Reading Charts in Real Time

[Cory2679 11]

I'm looking to possibly go long the EU...it has come back to my up-trendline and stalled. Here's how I'm looking at a possible long right now...(subject to change...especially if it keeps falling!)...

 

UPDATE! - Long cancelled...

Edited November 8, 2010 by Cory2679

[Justaguy 10]

Alrighty.

I wanted to get into a swing trade (in FX, that is sometimes the better course of action).

 

The EURJPY gave me some really interesting levels to look at.

 

I have posted the daily chart below. The weekly chart is well off the recent lows and price has rallied into an area with the bulls and bears battled with the bears taking the win.

 

The daily chart has a decent level where price rallied and turned. I zeroed in on the area with a lower time frame to get a higher entry price to sell at. Price rallied nicely (and strongly) into my area and went about 8 pips higher so I did sell at a better price.

 

Small stop with a healthy target. However, just like the title of this thread, I will read the chart in real time and adjust stop if price action shows me. There is a level about 113 that I will keep an eye on for scale out and trail down the stop. Again, I have my entry, my stop, my target and need further price action to guide me to future moves.

 

Also...I am accepting that price can fly north and stop me out. There is plenty of room to run north on the weekly chart. The daily does have a few bumps if it heads north. This is where managing my risk comes into play.

 

Trade still in gear. Scaled out partial at 113.80 for 154 pips. Did not move stop at this time. The most I can lose now is the original stop at 43 pips (115.77). Worst case...total trade will be +111 pips. I do not have a level yet to move the stop to and want to avoid an arbritary move.

 

EDIT: Added in a chart that shows just how powerful certain levels can be. Price dropped right to the area and bounced right off it. The level was 113.00 and in my post at the origin of this trade I typed "There is a level about 113 that I will keep an eye on for scale out and trail down the stop". I scaled out earlier...sort of a knee jerk really as I saw where I was in the reward risk area...banked some profit and took all risk out of the trade. Still no area to adjust my stop to that fits so leaving it as is. Note to self: stick with the original plan...not doing so cost me about 80 pips in extra profit. :crap:

Edited November 8, 2010 by Justaguy
added chart

[Cory2679 11]

I don't think I would oppose a potential long on the EU looking like this...

 

Price didn't make it very far after the most recent breakdown point, plus the EU recently made a new high on the 4H chart (though it was followed by a rather precipitous decline).

Edited November 8, 2010 by Cory2679

[Justaguy 10]

Trade still in gear. Scaled out partial at 113.80 for 154 pips. Did not move stop at this time. The most I can lose now is the original stop at 43 pips (115.77). Worst case...total trade will be +111 pips. I do not have a level yet to move the stop to and want to avoid an arbritary move.

 

Stop moved to 112.35. Area chosen due to sideways action at that level and a large thrust move from that level. Locked in 111 pips to add to the 154 pips from the first position. Target is 112.30

[Cory2679 11]

...potential long on the EU...

 

UPDATE: Order filled and stop moved tighter...

UPDATE 2: Moved stop tighter...I'm not getting the impulsive move I'd hoped for...

Edited November 8, 2010 by Cory2679

[Cory2679 11]

UPDATE: Order filled and stop moved tighter...

UPDATE 2: Moved stop tighter...I'm not getting the impulsive move I'd hoped for...

 

UPDATE 3: I walked away for a few minutes and came back to this...not a happy ending...I guess I didn't consider a short there due to my long bias...

 

I'm also sitting long the UJ (although I didn't post the entry in real-time)...not looking so good...

 

UPDATE ON THE UJ: I've moved my stop tighter.

UPDATE2: I have a stop and reverse play in mind that looks a little something like this...

Edited November 8, 2010 by Cory2679

[Cory2679 11]

I'm also sitting long the UJ (although I didn't post the entry in real-time)...not looking so good...

 

UPDATE ON THE UJ: I've moved my stop tighter.

UPDATE2: I have a stop and reverse play in mind that looks a little something like this...

 

UPDATE3: I pulled the UJ short...I've provided a 1-minute chart to illustrate why.

 

That is likely it for me today...until Tokyo. I've been struggling this morning...3 losing trades (averaging a little under -0.5R each), that's it. I'm not sure what to take away from it...other than I just don't think the market's swinging/trending very nicely this morning and maybe I should just be sitting on my hands...

[steve46 12]

Hello

 

On my back in a hospital bed today (back injury) and nothing to do so I thought I would check this thread out. I am done for the year (hit my targets early), so I am free to post as long as I don't say the magic words (lol)....anyway, with regard to the poster's charts, let me offer the following simple comments

 

First, it seems that (generally speaking) retail traders don't have a way to read the market bias. You really need to start there, then move to your immediate time frame. Second, if you want to obtain a consistent result you need to know the basics....by basics, I mean;

 

Before putting money at risk, a trader should be able to easily read the difference between horizontal development and vertical development (trend). Its not complicated. Horizontal development is price bouncing back and forth within a range. Vertical development up is a series of higher lows, while vertical development down is a series of lower highs.

 

Once you are able to see that simple difference in types of price development, you need to learn to characterize your market. In the market you show (and in many others), you see what I characterize as noisy movement between areas of supply and demand.

 

As the big players move price up and down, they create "islands" of supply and demand (characterized as horizontal development). They can't help but do this because they have size (inventory) that they have to put to work. Smart money sees these "parking places" and tests them. Those tests are places where price moves out of a previous range just a few ticks (looking for resting orders). If they find resting orders they "go with" the momentum that creates. If not, price often retraces significantly because smart money sees that the odds favor the opposite side (at least temporarily).

 

It looks to me like many of you are getting faked out, because 1.) you haven't learned the basic concepts and 2.) You don't understand how institutions and smart money participants operate.

 

I think thats about all I can say without getting myself in trouble.

 

Based on what I am reading here, I would suggest taking some time to rethink my approach.

 

Good luck

[Justaguy 10]

Stop moved to 112.35. Area chosen due to sideways action at that level and a large thrust move from that level. Locked in 111 pips to add to the 154 pips from the first position. Target is 112.30

 

The previous post was incorrect.Typo.

Stop was 114.35 NOT 112.35.

 

Stop is now at 113.65. 1 hour chart is attached and the reason I picked this level is no doubt obvious. Simply buried the stop behind a supply level. Final position is guaranteed +169 to go with the +154 with the other position.

[Justaguy 10]

The EURJPY short has played itself out. Price came within pips of my ultimate target...I placed my stop above the candle that almost made it. Final exit price 112.55

 

The final part of the trade is posted below along with the entry price, first target and the finale.

Total pips on this trade 154 + 279

 

All price. No indies. Supply and demand.

[BlowFish 10]

A while back there was a bit of discussion on Cutis Faith's books. I just thought I would report back and say I am a good portion through the first and am pretty impressed. For a 'system' trader I might even be tempted to use the rather dangerous "must read" expression.

 

Also very impressed with the latest kindle (three). Shame it is not water proof so you can read it in the pool.

[Cory2679 11]

Possible long on the UJ, although I fully expect it to just continue the decline...

[Cory2679 11]

Possible long on the UJ, although I fully expect it to just continue the decline...

 

UPDATE: I've moved my stop and locked in some profit...

UPDATE2: Moved stop on half the position tighter...

UPDATE3: Moved stop on half the position even tighter...

UPDATE4: PT1 filled...

Edited November 9, 2010 by Cory2679

[Cory2679 11]

UPDATE: I've moved my stop and locked in some profit...

UPDATE2: Moved stop on half the position tighter...

UPDATE3: Moved stop on half the position even tighter...

UPDATE4: PT1 filled...

 

UPDATE5: All my dreams have come true. haha Both PT's filled...

 

That more than makes up for yesterday's nonsense. I've got only a 25% win-rate this week so far and I'm back in the green.

 

I am a little disappointed about missing some opportunity today...particularly a short on the GU. I think it was a mix of focusing too much on TL and my UJ trade, as well as my hesistation to have more than one position on at once.

 

Anyways...moving on...

[Cory2679 11]

Both PT's filled...

 

Good grief! It's amazing how easily my satisfaction from a winning trade can turn into disappointment/frustration from missing out! It's like a rocket!

 

That's it for me today...no Tokyo tonight...I'll be back tomorrow morning.

 

-Cory

[Justaguy 10]

After the completion of my EURJPY short as noted above, I found a potential opportunity for a long on the same pair.

The weekly chart was close to a supply level which would make a long a little riskier.

That said, after my short completed, I noted price was dropping down to an area that is not only a "textbook" type of support but also a pretty decent demand level.

I marked off the demand level, as seen on the chart below, with two red lines. (You can see it on the daily as well).

I went to a one hour chart to find a level inside that 4 hour chart demand area.

 

This was a set and forget type trade. I put the order in before I went to bed. Filled at 2:58 in the am.

Entry price was 111.93 and the stop was 111.66...10 pips below the bottom of the demand level. 27 pip risk.

Target was the supply level marked off by the singular red line. @ 112.85 for a 92 pip reward. A little better than a 1-3 risk to reward.

 

The chart below shows that while there was heat at the start...it pushed nicely to full target. There was no scale out in this trade. Given where the weekly chart is, I was only setting up for a quick pop.

 

The EURJPY has handed out some nice pips in two trades. 216 average pips on two scale outs in the short....and 92 pips on the long.

With fresh eyes tomorrow, I will look around for other opportunities.

[Cory2679 11]

Potential EJ short...I'm all-in/all-out on this one (1 PT)...

[Cory2679 11]

Potential EJ short...I'm all-in/all-out on this one (1 PT)...

 

The EJ had other plans...

[Cory2679 11]

I'm currently tracking a short on the UJ (I acknowledge that the entry was not posted in real-time)...

 

PT1 has filled. I'm leaving now, so I'm going to leave it on and have my OCO orders in for PT/SL's.

 

I have a different SL for each half of the position.

 

Fingers crossed! haha

[stpips89 10]

Potential long on the EURUSD off support, pin bar setup off support near 1.3700.

[Cory2679 11]

I'm currently tracking a short on the UJ (I acknowledge that the entry was not posted in real-time)...

 

PT1 has filled. I'm leaving now, so I'm going to leave it on and have my OCO orders in for PT/SL's.

 

I have a different SL for each half of the position.

 

Fingers crossed! haha

 

Just got back...looks like I was stopped on half...and I just moved my stop on the remaining half a little tighter...and moved my PT for the remaining half to PT2.

[Cory2679 11]

Potential long on the EURUSD off support, pin bar setup off support near 1.3700.

 

Can you post a chart?...maybe with some details like where your entry will be, your stop-loss (if you have one), profit targets (if you have them), etc? That's usually how it's done 'round here...I'm interested to see your setup and management (as long as you're willing/able to share it freely...).

[Cory2679 11]

Just got back...looks like I was stopped on half...and I just moved my stop on the remaining half a little tighter...and moved my PT for the remaining half to PT2.

 

I've moved my stop tighter on this remaining third of the original position...and cleaned up the chart.

 

UPDATE: Stop tighter...hoping for a break of support!

Edited November 11, 2010 by Cory2679

[Cory2679 11]

I've moved my stop tighter on this remaining third of the original position...and cleaned up the chart.

 

UPDATE: Stop tighter...hoping for a break of support!

 

UPDATE: Stop tighter, again...support is holding up well....

[Cory2679 11]

UPDATE: Stop tighter, again...support is holding up well....

 

Well I'm glad I moved my stop as tight as I did...the UJ never really went anywhere.

 

I attached a chart of my final results...all three thirds got taken out right around PT1.

 

Today's a US holiday...and I would normally take the day off...but I've seen good moves on holidays before so I'm going to stick around and watch...and be ready to trade...