Reading Charts in Real Time

[lblanks 10]

Three potential trades 2 already triggered

[Cory2679 11]

Currently short the GU...stop is at break-even...

 

UPDATE: I made my PT's slightly closer/more conservative...

 

UPDATE2: Stop moved for half of the position...

 

UPDATE3: Oddly enough, PT1 has filled (although it would not appear so on my Ninja chart)...stop on the remaining half is at break-even...

 

UPDATE4: Stop moved tighter...I've posted a MT4 chart for this update because my Ninja connection has quit on me...

Edited November 22, 2010 by Cory2679

[Cory2679 11]

Currently short the GU...stop is at break-even...

 

UPDATE: I made my PT's slightly closer/more conservative...

 

UPDATE2: Stop moved for half of the position...

 

UPDATE3: Oddly enough, PT1 has filled (although it would not appear so on my Ninja chart)...stop on the remaining half is at break-even...

 

UPDATE4: Stop moved tighter...I've posted a MT4 chart for this update because my Ninja connection has quit on me...

 

FINAL UPDATE: Ninja's back online...I squeezed my stop tight on the second half (possibly too tight) and got stopped out for some profit...

[Cory2679 11]

Currently short the EJ...stop has been moved tighter...

 

UPDATE: Stop moved to break-even...

 

UPDATE2: Stop moved tighter and locking in some profit...

 

UPDATE3: Stop moved again...

Edited November 23, 2010 by Cory2679

[Cory2679 11]

Currently short the EJ...stop has been moved tighter...

 

UPDATE: Stop moved to break-even...

 

UPDATE2: Stop moved tighter and locking in some profit...

 

UPDATE3: Stop moved again...

 

FINAL UPDATE: Stopped out for some profit...

[Justaguy 10]

The AJ trade I had mentioned in my previous post that was at BE was stopped out at BE. No harm.

 

Looking over a handful of charts, I found a short term trade in the AU setting up on the 1 hour. Comfortable with this trade because of the thrust move down, I anticipated a retrace and decline from the area marked off on the attached chart. Price rallied up nicely to that area and was rejected. Sell limit was triggered.

 

The plan for this trade was selling at 9885, stop above the swing however moved stop around the 9900 level to 9907. The plan was to scale out at 1R, cut stop in half and target the rest to the support area at 9820

 

Scaled out +22 on partial. Final target reached 01:24 New york time for +65 with just shy of a 3R trade. Trade played as planned. Attached chart shows where the scale out and final target was taken.

[Justaguy 10]

FINAL UPDATE: Stopped out for some profit...

 

That is a great move on the EURJPY! Congrats on getting a piece of it.

Do you plan your trades in advance? What I mean is where you will take action on the trade.

[Cory2679 11]

That is a great move on the EURJPY! Congrats on getting a piece of it.

Do you plan your trades in advance? What I mean is where you will take action on the trade.

 

Thanks...I got the precipitous decline I was hoping for, but I unfortunatley squeezed my stop too tight...cut it less than half way to my original profit target (which would have long been filled by now)...

 

I got a little caught up in some sideways movement last week with very little follow through, and I think it is having an affect on me this week (I've had two trades so far this week that both turned out to be decent runners, and I cut the profits both times by squeezing my stops too tight...because I was really expecting little-to-no follow through...I wanted to lock in as much as I could).

 

It depends what you mean by advance...it was "planned" within an hour of taking it...I saw the potential for it when I got on between 6:15AM-6:30AM ET this morning...it filled at 7:16AM...I was not planning for it or anticipating it when I got off the computer yesterday at around 2:30PM.

 

I do mark potential S/R on my charts in advance and watch what price does once it gets there, how it got there, etc., and trade based on that...so yes, I do plan my trades in advance...but I won't necessarily know way ahead of time what my exact entry price will be until closer to the actual trade.

 

EDIT: If you meant planning when I will move my stop, etc., yes, I also plan that...however, part of the plan is to trail my stop by "natural" stops of like-degree...that's where I can mess it up and squeeze too tight...I'll sometimes take a trade off of one degree of swing and erroneously trail by a smaller degree...which will often result in premature stop-outs...it's just one of the virtually limitless list of things I continue to work on.

Edited November 23, 2010 by Cory2679

[Cory2679 11]

Was short the UJ but was already taken out at break-even...I am ok with my decision to go to BE based on the PA, but it was a relatively small swing...so with the 2+ tick spread, the entry being 1 tick below the blue line, and then locking in +1 tick when I got to BE to counter potential slippage, there was just no room for it to breath when I moved my stop to break-even and I got stopped out. Oh well...I'd rather be out wishing I was in than in wishing I was out...I'll just observe what happens now...from the sidelines...

Edited November 24, 2010 by Cory2679

[stpips89 10]

Which came first, the chicken or the egg? I have no idea. But if you ask which came first, resistance or the pin bar, I'd say resistance came first. The "pin bar" did not "set off" the down move. The pin bar is simply a pictorial recording of the move during a specific set of minutes.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Right, but the pin bar signaled that a bearish move was possible, as it showed rejection of a strong resistance level, implying that further weakness was likely. So, while you are technically correct in pointing out that the pin bar itself did not "set off" the down move, it was a warning that down move was a stronger than 50% possibility. I was using the term "set off" as a figurative phrase, not a literal one.

[lblanks 10]

EU/USD Instrument

Entered stop order to buy at 1.3420 .

SL at 1.3382

I used 1 target here bc I dont see much resistance until 1.3520

BE stop at 38 ticks

[lblanks 10]

Wow! Filled at 10:45 am Stopped out for a 76 pip loss (38 x2 contracts) on the VERY NEXT BAR! It would be hard to do that again if I tried. Not exactly the start I had hoped for....Any thoughts on what I did wrong?

[Cory2679 11]

Currently long the UJ...I've moved my stop tighter once so far...

 

UPDATE: Stop moved to break-even...

 

UPDATE2: Stop moved for 1/3 of the position (I posted the 1-minute chart for this update to show more detail)...

 

FINAL UPDATE: I was stopped on 1/3 of the position where I had I moved my stop for a tiny profit, and at break-even for the other 2/3...

Edited November 24, 2010 by Cory2679

[Cory2679 11]

Wow! Filled at 10:45 am Stopped out for a 76 pip loss (38 x2 contracts) on the VERY NEXT BAR! It would be hard to do that again if I tried. Not exactly the start I had hoped for....Any thoughts on what I did wrong?

 

I can't tell you what you did right or wrong as far as your strategy is concerned, and you have to take what I say with a grain of salt as I am not yet a successful trader, but I'll share with you my thoughts on that trade (I was watching the same market and did not consider that entry for a trade)...

 

You can see on the 240 minute chart that we had recently tested potential major resistance. Then, if you look at the 15 minute chart, I've drawn 3 blue lines...3 potential longs or adds to longs...

 

The first blue line I would have probably taken had I been up (although the EUR/JPY would have been better). The second blue line I was up for, but I didn't take it because I didn't like the way price was approaching the potential entry (I drew a picture in paint to explain what I mean).

 

By the time that third blue line was being approached, all I was thinking about is how that blue line may serve as resistance...particularly due to the lack of momentum that price was exhibiting as it approached it...in fact, if I had been long at either of the other 2 blue lines, I would have likely been taking some profit at the third blue line.

 

I could have been wrong and price could have blown through the third blue line to enormous gains...but the PA leading up to it did not make it appealing to me.

 

Again, take what I say with a grain of salt.

Edited November 24, 2010 by Cory2679
mistake

[Cory2679 11]

You can see on the 240 minute chart that we had recently tested potential major resistance. Then, if you look at the 15 minute chart, I've drawn 3 blue lines...3 potential longs or adds to longs...

 

That should read: "we had recently tested potential major support"

[blueberrycake 10]

Any thoughts on what I did wrong?

 

Two quick thoughts:

 

1) Price tested the resistance level and immediately fell back -- a common phenomenon. In my experience, if you want to buy a break of a resistance level, your two best options are either a) wait for price to hold above resistance for a few bars or b) move past resistance by a reasonable amount, pull-back, then signal continuation (e.g. break of pullback bar). I've found option (b) to yield more satisfying results in my own trading.

 

2) If you go up a timeframe (60 min), you see a normal correction in a strong downtrend. Trends that run counter to the higher timeframe trend have a higher chance of being abortive.

 

-bbc

[lblanks 10]

I am working my way through this thread and I came across post 657 (See 2nd chart attached) The analysis Thales uses seems to be the sames as mine. Thales could you help me understand this please? Am I doing something fundamentally wrong or did I just lose?

[thalestrader 14]

Wow! Filled at 10:45 am Stopped out for a 76 pip loss (38 x2 contracts) on the VERY NEXT BAR! It would be hard to do that again if I tried. Not exactly the start I had hoped for....Any thoughts on what I did wrong?

 

I would suggest that you do let yourself view losing trades as mistakes. You can do everything right, and trade according to the best laid plan, and you will still experience losses. You bought a break of a prior high. If that is your plan, then you didn't do anything wrong. Had price carried to 1.3520, you'd have been patting yourself on the back for having done the right thing. Well, why should the fact that price nicked your entry and reversed be any different. Go ahead and pat yourself on the back for having has the courage to trade your plan.

 

Having said that, there are two points that might be worth noting. First, your entry occurred at the confluence (not sure I like that word but in this case it works) of a prior recent high and a fib resistance level, in this case the 2.618 extension of the first rally attempt off of the overnight low. My own preference is to buy a new high after the first reaction off of a low, shown in the attached chart and marked as low-high-higher low. I will typically strike two profit targets at levels where price action and fibs coincide. As you see, your entry was at what would have been my second profit target.

 

As I said, that does not make your entry a mistake. The second point I'd like to make is that while I do not believe your entry was a mistake, I am not so sure about your stop loss selection. I am not at all sure how you selected your stop loss. Furthermore, I wonder if you perhaps did not appreciate enough what your long entry was up against at that point. Perhaps you may have chosen a much closer stop loss than 38 ticks. Yu may even have then seen that you should have possibly stopped and reversed as price action at that point etched out a fairly clear 2B short, (clear even in real time) to the impartial eye.

 

So in my opinion, if you made any mistake at all, it was on your exit (you waited too long to pull the rip cord), and not on the entry. But, if your plan is to buy breakouts of prior highs/lows by one tick with a 38 tick stop loss, then I would say you made no mistake. Losing trades are a part of the game. Look back through this thread and you will find plenty of trades where I did everything right and according to my plan, and nonetheless the trade ended somewhere between break even and a loss.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[stpips89 10]

Two quick thoughts:

 

1) Price tested the resistance level and immediately fell back -- a common phenomenon. In my experience, if you want to buy a break of a resistance level, your two best options are either a) wait for price to hold above resistance for a few bars or b) move past resistance by a reasonable amount, pull-back, then signal continuation (e.g. break of pullback bar). I've found option (b) to yield more satisfying results in my own trading.

 

2) If you go up a timeframe (60 min), you see a normal correction in a strong downtrend. Trends that run counter to the higher timeframe trend have a higher chance of being abortive.

 

-bbc

 

Look into a setup called the "fakey setup" it takes advantage of false breaks in the market.

[Cory2679 11]

Potential long on the UJ...

[Cory2679 11]

Potential long on the UJ...

 

UPDATE: Entry filled and stop now moved tighter...it's unfortunately not really taking off...

 

UPDATE2: Moved my stop even tighter...I've pretty much lost hope in this trade, but I'll give it a chance rather than pulling it...

Edited November 25, 2010 by Cory2679

[Cory2679 11]

Potential long on the UJ...

 

UPDATE: Entry filled and stop now moved tighter...it's unfortunately not really taking off...

 

UPDATE2: Moved my stop even tighter...I've pretty much lost hope in this trade, but I'll give it a chance rather than pulling it...

 

UPDATE3: Stop moved even tighter...

 

UPDATE4: I'm tired and going to bed...I was tempted to simply pull this lousy trade, but instead what I'm doing is squeezing the stop very tight, and leaving the trade on while I sleep (so effectively pulling it, but giving it one last chance to make profit)...goodnight!

Edited November 25, 2010 by Cory2679

[Cory2679 11]

Potential long on the UJ...

 

UPDATE: Entry filled and stop now moved tighter...it's unfortunately not really taking off...

 

UPDATE2: Moved my stop even tighter...I've pretty much lost hope in this trade, but I'll give it a chance rather than pulling it...

 

UPDATE3: Stop moved even tighter...

 

UPDATE4: I'm tired and going to bed...I was tempted to simply pull this lousy trade, but instead what I'm doing is squeezing the stop very tight, and leaving the trade on while I sleep (so effectively pulling it, but giving it one last chance to make profit)...goodnight!

 

FINAL UPDATE: I got stopped out for a reasonably small loss, as expected. Price eventually made it to PT1 without me...that hurts because I was honestly at one point planning on just leaving the original SL and PT's and going to bed, but instead I stayed up hours later than I usually do to aggressively manage it...oh well...unfortunately no trading today...holiday...

[lblanks 10]

Thanks everyone for the comments. This thread is truly a gem.

[Cory2679 11]

Looking at this chart, it looks like my stop was squeezed soo tight...almost break-even...but would you believe that I took a 0.44R loss on that?! I probably need to only take larger swings when I'm working with a 2.5 pip spread!

 

EDIT: It looks like slippage played a role, too...although it was less than 1 pip...but it all adds up! haha

 

Edited November 25, 2010 by Cory2679