Reading Charts in Real Time

[thalestrader 14]

I have a question about when taking trades that you let go without actively managing them (presumably overnight).

 

Do you not have a way of getting the stop to BE?

 

I usually just have one PT, and it is either a SL or PT trade. I have used trailing stops with bracket orders on my broker's platform, but I usually end up with a less than desired result (after all, a trailing stop has to trail by a number of ticks, and it is itself "dumb" and unable to set itself to S/R and natural stop levels). The big benefit to trading overnight is that I am not there to mess with the trade. As I have said before, I do my best trading when I am asleep.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Here is how that ES couldawouldashoulda trade looks as we near the Globex close. It will be interesting to see where it picks up and goes to when Globex re-opens.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

Is there anything here that looks like this will rally?

 

Not trading this, just posting it.

 

Looks like P1 was easily hit.

 

P2, if I were trading this I definitely would have closed prior to the close for a profit that was greater than P1.

 

How's that for another couldwoula fo ya! CWS crew in full effect for 2010 Boi!!!!

 

[Cory2679 11]

Well, I guess I won't be on tomorrow morning...I'm going to stay up late tonight (presumably while watching charts...no trading though, unless demo)...sleep in tomorrow, then begin the next night trading the first part of the Europe session. I'll be ready for entry an hour before the Frankfurt open (so I'll begin @ 12:30-1 AM EST) and trade until between 5-7 or so. I'm just going to demo trade the rest of the week with this new schedule.

 

My goal is to get an entry, set my stops and PT(s), shut down, and go to bed. As Thales says, his own best trades occur when he sets the orders at night and everything works its magic while he sleeps. (However, I'll take a shorter term trade if the setup is crying out at me).

 

Just for fun, and I know this is a pointless exercise, I just looked back to see what would have happened if I had traded last night...

 

Obviously this is hindsight (except the UJ, which I posted my opinion about before it dropped), but I think I have somewhat of an idea of what I would likely have taken in real time...

 

I would have gotten to take this:

 

I'm not trading, but I'd be tempted to short the USDJPY with a break of the other side of the range...

 

Not a home run, but wasn't the worst idea in the world.

 

I thought it was quite a good idea.

 

 

I could have gotten this (although without trailing the stops - I would have gotten fewer pips):

 

1 trade: +50

 

I couldn't decide on a target for this trade and originally just put it on a round number 141.00 which would have been +75. I had second thoughts and moved it to +50 but if I was trading 2 contracts then my second target would've have been 141.00 .

 

 

...and I could have gotten a long on the GU.

 

 

These are just the ones I find really obvious. There were probably more, especially smaller degree swings.

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

Two charts of the 6A (AUDUSD futures). This is not one I follow, but I was prompted to open it up today in response to zt's posts, and I had an idea of how I might be able to illustrate the concept of degre of swing or trend for those who are trying to understand it.

 

I used a software called MTPredictor to identify three degres of swing (I've mentioned MTP here before, and I know daedalus also owns it or has access to it - this is in no way meant to be an endorsement of the product, I am using it as a tool - a very expensive tool - to illustrate a point).

 

MTP is an Elliot Wave software, and it has the capacity to fous upon thre levels of trend which it calls major, intermediate, and minor.

 

This first chart is the 15 minute 6A. I know it may be difficult to make out, but the notes on the chart should help you see how the same price action can be cut up or bundled into groups of moves of various sizes, i.e. swings of differing degree.

 

 

 

I select one swing to illustrate this concept in the above chart. As you can see, the software identifies one major swing that it breaks down into seven intermediate swings, and thirteen minor swings. Each of these degrees can be traded. But nothing says you must trade each. Some traders, for example, daedalus, tend to focus on the minor swing level. I tend to look at the intermediate swing level. My daughter, for what its worth, is usually using the major swing levels to get her into intermediate degree moves. I mentioned my friend Mark yesterday, and he trades only the major swing levels, and pays no attention to what is occurring at the minor or intermediate swing level.

 

This will make a difference in the number of opportunities a trader finds, as well as the extent, in terms of both magnitude of price movement and amount of time in a trade. Look at the following chart of the 6A.

 

 

In this case, I used a 34 minute chart (an old favorite of mine that I still look to from time to time, but not nearly as often as I should). In this chart, you can see where a trader trading the major swings would have gotten long at the 123 at the lower left hand corner of the chart, and would have stopped and reversed to short on the first short sequence of major swing degre at the far right hand corner. In the meantime, traders trading the intermediate and minor swings would have been quite busy during both the uptrend and the nascent downtrend.

 

The tricky part, of course, is apparently learning to distinguish these degrees from one another. I think that perhaps being conscious of the concept may be half (or more) of the battle.

 

I hope this helps.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Kiwi 16]

Borderline? Cory, my nine year old daughter thinks you are over the top!

 

Last night she read your post about how bad you were feeling, and she said, "You should tell him it's only money."

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

 

LOL.

 

Shes only 9. You wait until shes 13-15 and you'll find out what a drama queen is ... it is coming to a room near you. :rofl:

[thalestrader 14]

Current look at the Dollar Index (daily) ...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Current look at the ES shows it going to PT2 on its couldawouldashoulda rally ...

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

Hey guys,

 

I think I'm going to be taking some time off from trading/posting. I need some time to reflect, read, review, collect my thoughts, etc. I feel like lately (this week) I've somewhat lost sight of the "forest" from focusing too much on the "trees."

 

I want to take this time off and decide exactly what I'm going to be doing when I resume trading this Monday.

 

Cory

Edited January 21, 2010 by Cory2679

[jonbig04 10]

Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

[jonbig04 10]

Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

 

We have a new high and I stand aside.

[Marko23 10]

Beware of theories, or get another "count".

 

[Marko23 10]

EUR/USD downtrend continues

Edited January 21, 2010 by Marko23
new chart

[patrader 10]

[

Edited January 21, 2010 by patrader

[patrader 10]

[patrader 10]

6E daily chart

[patrader 10]

6B daily chart

[patrader 10]

6B 240m chart

[patrader 10]

6E 240m chart

[Marko23 10]

EUR/USD five segments down in the last move of the downtrend.

Rule of thumb from yesterday verified.

[Marko23 10]

EUR/USD Long

[Marko23 10]

USD/EUR may turn in small degree

 

ADD: 1st Long at target

 

ADD: Stop for 2nd Long at break even

 

ADD: 2nd Long at target

Edited January 21, 2010 by Marko23

[Beachtrader 10]

Still short euro but possibly a level to start thinking about going long the pound? I'm basing this on a continuation of the daily?

 

 

 

 

All the best

BT

 

Update: and entered long on an M5 1-2-3

Edited January 21, 2010 by Beachtrader
To show entry

[thalestrader 14]

EUR/USD Long

 

Nice, Marko! Very good eye. You called it quickly based upon what was likely the very first indication price gave that a bounce was immanent. Even if someone did not have your eye, the ensuing price action certainly gave notice that at least a small but tradbale rally was in the offing. I was not watching at the time, but I think anyone who has been reading this thread would agree that this long sequence on the EU would have been easy to see in real time.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

I would imagine that this should carry to the second PT, though nothing says that price cannot reverses before PT.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales