Reading Charts in Real Time

[MidKnight 12]

Massive down day that really felt like capitulation. If looking at a daily chart it is clear that we have been in a down trend for a couple months and now, without any breakout, we put in a huge range bar. When I was watching it real-time the 15m bar into the low put in a range of about 200 pips. Should that a true capitulation, we won't test that low for at least a few days at the earliest and all the downside testing will happen at higher prices. So I will keep that in mind going forward and use new information to measure if this was a true capitulation or not. Despite the my trend measures all pointing firmly down, I need to shift my focus to the long side for at least the next few days. The only real area I can have to get long from is in the rather large 1.4880 - 1.4950 area with a higher focus being paid to the 1.4930/50 area.

 

Pay attention in the 1.4930/50 area for signs of support. 1.4880 really is the last stop for much support to hold above the lows. Stay off longs if we break that until breaking below PDL. Ideal targets for longs are back up in the 1.5100 - 1.5180 area, but I will be scaling out at least 1/3 before a print of 1.5020.

 

I do feel excessive risk on the short side at the moment but should the market have broken below 1.4980 when I am trading tonight, and then it comes back up to test that area from below before having hit 1.4950, then I would consider a short and scaling out quite aggressively in the 1.4930-50 area with at least 3/4ths gone should it make it down to 1.4880 area.

[thalestrader 14]

Rich,

You might consider starting a thread here at TL to give an explanation of your service and show some real time use of the data you would receive as a subscriber and how you think it can be used to improve your trading. I am interested and have considered using it several times. I trade oil almost exclusively so your CL service is what I have considered. Thanks.

 

Hi Dinero,

 

richbois did participate in the TTT thread here at TL and Rigel shared the links here in this thread this past weekend. I would suggest that if you are interested in TTT, you read George Douglas Taylor' original book before subscribing to richbois's thread (I'm sure richbois would agree that at least a passing familiarity, and preferably rudimentary understanding of Taylor is necessary to really benefit from richbois's TTT service). In fact, though richbois offers free trials, I'd suggest that you not burn your free trial before you try Taylor on your own.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Dinerotrader 10]

Hi Dinero,

 

richbois did participate in the TTT thread here at TL and Rigel shared the links here in this thread this past weekend. I would suggest that if you are interested in TTT, you read George Douglas Taylor' original book before subscribing to richbois's thread (I'm sure richbois would agree that at least a passing familiarity, and preferably rudimentary understanding of Taylor is necessary to really benefit from richbois's TTT service). In fact, though richbois offers free trials, I'd suggest that you not burn your free trial before you try Taylor on your own.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Thanks. I remember reading through that entire thread, its too bad it got driven into the ground by a few bad posters. I tried to get Taylor stuff in the past but it was beyond me at the time I was reading it. Just thought it would be good for Rich as well as a novice trading group to see the implementation of his service in trading methodology before trying to give Taylor another read through.

[thalestrader 14]

... Just thought it would be good for Rich as well as a novice trading group to see the implementation of his service in trading methodology before trying to give Taylor another read through.

 

Taylor is one of those things that require an "aha" moment that probably only comes from direct struggle with the text.

 

It isn't easy, but I think Rigel would agree with me that it is worth it.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

I would suggest that if you are interested in TTT, you read George Douglas Taylor' original book

 

I just ordered the book.

 

It seems to be popular around here lately, so I figured it'd be worth a read...just as something on the side for now...

 

-Cory

[thalestrader 14]

I just ordered the book.

 

It seems to be popular around here lately, so I figured it'd be worth a read...just as something on the side for now...

 

-Cory

 

I only mentioned TTT again to explain a trade about which Midk asked last week. I've used Taylor's method everyday since January of 2006 - so its been a favorite of mine for a long time. But I do not have the will or the patience to try to explain Taylor. If you want to learn his method, you are on your own. But I will give you this hint - think highs and lows, higher highs and higher lows, lower highs and lower lows, prior highs and prior lows, and observe how the market cycles between highs and lows, prior highs and prior lows.

 

Also, it does take quite an effort to get through Taylor and understand him. When you get the book, do not read the publisher's forward, do not read George Angell's or Linda Raschke's essays. Ever.

 

Just stick with studying Taylor.

 

You will probably find that reading and re-reading the first chapter several times will speed up the process as you will eventually figure out how to read his version of English.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[patrader 10]

Massive down day that really felt like capitulation. If looking at a daily chart it is clear that we have been in a down trend for a couple months and now, without any breakout, we put in a huge range bar. When I was watching it real-time the 15m bar into the low put in a range of about 200 pips. Should that a true capitulation, we won't test that low for at least a few days at the earliest and all the downside testing will happen at higher prices. So I will keep that in mind going forward and use new information to measure if this was a true capitulation or not. Despite the my trend measures all pointing firmly down, I need to shift my focus to the long side for at least the next few days. The only real area I can have to get long from is in the rather large 1.4880 - 1.4950 area with a higher focus being paid to the 1.4930/50 area.

 

Pay attention in the 1.4930/50 area for signs of support. 1.4880 really is the last stop for much support to hold above the lows. Stay off longs if we break that until breaking below PDL. Ideal targets for longs are back up in the 1.5100 - 1.5180 area, but I will be scaling out at least 1/3 before a print of 1.5020.

 

I do feel excessive risk on the short side at the moment but should the market have broken below 1.4980 when I am trading tonight, and then it comes back up to test that area from below before having hit 1.4950, then I would consider a short and scaling out quite aggressively in the 1.4930-50 area with at least 3/4ths gone should it make it down to 1.4880 area.

 

15m 6B

[DugDug 10]

I downloaded and read the George (must be a Dyslexic writer) Taylor book over the weekend.

The way I do these things is to read it makes some notes. Put it down and leave it for a week let the subconscious work on it, then try again (and possibly again) as Thales said you need the "aha" moment.

So far my take is he provides an interesting take on the structure of how a market moves, that if you can get into sync with it can certainly help with visualising the flow of the market, and objective points. This can really hep a trader pre plan the next days likely action.

My first thought is not to think too much in terms of days as he talks about - but in terms of swings and flow of the market (especially not with near 24 hr trading)

I may be wrong here but I think Thales hints at this with the hint of looking at highs, lows, and the moves between them.

If I find it fits in with my mindset, I get the aha moment and find it adds value the associated website certainly looks a great tool to save me the work of trying to crunch numbers myself.

lets see what the future holds.

[thalestrader 14]

Here is my CL play of the day at the moment - short at 79.40 (yesterday's break down point), with a stop loss one tick above this morning's 79.48 high - risk is 9 ticks.

 

Profit target is 2 Bills at 77.40 - 200 ticks ...

 

I would have rather this took place after the pit opens at 9AM EST, but, you got to take them when they are offered.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Dinerotrader 10]

Here is my CL play of the day at the moment - short at 79.40 (yesterday's break down point), with a stop loss one tick above this morning's 79.48 high - risk is 9 ticks.

 

I'm surprised you don't wait until after the pit open to enter into positions. Interesting.

[thalestrader 14]

I'm surprised you don't wait until after the pit open to enter into positions. Interesting.

 

 

As I said, I would much prefer to wait for the pit open, and usually do and will. But when price gets to a level at which it will likely not stay long, I'd rather be in than not. Like I have always said, for every rule I have, I usually have a bushel or two of trades where I broke with the rule.

 

I did get stopped for -9 (-.53R) on the initial short, and I rshorted at 79.53, which was one tick off the high, and I have a -2 tick stop on it (-.11R). Still looking to play for a potenital 2 dollar drop. However, the decline may be in with yesterday's sell off, and it might actually be time to buy for the ensuing rally. We shall see. Here is how it looks on a daily chart and on a 1 miute chart (I had to move the demo stop loss so as to shoe the entry better).

 

 

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Current view of the 6E has me getting ready to go short on a sell stop at 1.3568 ...

 

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Current view of the 6E has me getting ready to go short on a sell stop at 1.3568 ...

 

I've had two posts disappear into the electronic haze of the internet, so I will try this once more:

 

My sell stop at 68 was filled at 69 (real life and demo) and soon after my stop was lowered to 70, where I was stopped out for -.06R. I then placed a sell stop at 62, for a break to new lows.

 

Apparently my sell stop at 62 was filled at 63 on the dmo, and I received fills at 63 and 62 in real life (avergae fill 62.42). My stop loss was very quickly brought down to 64, which, if stopped, will be a -.1 (-1/10th0)R.

 

In real life, I have targets set to scale out. For the sake of the demo account, I will trail a stop down with the intent of limiting out at +100 or capturing a portion of the move via a trailing stop.

 

I wanted to show how I manage trades, cut quick, and re-enter in real time, but like I say, my posts for some reason did not post to the thread.

 

Here are the charts I had tried to post:

 

 

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

Thales,

 

Just a quick question...

 

When you enter a trade, pull out/stop out for a very small loss, and re-enter on new lows/highs, do you "count" that all as one trade for the sake of winrate/average win/average loss/etc.? I've recently been keeping careful track of that sort of thing, and I've counted it as one trade when I do that.

 

Just curious.

 

Thanks,

 

Cory

[thalestrader 14]

Just a quick question...

 

When you enter a trade, pull out/stop out for a very small loss, and re-enter on new lows/highs, do you "count" that all as one trade for the sake of winrate/average win/average loss/etc.?...

 

I'll start counting it as one trade only when my broker offers to rebate my commissions and lost equity from the first position. Until then, for my records, it is two trades.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

I'll start counting it as one trade only when my broker offers to rebate my commissions and lost equity from the first position. Until then, for my records, it is two trades.

 

Sound logic. I will adjust my spreadsheet.

[thalestrader 14]

Current view of the 6E has me getting ready to go short on a sell stop at 1.3568 ...

 

 

My sell stop at 68 was filled at 69 (real life and demo) and soon after my stop was lowered to 70, where I was stopped out for -.06R. I then placed a sell stop at 62, for a break to new lows.

 

Apparently my sell stop at 62 was filled at 63 on the dmo, and I received fills at 63 and 62 in real life (avergae fill 62.42). My stop loss was very quickly brought down to 64, which, if stopped, will be a -.1 (-1/10th0)R ... I will trail a stop down with the intent of limiting out at +100 or capturing a portion of the move via a trailing stop.

 

Stop progression to 59 then to 55 ...

 

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Stop progression to 59 then to 55 ...

 

then 42 ...

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Stop progression to 59 then to 55 ...

then 42 ...

 

and then 24 ...

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

and then 24 ...

 

Stopped at 25 which would be +2.6R less the -.06R from the first test entry yields a +2R result.

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[fxThunder 10]

Hi Everyone,

 

Couldashouldawoulda - that is a summary of my day when staring at these charts in hindsight. Missed some very nice opportunities due to not being able to watch the market today.

 

Anyhow, just checking in and hoping for some more opportunities today.

 

Cheers,

eNQ

[richbois 10]

I would be more than happy to answer questions on TTT if you guys want me to. I am in Europe at the moment so we will have delays due to time zone difference.

 

I also find it hard to post and trade at the same time, most of my trades are short and sweet and therefore need my full attention. I must say that I admire Thales for being able to do that.

 

I also heve a question. I use to get email notifications of new posts on threads and for some reason this is not happening lately does anyone have a clue why

[thalestrader 14]

I also heve a question. I use to get email notifications of new posts on threads and for some reason this is not happening lately does anyone have a clue why

 

well, you are, how can I put this delicately .... you are, you see, to be blunt, you are a vendor ....

 

Just kidding richbois ... as far as vendors go, you're ok in my book.

 

You need to subscribe to a thread to get notices. Go to thread tools at the top of the thread, and make sure you click subscribe. If you already are subscribed, then you need to go to your user control panel, and make sure you select the option that allows for email notifications ...

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[rigel 10]

Taylor is one of those things that require an "aha" moment that probably only comes from direct struggle with the text.

 

It isn't easy, but I think Rigel would agree with me that it is worth it.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Yes Taylors book is certainly a very hard slog and totally worth it, have to go over each para time and again making notes drawing patterns etc but each chapter is a gem.

As I said before both WHY? and Richbois have done a great job at clarifying lots of concepts on the Taylor thread, it was a shame it was hijacked by a very bellicose participant.

[richbois 10]

well, you are, how can I put this delicately .... you are, you see, to be blunt, you are a vendor ....

 

Just kidding richbois ... as far as vendors go, you're ok in my book.

 

You need to subscribe to a thread to get notices. Go to thread tools at the top of the thread, and make sure you click subscribe. If you already are subscribed, then you need to go to your user control panel, and make sure you select the option that allows for email notifications ...

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

or maybe putting my new email address would do the trick :crap: