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thalestrader

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First Long chance with EUR/USD

 

EW rule of thumb: when the 3rd part doesn't make it past 100%, chances for a 5th wave up deteriorate.

attachment.php?attachmentid=18050&stc=1&d=1263983159

 

ADD: Long stopped.

tl-10.thumb.png.82c34fcb7ce49fd6fe50dabc39b4af8d.png

Edited by Marko23

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Hi Folks,

 

EURUSD has dropped through nearby support and has fallen back into the range that contained price from May 2009 through most of September 2009. The small support area which had been denoted by a blue rectangle on my chart yesterday is now red as it is anticipated resistance, and next major support should be in the zone defining the bottom of the Summer range.

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa70fad14e97_2010-01-20EURUSDDaily1.thumb.jpg.2a8cfa3167abe289a72954e63d9c29cf.jpg

5aa70fad19f9a_2010-01-20EURUSDDaily2.thumb.jpg.90db37870344143d38181413ec3aaf02.jpg

5aa70fad1ee34_2010-01-20EURUSDDaily3.thumb.jpg.997534354fad403f33e7b784099d0ad0.jpg

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Having missed the break at the Tokyo open last night, this is starting to look like a day of staring at the futures charts for me. The problem with selling new lows right here is that there have already been two break lows since the breakdown out of the last large consolidation, and unless I am already carrying a short line from higher levels, In general, I do not like to initiate on a third break.

 

At this point in a run down like that, I'm more inclined either to look for a long sequence, and if I feel that the trend has changed to overall bearish, I'm usually content to wait for a bounce that resolves itself into a short sequence. For example, a rally that carries the EURUSD up to 1.4200 +/- 20 ticks or so that ends in a short sequence to get me short.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

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In spite of that drop by the EUR, it looks like the EUR is starting to show a bit of strength as compared to the GBP. May just be a temporary shift, but something to keep our eyes on over the coming hours.

 

Temporary indeed ... lasted about an hour. I'm still inclined to favor the GBP for longs and the EUR for shorts, though I reserve the right to do otherwise.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

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BTW, I'm not going to be posting as much for a little while. I haven't been doing that well this week, and can't pinpoint why, but one thought was that maybe I'm focusing too much on this thread...

 

Anyways,

 

I was looking for a short at the test of the bottom of the former range...

 

Took this and am sitting @ BE with the stop...which as I'm typing is just about hit...:(

 

Update: Stopped for BE. :angry:

UJ15M2.JPG.547b4250191c9784fb0864dd29bbf29b.JPG

Edited by Cory2679

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Hallelujah!!!!!!! :o

 

I'm just sitting here reflecting on my week...how down in the dumps I was yesterday and how happy I am right now after one winning trade!

 

It's funny...I'm really not a very emotional/dramatic guy...I don't really have much of a temper or anything either...

 

BUT, when it comes to trading, it seems like I'm a complete emotional mess and a borderline drama queen! :rofl::o

 

Maybe I'll mellow out after I have some real performance under my belt...the problem now is that if I have a day or two without solid performance, I (perhaps irrationally) worry that my trading future is doomed!

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when it comes to trading, it seems like I'm a complete emotional mess and a borderline drama queen!

 

Borderline? Cory, my nine year old daughter thinks you are over the top!

 

Last night she read your post about how bad you were feeling, and she said, "You should tell him it's only money."

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

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Borderline? Cory, my nine year old daughter thinks you are over the top!

 

Last night she read your post about how bad you were feeling, and she said, "You should tell him it's only money."

 

:rofl::o:applaud:

 

Thanks for the laugh! I'm literally wiping tears!

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ES Redux ...

 

See what happens when I don't play for two targets? That's when the ES decides to run a bit. I was just telling Forrest a week or so ago that I had not hit the ES for a 10 point trade since November. I guess I let my recent experience finally persuade me to stop trying for the big play and just take it all off at PT1. Nothing says this has to go to PT2, but if it does go there, it is doing it without me.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa70fad88037_2010-01-20ES4.thumb.jpg.9e5ff186085dd534f805b0eab0353633.jpg

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