Reading Charts in Real Time

[Cory2679 11]

Looking at potential EUR/USD long...

 

 

Stop moved to break-even and I'm shutting down for the night (sorry no chart).

[Justaguy 10]

Stop moved to break-even and I'm shutting down for the night (sorry no chart).

 

Speaking of EU, I have a long setup at 3850. Price missed it by 9 pips and has fired up almost 100 pips. Missed trade. Same thing happened on a GU short a few days ago....price just missed the short entry price.

[Cory2679 11]

Speaking of EU, I have a long setup at 3850. Price missed it by 9 pips and has fired up almost 100 pips. Missed trade.

 

You're more ambitious than I...with the two distinct tests of 1.3871 (as shown on my chart), if I were trying a buy of support, I would have been content buying at 1.3871...but that's just me.

 

On another note, my trade from last night actually clipped me out at break-even right after shutting down...(I probably got to break-even a little prematurely, but I can sleep better knowing any open position is at break-even )

 

[Justaguy 10]

You're more ambitious than I...with the two distinct tests of 1.3871 (as shown on my chart), if I were trying a buy of support, I would have been content buying at 1.3871...but that's just me.

 

Hey Cory, thanks for the input.

 

That is what is great about trading. Two traders can look at the same thing and think different. Although I don't look at a 15 min too much, I see your point.

 

Everyone has rules to decide an area for them. My area was chosen because of the small range and then a large bullish move from that area signifying a large imbalance of buyers to sellers. The first test to that area is what I wanted. It would have given a very good r-r ratio(over 1-3) with a definite entry point and definite stop area. Given that price just missed that area, to me, was a good sign. A few more pips and it would have been a painless trade.

 

Taking the order off simply to the way price is heading to that area.

 

My AUDUSD trade, where partial was closed at 108 pips ( see previous posts), is around 60 pips for the second portion. Stop is BE but I may close the rest for the weekend.

[thalestrader 14]

... While a reaction of several hundred pips can occur at anytime, this rally looks intent on carrying for quite a ways...

 

 

Current view of the EURUSD with the action since the 15th looking more like a pullback in its uptrend rather than a top and reversal. Time (and price) will tell ...

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Attila 10]

Current view of the EURUSD with the action since the 15th looking more like a pullback in its uptrend rather than a top and reversal. Time (and price) will tell ...

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Thoughts on USD Weekly?

[Justaguy 10]

So.....here is the GBPUSD 1 hour chart.

 

This is a short off an area where supply exceeded demand in a pretty strong way. Price returned to that level in a strong fashion setting off a short for me. A 1-3 risk to reward trade.

Will see how price reacts at 5719 (if it gets to that area) and take action on this trade.

[Cory2679 11]

Potential long on the EU, with a similar situation on the GU...

 

 

[Cory2679 11]

Potential short on the UJ (off a fairly large swing)...

 

 

[Cory2679 11]

Potential long on the EU, with a similar situation on the GU...

 

Looks like short would have been the way to go...(ughh...I'm distracted this morning).

 

 

 

I think I'm done posting for today.

[Cory2679 11]

Potential short on the UJ (off a fairly large swing)...

 

 

 

I actually think I'm going to put my random posting on hold. No matter how stupid I know it is, I think I care too much what strangers on the internet might think (well, I think I'd call some of you more than "strangers," but you know what I mean). Anyways, for whatever stupid reasons, I get upset when I post a losing trade (more so than just taking the loss)...you saw evidence of this from several days ago when I posted a small loser and had to assure everyone I was profitable for the day by posting my trade journal. I guess I'm insecure. Whatever.

 

But anyways, since I'm not posting consistently, I'm just going to stop posting trades all-together (until further notice, I guess).

 

Here's one last post to go out on...

 

The UJ short opportunity I mentioned earlier may be offering a head start...

 

[Justaguy 10]

So, my GU trade as posted earlier missed my target by mere pips. I have manually closed the position for +140 pips (5750)...about 25 pips less than the target would have been. Better to bank the cash than hope for a push down...which may happen but without me.

 

 

@ Cory....

Let me tell you something....I feel the same way at times...especially the AU trade short I took. Right direction, wrong time. I don't know you or anybody else so really, why should I care what people think? In the end, it is my money...right?

Maybe we have some perverse need for validation. How would I have felt if this GU trade went north since I already put up my trade/targets.......I don't know. I think forums have a use, especially a more professional one like TL. For me, when I saw your post, I was wondering what basis you used to validate that trade. I post for feedback on my logic...maybe I missed something.

But hey, I think you are on the right track by not posting if it is giving your psyche a workout. Afraid to be wrong is not a healthy mindset imho. I know you mean being wrong on a forum but I think that can bleed over.

 

In the end....you did what most don't do. You put yourself out there. I personally appreciate that.

[SIUYA 11]

Cory - I feel the pain of posting losses, it sometimes seems to hurt the ego more than the actual trading of the loss. Remember the market does not care who you are, neither should the anonymous internet. Post for yourself and for others to learn.

If you posted nothing but winners people would not believe you.

funny huh.

 

However, I appreciate the effort and feel more is learnt from the errors than the wins.

[Justaguy 10]

If I could, I would fire myself.

 

A while ago, I posted up a EURUSD long I was waiting for (see red line). Price came within pips of my entry.....and went north for about 200 pips. Missed trade.

 

In that same post I wrote "There is a level a little further up around the 3700 area which may be a nice quick long trade."

 

Was looking for another long opp upon breach of the area I initially looked for long. Price came down to a level I choose, very little risk compared to reward...about 1:4. Price goes to my target.

 

I had marked off this area...with entry and profit area. Went looking at another pair......got sidetracked.....and never entered the buy limit I intended. Another 200 pip missed trade.

 

Frustrated? You bet. The EU has my number!

 

Anyhow..........since the thread is for trades taken and not taken, I am posting the chart to give an idea of what I look for. For those interested of course.

[stpips89 10]

Justaguy,

 

I feel your pain bro, this has happened many times to me as well, sometimes it almost seems like the market actually knows where your stops are to the T. I mean, I can't even tell you how many times I haven gotten stopped out at breakeven by less than 5 pips only to then see the market take off in my original direction by hundreds of pips. It is literally enough to drive you mad sometimes. However, I have gotten better at this over time, and eventually you sort of just learn to accept that this part of trading, its like the cost of doing business. There have also been times where my stop got missed by a few pips and then I went on to net some massive pips.

[thalestrader 14]

... The EU has my number! ...

 

"The market doesn't beat traders ... they beat themselves." - Jessie Livermore

 

Keep up the good posts!

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Justaguy 10]

Justaguy,

 

I feel your pain bro, this has happened many times to me as well, sometimes it almost seems like the market actually knows where your stops are to the T. I mean, I can't even tell you how many times I haven gotten stopped out at breakeven by less than 5 pips only to then see the market take off in my original direction by hundreds of pips. It is literally enough to drive you mad sometimes. However, I have gotten better at this over time, and eventually you sort of just learn to accept that this part of trading, its like the cost of doing business. There have also been times where my stop got missed by a few pips and then I went on to net some massive pips.

 

I think that getting stopped out by a few and then the market go in the way you expected is so much worse than missing the trade altogether! With this type of trading, I have only been poked out of a trade once but managed to get the order back in. Shorter term trading is where I see more of the "stop out and go" type of action. You know, once I started to realize that risk reward is not the only important factor, it allowed me greater freedom to widen the stops out a little bit. My daytrading is a calculation for the stop and target and when I started to take into account structure around the stop area, my results improved large.

 

I am sure you know how hard it is to watch price circle your stop just missing it by a pip or two. Those are tough on the head and that is why I have started to focus a bigger piece of the pie - larger time frames using market structure to trade off of. I still love daytrading faster timeframes but it is with totally different strategy.

 

Appreciate the input!

[Justaguy 10]

"The market doesn't beat traders ... they beat themselves." - Jessie Livermore

Keep up the good posts!

Best Wishes,

Thales

 

Hey Thales

 

LOL...I was more thinking along the lines of Maxwell Smart "missed it by that much", when I wrote that. Intelligent words by Livermore and I am sure the majority of traders should realize that.

Thanks for the feedback on my posts. I have enjoyed doing them.

[Justaguy 10]

Alrighty...

 

EURJPY 4 hour chart.

 

Lots of messy action on this chart. The one hour, one of my faves, is a large mess of chop.

So...what do I see?

Weekly could not make headway above resistance.

Daily had turned down with very little in the way of the 108.00 level.

Given that, I wanted to short this market

Could not gain any perspective from the 1 hour.

The four hour gave me a little better viewl

 

Price rallied into an area where price left in quick fashion. Lots of sellers.

Problem...there is some support just below. The good thing is...that the support level has been hit several times. Depends on if you think multiple hits is a good thing. I take the view that buyers at that level are getting less and less. If you look at the bounces off that level, they have been getting consistently smaller.

 

So.......shorted when price left the area.

Stop just above giving a 47 pip stop loss...not a big deal considering 4 hour.

Price is butting against support...stop is now B.E. Would love to see 108.25 area for profit but there are a few bumps in the way like the 111.00 area. Will keep an eye on this level. Will take partial profit IF I get to 111.27 area.

 

Bottom line...low risk compared to the 1-9 risk reward.

 

Right now...+70. we shall see.

[Justaguy 10]

I have moved my stop to 112.16 locking in 52 pips.

 

Reason? It is not an arbitrary move of the stop.

 

I have posted the chart (1 hour). Market is now sideways close to the area that has provided support a few times in the past. If it breaks above the area in blue, there is not much stopping it from going all the way back up to my entry price. "Reading charts in real time".

[Justaguy 10]

I have moved my stop to 112.16 locking in 52 pips.

 

Reason? It is not an arbitrary move of the stop.

 

I have posted the chart (1 hour). Market is now sideways close to the area that has provided support a few times in the past. If it breaks above the area in blue, there is not much stopping it from going all the way back up to my entry price. "Reading charts in real time".

 

Out at 112.16 for +52

[Justaguy 10]

This trade came up last night and I placed my order to short just after midnight new york time.

 

First off, the GU is, on the daily, for me, is at an area where I would prefer to short at the moment.

 

At this area, price action is pretty messy. I found an area that if price rose to, I would like to short but I wanted to be a little more accurate and grab a tighter stop on this trade. When price spends too much time sitting at a supply/demand level and does not move away quick, for it is a red flag.

 

Enter the 15 minute chart. Found the area I liked with a 19 pip stop and target of 55 pips. This was a set and forget trade. At 5:01 a.m. new york time, price hit my entry price and 50 minutes later, target was hit on some nice bearish action.

 

The target is a pretty obvious area although, my post trade review does have the proper profit area lower down where price did head and then rejected quite strongly.

 

All in all..happy with this trade.

[thalestrader 14]

Current view of the EURUSD with the action since the 15th looking more like a pullback in its uptrend rather than a top and reversal. Time (and price) will tell ...

 

Current view of the EURUSD has the pullback ending followed by a spurt to new rally highs.

 

This is the daily chart. I'll post the weekly chart this evening, which will show that price is rallying toward a multi-year downtrend line. I expect price to break above this trend line eventually, though I would also not be surprised by a larger correction prior to breaking up to challenge the the all time high at 1.6038.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

Hey Guys,

 

For those of you who don't view my log but are/were regulars here in the Reading Charts in Real Time thread, my most recent post may be of interest to you. I was actually tempted to post it to this thread rather than my log, but it's fairly lengthy...

 

It's been about a year since I joined Traders Laboratory and first discovered thalestrader's "Reading Charts in Real Time" thread...and what I'll call the Thales Chart Method...

 

I'm simply looking back on the year and evaluating my performance and where I am now...and I have a plan of action for the future.

 

I plan to begin posting here regularly again starting next week. I probably won't post every trade I take, but I'll post as many as reasonably possible...and as close to real-time/ahead of entry as reasonably possible. I'm not here to prove myself to anyone.

 

I believe that posting to this thread again could do me some good (as long as I keep my emotions in check).

 

See you next week!

 

-Cory

[Justaguy 10]

Alrighty.

I wanted to get into a swing trade (in FX, that is sometimes the better course of action).

 

The EURJPY gave me some really interesting levels to look at.

 

I have posted the daily chart below. The weekly chart is well off the recent lows and price has rallied into an area with the bulls and bears battled with the bears taking the win.

 

The daily chart has a decent level where price rallied and turned. I zeroed in on the area with a lower time frame to get a higher entry price to sell at. Price rallied nicely (and strongly) into my area and went about 8 pips higher so I did sell at a better price.

 

Small stop with a healthy target. However, just like the title of this thread, I will read the chart in real time and adjust stop if price action shows me. There is a level about 113 that I will keep an eye on for scale out and trail down the stop. Again, I have my entry, my stop, my target and need further price action to guide me to future moves.

 

Also...I am accepting that price can fly north and stop me out. There is plenty of room to run north on the weekly chart. The daily does have a few bumps if it heads north. This is where managing my risk comes into play.