Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

thalestrader

Reading Charts in Real Time

Recommended Posts

... Stop loss as shown would be lowered immediately to one tick above the current little bounce from the entry point upon entry...

 

For example, should entry trigger without price trading higher than the level shown by the red line here, that would be the stop loss (-28 ticks), and the profit target is +100 ticks.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa70fcbf0e58_2010-02-106E2.thumb.jpg.30f1a2f720ad4cfaf3bcdf554095f33b.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
For example, should entry trigger without price trading higher than the level shown by the red line here, that would be the stop loss (-28 ticks), and the profit target is +100 ticks.

 

Initial stop was -34 ticks, current stop is +29 ticks, profit target is +100 ticks. So, worst case on this trade is a profit a shade under 1R.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=19115&stc=1&d=1265818216

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa70fcc0e52a_2010-02-106E6.thumb.jpg.6206553576d1a7eaafe42faa0a9dd217.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
G/U possible reversal setup in previous bed of support.

 

Dropping down to m1 to show what I'm thinking with this one at the moment.

 

Price has now made 2 unsuccessful attempts at breaking through 5607, so I've moved my stop up to the last swing low (+ a few pips), the dotted red line on my chart.

GU1002b.thumb.jpg.b3cb88e216e172a52aae734448fcace1.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Dropping down to m1 to show what I'm thinking with this one at the moment.

 

Price has now made 2 unsuccessful attempts at breaking through 5607, so I've moved my stop up to the last swing low (+ a few pips), the dotted red line on my chart.

 

Well the '+ a few pips' kept me in before price made new highs, then I moved my stop up too tight as it offered another low temptingly close to my entry point. Needless to say I got stopped out to the tick before price went on to higher highs again. -1pip or 0.03R :crap:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
...I am up 12.26R for the month.

 

...-1pip or 0.03R

 

I just want to say that I really like the use of #.##R (vs ticks or % return or $$). A while ago, I made the post attached below, about how neither ticks nor % return really mean much in isolation (as far as gauging performance)...so how do you measure performance?...by ##R! (that hadn't occurred to be back then) :)

 

I just had a realization while thinking about leverage, etc. It doesn't necessarily matter how many ticks you make because 15 ticks can equal 50 ticks in terms of $$, provided that you are managing your risk per trade as a % of account equity.

 

On the same token, it doesn't necessarily make sense to measure performance on how much $$ you make, because that can just be manipulated by position sizing.

Edited by Cory2679

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I just want to say that I really like the use of #.##R (vs ticks or % return or $$). A while ago, I made the post attached below, about how neither ticks nor % return really mean much in isolation (as far as gauging performance)...so how do you measure performance?...by ##R! (that hadn't occurred to be back then) :)

 

The purpose of the Van Tharp readings were to try to influence the direction of the thread towards money management and viewing one's performance through the lens of Units of Risk or R-multiples. Those readings, unfortunately, though perhaps not surprisingly, were among the least popular of the Weekend Readings (rating as low as the Elliot Wave stuff!).

Of course, it makes sense that the most important element of trading successis the one that folks least wish to examine.

 

For example, most folks wish to avoid losses. As a result, a favorite metric of the uninitiated is the win/loss ratio, or the winning percentage. Winning percentage means nothing outside of the context of a trader's R status. Yesterday I gave the example of one trader with a 1.4 avg R and a 60% winning percentage compared to a trader with a 6R avg win and only a 33% winning percentage. Who would you rather be? Well, measured by nominal $'s won, you'd want to be the trader with the 6R average, even if it meant most of your trades would be losses.

 

As of today, (I am done 'til Tokyo, anyway) I am up +16.13R for the first 8 trading days of February. My largest win this month was 5.06R, my largest loss was 1.06R (commissions and slippage don't you know). My avg R actually slipped a hair today to 1.42, down from 1.44 yesterday. My average loss for the month dropped, interestingly enough, from about .73R to .64R after today and my winning percentage today was just over 50%, but I added 3.87R to my MTD profits. Not a bad day, if I say so myself, but I over traded like crazy, everything turning into a scalp.

 

Also, for those who think I have special powers, looking back over the month, I see that at one point last week I had a draw down of -3.87 R, which is nearly the equivalent of four consecutive full-on stops. It happens. You just keep taking your swings, and eventually the ship rights itself. By "right itself," I do not mean that I was doing anything wrong and that I had to change to get things right. I was fine. I did everything right during that draw down. More importantly, I did everything right since that draw down. You cannot let yourself worry about a bad trade, a bad day, or even a bad week. If you get to the end of the month, however, and things are bad, then it is time to stop, re-evaluate, paper trade, diagnose, etc.

 

By focusing on money management and risk, you will be able to identify and isolate any problems quickly.

 

There is no other way to trade for infinite yield while avoiding ruin other than to focus upon your RISK and a money management approach that wishes to avoid RISK and its pernicious effects as much as possible. An R unit of my futures account is 2% of equity, which means I double my account at 50R. It took me years to double my first account. Let me tell you how much more manageable a task that is if you have proper money management.

 

One last thought on this for now: If you are interested in reading about a trader who really understands risk and knows how to manage it, read the Larry Hite's interview in Market Wizards.

 

If you haven't read the Tharp articles, search the thread and read them. I've said it here before and i will say it again - position sizing is the closest thing to the Holy Grail of trading as you are likely to find.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Probed the near-term R once again before a large sell-off. Immediate trend remains intact. Has dropped deeply into the support area putting me in a position where I am not very sure if it will hold or not. I'm not game enough to do any serious longs in this support area and also not game enough to do any serious shorting unless we break this low from 3 days ago. In a bit of no mans land for me. Will look for obvious scalps predominantly or possibly some light shorts testing the low before yesterdays spike high in the 1.5660 area.

MK_02_2010-02-11.thumb.png.dd9109efba7c860e55ff218dce955850.png

MK_03_2010-02-11.thumb.png.45abaa56639a9f12f9aed7512f0b3c9d.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
...Yesterday I gave the example of one trader with a 1.4 avg R and a 60% winning percentage compared to a trader with a 6R avg win and only a 33% winning percentage. Who would you rather be? Well, measured by nominal $'s won, you'd want to be the trader with the 6R average, even if it meant most of your trades would be losses....

 

I honestly couldn't say which trader I would rather be without knowing the frequency. To really assess which is better one needs to know the frequency. Your 6R example may only do a handful of trades a month but the 1.4R guy may do a handful a day. Who would you rather be? I'd pick the 1.4R guy! :)

 

With kind regards,

MK

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Looking at the Dow daily, I was somewhat surprised to find a pattern not unlike what is commonly referred to as a bull flag ...

 

Nothing has changed ... small decline off yesterday's close, on diminishing volume. A quick look around the 'net and seems like everywhere no matter what the Dow does, the interpretation is that there is more down trending to come. Maybe. But as MidK says, there are two sides of any coin, and right now, the coin is balanced on its edge. It will fall, but right now, I see no reason why it must come up Bears rather than Bulls. It seems to me it can go either way at this point.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=19132&stc=1&d=1265850399

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa70fcc620c8_2010-02-10DJ-301.thumb.jpg.c31fb1e37ddb1c15f1d90f380bd2ab0e.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The dollar did not make new uptrend highs, nor did the Euro make new downtrend lows. It looks, at the very least, that the correction of the prevailing trends that was suspected a few days ago is indeed occurring...

 

However, another possibility is that the rally off the November 2009 low was itself a correction against the larger down trend off the March 2009 high, and that the down trend is ready to resume. ...

I would expect Euro strength, dollar weakness over the coming days/weeks.

 

No change with the US Dollar either ... If the dollar continues to a new high, then I think he odds favor that the recent uptrend does represent a change in the Dollar's intermediate to long term prospects. This new uptrend high could occur tomorrow, or after a deeper correction of the recent rally. Should a correction break and hold below 76.60, then the odds increase that the recent rally was itself counter trend, and the down trend may be resuming.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=19133&stc=1&d=1265853715

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa70fcc67059_2010-02-10DXYO1.thumb.jpg.e5a7cfd38b03ae0a83a461b3238c5f60.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EUR/USD Long possible

Triggered already

 

Modified start triggered and stopped.

 

At the end of this week, I'll know whether the start with pullback is useful for EUR/USD.

 

Original start stopped.

tl-01.thumb.png.69c0eace414ef610e24314cb4ec90090.png

tl-03.thumb.png.6dd68086e5e230a4bd7a64b407cc1eb0.png

Edited by Marko23
Original stop

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
EUR/USD Short triggered

 

At break even

 

Trade closed at 2R, slow progress.

 

Trailing stop better than 2R

 

Trailing stop hit, insignificant improvement

 

MFE 5R

tl-12.thumb.png.026a8c36c1e7c44fc353cf6452b834ce.png

tl-15.thumb.png.6ae7a28f16a65251929c28f7f9cf33e2.png

tl-17.thumb.png.2d8276a785bf87d856b15f3d118fa6ef.png

tl-18.thumb.png.711aadb0849311965f371101c5ce36f9.png

Edited by Marko23
Update

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Why not to simply connect you account to myfxbook which will collect all this data automatically for you? The process you described looks tedious and a bit obsolete but may work for you though.
    • The big breakthrough with AI right now is “natural language computing.”   Meaning, you can speak in natural language to a computer and it can go through huge data sets, make sense out of them, and speak back to you in natural language.   That alone is a huge breakthrough.   The next leg? AI agents. Where they don’t just speak back to you.   They take action. Here’s the definition I like best: an AI agent is an autonomous system that uses tools, memory, and context to accomplish goals that require multiple steps.   Everything from simple tasks (analyzing web traffic) to more complex goals (building executive briefings or optimizing websites).   They can:   > Reason across multiple steps.   >Use tools like a real assistant (Excel spreadsheets, budgeting apps, search engines, etc.)   > Remember things.   And AI agents are not islands. They talk to other agents.   They can collaborate. Specialized agents that excel at narrow tasks can communicate and amplify one another’s strengths—whether it’s reasoning, data processing, or real-time monitoring.   What it Looks Like You wake up one morning, drink your coffee, and tell your AI agent, “I need to save $500 a month.”   It gets to work.   First, it finds all your recurring subscriptions. Turns out you’re paying $8.99 for a streaming service you forgot you had.   It cancels it. Then it calls your internet provider, negotiates a lower bill, and saves you another $40. Finally, it finds you car insurance that’s $200 cheaper per year.   What used to take you hours—digging through statements, talking to customer service reps on hold for an hour, comparing plans—is done while you’re scrolling Twitter.   Another example: one agent tracks your home maintenance needs and gets information from a local weather-monitoring agent. Result: "Rain forecast next week - should we schedule gutter cleaning now?"   Another: an AI agent will plan your vacations (“Book me a week in Italy for under $2,000”), find the cheapest flights, and sort out hotels with a view.   It’ll remind you to pay bills, schedule doctor’s appointments, and track expenses so you’re not wondering where your paycheck went every month.   The old world gave you tools—Excel spreadsheets, search engines, budgeting apps. The new world gives you agents who do the work for you.   Don’t Get Too Scared (or Excited) Yet William Gibson famously said: "The future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed."   AI agents will distribute it. For decades, the tools that billionaires and corporations used to get ahead—personal assistants, financial advisors, lawyers—were out of reach for regular people.   AI agents could change that.   BUT, remember…   We’re in inning one.   AI agents have a ways to go.   They’re imperfect. They mess up. They need more defenses to get ready for prime time.   To be sure, AI is powerful, but it’s not a miracle worker. It’s great at helping humans solve problems, but it’s not going to replace all jobs overnight.   Instead of fearing AI, think of it as a tool to A.] save you time on boring stuff and B.] amplify what you’re already good at. Right now is the BEST time to start experimenting. It’s also the best time to find investments that will “make AI work for you”. Author: Chris Campbell (AltucherConfidential)   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/     
    • What a wild year.   AI seems to be appearing everywhere you look, Paris hosted a weird Olympics, unrest continues in the Middle East, the US endured a crazy-heated election, and the largest rocket ever to fly successfully landed in a giant pair of robot arms.   Okay, but what about the $money stuff?   Well, this year we've seen a load of uncertainty - inflation is still biting and many businesses have gone down.   Property has been very fractured, with developments becoming prohibitively expensive, while other markets have boomed.   It hasn't been an easy ride, that's for sure.   However, the stock market has had some outstanding results, and for those who know how to trade, some have done VERY well for themselves.   Some have replaced their incomes. Some have set themselves up for the rest of their days on this planet.   How about you? How did you go? Author: Louise Bedford    Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/  
    • U Unity Software stock watch, attempting to move higher off the 22.4 triple+ support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?U  
    • TSSI TSS stock, watch for an ascending triangle breakout above 11.49, target 15 area at https://stockconsultant.com/?TSSI
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.