Reading Charts in Real Time

[thalestrader 14]

Pretty interesting 4hr gbpjpy chart here, note the pin bar that set off this recent downward move from resistance.

 

Which came first, the chicken or the egg? I have no idea. But if you ask which came first, resistance or the pin bar, I'd say resistance came first. The "pin bar" did not "set off" the down move. The pin bar is simply a pictorial recording of the move during a specific set of minutes.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

The GU is approaching the bottom of a recent well-defined trading range...I'm prepared to go long if an opportunity presents itself...

[Cory2679 11]

The GU is approaching the bottom of a recent well-defined trading range...I'm prepared to go long if an opportunity presents itself...

 

Currently long the GU...it may have been premature...I just didn't want to miss out on what I thought could be an impulsive rally off of support...it's not looking too good right now...I've moved my stop tight...

 

UPDATE: After it finally moved some, I took off the tight stop to give it some room...a retry at the low (a L-H-HL sequence) would stop me out with a stop so tight...

 

UPDATE2: Stop @ BE+1 tick (to cover potential slippage)....price struggled with and subsequently barely broke through and backed off the breakdown point indicated by my dotted magenta line...

 

UPDATE3: I'm out with +0.6 ticks (see, it slipped!)...I am not getting the explosive move I was looking for. I'd be willing to re-enter long with the formation of a nice L-H-HL sequence, but we'll see...

Edited November 16, 2010 by Cory2679

[Cory2679 11]

I would consider a short like this on the UJ if it weren't currently in the business of making higher highs and higher lows...

 

Since it is, I'm merely an observer on this potential short...

[Cory2679 11]

Everything seems like kind of a choppy mess right now (to me, anyway). I almost think it wouldn't be that bad of an idea to walk away for an hour or so and come back...with the current environment, I can't imagine taking a trade in the next hour.

 

I dunno...just a thought...I may walk away and just check it every 15 minutes or so...

 

NOTE: I wanted to make it clear that I'm not impying that I'm lazy and don't want to trade/stay at the computer...rather, walking away would be my way of "sitting on my hands" and preventing forced trades, etc.

Edited November 16, 2010 by Cory2679
note

[Cory2679 11]

Currently long the GU...

 

...UPDATE3: I'm out with +0.6 ticks...

 

Potential for a full loss!

 

I would consider a short like this on the UJ if it weren't currently in the business of making higher highs and higher lows...

 

Since it is, I'm merely an observer on this potential short...

 

It's good to be an observer! Potentially a full loss as well.

[Cory2679 11]

Looks like I may have missed a decent short opportunity on the GU...

 

UPDATE: Indeed! I guess I was too focused on a potential long/reversal at support. :doh:

 

UPDATE2: Geez! haha

 

Déjà vu...

 

I'm not sure if you have run across this or not in the past.

 

One solution to this problem is to attempt to take the other side. If looking for a short attempt to build the case for a long. Because your mind is designed with a bias to confirm your current idea this is a useful step.

Edited November 16, 2010 by Cory2679

[Cory2679 11]

Perhaps a potential long on the GU?

 

UPDATE: Moved stop to BE+1 tick...it's not going anywhere...

 

UPDATE2: Stopped for +0.6 ticks...

Edited November 16, 2010 by Cory2679

[Cory2679 11]

Keeping an eye on the EJ as well...

 

UPDATE: Cancelled the long...it just sort of fizzled out and it's getting late in the day anyway...

Edited November 16, 2010 by Cory2679

[Cory2679 11]

It's a little early, but I have my eye on a potential long on the EJ looking something like this...

 

EDIT: I also have this potential long on the UJ on the radar...

Edited November 16, 2010 by Cory2679

[Cory2679 11]

It's a little early, but I have my eye on a potential long on the EJ looking something like this...

 

EDIT: I also have this potential long on the UJ on the radar...

 

UPDATES: EJ never filled and UJ was stopped for a 0.43R loss...

[Cory2679 11]

...UJ was stopped for a 0.43R loss...

 

Sure beats a full 1R loss (or more if I got slipped)!

[Cory2679 11]

I'm done for the night and won't be trading this, but I'm looking at a potential short on the UJ...of course, price could easily go on to make a higher high and never break that low...but we'll see what happened in the morning!

[Cory2679 11]

I'm done for the night and won't be trading this, but I'm looking at a potential short on the UJ...of course, price could easily go on to make a higher high and never break that low...but we'll see what happened in the morning!

 

UPDATE: It had other plans...

[Cory2679 11]

I'm thinking about keeping a trading journal...maybe just in a Word document. After the day is done (or maybe right after the trade), I'd post a chart or charts and give a brief commentary on what I was thinking and what made me take the trade, as well as anything I see in hindsight that I didn't see going into the trade...probably a little more Justaguy-style and a little less Cory2679-style. It sure beats posting every potential trade and posting a thousand updates...it's almost a little hard to follow the way I've been doing it...I've made an effort to make the charts more or less self-explanatory to make up for it a little.

 

I thought I'd start with a rough draft here...

 

----------

 

Trade: Short EUR/JPY, 11/18/2010, 7:13AM Eastern Time

Result: 0.31R Loss

 

 

 

 

The Thinking:

 

I realize that very recently, on the 15 minute chart, the EJ was putting in some HH's and HL's, but it had traded up to resistance, backed off, and given an opportunity to get short. Taking a step back and looking at the 4H chart, price had recently put in a lower low, followed by a failed attempt at the recent high (thus, potentially a lower high...a slight downtrend, perhaps). So, I thought it would be a worthwhile attempt to get short, have one PT relatively nearby, and two more far away to capture a potentially large move down that I anticipated when looking at the 4H chart.

 

Afterthoughts:

 

I still agree with the initial logic...and it may eventually still break down...the only thing I might have done differently is had my BE point at the touch of the trendline...to be honest, I actually didn't have the trendline drawn until I saw price bounce...when it did that, I "saw" the trendline in my head, drew it, and indeed it bounced right at the touch of the TL.

 

----------

 

Again, this is just an idea/rough draft...I'll probably develop a standard format that I follow for each "post"...although this could very well be the final format, who knows.

 

I've been pretty frustrated this week...I'm doing everything I can to keep my emotions in check...it's hard...it's already Wednesday and I'm actualy down almost 0.75R for the week so far. When I said I'm on a quest to have 4 weeks in a row with at least 2.5R per week, the target was not 2.5R...that was just a bare minimum for the week to "count"...I was truly shooting for 5-10R!! I've just been struggling lately. However, it may just be a tough week so far...Monday pretty much doesn't even count because I was way off the wagon...it's not a good representation of me trading my best...yesterday there was basically one opportunity all day and I missed it...it happens...and last night there was nothing......I dunno...haha

[Cory2679 11]

Afterthoughts:

 

I still agree with the initial logic...and it may eventually still break down...the only thing I might have done differently is had my BE point at the touch of the trendline...to be honest, I actually didn't have the trendline drawn until I saw price bounce...when it did that, I "saw" the trendline in my head, drew it, and indeed it bounced right at the touch of the TL.

 

Another afterthought...

 

You know, looking at that 4H chart, you can almost see a big upsidedown head and shoulders...could be bullish...plus the break of the down-trendline...BUT, it didn't manage to break the high, which isn't bullish...I still think that it was worth a try...and I managed to cut the initial risk down by almost 70% before I got taken out...

[Cory2679 11]

I've been pretty frustrated this week...

 

I think I'm frustrated because perhaps I have further to go than I realized.

 

After my post from a couple weeks ago on my log and the subsequent winning week, I honestly anticipated knocking out 4 weeks with 2.5+ net R on this demo account with no problem. It's proving more difficult than I expected (which is pretty pathetic for how long I've been around this thread).

 

Maybe I just need to accept the fact that I have much further to go than I thought and it may be some time before I can knock out 4 weeks in a row with 2.5+ net R...much less 5 or 10 R. And maybe I need to accept the fact that the odds truly are that I will NEVER get there...that the most likely thing to happen will be that I have the next 4, 8, 12, etc. weeks unprofitable.

 

I need to genuinely accept these realities and trade day to day fully expecting losing results...and just try to learn and get better.

 

Just some thoughts...as you can probably tell, I'm a little discouraged/disappointed...

Edited November 17, 2010 by Cory2679

[fxThunder 10]

I think I'm frustrated because perhaps I have further to go than I realized.

 

After my post from a couple weeks ago on my log and the subsequent winning week, I honestly anticipated knocking out 4 weeks with 2.5+ net R on this demo account with no problem. It's proving more difficult than I expected (which is pretty pathetic for how long I've been around this thread).

 

Maybe I just need to accept the fact that I have much further to go than I thought and it may be some time before I can knock out 4 weeks in a row with 2.5+ net R...much less 5 or 10 R. And maybe I need to accept the fact that the odds truly are that I will NEVER get there...that the most likely thing to happen will be that I have the next 4, 8, 12, etc. weeks unprofitable.

 

I need to genuinely accept these realities and trade day to day fully expecting losing results...and just try to learn and get better.

 

Just some thoughts...as you can probably tell, I'm a little discouraged/disappointed...

 

Hi Cory,

 

I think you are so focussed on the outcome of your trades and keeping score that you are forgetting that your success will be found in the processes of trading, ie right now you should probably be working on the process of defining your plan or your take on s/r or whatever else you see you are not clear about and leave the results as a natural outcome of having fine-tuned the various processes of trading to a solid consistent plan.

 

cheers,

fxT

[Cory2679 11]

Hi Cory,

 

I think you are so focussed on the outcome of your trades and keeping score that you are forgetting that your success will be found in the processes of trading, ie right now you should probably be working on the process of defining your plan or your take on s/r or whatever else you see you are not clear about and leave the results as a natural outcome of having fine-tuned the various processes of trading to a solid consistent plan.

 

cheers,

fxT

 

Thanks, fxT. You're right.

[Justaguy 10]

Hey all....

 

Have not been around too much. There has not been anything, for me, of quality so far. The levels I have in mind are further away from current price.

 

That said, I did pull a Forrest Gump move and that was taking a long on the EU@ 3626. Got some life then stopped out...and deservedly so. What did I do wrong? For whatever reason, I ignored or simply overlooked that shorts were the flavor for this pair at this point in time. My plan was perfect...except should have been everything reversed

 

ATM.....short UC @ 14 with a stop a few pips above the swing on the 4hr. Would like to see 9710 but, as the title of the thread suggests, I will be managing this badboy as the chart sees fit. Right now, not very fussy with this trade but will let it play out...

[lblanks 10]

Never posted on a trading site before. Here goes....Looking to go short the EU/USD at about 1.3725. Stop loss would be 60 pips

[Cory2679 11]

Hey Guys,

 

Well, I’m unable to trade this morning…my internet is acting up. It is continually disconnecting, and only allows for brief periods of internet access (one of which I used to make this post). I had to mute my speakers because of the annoying sounds Ninja and MT4 make every time they connect and disconnect. It’s doing it with all the computers in the house. I’ve double checked the connections, unplugged the modem/router, etc. and nothing helps. It’s something that happens very infrequently (with many months separating the incidents), so I’m not too worried about it. I feel sure it will be back to normal this evening. If it’s not fixed by Sunday, I’ll trade somewhere else until it is (I trade on a laptop). I’d have a backup internet connection if I was a real professional (retail) trader trading full-size, but for now I can’t justify the expense.

 

NOW TO THE MAIN TOPIC…I want to address yesterday’s outburst…I was letting my emotions take over. This week was tough for me. Monday I was totally off the wagon with overtrading…it was so bad that I really have no idea how the market behaved that day…lost the forest for the trees (usually I can think back on a week and remember each day). Tuesday and Wednesday were tough as well…the markets I trade had a lot of tight sideways movement during the times I trade, with little-to-no swinging and/or directional moves…there was one blatant exception on Tuesday…one good opportunity that I actually posted after the fact to comment on, but I missed it. It happens. I’ve even seen Thales post trades he’s missed before. It’s not that big of a deal. It’s going to happen again.

 

It looks like there's some good movement today I'm missing out on...from what I can tell...I'm only getting bits and pieces.

 

Other than the short on Tuesday that I missed, I could make a case that it was probably not a bad idea to be completely flat those days. I know Thales has said before something like don’t think you have to have a trade every day. I know he’s said that, and I trust his wisdom, but deep down I know I don’t believe it…if I go a day without a trade, I feel like I’ve definitely missed something, traded poorly, etc. That’s just something I’m going to have to work on. I also have to work on my emotional control…I’m down less than 1R…actually less than 0.75R!...after a couple days of more or less tight chop and I got totally distraught and my confidence plummeted…it’s the end of the world…I must be missing everything and I just can’t trade…I know Thales would be up 7R by now this week…blah blah blah.

 

Also, when there aren’t any good trades available due to tight sideways movement, I tend look hard enough for them that I find them. My mind shifts from “keeping my eyes open for good opportunities” to “trying to predict where the market could possibly go next from here”…very different ways to approach the market…with very different results!

 

I’m going to make mistakes and trip up…the best thing I can do is work hard to keep my head straight and emotions in check, and try to learn something from it. Discouragement, anger, pity parties, etc. are not productive!! I fell off the wagon this week, but I’m confident that I’m back on and back with the program.

 

I couldn’t trade Tokyo last night, I can’t trade today because of the internet, and I won’t be able to trade Tokyo tonight, so I’ll be back Friday NY. However, I won’t resume my posts here until the start of next week.

 

Have a good weekend!

 

Cory

Edited November 18, 2010 by Cory2679

[Justaguy 10]

ATM.....short UC @ 14 with a stop a few pips above the swing on the 4hr. Would like to see 9710 but, as the title of the thread suggests, I will be managing this badboy as the chart sees fit. Right now, not very fussy with this trade but will let it play out...

 

Ok...well...let us see. This trade, as I stated, was not high on my list of good trades. However, I was in it and had to deal with it. Yes, I could have just taken myself out of it but, for the most part, the reasons I took it added up.

 

The trade just played around quite a bit, flirted with my stop a few times then broke south. Problem. In the blue circled area there is a bullish move....rally...basing...rally up. That base was pretty close to my entry price holding up a stop sign if price was going to reach it. I decided to let the trade play out and if it gets a bounce at that area where buyers clearly exceed the sellers, I would go to BE on that trade. There was no other option. Price came right to that level and as anticipated, flew right off it. Stopped out BE. That risk mitigatating move saved me a full loss as it is clear that price would have taken out my full stop.

 

On the daily chart...we have a rally and currently some basing at the previous high. Giving that price did not leave this level, I anticipate there is a balance of buyers and sellers. Which one gets absorbed first...no clue. I have no trade in this pair at the moment. Will let it work itself out. Will see what happens if/when price rallies up to the next drop in price.

[Justaguy 10]

So now that I have put the UC trade to rest, it always frees the mind to find new opportunity.

 

I shorted the AU. Daily chart was sideways. I wanted to find a decent short entry to sell off at resistance. On the one hour chart...posted below....price had previously rallied nicely into the 9900 level. Price then dropped pretty hard from that level. Can see by the spike that the bulls tried to get price back up but the sellers were too strong. This gave me a good area to short if/when price comes back.

 

Saw the level, went down to a lower timeframe to find a higher entry to sell so my risk would be minimized. Price rallied right into the zone, triggered me short. Risk was only 20 pips. As we are coming into the weekend, I wanted to scale out at 3R and then take all risk out of the trade.

 

Before heading to bed, took my 60 pips, stop to BE. Price rallied back up while I was sleeping and then dropped like a rock to my target @ 9818. P1 +60 P2 +92 Very nice trade.

 

Also short on AJ @ 82.56. On the daily chart...price is right at a supply area where price dropped like a rock from. Found a semi decent rally and basing at this level on the four hour chart. Put an order to sell when price came back to it. Sold the retrace. Went to BE @ 82.02 which was a former resistance level turned to possible support. Went to bed. Price has spiked down on the four hour...but I was asleep so took no scale on that trade. Could have done so where I had gone to BE but at that point, there was not a decent R-R.

 

Price on the 4 hour based, dropped and is currently just hanging around. I have move my stop to 52, just above the basing area. Locks in something on this trade. If that gets taken out, I anticipate a challenge at my entry level especially since that base had plenty of bears that helped shoot price lower. That wick tells me there are bulls down in the pit there waiting.....

 

If price heads to the 81.70 wick end, and given the structure support down there, I will take the money and run.

[Gabe2004 10]

Could you leave the price and time axis on your charts?

Thanks