Reading Charts in Real Time

[Marko23 10]

That was fun.....instead going down and trigger short sale price made HH totally changing my view .... I went Long for + 32 YM points:)

 

If one puts value to the moving average, one had to plan for Long not for Short as you did in the previous post. The trend as indicated by the indicator was up.

 

Did you ignore the indicator in your previous post?

[Marko23 10]

For a short, the low tick after I am stopped in is a Low. Price then bounces from that Low and rallies 3-4 ticks above entry. That is a High. Price then comes down and retests the low. That is a Higher Low. I am out if price comes back up to make a Higher High. This usually all happens on the same "bar." Bars have nothing to do with it - Highs, Lows, Higher Highs and Higher Lows, Lower Lows and Lower Highs. I am very consistent.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Yes, but how do I find time to write a "Triggered" message to the thread and not loose context during that observation?

 

One more question: what is your "mental timescale" to discriminate between these inner extrema?

Prices flows, the tick chart is no solution to this question. For me, the mental timescale depends on average range of 15m bars..

Edited January 30, 2010 by Marko23
Question added

[Mr_black 10]

If one puts value to the moving average, one had to plan for Long not for Short as you did in the previous post. The trend as indicated by the indicator was up.

 

Did you ignore the indicator in your previous post?

MA's are lagging PA is leading ....you cannot trade the past you trade now and look the near future...in this sample first sign for trend change was HL >>>>HH trend change >>>>>PB(pullback) my entry>>>hh my exit

[Marko23 10]

MA's are lagging PA is leading ....you cannot trade the past you trade now and look the near future...in this sample first sign for trend change was HL >>>>HH trend change >>>>>PB(pullback) my entry>>>hh my exit

 

Thanks, I only wanted your confirmation that the moving average is redundant and can be misleading.

Edited January 30, 2010 by Marko23

[DugDug 10]

Thalestrader - also to any others who post- .please keep up the good work, as even if its not instantaneous real time, its close enough, the trolls etc unfortunately have done their job, and got you heated up.

The fact that people post information for FREE, and share knowledge is fantastic as it is. Nothing is sold.... in this heartless world of finance that we live in it makes one get all gooey.

I always figure these trolls just to be miserable psychopaths.... I laugh at them and their unhappy existence and think they are a waste of oxygen. Hopefully the moderators can do something.

 

Hell..... what is real time? if you are trading off a tick chart, then forget it....you dont have the time. I trade with discretion on a number of impulsive trades that have no rhyme or reason, its just sometimes along the line of "its in a downtrend, I'll just short it and look to buy it back a few ticks lower" - these are pointless to post as they are uneducational, and I dont have the time.

I can post some charts as I use 5mins to get myself into longer term trades, but I may not do many trades and most of them are losers.... not great for the ego posting these all the time, its bad enough loosing the money. And if I miss posting the start of the one winner out of 10, and then say "well I am riding a short AUDUSD", no one will believe me.

Its kind of a loose loose situation.

But so what..... I hope I will still post them here and at least show "What not to do" 9 times out of ten.

And if they are of no use then feel free to tell me to bugger off.

...............................

Also thanks for the heads up re the syntax for the posting of charts I will amend to make things easier to read the chart.

 

One other thing that could be of great help in the same regard is something of a help file that maybe ideally could be set up, that shows the ideal context to post charts, and the quick way to cut and paste or post a chart, as Marko says it kinda of distracts sometimes.

eg; I use Multicharts, but I cant seem to be able to paste direct to a reply here, i need to save the file, reload it etc;

If someone had a quicker faster way of doing it then great, and people could add to it for the various systems -

Unfortunately I have no real idea of how to do this in any easy form.:crap:

[thalestrader 14]

... but I think the problems initially had with Mr. Black's posts where this series I am showing below

 

I see no problem with this series of charts. I think it is quite apparent what is being communicated, don't you? Now, if someone were to post a random chart with no annotations and having nothing to do with the approach to trading price action we are pursuing here, then I could understand if you found fault with that poster. I have called a few posters out for just such a thing here since this thread began.

 

But my opinion of the series of charts posted by Mr. Black is this: You could print those out, hang them in your office, and look at them everyday before you trade, and you would be better prepared to identify the price action for which you are looking. That should be the ultimate criteria: Is the posted chart helpful to those learning to trade this approach? I think, in the case of Mr. Black's charts, the answer is an unequivocal yes.

 

Do you really think that he took the time to annotate his charts, snap a pic, log in to TL, find this thread, and post them to show off or to make others feel bad? Or does it make more sense to assume he was posting something that he thought represented a good example of how to apply this method and might therefore prove helpful to others?

 

I do not understand this notion that folks are somehow "cherry picking" winning trades to post. First of all, I have posted my share of losing trades. But what would I care with respect to this forum if every trade I posted resulted in a loss? Should I feel embarassed? Should Mr. Black feel embarrassed if he posts a losing trade? Marko? patrader? Why would any of us care whether the TL community knows we made a losing effort? Do you know us? Are you going to call us at home and harass us? Tease our children because daddy posted a losing effort?

 

I think many here would do him or herself a big favor if each would stop worrying about whether or not someone else posted a chart fast enough or whether or not someone else is demo trading, paper trading, and just taking notes, or trading live with real cash, and worry about where he or she wants to be and how he or she is going to get there. I suspect that hanging out in live trading chats with bitter naysayers is not conducive to getting to that place.

 

I know where I am. I know how I got here. It sucked. It took too darn long. I lost too much money. I spent too much on gurus and systems and software. Now, you can do it like I did and struggle and spend, or you could settle down, study this thread, and be glad for what has been shared here. If someone had put together this type of information and effort for me when I was starting out, my journey to the place where I am now would have been much quicker, easier, pleasant, and cost a whole lot less.

 

Let us not let our egos and the shriveled souls of the trolls ruin what is without a doubt the best trading thread in the best trading forum on the net.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

forrestang the reason for posting the small EUR/USD chart was to show the current trend , price was making LH, LL for past 4 day's You asked me a ? how to use 123 setup and here is the answer take 123's only with trend direction....

 

I thought your charts were both appropriate and instructive. You, Marko, and patrader have added a lot of value to this thread, and I hope each of you continue to participate no matter what anyone else has to say to or about us. Each of you post very few words, but your charts, in my opinion, speak loudly to any willing to listen.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Gabe2004 10]

I wanted to post right after the first fire exchange between the troll and Thales but figured that ignoring the troll would be the best option and it seemed to have worked for a while until Thales had a post on the rating issue.

As of this writing the rating has gone up to 4.76

May I ask you Thales why did you start this thread?

If the idea was to help others than you could stop at any time that you feel that your effort are not respected.

If it had some ego motives (to prove that you have made it) than I believe you have done that.

If it was to improve your trading than I hope it did eventhough it seems that your knowledge and experience far surpasses that of all the others here (those who demonstrated their knowledge that is).

 

Whatever the reason, one should respect this and any other thread.

 

Those who have noticed the little friction Thales and I encountered a while back will also notice that I am still here.

 

Anyone who puts in the extraordinary time required to maintain a thread - as Thales had - deserves at least some common courtesy.

Some people don't know the meaning of the word Courtesy. A thread moderator should take care of them but we should be careful where we draw the line.

 

I have proved in the past that I am not a brown noser but I would like to thank Thales for his time and sharing of his knowledge.

 

I hope that this thread will go back to its old self soon.

 

Gabe

[thalestrader 14]

Posting Live Trades in Real Time

 

As I look back over this week I find this a rather strong demand... Personally I feel a special disadvantage from posting: often it gets me out of "the flow"

 

I hear you Marko. We just shall do the best we can, and if it isn't good enough for some, let them move on, hopefully keeping their mouth shut as they scroll on by.

 

My grandmom used to say "the world is full of people to whom you give them all they could ask for on a silver platter, and still they b***ch that isn't gold." I think there are some who have no idea the Herculean effort it is to annotate a chart and post the pic all while trying to manage open positions and get orders off.

 

... but how do I find time to write a "Triggered" message to the thread and not loose context during that observation?

 

One more question: what is your "mental timescale" to discriminate between these inner extrema?

Prices flows, the tick chart is no solution to this question. For me, the mental timescale depends on average range of 15m bars..

 

I try to post the charts before the trade triggers. Often I get it posted well before the trade triggers. If it is a market I am actually trading, then I won't post the update until the initial skirmish at entry is over. Also, one of the benefits of using the line annotations (blue = entry, red = stop loss, green = profit targets) is that there is no obligation on my part to update the trade. Anyone who sees the very first pic - whether it was snapped before, at, or soon after entry, has all the information to follow along at home on his or her charts.

 

As far as the "mental time scale," I know exactly what you mean, but I have never thought consciously of it, and thus I never have tried to quantify it. I would say you that you and I are in sync in that the current visble range of the average 15 M bar is the crux of what governs these judgments. But how to explain it? I honestly do not know. Linda Raschke used to say that there are somethings that just come from experience.

 

I remember one interview or article where she gave the following example: Her husband was a baseball player, and when they would watch a game, he would often say things like "watch this ... he's going to throw the next pitch low and inside." And sure enough, that is what the pitcher did. Her husband could not put into words how he knew that that was the next pitch. He just had played and studied the game for so long and with such intensity, that he could recognize these "set ups." Is it not the same for us traders? she asked. And of course, the answer is yes.

 

Recall also Tom Baldwin's interview in Market Wizards, where he basically says that if you last long enough on the Pit floor, you will pick it up. Its like any other job or skill. SOme may pick it up better than you, and others will not do it as well. But if you do it long enough, you will achieve whatever proficiency your particular ability will allow.

 

So this mental timescale you mention is likely one of those things that you pick up through long observation. Of course, until you get the basics of the game, you will not get to the level at which you internalize your observations and unconsciouly convert those observations to judgements. It is an interesting concept, thanks for introducing it.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Marko23 10]

...

I try to post the charts before the trade triggers. ...

 

That is a good compromise. There may be false alarms but nobody knows the future.

 

Thanks for your time to find the examples. They make it clearer for me.

I have this strange habit to scrutinize what was going on within my head while I was trading. That does not always help...

Edited January 30, 2010 by Marko23

[thalestrader 14]

May I ask you Thales why did you start this thread?

 

Hi Folks,

 

I thought it would be interesting if we had a thread where we could all post charts of potential price moves in real time ... The purpose would be for us to learn from one another how to recognize these opportunities in real time.

 

I just thought it would be a good idea for a thread. I am always interested in seeing how others make trading decisions on a live market, so why not try to induce some folks to share their chops. I have certainly learned a lot about what I do and how I do it through the interaction with the folks in this thread. In fact, I have discovered more than I would ever have anticipated. I have always been a disciple of the Socratic knowledge of ignorance that the first step in being able to learn is to acknowledge that you do not know. It turns out I did not know even more than I thought I did not know!

 

Ego? I had and have nothing to prove. After all, who am I? There are only two folks here at TL who know who I really am, and I know they won't divulge my identity. So how would ego have anything to do with it?

 

I've said from the very first I had nothing to sell. As you said, I could log off TL and never come back, and I would leave owing no one anything. My goodness! Could you imagine being on the hook to guys like you and MidK and Forrest if I had accepted a payment for what I share? No offense, but you guys can be rather demanding, don't you think? But that's ok, because I choose to continue. And someday, I will choose to disappear. I have no interest in being beholden to anyone other than my family and myself. If I couldn't do what I do, then I'd be happy to sell you $5000/month "coaching" or "mentoring" services - don't laugh - I've had pm's offering to pay me for "mentoring." Thankfully, I do not need to do enlist myself in such indentured servitude I do have one student now, and when her sister and brother are old enough, we will have a full enrollment of three students, and each are on full scholarship. Enrollment is therefore closed.

 

I hope that this thread will go back to its old self soon.

 

We're already there, and better than ever!

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Marko23 10]

I just thought it would be a good idea for a thread. I am always interested in seeing how others make trading decisions on a live market, so why not try to induce some folks to share their chops. I have certainly learned a lot about what I do and how I do it through the interaction with the folks in this thread. ...

 

We're already there, and better than ever!

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Thanks for the optimistic attitude I can find here.

Ways better than any German thread I could find to learn from. Trolls are much more worse over here.

[Marko23 10]

MA's are lagging PA is leading ....you cannot trade the past you trade now and look the near future...in this sample first sign for trend change was HL >>>>HH trend change >>>>>PB(pullback) my entry>>>hh my exit

 

Perhaps I should underline this: I do not critizise the MA on your chart. But the obvious success of your efforts comes from your understanding of price action, not from picking the right moveing average.

 

Please excuse any irritation my comments may have caused.

[thalestrader 14]

Thanks for the optimistic attitude I can find here.

Ways better than any German thread I could find to learn from. Trolls are much more worse over here.

 

Plenty of trolls everywhere. I knew from comments made in various posts here and there that there are those here at TL who are doubters and haters and self-loathers who, against all evidence to the contrary, believe that the charts posted here are somehow after the fact. They look at the posts in the PnL thread, and think that there is no way that there can be five or six folks out the nearly 40,000 registered TL users who can be, on average, net profitable. They think that if they can't make a profit, then no one can!

 

At any rate, they can say whatever they like about me or about this thread so long as they do it outside of this thread. There is no need to bring it here. They can keep it in the TL live chat and in other threads. After all, Troll-in-Chief123123 started the "Hindsight Thread" as a thinlyveiled sarcastic attack on this thread as well as the PnL thread. So what? Let he and his fellow travelers post to their hearts are content over there.

 

You know the saying, "those who can, do. Those who can't, teach."

 

In trading, those who can, trade, those who can't, troll.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited January 30, 2010 by thalestrader

[TradeRunner 10]

Thursday's trading: 2 trades (+8)

 

I didn't run through Friday.

 

Keep up the good work Thales and everyone else I really appreciate it. Hopefully one day my results will be good enough to be questioned by trolls

[Cory2679 11]

Hopefully one day my results will be good enough to be questioned by trolls

 

LOL!! Well said, TR!

[thalestrader 14]

Thursday's trading: 2 trades (+8)

 

Hi Traderunner,

 

I like both of your entries. In hindsight (if the trolls allow) I would probably have taken your first entry as well, especially given where price was with respect to S/R. I think I would likely have worked that first entry for a break even exit (much would depend upon the pace of trade at the time). I would then have entered short at your second entry (1.4020) and 1/2 would have been at PT1 of 1.3998 for +22 ticks, and the second half would have been stopped where you were at 1.4009 for +11 ticks for a total of 16.5 ticks.

 

Now, if I had not chosen a break even stop on entry 1, and instead held it, then I would not have moved my stop down to the 1.4036 level until after price broken the 1.4021 low. You are in a little chop zone there, and you do not want to be one of those who get chopped up by using those levels within the zone. As daedalus said in a post one time, there are layers and layers of stops in those zones - don't be one of them. So, had I held from the initial entry, the rest of the trade would have been the same managed the same as the second entry had been: PT1 at 1.3998 for +32 and stopped on the second half at 1.4009 for +21 for a +26.5 tick trade.

 

Of course, all that is hindsight, so I better say no more.

 

Good work. If the trolls were as dedicated and positive in their efforts to better themselves as you, there's be no need for them to troll.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Gabe2004 10]

Pick you pick

 

Gabe

[thalestrader 14]

Pick you pick

 

Gabe

 

I picked.

 

Thank you,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Weekend Reading

 

Hi Folks,

 

I was thrown off my game a bit this week so I'm both late and light on this week's weekend reading edition.

 

Here I have attached an interview with Linda Raschke entitled "The Rituals of Trading," from Active Trader Magazine's August 2000 issue.

 

I would also recommend along with this interview, that you all dust off your copy of Market Wizards and read the Mark Weinstein and Tom Baldwin interviews in Market Wizards and Raschke's interview in New Market Wizards. If you do not have these two books, get them.

 

You can find Linda Raschke's New Market Wizard interview on page 113 at this link:

 

http://www.beursplaza.com/ebook7.pdf

 

and you can access a download link to Market Wizards for the Wienstein and Baldwin interviews at this link:

 

4shared.com - free file sharing and storage - download

 

Now, here is what you should be monitoring your reactions for: If you read these interviews and think to yourself, "No flippin' way! These folks are full of it! No way anyone can do that!" then hang it up. You're never going to eb a winner - not at this game, at any rate. You will never do as well at this game as you should. Howeevr, if instead your reaction is, "Yes! That's it! That's where I want to be!" then let's get to it!

 

After all, if you do not believe others can do it, then on what basis do you believe that you can?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Rituals of Trading.pdf

Edited January 30, 2010 by thalestrader

[forrestang 10]

Lately, I've been feeling better about trade management, and have begun to stop fretting over the possible future outcome of each of my trades. I think this is due to a conversation in this thread.

 

Since the inception of this thread, I have kept a word document with a lot of the finer points from things in this thread from various posters. I would post this document, but it would take a bit of organizing so that it is really coherent to a reader other than myself. Eventually I will get this organized and posted.

 

But for now, here is an exert that I have taken from my document and put into a pdf. This exchange right here shown in the pdf has at least temporarily completely changed my trading for what seems to be the better, at least temporarily. As mentioned above, at the very least it has allowed me to focus on not worrying about every trade being a winner, because I am at least a bit confident that I have a pretty solid way of management.

 

I have only pasted one example in here. But that example is one of the few scenarios I see over and over.

 

These scenarios are basically:

1.) Price stops you in and immediately moves in your favor by a lot or a little.

2.) Price stops you in, and either moves a tic or two before retracing on you

3.) And of course, anything in between or possibly even some 'V' type behavior (rare case)

 

This example is focusing on #2.

Manage This.pdf

[thalestrader 14]

These scenarios are basically:

1.) Price stops you in and immediately moves in your favor by a lot or a little.

2.) Price stops you in, and either moves a tic or two before retracing on you

3.) And of course, anything in between or possibly even some 'V' type behavior (rare case)

 

This example is focusing on #2.

 

If you find yourself frequently being stopped out to the tick, you should have a re-entry plan. Also, if you find yourself frequently being stopped out by a tick, you might need to consider a 2 tick range chart, especially if volatility continues to expand.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

15m ES chart(lite blue support line from daily chart 1067.00)

 

Pa,

What is your view of using RTH vs. AH for looking at larger trends?

 

For example I usually draw tcls and tls on my 60 minute NQ chart, do you find that the RTH chart puts something into perspective that the 24hour chart does not?

[patrader 10]

Pa,

What is your view of using RTH vs. AH for looking at larger trends?

 

For example I usually draw tcls and tls on my 60 minute NQ chart, do you find that the RTH chart puts something into perspective that the 24hour chart does not?

Actually i find using globex gives me a better perspective on all timeframes.Sometimes price makes a LL or HH in afterhours and i want to have them on my charts to draw my wedges and for S/R levels.On the15m chart i will sometimes switch to a rth chart for a quick comparison and to see a little further back in time without having to bunch up the bars too much.HTH

[forrestang 10]

If you find yourself frequently being stopped out to the tick, you should have a re-entry plan. Also, if you find yourself frequently being stopped out by a tick, you might need to consider a 2 tick range chart, especially if volatility continues to expand.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

The idea should still hold all the same right, no matter what bar interval one uses to manage the initial pa after entering, in that we're just monitoring the micro swings develop? That if we buy, and we are barely stopped in before it moves against us, a LH should make us a bit cautious about letting our initial stop be exercised?

 

Do you think volatility would change anything in this regard?