Reading Charts in Real Time

[DugDug 10]

just per previous thoughts.... i have been busy rambling at http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f62/taking-part-profits-trend-trading-7466.html#post88151

(I need to be able to be more compressed)

 

Watching very closely 10yr - there is a GDP figure plus others out today which might change things, but I am looking to add to the short trade on either a abc rally to 117'285 With no massive spike through 118'5, and or a fall through 117'23

[thalestrader 14]

I do believe that ES does a dance off of that descending trend line before it mounts a rally. I have long term support on the Cash between 1052-1068, so we're getting close, I would think. But the longer it takes, the farther down that trendline touch will occur, if it occurs at all.

 

 

 

I'd have preferred this to happen during US Cash market hours, but we did get the touch and dance. Now, we wait and see if it sticks.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Operation Insane Rodeo Clown (OIRC) I'm still thinking that I'm early and that the EURJPY needs one more push down into the 124.37 level or so, but hey, I have to start somewhere.

 

Well, I was right in that the EURJPY had at least one more push lower before making a more sizable rally. I should have been more patient.

 

At any rate, here is the current EURJPY ...

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

if you can[/u] combine both a short and a long term style to flatten pl volatility and satisfy the mental needs as a trader then its the ideal situation.

 

Hi Dug Dug,

 

Good stuff. I too agree - scaling out, which I do, does sem to do more to help from a psychological and emotional pperspective than it does an equity perspective. You are free to start a thread, of course, but I want you to know that discussions of this sort are very much welcome in this thread. In fact, I wish there'd be more discussion by those who do an all in/all out or a pyramiding approach to money/trade management here. Either way, thank you for for bringing this up; and for the Joe Ross coments as well.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[elitejets 10]

Hi

Here is my view of EURJPY (which is influenced by my short position!).

It needs to break out of the descending channel for me, so above 126.90 where it broke down the last swing and also then above 61.8 of the last swing would get me out.

On the weekly I use the fib from the start of the Sep08 drop (just because all the JPY crosses seem to respect that one better) and I am looking for 123 and the next fib level down.

I also attached my EJ weekly chart from last week, using the fib expansion levels from the last swing.

Have a great weekend guys.

Nicola

[thalestrader 14]

I'll post a chart in a few minutes but the EURJPY looks like a good upside continuation break out is on the way with a buy point above 126.25 (current 126.17).

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

I'll post a chart in a few minutes but the EURJPY looks like a good upside continuation break out is on the way with a buy point above 126.25 (current 126.17).

 

Hi Folks,

 

Here is the EURJPY currently. Buy stop at 126.27 I have in my little micro account.

 

I also made some notes. The small ellipses shows where I went long yesterday. Not a bad play, and given the time of the day, managed according to my normal rules, I'd have been out with anywhere between +5 and +20 ticks. But, it would seem I committed a fatal error - I mixed degrees. I tried to play it cute and get an early jump on a rally, even though looking at the chart, I clearly saw that price had not done the sort of work out of which bottoms are hammered out. The larger ellipses encompasses a very nice basing pattern. This does not mean we have the bottom, only that we had a bottom that could support a rally of several hundred ticks or more if price wishes to try such a thing.

 

I did just get long the EURJPY on the break out (actual fill 126.288 on a 126.27 buy stop - not bad slippage considering I was filled just as the news releases were coming out. Note, this was not a "news" trade. I actually had not even considered the time. I saw that the short opportunity was not going to trigger and that an upside breakout was more likely, so I placed the order. This was based upon what price was indicating, and not a guess as to the news (I still have no idea what the news was - I trade with no news fed and no TV and no news radio).

 

 

I am going to hold this with a stop below the consolidation area (stop 125.80). Still not ideal, but that is below the last four hour low, and I was sleeping when I should have been placing a buy stop down around 125.60. Below is the open position window. I did add a limit order 129.45after I took the screen shot, and I did erase the account number.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Mr_black 10]

Short 6e

[thalestrader 14]

Here is the EURGBP 4 hour chart - price broke below what I had as anticipated to be support. Price then rallied up to that support, tested it as resistance, fell back into a a higher low, and we now have a completed long sequence. At least this morning, the relative out performance of by the Euro over the Pound has been quite pronounced. Perhaps this is the trend change to stronger EURO/ Weaker Pound ... price will tell...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Again ... no volume, no stochastics, MACD's, "value ranges" (I still have no idea what that means) etc. Just support, resistance, highs and lows, add in some trend lines and an eye for beauty (i.e. proper proportion between swings) and this gets very easy.

 

 

Now, the question on my mind is this: Did Jonbig buy that low in the ES? It's up almost 20 points from that trend line tap, which should be way more than the 6R he requires because I would assume that a 2 point stop would have been more than enough.

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Marko23 10]

EUR/USD: 3rd push down

[Mr_black 10]

Short 6e

P/L+29 pips

[patrader 10]

15m 6E chart

[patrader 10]

Daily 6E chart

[Cory2679 11]

I guess as a bit of fun these things are OK but they can encourage pretty bad habits as you point out (using maximum leverage on the most volatile instruments whilst being as close to always in as you can). There are a whole bunch of 'trading gurus' that started their careers in this fashion.

 

Yeah, I know what you mean.

 

I think I'd like to play one month though, after I consider myself "successful," just for fun. I figure when I'm ready to move from spot FX back to futures, I'll take one month "off" to trade a $500 micro account and try to win king of the micro.

 

You'd pretty much have to double your account every week (compounding) to have a chance at winning. I wouldn't necessarily change my trading style...all I would do is increase my position size...say maybe risking 20% per trade. I'd just trade and cross my fingers that I don't have a significant draw down period.

 

Just for fun, since I wasn't really trading this week, with my demo account I risked 20% per trade...I began the week with $5,000 and now I'm sitting on $10,375.99 closed trade equity!!...so it is possible...just a risky and unsustainable way to trade. As long as the mindset is **this is just a game** I think it'd be all right.

[Mr_black 10]

LL on 30 min chart down trend is doing his job

[fxThunder 10]

For Jonbig and Forrest - ES short setup...

 

Edit: potential target = lod 1082 area

Edited January 29, 2010 by fxThunder

[patrader 10]

15m 6e chart

[patrader 10]

6E Daily chart

[fxThunder 10]

ES target area indicated...

[fxThunder 10]

and last update... ES target reached

[patrader 10]

15m 6E chart

[thalestrader 14]

Well I've been out for the last two hours, and I am happy to see I am no longer in that EURJPY long.

 

I have enough left for one more whack before I'd have to pony up another $25 to sit at the craps table at FXCMarkets.

 

It really does have an October 2008 feel about things right now. Might be close to time to put the bull suit back in the closet and put both arms back n the bear suit.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

Operation Insane Rodeo Clown (OIRC)

 

This style of buy-and-hold and don't touch makes me nervous.

 

With the normal management, both hits the account has taken on the EJ offered what I see as profitable stop-and-reverse opportunties...not only would it have reduced the loss, but would have been net profitable both times.

 

As you know, I've been considering the 'place orders and let it do its thing' approach, but for the time being I'll probably stick the the 'normal' way of managing trades.

 

I understand this is basically an 'experiment,' anyway. Just my

 

EDIT: Well, I don't know that the first trade would have been net profitable...now that I look at it again, on the short, the second half would have probably gotten BE...but still a better outcome overall.

[patrader 10]

6B Daily chart