Reading Charts in Real Time

[Cory2679 11]

Well, I actually posted my plan here, on the P/L thread, for anyone who's interested.

 

As far as this thread is concerned...

 

Slight change of plans...

 

Cory2679's Log

 

 

From the log, concerning this thread...

 

I plan to use this thread to post all of my trades from each day, after the day is over...

 

...I will continue to post real-time charts over at the Reading Charts in Real Time thread, but only when it's convenient and doesn't hinder my trading in any way...

Edited February 5, 2010 by Cory2679

[Mr_black 10]

possible trend change long setup

[patrader 10]

CL Daily chart(three pushes into support)

[Mr_black 10]

possible trend change long setup

long on support

[Mr_black 10]

long on support

my targets if target 1 is hit will move remaining order to B/E

[Mr_black 10]

my targets if target 1 is hit will move remaining order to B/E

stop is hit

[daedalus 10]

Can't win 'em all Mr. Black. Thanks for sharing your trade idea!

[MidKnight 12]

I believe the points I would emphasize are these:

 

1) Be aware of the size of the swings you are using to get into the market. The ensuing moves, i.e. what you can reasonably expect by way of maximum favorable excursion (MFE) for the trade will be in proportion to those swings. Do not enter a short sequence visible on a 5 minute chart and expect profits the size you would expect on a similar sequence visible on a 60 minute chart.

 

2) If you are using a smaller degree to "anticipate" a higher degree break out, then accept that any profit may disappear to a loss if the larger degree breakout fails to materialize.

 

3) If you are taking a breakout of a sequence visible on a 15 minute chart, do not manage trailing stops on a lower degree, with the exception that if a lower degree adverse reversal appears soon after entry, and with very little MFE, then use the small degree to exit, but have a plan to re-enter in the original direction if the larger degree move you anticipated re-asserts itself.

 

If there were something else I had said to which you are referring, you will need to find the post. I remember the discussion, and I think I even remember the charts I used (6E/EURUSD at a double top discussing two back to back short sequences and showing various degrees of swing), but I do not remember where the post is. This has become quite a large thread, and at some point, I do intend to perhaps move/reiterate certain points either in a thread of their own, or utilizing TL's blog features to make it easier for us to reference the material.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Thanks for the reply Thales. My query was really in relation to point #2 above. I am trying to enter trade ideas from the 60m or 240m charts as I generally can get a pretty good read on where opportunity will be, so it comes down to an order execution and management exercise after that. Trying to use a smaller degree to lower my risk and manage the initial trade. Figuring out how to manage the trade is proving to be 90% of the effort

 

With kind regards,

MK

[thalestrader 14]

Figuring out how to manage the trade is proving to be 90% of the effort

 

It is managing the trade where our emotions are most inflamed. Tough stuff, MidK.

 

I have a friend who back tested a "random entry" approach and found that with a volatility based trailing stop, random entry had positive expectancy. So basically waking up, flipping a coin, and trailing a stop is all we need. If only it were that easy, right?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Would you be concerned at all about the 67 area acting as R? I only ask because I personally will be looking for shorts around there.

 

1059-1069 is really a thick R-zone, wouldn't you say? I wasn't trading that long there (I hope I didn't mislead anyone), and my post was meant as a "thought experiment" more than anything else.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Current view of the US Dollar index shows that the Buck cleared nearby reistance easily. Next stop is the area between 80.40 and 82.00 (I could try to pick a tick, but why bother). I did not trade today other than a small loss on an ES long. My guess, if guesses are allowed, is that the long dollar, long Yen, short the world has a day or two more before a pause.

 

The dollar rallied to 80.68 today, putting into the lower half of the 80.40-82 target range for this rally leg. It had closed at 79.92 yesterday. The dollar selling/euro buying at the end of the day may be the beginning of a somewhat larger correction to this dollar rally than we've seen thus far, though I am always somewhat hesotant to read too much into last hour of the last of the week activity.

 

If a larger correction is in the offing, I'd be looking for 78.45 down to 76.60 as a target range (not shown with trend lines, but basically the 12/22 high and 1/13 low).

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

There are several people to whose writings I return again and again. One of those folks, you may have guessed, is Linda Raschke. My most recent re-reading of her materials this past week have surprised me by how very much my own trading has been influenced by her. In fact, her influence ma outweigh all of those to whom I have given so much more credit. Here is yet another essay of hers that desrves to be copied, pasted, printed, read, and re-read.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

The Mental Aspect of Trading

by Linda Bradford Raschke

 

Many traders quickly come to acknowledge that despite being familiar with winning strategies, systems, and money management techniques, trading success is dependent on your psychological state of mind. If you're a trader just starting out, where do you find the initial confidence to pull the trigger? How do you deal with the down times without digging yourself deeper into the hole? If you are in a hole, how do you work your way back out? How do experienced traders push through the ceiling of profitability that caps their initial trading years and make a truly fabulous living?

 

Trading is a performance-oriented discipline. Stress and mental pressures can affect your ability to function and impact your bottom line. Much of what has been learned about achieving peak performance in both business and sports can be applied to trading. But before looking at some of these factors, let's first examine the ways that trading differs from other businesses.

 

1. Intellect has nothing to do with your ability as a trader. Success is not a function of how smart you are or how much you have applied yourself academically. This is hard to accept in a society that puts a premium on intellect.

2. There is no customer or client good will built up each day in your business. Customer relationships, traditionally important in American businesses, have little to do with a trader's profitability. Each day is a clean slate.

3. The traditionally 8-5 work ethic doesn't apply in this business! A trader could sit in front of a screen all day waiting for a recognizable pattern to occur and have nothing happen. There is a temptation to take marginal trades just so a trader can feel like he's doing something. There's also the dilemma of putting in constant hours of research, having nothing to show for it, and not getting paid for the work done. Yet if a trader works too hard, he risks burn- out. And what about those months where 19 out of 20 days are profitable, but the trader gives it all back in one or two bad days? How can a trader account for his productivity in these situations?

4. If you were to invest time, energy, and emotion into developing a business venture and backed out at the last minute, it would be considered a failure. However, you should be able to invest time and energy into researching a trading idea, and yet still be able to change your mind at the last minute. Market conditions change, and we cannot be expected to predict all the variables with foresight. Getting out of a bad trade with only a small loss should be considered a big success!

What IS the definition of a successful trader? He should feel good about himself and enjoy playing the game. You can make a few small trades a year as a hobby, generate some very modest profits, and be quite successful because you had fun. There are also aggressive traders who have had big years, but ultimately blow-out, ruin their health or lead miserable lives from all the stress they put themselves under.

 

Principles of Peak Performance

The first principle of peak performance is to put fun and passion first. Get the performance pressures out of your head. Forget about statistics, percentage returns, win/loss ratios, etc. Floor-traders scratch dozens of trades during the course of a day, but all that matters is whether they're up at the end of the month.

 

Don't think about TRYING to win the game - that goes for any sport or performance-oriented discipline. Stay involved in the process, the technique, the moment, the proverbial here and now.! A trader must concentrate on the present price action of the market. A good analogy is a professional tennis player who focuses only on the point at hand. He'll probably lose half the points he plays, but he doesn't allow himself to worry about whether or not he's down a set. He must have confidence that by concentrating on the techniques he's worked on in practice, the strengths in his game will prevail and he will be able to outlast his opponent.

 

The second principle of peak performance is confidence. in yourself, your methodology, and your ability to succeed. Some people are naturally born confident. Other people are able to translate success from another area in their life. Perhaps they were good in sports, music, or academics growing up. There's also the old-fashioned "hard work" way of getting confidence. Begin by researching and developing different systems or methodologies. Put in the hours of backtesting. Tweak and modify the systems so as to make them your own. Study the charts until you've memorized every significant swing high or low. Self-confidence comes from developing a methodology that YOU believe in.

 

Concentrate on the technical conditions. Have a clear game plan. Don't listen to CNBC, your broker, or a friend. You must do your own analysis and have confidence in your game plan to be a successful trader.

 

Analyze the markets when they are closed. Your job during the day is to monitor markets, execute trades and manage positions. Traders should be like fighter pilots - make quick decisions and have quick reflexes. Their plan of attack is already predetermined, yet they must be ready to abort their mission at any stage of the game.

 

Just as you should put winning out of your mind, so should you put losing out of your mind - quickly. A bad trade doesn't mean you've blown your day. Get rid of the problem quickly and start making the money back. It's like cheating on a diet. You can't undo the damage that's been done. However, it doesn't mean you've blown your whole diet. Get back on track and you'll do fine.

 

For that matter, the better you are able to eliminate emotions from your day, the better off you will be. A certain amount of detachment adds a healthy dose of objectivity.

 

Trading is a great business because the markets close at the end of the day (at least some of them). This gives you a zero point from which to begin the next day - a clean slate. Each day is a new day. Forget about how you did the week before. What counts is how you do today!

 

Sometimes what will happen during the day comes down to knowing yourself. Are you relaxed or distracted? Are you prepared or not? If you can't trade that day, don't! - and don't overanalyze the reasons why or why not. Is psychoanalyzing your childhood going to help your trading? Nonsense!

 

The third important ingredient for achieving peak performance is attitude. Attitude is how you deal with the inevitable adverse situations that occur in the markets. Attitude is also how you handle the daily grind, the constant 2 steps forward and 2 steps back. Every professional has gone through long flat times. Slumps are inevitable for it's impossible to stay on top of your game 100% of the time. Once you've dug yourself out of a hole, no matter how long it takes, you know that you can do it again. If you've done something once, it is a repeatable act. That knowledge is a powerful weapon and can make you a much stronger trader.

 

Good trades don't always work out. A good trade is one that has the probabilities in its favor, but that doesn't mean that it will always work out. People who have a background in game theory understand this well. The statistics are only meaningful when looking at a string of numbers. For example, in professional football, not every play is going to gain yardage. What percentage of games do you need to win in order to make the playoffs? It's a number much smaller than most of us are willing to accept in our own win/loss ratios!

 

Here is an interesting question: should you look at a trade logically or psychologically? In other words, should every trade stand on its own merits? Theoretically, yes, but in real life it doesn't always work that way. A trader is likely to manage a position differently depending on whether the previous trade was a winner or a loser.

 

How does one know when to take profits on a good trade? You must ask yourself first how greedy do you want to be, or, how much money do you want to make? And also, does your pattern have a "perceived profit" or objective level? Why is it that we hear successful winning traders complain far more about getting out of good trades too soon than not getting out of bad trades soon enough? There's an old expression: "Profits are like eels, they slip away."

 

Successful traders are very defensive of their capital. They are far more likely to exit a trade that doesn't work right away than to give it the benefit of the doubt. The best trades work right away!

 

OK. Realistically, every trader has made a stubborn, big losing trade. What do you do if you're really caught in a pickle? The first thing is to offer a "prayer to the Gods". This means, immediately get rid of half your position. Cut down the size. Right off the bat you are taking action instead of freezing up. You are reducing your risk, and you have shifted the psychological balance to a win-win situation. If the market turns around, you still have part of your position on. If it continues against you, your loss will be more manageable. Usually, you will find that you wished you exited the whole position on the first order, but not everyone is able to do this.

 

At an annual Market Technician's conference, a famous trader was speaking and someone in the audience asked him what he did when he had terrible losing trades. He replied that when his stomach began to hurt, he'd "puke them at the lows along with everyone else." The point is, everyone makes mistakes but sooner or later you're going to have to exit that nasty losing position.

 

"Feel good" trades help get one back in the game. It's nice to start the day with a winning scalp. It tends to give you more breathing room on the next trade. The day's psychology is shifted in your favor right away. This is also why it's so important to get rid of losing trades the day before. so you don't have to deal with them first thing in the morning. This is usually when the choice opportunity is and you want to be ready to take advantage of it.

 

A small profitable scalp is the easiest trade to make. The whole secret is to get in and get out of the market as quickly as possible. Enter in the direction of the market's last thrust or impulse. The shorter the period of time you are is the marketplace, the easier it is to make a winning trade. Of course, this strategy of making a small scalp is not substantial enough to make a living, but remember the object is to start the day out on the right foot.

 

If you are following a methodology consistently (key word), and making money, how do you make more money? You must build up the number of units traded without increasing the leverage. In other words, don't try going for the bigger trade, instead, trade more contracts. It just takes awhile to build up your account or the amount of capital under management. Proper leverage can be the key to your success and longevity in this business. Most traders who run into trouble have too big a trade on. Size influences your objectivity. Your main object should be to stay in the game.

 

Most people react differently when they're under pressure. They tend to be more emotional or reactive. They tense up and judgement is often impaired. Many talented athletes can't cut it because they choke when the pressure's on. You could be a brilliant analyst but a lousy trader. Consistency is far more important than brilliance. Just strive for consistency in what you do and let go of the performance expectations.

Master the Game

The last key to achieving mental mastery over the game is believing that you can actually do it. Everyone is capable of being a successful trader if they truly believe they can be. You must believe in the power of belief. If you're a recluse skeptic or self-doubter, begin by pretending to believe you can make it. Keep telling yourself that you'll make it even if it takes you five years. If a person's will is strong enough, they will always find a way.

 

If you admit to yourself that you truly don't have the will to win at this game, don't try to trade. It is too easy to lose too much money. Many people think that they'll enjoy trading when they really don't. It's boring at times, lonely during the day, mentally trying, with little structure or security. The markets are not a logical or fair playing ground. But there are numerous inefficiencies and patterns ready to be exploited, and there always will be.

 

[Mr_black 10]

Can't win 'em all Mr. Black. Thanks for sharing your trade idea!

It was my mistake to go contra trend ..... I was up $600 and finish for $96 net after that trade

[thalestrader 14]

Weekend Reading

 

Hi Folks,

 

What I believe should have become apparent to all over the course of this thread is the following: Whether you trade using the approach I use or your own variation of it, or you use an approach completely different, the key to success is not in the method selected, but in the trader him or herself to apply that method consistently.

 

I have tried, in these weekend readings, and the occasional extra articles and essays I share, to focus upon the emotional and mental aspects of trading, the discipline required to succeed, and the subject of money management, which will keep you alive long enough to see yourself through the learning period and beyond.

 

The three Raschke essays shared this week along with last weekend's readings moved me profoundly, both when I first read them years ago, and on my most recent reading as well. This week, I offer two readings, one an old friend, the other a new one (new to me, that is). I feel both to be hepful in moving one toward the understanding of this game and what one has to do and how one has to approach it in order to win.

 

The first is a little piece of an old Gann course called "How to Trade." I found it long ago. It is available all over the internet. It is a five page chapter that has some real pearls within it. I do not have his course. I do not know what he means when he refers to a "master forecasting chart." Disregard the strange, and focus on what strikes you as relevant to trading in general, especially as it has been discussed in this thread. The reason I share the Gann article has nothing to do with Gann's more esoteric teachings, but everything to do with his nuts and bolts, reall world approach to understanding the markets.

 

The second is a book I acquired this week. It is Mark Douglas's first book, The Disciplined Trader. For whatever reason, of al the books, articles, seminars, software, etc. and so that I consumed over the years, Douglas is one I had avoided. It was only the fact that Kiwi recommended him multiple times that I decided to take a look. I liked what I saw enough to make his Trading in the Zone a Weekend Reading installment several weeks ago. I have not yet finished this book, but I think it also a worthwhile read. I do not have a .pdf myself, but a quick google search turned up this link where you can download the entire book except for the index:

 

http://prismintraday.com/readings/Disciplined_Trader.pdf

 

I have attached the Gann article to this post.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Gann, W D How To Trade.pdf

Edited February 6, 2010 by thalestrader
typo

[thalestrader 14]

It was my mistake to go contra trend ..... I was up $600 and finish for $96 net after that trade

 

Would you still consider it to have been a mistake if instead of losing $504 you had won $504 on the trade?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[johnjohn1hew 10]

Something I just read and thought it quite relevant to the pursuit of all of us:

 

"And your doubt can become a good quality if you train it. It must become knowing,

it must become criticism. Ask it, whenever it wants to spoil something for you,

why something is ugly, demand proofs from it, test it, and you will find it

perhaps bewildered and embarrassed, perhaps also protesting. But don't give in,

insist on arguments, and act in this way, attentive and persistent, every single

time, and the day will come when instead of being a destroyer, it will become one

of your best workers - perhaps the most intelligent of all the ones that are

building your life." - Letters to a Young Poet

[jonbig04 10]

Weekend Reading

 

The second is a book I acquired this week. It is Mark Douglas's first book, The Disciplined Trader. For whatever reason, of al the books, articles, seminars, software, etc. and so that I consumed over the years, Douglas is one I had avoided. It was only the fact that Kiwi recommended him multiple times that I decided to take a look. I liked what I saw enough to make his Trading in the Zone a Weekend Reading installment several weeks ago. I have not yet finished this book, but I think it also a worthwhile read. I do not have a .pdf myself, but a quick google search turned up this link where you can download the entire book except for the index:

 

http://prismintraday.com/readings/Disciplined_Trader.pdf

 

I have attached the Gann article to this post.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

I read The Disciplined Trader just before I jumped into trading. I think it helped me quite a bit.

[thalestrader 14]

I read The Disciplined Trader just before I jumped into trading. I think it helped me quite a bit.

 

I can see how it could help someone starting out immensely if one was willing to believe what Douglas has to say.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

I have been wanting to share this interview with Dick Diamond here for some time, but the link I had had for it was dead, so for the longest time, I was unable to post it. I found a link to it today, so here it is (I am in no way responsible for the little 12 or so second forex advertisement you will hear before the interview proper begins):

 

Dick Diamond Interview

 

A few quick thoughts - Dick Diamond is a trader, and he does teach a seminar a few times each year. I have never taken his seminar. While I would like to meet him, I have no intention of paying him to do so. But, I have in the past spoken favorably of Mike Reed here at TL, and he is a former Dick Diamond student. I have shared a couple of essays by Rod Roth here in this thread in a weekend reading submission, and he is a former Dick Diamond student. I am acquainted with a couple of guys who likewise have taken his seminar. What is striking about his interview, and also about those who have taken his course, is the focus not on his set-ups, but on emotional discipline. I do not know what he teaches as far as set ups go. I do know that those who take his seminar come away with a solid and strict attachment to developing and maintaining a disciplined approach to trading.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

I found a Chris Terry interview at the same website I found the Dick Diamond interview. Chris Terry, you may recall, was the author of an article I posted here entitled "The Trading Game." He is a Linda Raschke student as well, and is employed by Linda's trading group.

 

Chris Terry Interview

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[jonbig04 10]

I can see how it could help someone starting out immensely if one was willing to believe what Douglas has to say.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

I did believe him, and I still do! Douglas ftw.

[Mr_black 10]

Would you still consider it to have been a mistake if instead of losing $504 you had won $504 on the trade?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

The odds are better when trading with trend .........

[elitejets 10]

Great weekend reading, Thanks!

If you have a spare hour I highly recommend this Mark Douglas video. It helped me a lot and if you haven't read his books you will see what its about.

 

4shared.com - online file sharing and storage - download Mark Douglas - Mind Over Market.flv

[thalestrader 14]

The odds are better when trading with trend .........

 

I agree. I was just curious as to whether or not you still would have considered the trade to have been a mistake if it had been profitable? My thinking concerning my own trading is this: I have many losing trades that I consider good trades. I have had a few trades that were profitable, though in hindsight I would say I had strayed from my discipline when I put the trade on. So for me, whether or not a trade is a mistake is not determined by whether I win or lose, but "how I played the game," so to speak.

 

Best WIshes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

...If you have a spare hour I highly recommend this Mark Douglas video...

 

Excellent contribution, elitejets, thank you for the share! I have to admit that the antennae of my BS Detector were buzzing when I first heard this was sponsored by Wizetrade. Wizetrade is one of those fancy software systems I managed not to purchase (one of the few, apparently) while I was working through my search for the Holy Grail. That I avoided it is likely due to the fact that by the time I became aware of the product, I was already past the point of falling for the "buy green sell red" pitch. I did plunk down a fair amount on Ablesys software, which is basically the same thing, only worse. Of all the junk I bought, Ablesys is without a doubt the junkiest product and the worst managed, least customer oriented company of the bunch. I still feel my blood pressure rise whenever I see them mentioned or run across their ubiquitous advertising. I should have realized that any company that needed to spend on advertising what Ablesys needs to do to maintain sales has got to be a junk. But I digress, let me get the train of thought back on track ...

 

Regarding the Douglas video: "A professional trader sees the entry and takes it. The professional does not worry about whether any particular trade will be a winner or a loser. The professional takes the entry, and has a plan to cut losses and a plan to take profits. The typical trader has no such plan."

 

Isn't that the truth!

 

I know that a few folks here for whom I have great respect disagree with my assertion that the aproach I use (short sequences/long sequences) is not itself an edge. I believe it is, though I am willing to concede that without proper money management, the edge would likely be greatly dulled. Poor money management can result from both poor stop selection as well as poor profit planning.

 

I do not know why I avoided Douglas for so long. I would guess the reason is similar to the reason why I was saved from being sucked into buying Wizetrade - by the time I became aware of Douglas, I was beyond a certain point at which I was looking for something new. I had settled into an approach, and did not want to risk being led astray by new ideas. So for quite some time I avoided anything with which I wasn't already familiar. Upon finally reading Douglas, on Kiwi's recommendation, I am pleased to say I do not find his ideas so much new to me as I find that they both reinforce views I myself have come to hold, and also he has helped clarify for me the extent to which these ideas contributed to my learning to control my own emotions. Not that I do not have room for improvement in this regard. Like Van Tharp says, if you stop working on yourself, you are doomed to failure.

 

Thank you, again, elitejets, for sharing this video with us. Had Douglas's work come to my attention in the beginning of my trading education I think I would have avoided a lot of pain that I experienced in ever widening attempts, ironically, to avoid pain, specifically, the pain of losing.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales