Reading Charts in Real Time

[MidKnight 12]

Wooops, my bad Thales. Anyway, I have an alibi as I was counting sheep, just ask 'baaa baa'!

 

Major and immediate trends for me remain down. The lower edge of the near-term R offered nice rejection showing to me that sellers are still very eager, but it dropped back down into the developing S zone (deeply though). Plan remains the same as yesterday pretty much. Shorts in the first zone but I want it above PDH unless it is extremely obvious. If get above PDH can be more aggressive with entries and scale-out in 1/4ths. Longs need to be on a capitulative move preferrably into the 1.54/52 area, should that happen I'll scale out in 1/3rds. Anything else needs to be very obvious and is all in/out style. Focusing on the edges of this range, absolutely nothing in the middle!

Edited February 8, 2010 by MidKnight

[Cory2679 11]

Potential GU long...

[thalestrader 14]

The dollar rallied to 80.68 today, putting into the lower half of the 80.40-82 target range for this rally leg. It had closed at 79.92 yesterday. The dollar selling/euro buying at the end of the day may be the beginning of a somewhat larger correction to this dollar rally than we've seen thus far, though I am always somewhat hesitant to read too much into last hour of the last of the week activity.

 

If a larger correction is in the offing, I'd be looking for 78.45 down to 76.60 as a target range (not shown with trend lines, but basically the 12/22 high and 1/13 low).

 

 

Rather than continue a correction against the current uptrend, the buck consolidated its gains at/near the higs of this rally off the November low. Should the dollar make a higher high (EURUSD lower low) I'd expect the dollar index to make a play for the next target, wihich is in the vicinity of 82.00. With respect to the 6e, I will be looking for potential shorts, with possible trend down day implications over the coming day(s).

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Current look at the 6B ...

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Current look at the 6B ...

 

Short at 1.5592, stop loss at 1.5608, target to be determined ... If I'm not stopped out between now and breakfast, we'll see where we are in the morning.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[patrader 10]

15m 6E chart

[patrader 10]

15m 6E chart

[Marko23 10]

Hi folks,

 

during this week I'll experiment with a modified setup.

I want to start after the breakout bar is finished.

 

Stopped at -1.1R.

Trade was deliberately taken against the trend.

Edited February 9, 2010 by Marko23

[Marko23 10]

EUR/USD trend continuation

 

Did not trigger

Edited February 9, 2010 by Marko23

[Marko23 10]

EUR/USD Short possibility

Triggered

Stop at +0.5R

 

Out at 2.5R, MFE 3.2R

Edited February 9, 2010 by Marko23

[Marko23 10]

No trigger from the modified setup!

 

The original Thales setup did trigger for +4.4R .

Edited February 9, 2010 by Marko23

[thalestrader 14]

during this week I'll experiment with a modified setup.

I want to start after the breakout bar is finished....

 

Hi Marko,

 

I want to make sure I understand what you are doing with the modified entry. You are waiting for the trade to trigger as usual, and then you are entering on a limit order placed at he 50% retracement of that particular bar, +1 tick, and by one tick, you mean on the breakout side of the breakout bar?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Marko23 10]

Hi Marko,

 

I want to make sure I understand what you are doing with the modified entry. You are waiting for the trade to trigger as usual, and then you are entering on a limit order placed at he 50% retracement of that particular bar, +1 tick, and by one tick, you mean on the breakout side of the breakout bar?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

I want to start after a pullback of 50% of the breakout bar and place the stop 1 tick below the low of the breakout bar for a Long.

 

The last example with EUR/USD shows how perfectly that approach can fail!

[mblack246 10]

Short GU following failure to break higher (LH/double top).

[thalestrader 14]

I want to start after a pullback of 50% of the breakout bar and place the stop 1 tick below the low of the breakout bar for a Long.

 

The last example with EUR/USD shows how perfectly that approach can fail!

 

Hi Marko,

 

I still do not think I am following you, and I apologize for being thick-headed this morning.

 

Here is my chart showing that my entry on that long would have been 1.3711. Where would you have placed your entry order?

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Current look at the 6E/EURUSD ...

 

 

I was expecting one more attempt at a high/higher high, but it is what it is. We could still get a higher high, but that's what the stop loss is there for to protect us.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Marko23 10]

Hi Marko,

 

I still do not think I am following you, and I apologize for being thick-headed this morning.

 

Here is my chart showing that my entry on that long would have been 1.3711. Where would you have placed your entry order?

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

The breakout bar is 1.3700 ... 1.3713. The limit order was at 1.3707 after the breakout bar completed. The order was not filled, there was no pullback.

 

1.3707 = 1.3700 + 50%(1.3713 - 1.3700)

 

The stop was at 1.3699 = 1.3700 - 0.0001

[Cory2679 11]

Potential EUR/JPY long IF we can break that high...?

[thalestrader 14]

Potential EUR/JPY long IF we can break that high...?

 

Did you see the short? An opportunity very much similar to the EURUSD posted above.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

Did you see the short? An opportunity very much similar to the EURUSD posted above.

 

Nope...too focused on the potential long...

[Marko23 10]

Hi Marko,

...

I apologize for being thick-headed this morning.

...

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Not your fault, perhaps my weird thinking and/or English. The modified setup has been tested with Bund (FGBL) with good results. It may not perform with EUR/USD because it needs a pullback to trigger.

[Cory2679 11]

Nope...too focused on the potential long...

 

It's funny...I had my intial stop-loss where the short entry would be...and of course, after price broke that, I was thinking 'oh man, looks like it's going lower'...but it didn't occur to me to go short. :doh:

 

I'm not sure if you have run across this or not in the past.

 

One solution to this problem is to attempt to take the other side. If looking for a short attempt to build the case for a long. Because your mind is designed with a bias to confirm your current idea this is a useful step.

 

Thanks, Kiwi! I like that a lot! Very helpful.

 

-Cory

 

[thalestrader 14]

Current look at Crude shows it to be again at what should be a critical juncture, as it vacillates on either side ot the 72.4x level...could go either way, but whichever way it decides, it should trend away from that level ...

 

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Nope...too focused on the potential long...

 

Sort of like yesterday, only different ...

 

Reminds me of a very good post that Kiwi made here some time ago. When you are looking at a short, ask yourself what would have to occur for you to change your mind and go long. If looking to go long, what is the case for a short? You might find that this little exercise, as a sort of "pre-flight" check when you are looking at an opportunity, might help you in these situations.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

Sort of like yesterday, only different ...

 

Reminds me of a very good post that Kiwi made here some time ago. When you are looking at a short, ask yourself what would have to occur for you to change your mind and go long. If looking to go long, what is the case for a short? You might find that this little exercise, as a sort of "pre-flight" check when you are looking at an opportunity, might help you in these situations.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Beat ya to it! (Check out my edited post.)