Reading Charts in Real Time

[Cory2679 11]

Potential long on the EJ...

 

UPDATE: Order cancelled...new low...

Edited November 11, 2010 by Cory2679

[Cory2679 11]

Today's a US holiday...and I would normally take the day off...but I've seen good moves on holidays before so I'm going to stick around and watch...and be ready to trade...

 

Scratch that...I'm not going to trade on a holiday...I'll get myself into trouble...I know that since it's a holiday, there's a good chance that there won't be any opportunities for me today...that I should sit on my hands the entire session...and I know I won't! haha...

 

I will stick around and observe, though...and I'll be back ready to trade at the Tokyo open this evening...

Edited November 11, 2010 by Cory2679

[Cory2679 11]

Potential EJ short...

[Cory2679 11]

Potential EJ short...

 

Well THAT was a frustrating trade...if you were watching the EJ, from my earlier post, you would have assumed I'd gotten profit (well, I took some profit...just not at my PT).

 

HOWEVER...I actually moved my PT further away (but didn't post the update)...price came within 0.9 ticks of my new profit target and stalled...I moved my stop tight (as indicated on the 1 minute chart I posted). Ughh...0.9 ticks!!!

 

NOTE: It looks like on the Ninja chart that my new PT filled, but the almost 3 pip spread made it not so.

 

OMG...what's worse...I forgot to take my PT off my platform and it just filled!!! (i just heard the noise while I was typing this) I quickly closed it for less than a tick loss but still!! haha. Whew...:rofl::rofl:

 

NOTE: I probably would have been a little more "aggresive" with this trade (further/multiple PT's, not squeezing the stop so tight, etc.) had I not been halfway expecting a 123 reversal long...I just thought I'd get a quick short in the mean time while I waited for a potential long...but the long didn't happen...

Edited November 12, 2010 by Cory2679

[Cory2679 11]

I had a EJ short in mind like this...though the higher it goes, the less enthusiastic I am...

 

BUT, it won't happen because I'm getting off and heading to bed in about 5 minutes.

 

We'll see what could have been when I get on in the morning.

[Cory2679 11]

I had a EJ short in mind like this...though the higher it goes, the less enthusiastic I am...

 

BUT, it won't happen because I'm getting off and heading to bed in about 5 minutes.

 

We'll see what could have been when I get on in the morning.

 

Couldawouldashoulda...

[Cory2679 11]

Possible short on the GU (with similar situations on the EU and EJ)...price may go on to make higher highs, but I have this short ready just in case it breaks to make a lower low...

 

EDIT: One might also be (even more) tempted to go long...

Edited November 12, 2010 by Cory2679

[Cory2679 11]

Possible short on the GU (with similar situations on the EU and EJ)...price may go on to make higher highs, but I have this short ready just in case it breaks to make a lower low...

 

EDIT: One might also be (even more) tempted to go long...

 

I've actually already pulled out of this long with about 1/3R profit.

 

If you follow my log, you know that I'm currently on a quest to string together 4 weeks in a row of 2.5+ net R per week. Well, with that 1/3R profit, that puts me over 2.5R for the week (2.548, to be exact).

 

This isn't something I would normally want to do, but since it's Friday NY, I went ahead with it. Certainly if it were Wednesday, or even Thursday (or even Thursday evening!), I wouldn't do it. I just think it would be ashame to be up 2.5R, holding out for 3R, only to end up with 2.25R and the week not "counting"...I'd rather just pull it while I have an open equity of 2.5+ R so I can have the week under my belt.

 

I've had sort of a rough week...had a rough first day, had a holiday, and I'm still just getting back in my groove from a venture off into very fast time frames...I'm looking forward to a fresh start next week!

 

Anyways...I posted most of my trades this week...more than half. Some trades I haven't posted because they had already filled by the time I would go to post...but some trades I didn't post because I think I truly knew I shouldn't be in them and I was embarrased to post them. It sounds crazy, but it's true. I must have serious problems. haha Amazingly, on balance, the trades I didn't post netted some profit (<1R I think)...most of the trades I knew I shouldn't be in I got B/E on (probably because I knew I shouldn't be in them and quickly got to B/E at the first chance I got!).

 

I think some of the problem is the transition from fast time frames to trading the main intraday swing...I'm used to action and when there is none, I figure I'm not trading well and I must be missing out. I know this in my head not to be true, but I'm still working on convincing my emotions.

 

But, on balance, I am happy with this week...it was an ok week...profitable...but it was a really great week because I just stuck with it...every day, every hour...I didn't veer from my path that I laid out in my log post from last week...

 

I'm overall very happy...I'm not going to get it perfect, I'm going to make mistakes, I'm going to leave PT's on my platform after the trade has closed! (haha)...but that's ok...as long as I keep to my plan and keep moving foward.

 

Despite some of my mistakes/stupid choices this week, I've managed to keep a positive attitude. I've been doing a lot of reading over TL and I've noticed that when people start getting bad attitudes, start getting negative and having pitty parties, start getting angry and playing the blame game...it absolutely halts progress in its tracks...they even start to retrogress, IMHO. It's just so counterproductive so I want to make a point of keeping my attitude in check...if I start having bad thoughts, I wont' voice them and I won't post them! I'll make the conscious decision to brush it off and move on. Of course, I'm human and I will likely trip up, but I'm going to do my best...that's all I can do.

 

This is for me as much as anyone else...as I'm sure hardly anyone probably follows my posts. haha That's ok, though...I can manage in solitude.

 

I'm simply going to observe the rest of today...I may post a chart, I may not...if I don't see you again before next week, have a good weekend!

Edited November 12, 2010 by Cory2679

[Justaguy 10]

All good things must come to an end.

After a stellar week both in pips and risk/reward trades, I got bit for -25. EURJPY

 

First off...I was not comfortable with this trade from the onset. Shouldawoulda.....stood aside.

 

Weekly chart is butting up into a resistance level. Hanging around the top of that level indicates to me....there are not a ton of willing sellers nor buyers at the moment. Both long and short on the weekly have room to run with the bulls having more "free space" to roam.

 

Daily chart...has visited this support area a number of times. While some believe that makes the level stronger, I am in the opposite camp. The more bounces, the more buyers are absorbed leaving the bears. The level held until today where sellers managed to bust through and then bulls stepped in. There is plenty of free room for the bears if they can hold the south move.

 

My 4 hour chart...posted below......had a level where I had played a long bounce earlier this week. This was not a new area which should have cut my aggressive entry (111.93)

to a conservative entry where I would have waited for price to enter the level and then buy on the exit north. Stop was 111.68 Target was 113.12 Nice risk reward. (VERY tough watching price head to my level but......that is the way it goes)

 

Now, I also had an area further down marked off. In post trade review, given my entry area has been used numerous times, I should have stuck to the one off rule and waited for price below. The buyers at my area were pretty much absorbed on these bounces leaving sellers the stronger army to bust down. They did bust down...strong...into my lower level. I DID NOT have an order sitting there. I did not get into this move.

 

The long was the right play for this setup. The issue is going to the well too often at the same level.

 

Overall, the last few weeks has been very good. Losing 25 pips is nothing due to the fact that my risk reward rules only give me trades where my potential winners have the potential to make over 3x my risk.

 

EDIT.

Just to clarify..on my chart where it says 25R..that is just a note to myself about the risk in pips. It is not an R multiple. That, on that trade, would be almost 5R

Edited November 12, 2010 by Justaguy
Clarify

[Justaguy 10]

This is for me as much as anyone else...as I'm sure hardly anyone probably follows my posts. haha That's ok, though...I can manage in solitude.

:

 

Well, I read them.

 

I don't post pending trades...just trades that happen. I have no issue posting losses so I don't feel the need to rush in and post pending trades. I'd much rather not have anyone following me into battle. I learn so much more from my losses especially when I type the thought process out. Like you, I post mainly for me and if someone gets something out of them, good.

 

Side note....I like your attitude about following your plan and being a great week because of that. I personally feel that is the key. Stick to the plan and the wins will come. the only thing we can know is our risk. From your posts, I think you got a handle on that. Risk first...profit second. Actually, I think that train of thought is what can keep you from too much drawdown during the badtimes. Risk first. Profits second.

 

Thanks for your posts.

[Cory2679 11]

I've actually already pulled out of this long with about 1/3R profit.

 

Looks like I'm missing out! It's up almost 100 ticks from my entry. I'm ok with that, though...I knew the risk...I'm actually just satisfied that I traded a (potential) decent winner.

[Cory2679 11]

Looks like I'm missing out! It's up almost 100 ticks from my entry. I'm ok with that, though...I knew the risk...I'm actually just satisfied that I traded a (potential) decent winner.

 

It's still going! Had I been trading this like normal, I would have likely had PT's at the red lines of resistance I drew (which would have been filled now).

 

Couldawouldashoulda...

 

(This will be my last post for the week. )

Edited November 12, 2010 by Cory2679

[Gabe2004 10]

Stick to the plan and the wins will come. .

 

The above is probabaly the most widely written line in trading forums. The problem is that you don't know that your plan will be profitable untill it proves itself and it is difficult to follow an unproven plan.

 

Gabe

[Justaguy 10]

It's still going! Had I been trading this like normal, I would have likely had PT's at the red lines of resistance I drew (which would have been filled now).

 

Couldawouldashoulda...

 

(This will be my last post for the week. )

 

 

LOL. It's one thing standing aside on a winner. Another thing taking the trade, getting stopped and then full winner at the projected target area. Ah well, I have no issue with my losing trades. The losses are always smaller than my potential wins.

 

I appreciate you coming back to this thread Cory with some substantial and meaningful posts. Always a pleasure.

[Cory2679 11]

The above is probabaly the most widely written line in trading forums. The problem is that you don't know that your plan will be profitable untill it proves itself and it is difficult to follow an unproven plan.

 

Gabe

 

Hi Gabe,

 

That's what demo accounts and/or micro accounts are for, right?

 

Hope all is well,

 

Cory

[Gabe2004 10]

Hi Gabe,

 

That's what demo accounts and/or micro accounts are for, right?

 

Hope all is well,

 

Cory

 

I admit that I don't know the answer to that one.

I find that when I SIM trade or micro accounts I do things that I will not do with a live account.

I believe that after a long time I have come up with a statistically viable trading system with fairly well defined rules but for some reson I cannot follow it, so eventhough I believe that the system is profitable (or could be) I cannot convince myself to follow it because I cannot prove that the system works (by proof I mean make my account grow) so I am at the chicken or the egg dilema.

 

Gabe

[Cory2679 11]

I'm tempted by a potential short on the EJ that looks like this...

 

However, I wish Tokyo were open...right now, the current spread for the EUR/JPY for me is 5+ pips...

 

EDIT: and we have a similar potential short situation on the GU...

Edited November 14, 2010 by Cory2679

[thalestrader 14]

I'm tempted by a potential short on the EJ that looks like this...

 

Would you also consider, perhaps, a long EURJPY that lookslike this ...?

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

Would you also consider, perhaps, a long EURJPY that lookslike this ...?

 

Wow, the MT4 chart looks a lot nicer/clearer than the Ninja chart...they probably start their data at different times for the week, etc. Yeah, (believe it or not) I was actually about to post something similar...but then I was going to say that I feel a bit lost tonight...

 

Sunday evenings are just different than any other day/night of the week (for me, anyway)...I'm just not used to it...

 

I think I might just observe this evening (and "trade" just with lines drawn on the chart)...unless I am just overly compelled to take a position...

[Cory2679 11]

Would you also consider, perhaps, a long EURJPY that lookslike this ...?

 

It looks like the EJ is taking off...

 

I probably should have just said, "Yes, sir." and went long. haha

 

Looking at the 4H chart, you do get a nice, strong reaction off of support and a break of the trendline....like I said, for some reason I was just feeling lost tonight...:doh:

 

I think I'd prob have my stop at BE now had I traded it (with that touch of potential resistance)...

[thalestrader 14]

Would you also consider, perhaps, a long EURJPY that looks like this ...?

 

 

and now looks like this ...

 

 

Same as it ever was ... Support & Resistance, Highs & Lows, Impulse & Chop, etc. & so on ...

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Justaguy 10]

In regards to the EJ...for me...it is sort of floating in no mans land. A range and a pretty ugly one at that. It is interesting on the weekly...are we in a 3rd stage top or another first stage accumulation? That question for me has not be answered.

 

Support was pierced last week and then buyers stepped in but the move north has not had a chance to develop yet. I use the word yet with caution. With so many tests of the demand area and the inability of the second last hit to make a significant move and now the latest, I am not convinced there are many buyers left at that level.

 

There may be some great intraday plays but at the moment, I am digging the longer term plays. Less stress and the price levels have a bit more meaning on the slower time frames as opposed to the 5,15,30. I may take some but they will be at a much much lower risk % than my usual and as more of a practice run.

 

Summary...I have no play at the moment especially on my longer term view.. Once it moves beyond this range, I will reconsider. Unsure, I refuse to risk the sweet gains I made in this pair last week.

 

*These are my opinions following my own plan.

[thalestrader 14]

In regards to the EJ...for me...it is sort of floating in no mans land.

 

After the quick thrust following the Asia open the EJ has again entered a chop zone, though with a LHLL bias, which is another type of "no man's land."

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

Well, my Monday was kind of a mess (I'm now done for the day)...I overtraded like crazy...didn't even bother posting...I had 7 trades total and in the end was very happy to manage to break even for the day...

 

I won't be able to trade Tokyo this evening, so I will be back ready to trade tomorrow morning an hour before the NY open.

 

I seriously need to take the time between now and then to reign myself in before I do any real damage to my account/progress.

 

:deeeep breath: Starting fresh tomorrow morning...it happens...try to learn something from it and move on...

 

On a positive note, I am actually better off for the week right now p/l-wise than I was at the close of Monday last week.

[stpips89 10]

Pretty interesting 4hr gbpjpy chart here, note the pin bar that set off this recent downward move from resistance.