Reading Charts in Real Time

[forrestang 10]

I usually don't watch currencies in the day. But what do you fine gentlemen think about these two scenarios?

 

Blue line is the breakdown through support for the short.

 

Green line is the first anticipated area where price would find support.

 

And notice on a macro level, each High circled w/the red dot is right at about the 50% retracement from the major swing High to Low.

 

 

------EDIT--------

I just noticed after posting, G/J might have some support sooner than the line I posted. It's slightly to the left, that little wedge that we based an entry the other day off of.

 

G/J trade broke out well. Half off at first green line for a few more than 30Pips, other half stop at BE.

 

G/U initiated but it is dragging ass and sitting at entry.

Edited October 1, 2009 by forrestang

[forrestang 10]

Here's an update.

 

I was able to update the G/J to a stop better than BE above a recent swing high. Came within a few ticks of the 2nd target.

 

The G/U is not moving with the expediency I would like to see, but finally started moving slightly. I have adjusted the stop to at least a reasonable point should it become a loser.

 

 

-------EDIT------ 19:09CST _ New picture posted

The red lines are just me moving my stop on my charts so I don't have to keep recreating the lines in Snagit.

 

G/J hit the second target!

 

G/U finally got some good movement on it. Adjusting stop down to 1.5932.

Edited October 2, 2009 by forrestang

[thalestrader 14]

G/J trade broke out well. Half off at first green line for a few more than 30Pips, other half stop at BE.

 

G/U initiated but it is dragging ass and sitting at entry.

 

Nice trade, Forrest! Price did break out nicely.

 

Looking at the GBPUSD, look how price is currently finding support at the double bottom buy point from the other day. This does not mean thaty price will not break below that point. It may or may not work its way lower. But it does show that that buy point was not just another random price level in the middle of nowhere - traders used that level as a signal that the trend was turning up. Traders who missed the first opportunity to buy there (the breakout) are now using that level as a pullback entry.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Gabe2004 10]

Here's an update.

 

I was able to update the G/J to a stop better than BE above a recent swing high. Came within a few ticks of the 2nd target.

 

The G/U is not moving with the expediency I would like to see, but finally started moving slightly. I have adjusted the stop to at least a reasonable point should it become a loser.

 

The red lines are just me moving my stop on my charts so I don't have to keep recreating the lines in Snagit.

 

G/J hit the second target!

 

G/U finally got some good movement on it. Adjusting stop down to 1.5932.

 

It seems that trading 2 instruments in parallel would have worked in your favour.

Pairs involving the GBP seem to outperform pairs with EUR in them

 

Gabe

[forrestang 10]

It seems that trading 2 instruments in parallel would have worked in your favour.

Pairs involving the GBP seem to outperform pairs with EUR in them

 

Gabe

I am usually the last to catch on, what do you mean?

[forrestang 10]

Nice trade, Forrest! Price did break out nicely.

 

Looking at the GBPUSD, look how price is currently finding support at the double bottom buy point from the other day. This does not mean thaty price will not break below that point. It may or may not work its way lower. But it does show that that buy point was not just another random price level in the middle of nowhere - traders used that level as a signal that the trend was turning up. Traders who missed the first opportunity to buy there (the breakout) are now using that level as a pullback entry.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

This G/U is stubborn. If you are still around, can you explain how you would be managing this trade if you were in it, similiar to your comments last night?

 

This trade has printed a HL, on a move down. As it sits now, loss would be about 14-16 pips or so if it hits the current stop(1.5932) w/o moving down. My thoughts are basically, since this hasn't continued to move down hard, I would want to see a press down with an opportunity to get the stop to BE.

 

The entry was at 1.5914. Tgt was down near 1.5855.

 

Along w/your comments last night, I suppose something I was always thinking in terms of management was sitting through at least 1 retracement in order to pull the stop closer. And generally managing the trades with pullbacks if that makes sense? With the trades I spoke of and referred to as false BOs, they never really yielded any retracements before falling on their faces.

 

------EDIT-------

G/U hit the stop for a 14pip loss

Edited October 2, 2009 by forrestang

[ZenMachine 10]

I would advise anyone who follows this thread to use my trading of the ES today as a lesson on how not to trade.

 

Hi Thales,

 

I have not been able to contribute to this thread lately, but have been following this. Your examples and insights are truly inspiring to me.

 

It's rare to see someone as competent as you showing your mistakes and explain them in detail. There is so much to learn for a beginning trader like me from such examples.

Most educating is the attitude you have with such failed trades. You're not upset, and have such willingness to review your mistakes in order to improve.

 

As for the reason you made such uncharacteristic mistakes, perhaps is it because you took somewhat similar pattern(an early impulsive downward move reversed up after brief congestion) yesterday to profit?

I've made the mistake myself many times, insisting to repeat successful past patterns when they're not really there...

 

Anyway, thanks again. I hope you get some rest.

[thalestrader 14]

As for the reason you made such uncharacteristic mistakes, perhaps is it because you took somewhat similar pattern(an early impulsive downward move reversed up after brief congestion) yesterday to profit?

 

I've made the mistake myself many times, insisting to repeat successful past patterns when they're not really there...

 

Anyway, thanks again. I hope you get some rest.

 

Hi Zen,

 

The long side has outperformed the short side for most of the last six months or so, and you are correct in that a long trade the prior day after a rapid decline resulted in a nice profit. However, the prior day did not gap open lower than the prior day's close. I do not have the chart in front of me, but if I am not mistaken, the market may have actually gapped open higher that day. The patterns were not the same, either in the maner the market opened or where I was attempting to buy.

 

Bottom line is I just was not thinking. I somehow did not acknowledge the gap lower with the same significance I know it to have. I know that there are others here at TL who disregard gaps, or use the existence of 24 hour data to argue that gaps simply do not exist. But gaps do exist, and gaps do have significance. Yesterday I just was not thinking clearly.

 

Thank you for your post, and please contribute your charts when you are able.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Gabe2004 10]

I am usually the last to catch on, what do you mean?

 

Hello Forrest

 

What I mean is that it seems that either GJ or GU would break out decisively or one of the other 2 pairs that you desplayed (EJ or EU) will break out decisively. So maybe it makes sense to trade 2 instruments of the same kind and once one makes its move, close the other one and ride the rocket that left earth.

you may cut you position in half by this but if you took the wrong instrument you would make nothing.

One can always add to a winning position later with the cash freed by selling the non performing instrument.

 

Take care

 

Gabe

[subterfuge 10]

Bought into the gap today looking for the gap to try to close. Very pleased with this one. Gonna likely stop for the day and read rather than do my usualy trick of giving winnings back on rubbish trades!

 

in at 1019 out 1023.25

[Gabe2004 10]

thought this might be helpful.

Trader Vic 123 Reversal Pattern Setup

 

Gabe

[Gabe2004 10]

2 trades tonight.

1st target in both was a simple numeric target.

The 2nd and 3rd targets were based on SR areas that seemed like logical targets at the time.

EJ 10, 30, 58 pips.

GJ 14, 40, 108 pips.

Average 43 pips per unit.

Gabe

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

Here are looks at my daughter's favorite currency paor, the EURJPY.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Gabe2004 10]

Some charts with noted levels

 

Gabe

[forrestang 10]

Just a thought on NQ, any opinions? ES is displaying similar behavior.

 

The 60 min chart thumbnail is a macro view of where we are currently.

[ZenMachine 10]

Just a thought on NQ, any opinions? ES is displaying similar behavior.

 

The 60 min chart thumbnail is a macro view of where we are currently.

 

Hi Forrest,

 

I am looking at QQQQ and thinking to enter above 41.39. It's just bouncing off the trendline in the daily chart and looking to move up.

 

 

-z

Edited October 5, 2009 by ZenMachine

[ZenMachine 10]

I am looking at QQQQ and thinking to enter above 41.39. It's just bouncing off the trendline in the daily chart and looking to move up.

 

Price poked above 41.39 for a minute, but came back down and continued to form an ascending triangle.

 

Probably not the best practice, but I entered long at 41.23 without waiting for the break above 41.40, with a stop loss order below today's low (40.83).

 

I entered early because I thought that there were more elements suggesting an upward move from here (daily trendline, ascending triangle), and was afraid that I may not have time tomorrow morning to watch the market.

 

If price gets knocked down at Target 1 in the chart, I will exit the trade there, but otherwise I plan to hold this position for several days, or even longer until it reaches Target 2 or even to 43.1.

 

-z

[forrestang 10]

Everything looks like it's getting ready to move. For me seems to be ready to break to the downside for some reason?

 

The picture isn't condensed, the point is just to provide a point of reference. I think I am liking he two pairs on he right side for the moment.

 

We'll see what happens. Opinions fellas?

 

Forrest

[Gabe2004 10]

Everything looks like it's getting ready to move. For me seems to be ready to break to the downside for some reason?

 

The picture isn't condensed, the point is just to provide a point of reference. I think I am liking he two pairs on he right side for the moment.

 

We'll see what happens. Opinions fellas?

 

Forrest

 

Here are 4h charts of the same instruments.

Looks like it could go either way.

Based on the stock market action today I would say we are going up but NO GUARANTIES FROM THE MANAGEMENT

 

Gabe

[ZenMachine 10]

Here is a 60min chart of ININ (Interactive Intelligence).

 

It broke above the down trendline from last week. I think I'm going to go long if it goes above 19.44 tomorrow.

 

-z

[forrestang 10]

Based on the stock market action today I would say we are going up but NO GUARANTIES FROM THE MANAGEMENT

 

Gabe

 

looks like you might be right:cool:

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

Lots of ranges and ranges within ranges. Here is a look at the Yen flashing a rally attempt.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited October 6, 2009 by thalestrader
spelling

[thalestrader 14]

Here is a look at the Yen flashing a rally attempt.

 

From flasher to streaker ...

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

Here's mine.

 

Also attaching interesting action on EU as well.

[thalestrader 14]

From flasher to streaker ...

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Possible target if this rally continues No predictions ... just making notes. If I were long on that breakout, I'd be at or near breakeven on my stop loss.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales