Reading Charts in Real Time

[Cory2679 11]

I don't know about you guys, but I am just raking it in on the UJ right now. :o

 

EDIT: Just so no one who's reading this later takes this the wrong way, I've attached the current chart...

 

The only things that've looked worse recently (with what I watch) are the GU&EU on Christmas eve...that was interesting.

Edited December 28, 2009 by Cory2679

[Cory2679 11]

EU potential short.

 

I got stopped @ breakeven...even though on this chart it doesn't look like it even got close to the entry. Maybe I need work on my handling of the trade with the FXCM platform.

 

What I'm doing is...if for example I'm getting short...I set the chart to the "bid" prices, then put my entry at 1 tick below the low. For my stop-loss, I set the chart to the "ask" prices and put my stop loss order at one tick above the high.

[thalestrader 14]

I got stopped @ breakeven...even though on this chart it doesn't look like it even got close to the entry. Maybe I need work on my handling of the trade with the FXCM platform.

 

This would have been a breakeven for us as well.

 

What you might find yourself having to do, Cory, is setting your "break even" stop loss at a point that is entry +/- the rounded up spread, e.g. a 1.4395 short entry with a 1.7 tick spread perhaps you would want to use 1.4397 as your BE stop. Otherwise, you will have to live with getting stopped at BE when price never shows a trade anywhere at that price except for in your own account. Of course, once price comes back and threatens our stop and then goes in our favor again, we would move to a true breakeven or better, depending upon where the adverse reaction ended. That is why we have a large number of trades that fall between +2 ticks and -2 ticks in the micro account, while my futures account is usually many +1-0 trades. That bucket shop spread, no matter how thin, is what makes futures much cleaner to trade and manage with swing point +/- one tick stops.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited December 28, 2009 by thalestrader

[thalestrader 14]

On another day, in another year, this may have been a long opportunity if price makes a HH before making a new low.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

On another day, in another year, this may have been a long opportunity if price makes a HH before making a new low.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

 

And just like that, long entry orders would be cancelled, and we would be be back to waiting for the next opportunity.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

Possible short on the EJ, which I didn't take but offers a chance for reentry...

[thalestrader 14]

Current look at the ES.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Current look at the ES.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

ES making a little move ...

 

 

[forrestang 10]

Current look at the ES.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

-----------------

Hey, i traded that!

[Cory2679 11]

Today's Results:

 

2 Trades, Both Breakeven (both on a demo account).

 

I got stopped @ breakeven.........

 

Possible short on the EJ, which I didn't take but offers a chance for reentry...

 

The first trade went ahead down to profit target 1 (without me ).

- a trailing stop of the natural stops would have allowed me to hold for PT1...but I guess better safe than sorry...?

 

Any feedback on my day from anyone is welcome!! I'm watching the EJ, EU, GU, & UJ...trading 8am-2pm EST (will hold to 4pm if in a trade).

 

-Cory

[thalestrader 14]

ES making a little move ...

 

I was out after my last post, but I think that this stop and reverse to long should have been pretty easy to pick up on.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

Any feedback on my day from anyone is welcome!!

 

After being away from the screen for a few hours, one thing I see now is that maybe I could have gotten in earlier on trade #2. Plus, overall, I don't think it was as ideal a setup as trade #1 (EU).

 

I just took a look at the EU...it's still steadily trending downward...it's really ashame to have gotten BE on that trade...

 

I keep replaying today in my head, a little discouraged by having a break-even day, but I've come to the conclusion that overall, I just don't think that during the time I was at the screen, there was a lot of opportunity for me (except if I had held on to that EU trade).

[thalestrader 14]

The first trade went ahead down to profit target 1 (without me).

- a trailing stop of the natural stops would have allowed me to hold for PT1...but I guess better safe than sorry...?

 

Only you can answer that question. Some wold not be at all happy with many break even stops on trades that ultimately went to target. Others are happy to be stopped at break even often, for the chance to partici[ate in those opportunities that reward large and reward quickly. You have to find what fits your desires. You might want to re-read the Rod Roth essays from one of the weekend reading installments from a month or so ago. He expains what I am trying to say far better than I.

 

Any feedback on my day from anyone is welcome!! I'm watching the EJ, EU, GU, & UJ...trading 8am-2pm EST (will hold to 4pm if in a trade).

 

I thought the EU short was a reasonable trade, and my own result had I traded it would have been the same as yours - breakeven, though the market ultimately did move to PT1.

 

The EJ trade would not have been for me. I still see price as consolidating at the highs, and I would not be looking for a short until either price made a decisive new impulse high ("thrust" in the terminology of John Hill) with a clear 123 reversal, or price breaking down through the most recent base and into the territory of the penultimate base folr a "1" low, followed by a rally into a "2" lower high, with a break of the "1". I might, under normal market conditions, be tempted to short a break of the NY session's low, but these are not normal liquidity conditions, so I am more than happy to just watch.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

You might want to re-read the Rod Roth essays from one of the weekend reading installments from a month or so ago. He expains what I am trying to say far better than I.

 

I will, thanks.

 

The EJ trade would not have been for me. I still see price as consolidating at the highs, and I would not be looking for a short until either price made a decisive new impulse high ("thrust" in the terminology of John Hill) with a clear 123 reversal, or price breaking down through the most recent base and into the territory of the penultimate base folr a "1" low, followed by a rally into a "2" lower high, with a break of the "1". I might, under normal market conditions, be tempted to short a break of the NY session's low, but these are not normal liquidity conditions, so I am more than happy to just watch.

 

I agree with you...I believe I forced this trade. After having only the break-even EU trade, and the fact that it was getting "late" in the trading day, I think I was desperate to make some money so that I wouldn't have a BE first day of "serious" demo trading.

 

You'll notice that I initially didn't even take the trade in real-time, but decided to jump in when the market offered a "second chance" to enter.

 

When I first saw it, I knew it wasn't ideal, but after my state of mind had been altered by the 1 breakeven trade, I took the trade.

 

Also, just looking back at the analysis I posted, my analysis for the EU was "better" and more thorough (coupled with you and ziebarf...I can't take 100% credit for the analysis ). My analysis for the EJ honestly basically consisted of throwing up a 4 hour chart and looking for an excuse to get in.

 

I'm honestly a little ashamed/embarrased. :embarassed:

 

I'm glad to have experienced this today and hopefully learn from it, while not risking any real money (although, it would have been BE anyway).

Edited December 29, 2009 by Cory2679

[thalestrader 14]

I agree with you...I believe I forced this trade. After having only the break-even EU trade, and the fact that it was getting "late" in the trading day, I think I was desperate to make some money so that I wouldn't have a BE first day of "serious" demo trading.

 

1) You do not need to make money everyday

 

2) You do not need to trade everyday

 

3) a. if you are serious, your goal is to make trades in accordance with your defined entry and trade management guidelines, not to make trades for the sake of making trades.

 

b. if you are serious, then your goal is also to avoid trades that do not fit your defined entry guidelines.

 

c. if your are serious, and you seek to trade only when your defined opportunities present themselves, then the profits will take care of themselves.

 

4) If you have a specific $$/day goal, you are not ready for this. Your goal is to trade well and protect you capital. Not to make $500/day. Trade with discipline, and the profits will take care of themselves. I have a friend who starts every month with just 8K in his trading account. Most months, he will finish with about 24K +/- in his account. He does not make $800/day. He makes $50 one day, loses $600 the next day, and makes $2300 the third day. Over the course of a month, he does average $800/day. But he does not have that as a goal. His only goal is to trade the TF according to his defined plan. So long as he does that, he has no need to worry about how much he made or lost on any particular day or even any week.

 

5) If you are getting outside pressure (e.g. family, girl friend, wife, in-laws, etc.) who are dubious of your chosen vocation and demand constantly to know "how you are doing," stop them right now. If you feel, for some reason, you owe them progress reports, then it should be no more frequent than monthly, and quarterly would be better. There is enough pressure without having to recount the blow by blow every day to anyone other than yourself.

 

6) You should be ruthless with yourself as far as doing your own daily assessment of how you did. Do not beat yourself up for not making a specific $$ profit. But do beat yourself up for forcing trades because you felt you need to make a specific $$ profit for the day.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

I just took a look at the EU...it's still steadily trending downward...it's really ashame to have gotten BE on that trade....

 

That trade has been over for almost 9 hours. What the EU has done since is not relevant to that trade.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

But do beat yourself up for forcing trades because you felt you need to make a specific $$ profit for the day.

 

Don't worry, I am! I don't think I necessarily have the problem of feeling like I need to make a specific $$ profit for the day in general, it's just that I (wrongly) wanted to "start the week right" for the last week before I go live...and I ended up doing quite the opposite as a result.

 

That trade has been over for almost 9 hours. What the EU has done since is not relevant to that trade.

 

I know...I'm getting a little carried away...dwelling on my trades from this morning. Right now, I'm going to just do something else and start fresh in the morning.

[DaKine 10]

Possible 6e short

 

 

My issue is this, broke out of longer term range and market is finding S above/at prior R @ 1.4416, market looks like it wants to get to 1.4500. I am also unsure if this is just congestion after the b/o in which case I would be selling right into interim S and my stop is just adding fuel to the move up...

 

Short 1.4415 possible T1 @ midpoint of range 1.4380 or bottom of range which to me is less likely at 1.4350

Stop 1.4437

 

Comments appreciated.

Update:

 

 

So I took this sim short and there are a couple of things I'm not too happy about.

 

My short was right into a mini congestion area and good volume came in at the low...

 

Edited December 29, 2009 by DaKine

[DaKine 10]

Took a stop on that trade and flipped long target 1.4500

1.4438 Entry 1.4409 Stop

 

 

Comments appreciated...

Thanks

[thalestrader 14]

Here is the current EURJPY. If I were a betting man, and I were inclined to bet, I'd be looking for the EJ to continue toward 132.50 and possibly higher ... The more I look at this, the more it looks to me as though EURJPY should breakout to that 132.50 level, at which point I would not be surprised to see price retrace 1/3-2/3 of last week's rally. That is just the way it looks to me, and I have been wrong a bunch of times, and I am not trying to predict, nor even anticipate that any of this will happen. I'm just looking at it and writing out what I see at the moment.

 

EURJPY has sprinted (after wandering around the starting line for a long time) to 132.50.

 

Now, we wait and see. Higher targets are easily seen and for this pair, easily within reach. A decline to 130.00 - 131.00 would not be surprising. And, this rally may be terminal, so a decline to new lows could be at hand. But, a rally to new recovery highs can also not be ruled out. In other words, we watch and wait. We would trade our defined opportunities as they present themselves, while keeping an awareness of where price is in the big scheme of its recent range (125.xx - 139.00).

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

 

 

 

[thalestrader 14]

I posted this ending diagonal on the EURUSD some days ago. The initial rally out of that pattern has reached a point where it could be ready for a rest, if not an outright reversal.

 

The ending diagonal on all time frames can be a very easy pattern to trade. It presents itself well ahead of the time at which you would take a position, and it typically offers a decent risk/reward.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[DaKine 10]

Stopped on the SAR trade...

 

Thales, is there anything that would have had you off the sim trades I made. The first trade I can see why that may have not been the best as I am shorting right into previous R now S. The SAR on the breakout of the H would you have been off that because of the overextended nature of the move and as you said maybe ready for a rest?

 

I was thinking the first short would retrace more...

 

How about the 1.4420 short is that something you would have taken?

 

Thanks...

 

[Cory2679 11]

My Morning:

 

I had 2 trades today...both winners.

 

I didn't post charts in real-time because there had already been posts about these pairs and I didn't want to be redundant (I know I sometimes flood the thread with my posts...this will likely be my only post today).

 

Trade 1 (EU) resulted in an average of 37.35 ticks.

 

Trade 2 (EJ) resulted in an average of 25.1 ticks.

 

NOTE: The second half of Trade 2 (EJ) got stopped at PT1, even though it doesn't appear that it had gotten there yet on the chart.

 

Total: 62.45 ticks. The $$ results are with "super crazy rodeo clown" leverage, with the $5,000 demo account.

 

----------

 

EDIT: If anyone is raising an eyebrow at the inconsistency between my "62.45 ticks" and the "46.7 gross P/L ticks" in my image, in order to calculate the ticks for our purposes here (62.45 ticks), I did the following calculation:

 

EU: 50.5 + AVERAGE(-0.2, -26.1) = 37.35, etc....

 

The 46.7 just applies to the total gross ticks for the total amount of money traded...but I am calculating the total number of ticks "per trade"...if both of my trades would have been the same size, there wouldn't be the inconsistency...

 

----------

 

BTW, I found a convenient "forex profit calculator" on Oanda's website, for anyone who might be interested...it's helpful if you're defining your risk as a % of your account equity: Profit Calculator | Calculate Forex Profit - OANDA FXTrade

 

I'm going to spend the rest of the morning/afternoon reviewing, then I'm leaving in 2-3 hours and I won't think about trading again until tomorrow!

 

--------------------

 

Questions:

 

I think for a small daytrading account 1-2% is a good risk parameter, though .5% is probably ideal.........

 

Does this mean that whether you have an intial risk of 15 ticks or 50 ticks, the initial $$ risk is the same?

 

As the account has grown, her % risk has steadily decreased.

 

Did you have any type of formula for this? For example, for every 20% return on the account (compounding), reduce risk as a % of account equity by 0.5%.

 

I'm just trying to get straight what I want to do beginning next week.

 

Thanks,

 

Cory

Edited December 29, 2009 by Cory2679
"EDIT" & Grammar

[thalestrader 14]

EURJPY has sprinted (after wandering around the starting line for a long time) to 132.50 .... we watch and wait. We would trade our defined opportunities as they present themselves, while keeping an awareness of where price is in the big scheme of its recent range (125.xx - 139.00).

 

 

 

 

Sometimes this is even easier than it is. EURJPY has declined to first target.

[thalestrader 14]

I posted this ending diagonal on the EURUSD some days ago. The initial rally out of that pattern has reached a point where it could be ready for a rest, if not an outright reversal.

 

And here again, this is sometimes easier than it already is.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales