of trades. This takes a lot of pressure off feeling like I have to make every day, and if for example at the end of the week I make $5000 from 3 days with good setups as opposed to grinding it out with lots of trades to make the same I know which choice I would always take.

 

(I realise you never know which days really will be good or bad sometimes, however after years of trading you get the feel for when to step away and wait.There are always opportunities)

(today coincides that I had other things to do, but the point is the same.)

[fxThunder 10]

EURJPY certainly is the weaker of the bunch and has a short setup worth stalking.

 

Cheers

fxT

[fxThunder 10]

EJ short entry triggered...

[Plaste 10]

If you're still here plaste, here are two long opportunities in hindsight from your morning and from my last night (as in I was sleeping when these occurred).

 

In each case, I see a perfectly acceptable long opportunity, but since each was taken near the top of the current range as defined in my above post, I would have exited the entire position at the green line, which would typically have been PT1 where I'd only exit 1/2 and leave half on for a higher PT2. When long near a top, my expectations are less than if I am long near a bottom.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Thanks for the input. Your first example is the one I took. From my paper trading I know that I can reasonably guess where the market is going next but that this is usually not far enough to generate enough profit. That is why I move the stop to b/e and look for the next leg of the move - in this case up to the 1.3683 level.

 

The second trade I didn't see as I was using range bars but I know from some backtesting I've done that those small inside bars have value. However the message I'm getting loud and clear is that I'm trading up against some serious resistance that needs to be paid a bit more respect.

 

Tom.

[Plaste 10]

my reply is definatly in hindsight since I dont trade FX very often. But let me explain why TTT may have help take the profit at 1.3655.

 

Today is a Sell day and as such we should expect a rally that started on the Buy day low (yesterday) at 1.3433 I have 2 different ways to calculate what the average rally should be.

 

One is based all the data since Jan 1, 2008 and that TTT rally would take you to 1.3615

Second is based on data of the last 20 cycle or 3 months Called TTT MA that is at 1.3550

 

The rally was mostly accomplished on the Buy day. The Sell day opened at the TTT Rally level and tried to continue higher causing a penetration of the Buy Day high.

 

The average MA penetration takes you to 1.3660 and the regular to 1.3703

 

So for me TTT would dictate that some profit should be taken at the 1.3660 level

 

Also most Sell days where the rally has been mostly accomplised on the Buy day, ends up being a confusing day. What I mean by confusing day is that they are usualy see-saw days.

 

I hope that helps expalin how I would have used TTT in this situation.

 

It was a bit of a shock to me to find so much interest in TTT. When I first read the book it made no sense at all but you guys have persuaded me to dig it out and have another look...

[thalestrader 14]

It was a bit of a shock to me to find so much interest in TTT. When I first read the book it made no sense at all but you guys have persuaded me to dig it out and have another look...

 

Just remember that as a matter of full disclosure, richbois is a vendor who does sell a service based on TTT. That doesn't make him a bad guy (I happen to think very highly of richbois), but I want to make sure we avoid any commercial intent in this thread, and that we keep any TTT discussion to real time trades at hand.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales