Reading Charts in Real Time

[TradeRunner 10]

Hi Traderunner,

 

Two questions:

 

1) Are the solid arrows are located where you traded?

 

2) Are you still doing the 15 tick stop loss, 30 tick profit target exercise?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

1) Yes and the dotted lines represent valid trades that I did not see in real time.

 

2) Yes and no. The exercise said to take every sequence but I have stopped taking sequences that I think are in a chop zone - identifying these areas seems like an important skill. I also move to BE when price moves +16.

 

I'm must admit that I'm starting to struggle with the HL and LH created by two bars because they occur everywhere - I'm feeling less inclined to take these.

[fxThunder 10]

GU long entry - post a little late....

[fxThunder 10]

Stopped on GU long - awaiting next opportunity.

[Marko23 10]

Long with EUR/USD

 

ADD: No follow-up, just 1 tick to trigger a Long position.

 

ADD: Got out, -10 tick

Edited January 5, 2010 by Marko23

[Marko23 10]

Long with EUR/USD

 

ADD: No follow-up, just 1 tick to trigger a Long position.

 

ADD: Got out, -10 tick

 

Early exit ok, would have been stopped later.

[BlowFish 10]

No problem, littlefish, I'm perhaps a bit too sensitive right now. I've had a couple of PM's in the last month or so from folks basically telling me I'm a fraud and wanting to know "what my deal is."

 

It is sad but not surprising that there are angry bitter people around this business, actually I am surprised there are not more when one considers the trials and tribulations most of us go through. What is particularly sad is that until one gets out of that particular place (angry bitter) chances of success are minuscule to nothing.

 

Don't let the custards get you down.

 

Oh and prosperous new year all

[Marko23 10]

Long again

 

Edited January 5, 2010 by Marko23
Wrong picture

[thalestrader 14]

We got stopped out with 9.9 pips on this EURJPY short. We'll probably find we left ticks on the table, but when something drops like that and bounces like that, I have no problem taking what I can before it takes me for what it can.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Hi Folks,

 

Follow up on the EURJPY shows that we did indeed leave ticks on the table as price resumed the decline and proceeded to hit what would have been both profit targets.

 

There might be something to that Jonbig "All in/All out" and trailing stop be darned.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

GBPUSD looks as though it may want to change it up a little right here.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

GBPUSD follow up from last night - GU did indeed decide that the decline needed a pause, and though it started a bit choppy, it rallied back to the profit target and then some (not much, but some) before putting in what I think must have been a beautiful and obvious short opportunity. Alas, I was asleep at the time. One of these days I'll pry myself away from fund commitments and change my schedule to allow me to trade London and NY instead of NY and Tokyo.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

GU ... rallied back to the profit target and then some (not much, but some) before putting in what I think must have been a beautiful and obvious short opportunity.

 

This short on the GBPUSD must have been obvious to most anyone studying this thread. I know it is always easier to see these opportunities in hindsight, but I have no doubt that my daughter, for example, would have picked this up in real time. And if she could do it, then I probably would have had a shot at it as well ... probably.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

GU long entry - post a little late....

 

 

Hi EmNQ,

 

Yes, your long entry was both late (if you look at my above post you will see that the chart was posted at the first long indication), and you were buying into a test of the last breakdown point. Did you not see the short that presented itself soon after?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited January 5, 2010 by thalestrader

[thalestrader 14]

I know you don't know me from Tom, Dick, or Harry but I will throw in my two cents worth and hopefully you can verify it on your own. Just as a general rule, when you have a very strong gap at the open in the stock e-minis, most of the time the trend will continue in that direction.

 

And what is a strong gap, I don't know how to explain it, but when you see it, you'll recognize it.

 

Hope this helps and good luck,

 

Jands

 

Hi Jands,

 

As someone who knows you very well, I know you'll appreciate this: I have attached my wave count of the 15 minute ES (this is the count I sent to our freind L- yesterday), which has me expecting a final wave 5 of 3 rally before a wave 4 decline sets in. Now, I do not know "wave 3 of __________." I only concern myself with with might happen today, and not where the so-called "Big Picture" wave count is. You know I use EW for day trading, not predicting the future. And my count can be completely wrong (you know that as well). The first chart I snapped late yesterday morning/early afternoon, and the second chart is updated price action through this morning.

 

At any rate, and the reason I bring this up at all is this: I use Taylor's book method to help me track the short term trading cycle of the ES. I've made no secret here that I use Taylor and that I subscribe to RichBois's TTT service (My three paid subscriptions are to Investor's Business Daily, Barron's, and Rich Bois's TTT - that's it). Today is a Short Sale day. As such, we expect a rally into which to sell anticipating a decline. Given the wave count on the continuous ES, a gap open above yesterday's high that fails to extend higher should offer a good short opportunity today on the ES. Of course, it is always possible that the high occurs prior to the open, and the sell off could therefore be in progres and extend from the open. None of this is a prediction, but is rather a set of "if ... then" plans so I know how I will act depending upon what the market presents.

 

I know there are a number of influential folks here at TL who argue that gaps do not exist. But I know otherwise. I know how the trading desks treat gaps. Gaps offer important clues, but first you have to at least open your mind to the possibility that gaps between regular session closes and opens are viewed by professionals (think of the Merrill floor trader trading 1000 cars, not internet pikers like me trading 3-10 lots) as significant.

 

Thanks for contributing here, Jands.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

I fell asleep at the switch writing that lengthy post on the ES, and absolutely missed out on this gem on the GBPUSD.

 

 

 

Time to focus.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited January 5, 2010 by thalestrader

[fxThunder 10]

Hi EmNQ,

 

Yes, your long entry was both late (if you look at my above post you will see that the chart was posted at the first long indication), and you were buying into a test of the last breakdown point. Did you not see the short that presented itself soon after?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Hi Thales,

 

Thanks for the feedback. I did see the short - but not in real time.

 

When I analysed the trade afterwards I realised my mistakes and am filing this trade in the "box of mistakes". Hopefully that box does not get too full soon .

 

BTW - I, for one, would love to see you trade the $250 account you mentioned in earlier posts.

 

Cheers,

eNQ

[thalestrader 14]

I fell asleep at the switch writing that lengthy post on the ES, and absolutely missed out on this gem on the GBPUSD.

 

 

Well that gem would have been a break even effort for me, but a gem nonetheless.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[fxThunder 10]

I am currently observing this stucture on the GU 240min chart.

 

This structure has me looking for longs on the 15min currently.

 

EDIT:

 

I do post here when I can to hold myself accountable and also to elicit comments / input - if anyone do have any comments or questions, please feel free to post them at any time...

 

Cheers,

eNQ

Edited January 5, 2010 by fxThunder

[fxThunder 10]

............................................................

Edited January 5, 2010 by fxThunder
forgot attachment

[fxThunder 10]

to follow up on my post just before - I am considering this long on GU

 

(with attachment this time...)

[thalestrader 14]

None of this is a prediction, but is rather a set of "if ... then" plans so I know how I will act depending upon what the market presents.

 

If ... then short ... have stop loss, will travel ...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

If ... then short ... have stop loss, will travel ...

 

if support ... then stop loss if necessary ...

 

if break ... then short ...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

if support ... then stop loss if necessary ...

 

if break ... then short ...

 

Here is how it looks to me at the moment. I am prepared to get whipped out and re-enter depending upon what happens withe 10 AM news pending release, especiallyas I was expecing a slightly higher high than what we saw in Globex.

 

I am also prepared to get whipped out and to sit on my hands.

 

If ... then, right?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Rustie 10]

I am currently observing this stucture on the GU 240min chart.

 

This structure has me looking for longs on the 15min currently.

 

EDIT:

 

I do post here when I can to hold myself accountable and also to elicit comments / input - if anyone do have any comments or questions, please feel free to post them at any time...

 

Cheers,

eNQ

 

I agree, I was looking for just a little test lower but over all 1.6350 1.6400 looks interesting to me, just 2 cents

[thalestrader 14]

Here is how it looks to me at the moment.

 

That's a little too good of a start ... I'd have preferred the initial reaction to be up, rather than down.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Stop loss and Buy Limits are in and it is out of my hands now ... I'll let the market decide whether or not I win or lose.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Stop loss and Buy Limits are in and it is out of my hands now ... I'll let the market decide whether or not I win or lose.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

 

I lose. 1131.50-1133.00 was my initial resistance target for the high. A 123 from those levels would get me short. A break and hold on a retest above those levels might get me lightly long.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales