Reading Charts in Real Time

[thalestrader 14]

Short opportunity has triggered.

 

No progress with EurUSD

 

No progress, indeed. I have marked three points on the 15 minute where, had we been both in the trade and awake to mess with it, we would possibly have exited with a small profit.

 

Looking at it now, if we were still short at 1.4334, I would be tempted to exit here (currently 1.4333) for break even/small loss and then re-enter short or long as price indicates. I like small losses. However, the 60 minute view would tempt me to hold the short with my original stop loss.

 

Well, they say "when in doubt, get out." I just wonder if I would be so doubtful if we were really in this trade.

 

Strange trade, indeed.

 

Best WIshes,

 

Thales

Edited December 30, 2009 by thalestrader
typo

[Marko23 10]

No progress on the 2nd Short.

I would be out now. I'm not trading this, just looking at it. Maybe sometimes next year...

[fxThunder 10]

Hi everyone,

 

Back from a welcome vacation and ready to get going again...

 

Short on the EU currently..

[fxThunder 10]

Stop moved to b/e at test of previous swing low now.

[Marko23 10]

2nd Short at 1st target, got out to early.

62% seems to work in this situation.

 

[thalestrader 14]

Hi everyone,

 

Back from a welcome vacation and ready to get going again...

 

Short on the EU currently..

 

Seems a bit too early by a few days to be returning from a vacation, but welcome back nonetheless!

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[fxThunder 10]

Seems a bit too early by a few days to be returning from a vacation, but welcome back nonetheless!

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Thanks Thales - will be leaving tomorrow to spend the weekend at a game farm before

I really return to full productivity on Monday.

 

Have been keeping an eye on the market whilst I was away - just couldn't resist the urge.

 

ADD:

 

I find it very curious to watch the GBP.USD rally away quite strongly and the EUR.USD doing the opposite. This is the first time I have seen such an obvious disconnect between the two.

Edited December 30, 2009 by fxThunder
typo

[Cory2679 11]

Getting started a little late today...looked like a potential short, but now I'm not sure (it may continue upward). It may not be time yet, but I decided I'd just post the charts anyway...

 

EDIT: No trade, price broke the prior swing-high.

Edited December 30, 2009 by Cory2679
typo & update

[Cory2679 11]

Short on the EU currently..

 

If I would have been up on time, I likely would have taken this short, too. Looks like it'd just about be to PT2. :doh:

 

EDIT: Posted the 15 minute chart. Couldawouldashoulda (gotten up on time! )

Edited December 30, 2009 by Cory2679

[fxThunder 10]

EU short, trade update:

 

Target reached...

[fxThunder 10]

If I would have been up on time, I likely would have taken this short, too. Looks like it'd just about be to PT2. :doh:

 

EDIT: Posted the 15 minute chart. Couldawouldashoulda (gotten up on time! )

 

Hi Cory,

 

Sure, you may have missed this one but the train will be around to the same station again and again - just look at long opportunities that were presented by GU and UJ.

 

Keep well,

eNQ

[fxThunder 10]

Little late in posting:

 

Walked in from my run and saw this long setup on EU.

 

Update:

Moved stop to b/e

[thalestrader 14]

New possibility for Short

 

If I would have been up on time, I likely would have taken this short

 

EU short, trade update:

 

Target reached...

 

Little late in posting:

 

Walked in from my run and saw this long setup on EU.

 

Update:

Moved stop to b/e

 

 

I love logging in here and seeing folks posting their trades based on what we've put together here in this thread.

 

What is really neat is that many folks are starting to see the same opportunities as they unfold. This shows that this approach has a degree of objectivity to it that allows multiple traders to see the same things.

 

It also shows that this really can be communicated to one another, which means it can also be taught and learned, and that the hard part is the discipline necessary to put it to work and the emotional discipline to manage your trades properly.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[daedalus 10]

Just simming today... won't be back until after new years live but there actually have been some nice moves and decent volume working back into these markets. They are certainly tradeable today, albeit a bit quieter than normal.

 

Just a few of the trades I saw form this morning... all of them textbook entries exactly fitting the criteria i've outlined in this thread before.

 

 

But on another note, one of the ideas i've been throwing around for managing stops (to allow for bigger runners) was that on every candle that made a higher close than the candle before or a lower close than the candle before that I would trail stops to the high/low of that candle to lock in profits and reduce risk.... Just seems like a logical way to trail stops (if you're into that sort of thing) after price proves that it has advanced in favor.

 

So in these examples you can see on the runners, you just keep trailing down and down and down (each candle with a number is a candle you would trail stops on to the H or L of it). Which has the potential to hold on for even bigger profits rather than taking targets (if you're into that kind of thing).

 

 

But what I really like it for is the ability of it to protect you when its not going to work for you.... Obviously in this failed trade you could avoid a loss 13 ticks bigger than you possibly would have too.

 

 

I know a lot of you guys don't need this stuff or care, but for anyone learning in this thread who doesn't quite trust themselves yet to make those "hold 'em or fold 'em" calls this management might act as a good crutch for you to hold onto while your skills build.

 

Cheers!

[thalestrader 14]

I know a lot of you guys don't need this stuff or care, but for anyone learning in this thread who doesn't quite trust themselves yet to make those "hold 'em or fold 'em" calls this management might act as a good crutch for you to hold onto while your skills build.

 

Daedalus, your contributions to this thread are very appreciated.

 

The spirit of this thread is to share and help, and I would encourage anyone who has found something that has helped them to trade this approach, or have found something here in this approach that has helped them with some other method, to share with us here. You never know what you might be sitting on that could be the difference between someone else making a go at this or falling in discouragement.

 

Thank you for your help here this year. I hope it continues into he next!

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

Just simming today... won't be back until after new years live but there actually have been some nice moves and decent volume working back into these markets. They are certainly tradeable today, albeit a bit quieter than normal.

 

I agree with you. I think PA over the break has been EXCELLENT!!!! At least on the ES and NQ which is what I watch daily.

[Marko23 10]

In the 5m (not 15!) timescale, the up move has an impulse structure, for now at least.

 

[Cory2679 11]

Well, I think I'm "done" for today. I'm currently in a short position on the UJ that has hit PT1. I have the second half at BE...OCO order for PT2 and BE. I apologize for not posting the chart in real time...was in the middle of lunch...

 

I missed out on opportunity today...

 

Short on the EU currently..

 

I missed this trade because I was in bed.

 

Walked in from my run and saw this long setup on EU.

 

I mised this trade because I was narrowly focused on the UJ (the EU trade and the UJ trade triggered at right about the same time).

 

Also, there were obviously some great upmoves on the GU and UJ that I'm sure somebody made money with.

 

At least I came out with something. I haven't had a losing trade yet this week! ...don't worry, I know that can be dangerous for my emotions for when I do get losers, etc...

 

This will be the last day I post my FXCM trade window...I realize this isn't the P/L thread. I will just post it again today so nobody thinks I "decided" today I wouldn't post it anymore because I was trying to cover up poor results.

 

From now on, I'll do my best to keep my posts in line with the original purpose of this thread:

 

I thought it would be interesting if we had a thread where we could all post charts of potential price moves in real time...

 

I know the people here don't necessarily care about my daily progress, updates, etc. I might give an update or two here and there in the future, just not every day/every other day!

 

----------

 

Question:

 

Thales (or anyone else using FXCM)...

 

When I'm in a trade and I set profit targets, what happens is this: Say I'm in a short position for 200 contracts. Then I have two PT's...100 contracts each. If those get triggered, what happens is that I'll be short 200 contracts AND long 200 contracts...rather than "closing out" 100 contracts each time. Then I have to "Close All for Symbol" once the trade is "done."

 

Is this what you do, or is there a way to make it so it "closes out" of the short, rather than going long?

 

Thanks,

 

Cory

Edited December 30, 2009 by Cory2679
typos

[fxThunder 10]

EU long trade update:

 

moved trailing stop on EU long to 1.4329, below the last swing low.

[fxThunder 10]

EU long trade:

 

Update:

 

Exited at 1.4329 - got within 1 tick of my PT - close but not close enough

[Cory2679 11]

I'm currently in a short position on the UJ that has hit PT1.

 

The trade's done...made an average of 11.3 ticks.

 

That's it for me today.

 

----------

 

I just had a realization while thinking about leverage, etc. It doesn't necessarily matter how many ticks you make because 15 ticks can equal 50 ticks in terms of $$, provided that you are managing your risk per trade as a % of account equity.

 

On the same token, it doesn't necessarily make sense to measure performance on how much $$ you make, because that can just be manipulated by position sizing.

 

(Hopefully this makes sense.)

 

So, I guess what DOES matter:

 

- Consistency

- Using leverage that is appropriate.

- Making a reasonable number of ticks...enough to cover commission, spread, etc.

- Having the best risk:reward possible/having the highest win-rate possible (have to have a balance here).

 

SO, my point/conclusion is...money/income is in a way a separate issue from trading itself...in a way...

 

I've read things similiar to what I've just said before, but I've come to realize it in a new way I think.

 

Just my

 

Have a good rest of the day!

 

-Cory

[thalestrader 14]

I just had a realization while thinking about leverage, etc. It doesn't necessarily matter how many ticks you make because 15 ticks can equal 50 ticks in terms of $$, provided that you are managing your risk per trade as a % of account equity.

 

On the same token, it doesn't necessarily make sense to measure performance on how much $$ you make, because that can just be manipulated by position sizing.

 

When I was writing about position sizing yesterday, I had written, but deleted prior to posting, the following thought:

 

What position sizing does is that it shows leverage for the red herring that it is. Those who have not realized that position sizing is the proper approach to money management get caught up in discussions of what constitutes appropriate leverage. For a day trader who is carrying no overnight risk, leverage is not the concern. The concern is equity-at-risk. Equity at risk is a measure of the position size(Entry - Stop Loss). This is not to say that leverage does not exist, of course it does. But what it does mean is that leverage is not nearly as important as the "traders" posting to ET would have you think. Leverage only becomes a danger when you fail to use position size to control your risk.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

This will be the last day I post my FXCM trade window...I realize this isn't the P/L thread. I will just post it again today so nobody thinks I "decided" today I wouldn't post it anymore because I was trying to cover up poor results.

 

I see no reason for you not to post your daily PnL. That is for you to decide. I'm thinking of starting another small micro account myself showing a daily or weekly PnL on it (I'm considering doing a $200-$300 account and trade it using super crazy rodeo clown leverage, or rather, position sizing). Just to have some fun and see how long it takes me to blow it up.

 

I know the people here don't necessarily care about my daily progress, updates, etc. I might give an update or two here and there in the future, just not every day/every other day

 

I'm very interested in hearing how you are doing day to day, and I am very sure I am not alone. You decide what is best for you, but base it on you, not on what you think about what I or anyone else in this thread has to think about it. I am not a thread dictator. If I think something is out of line I'll let you know. If you think it benefits you to tell us about your progress, then you should tell us. I know I have benefited from participating here on a daily basis. I have found it very beneficial to put my thoughts together in a way that allows me to communicate them to others so that others can understand what I am

doing. I think you are helping the original intent of this thread more than you know.

 

Thales (or anyone else using FXCM)...

 

When I'm in a trade and I set profit targets, what happens is this: Say I'm in a short position for 200 contracts. Then I have two PT's...100 contracts each. If those get triggered, what happens is that I'll be short 200 contracts AND long 200 contracts...rather than "closing out" 100 contracts each time. Then I have to "Close All for Symbol" once the trade is "done."

 

Is this what you do, or is there a way to make it so it "closes out" of the short, rather than going long?

 

Thanks,

 

Cory

 

Cory, this is the problem with having to use FXCM UK instead of US. The UK has "hedging" enabled, which is basically a scheme to get folks to do stupid things that benefit the market maker's bottom line. In the US, hedging was banned by the NFA, so when you entered a position, you could enter it with one order and use two TP's to scale out. Now, with FXCM UK, all accounts are hedging enabled, and they will not let you turn it off, at least not on the Micro accounts. So, what you have to do is enter two positions when you trade (each fo one half the size you intended. This way, each half will have its own take profit porder attched to it. You can also right click on the open positon, and click on "close position." You can there adjust how much of the position you wish to close, and you can close half manually if price reaches your profit target.

 

Again, this is another area where trading retail forex is much sloppier than trading currency futures.

 

Strange, but true.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[rcossey73 10]

 

But on another note, one of the ideas i've been throwing around for managing stops (to allow for bigger runners) was that on every candle that made a higher close than the candle before or a lower close than the candle before that I would trail stops to the high/low of that candle to lock in profits and reduce risk.... Just seems like a logical way to trail stops (if you're into that sort of thing) after price proves that it has advanced in favor.

 

So in these examples you can see on the runners, you just keep trailing down and down and down (each candle with a number is a candle you would trail stops on to the H or L of it). Which has the potential to hold on for even bigger profits rather than taking targets (if you're into that kind of thing).

 

But what I really like it for is the ability of it to protect you when its not going to work for you.... Obviously in this failed trade you could avoid a loss 13 ticks bigger than you possibly would have too.

 

Cheers!

 

I do this most of the time, once my first profit target is hit I move my stop to the low/high of 2 candles back and continue to move it as new candles complete until I see some reason (resistance) to go ahead and exit or my stop gets hit. In a very fast moving market it is often challenging to keep up with though. I will try to grab an example or two next week when I get back to trading.

[fxThunder 10]

I am currently watching this potential short setup on EU. I was stalking a long on UJ earlier but it became to choppy for my liking.