Reading Charts in Real Time

[Cory2679 11]

Stopped out for break even. :crap::crap::crap:

 

Perhaps I was too quick to get to break-even.

 

My main regret is that perhaps I should have taken some profit at that level of support, rather than just "keeping it in mind."

[DugDug 10]

Cory - this is one thing I have pondered.... taking profits early, letting things run.

What ever you decide - make it consistent. Thales is very active and it works for him, quickly trailing. Otherwise, if you are to let it run, be prepared for a lot more scratch trades where a profit turns into BE.

 

As a few thoughts -----on your chart I noticed - there is a big range between the entry and the stop -on this larger than recently normal volatility my thoughts would be to take profits quickly.... in the case you looked at, most likely at the 50% retracement of the recent run up from 136.40 to 18.19.

Also given that the EUD has made a new high over the recent days.... this would imply a touch more bullishness, and hence I would be looking to take profits on any shorts quicker.

[DugDug 10]

Also 6EM0 is looking interesting from a trend trading perspective.

(I assume the spot is similar)

Breaking new highs over the last 20-25 days.(one measure that people use) You may see people covering shorts, getting long. Just something to keep in mind.

[Cory2679 11]

Also given that the EUD has made a new high over the recent days.... this would imply a touch more bullishness, and hence I would be looking to take profits on any shorts quicker.

 

Also 6EM0 is looking interesting from a trend trading perspective.

(I assume the spot is similar)

Breaking new highs over the last 20-25 days.(one measure that people use) You may see people covering shorts, getting long. Just something to keep in mind.

 

I am overall bullish...however, I was expecting a retest of the recent low before a continuation upward...but that may very well not happen...I anticipate the next high will be around my red rectangle (major resistance). You can also see on this chart where my PT was relative to the larger swings.

 

EDIT: Sorry, forgot the chart...it's attached now.

Edited March 17, 2010 by Cory2679
chart

[Cory2679 11]

...I was expecting a retest of the recent low before a continuation upward...

 

The current down-move is renewing my belief in a retest...

 

I believe I may have misinterpreted the swing degree this morning.

 

However, I still think it was probably reasonable to be out...a pretty strong up-move, plus a break of that first down-trend line...of course, it would have been nice to take at least some profit out, though.

[richbois 10]

Looking at the EURUSD chart and today being a SS day, We have just concluded a near perfect textbook 3 day cycle. Mar 15 the Buy day concluded the decline and started the rally as per TTT. Mar 16 continued the rally and started to consolidate. Mar 17 we get the last bit of rally and the decline starts all over again.

 

Now tomorrow should continue some decline before the rally can begin. Having said that we already have a decline in place but based on averages it should go lower.

 

So far we have a 50% retracement. Will see what tomorrow brings

[TradeRunner 10]

Perhaps I was too quick to get to break-even.

 

Or was your entry too late?

 

I took the same short as you (3rd trade on my chart) but sold the break of the congestion at resistence and the retest of trendline higher up.

 

TradeRunner

[Cory2679 11]

Or was your entry too late?

 

I see what you're saying, but I wouldn't necessarily call it "too late"...just a larger degree of swing.

 

I wasn't up early enough to take your trade, anyway. I don't get on until 8am eastern time (or really a little before to prepare).

 

-Cory

 

EDIT: Although, it could be a good idea to enter off the smaller degree of swing, and manage off of the larger degree...could give you a more desirable risk:reward situation...sort of getting a head start on the short off the larger swing.

[thalestrader 14]

Current look at the 6E/EURUSD has me awaiting price's arrival in the zone between 1.3698-1.3720, and if I had to "pick a tick" I'd be watching for what happens at, above, and below 1.3713 (highlighted in the ellipse).

 

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

I just realized something peculiar about my chart after Thales posted his...

 

Look at this 4 hour chart I posted earlier...then look how it looks now...on the chart I was looking at this morning, the high had not been broken!!

 

Stupid Ninja/Gain. That kind of thing can make a difference!!

[MidKnight 12]

Very tight congestion all of Asia showing urgency for the long side. Unfortunately, I can never notice this in real-time, but regardless, it sets the stage for the current climate. I tend to think of urgent situations occurring when there are many trapped traders trying to get out, not so much for new positions being initiated. The major trend has turned to up and is now in sync with the immediate trend. Coming back up into what I'd consider to be the first major R in the 1.5350/450 zone.

 

Attention Points

1.5350/450 significant 240m pivot low

++ 1.5319 ----------------

1.5210/45 immediate trend S

1.5160/200 pullback highs S

 

Longs

I would consider aggressive longs on a trigger after it probes below 1.5280. This was the top of yesterdays R zone and has already had a 'flip' reaction from late in the USA session. Any longs taken from here should be more aggressive exiting seeing as we are still within what I would call significant R. Aiming to be out of 1/2 before 1.5360 trades, another 1/4 before 1.5400 trades and trail the rest for up to 1.5450 area maybe.

 

Another possibility is dropping down through 1.5280 to test the immediate trend S. Longs here will aim to exit 1/2 before 1.5360 trades, another 1/4 before 1.5400 trades and trail the rest for up to 1.5450 area maybe.

 

Shorts

I'm happy to short on an obvious trigger above PDH, continuing to work shorts from this significant R zone. Depending on how far beyond PDH the market goes will determine my scale-outs but it may be something like this should it go around the 1.5420 area. 1/4 before 1.5360 trades, 1/4 before 1.5300 trades and trail the rest for deeper pullback into the old pullback high S at 1.5160/200.

[Cory2679 11]

I'm beginning to think that daytrading the EUR/USD during the Tokyo AM hours may not be the best use of my time. I'm beginning to rethink my daily schedule...

[Cory2679 11]

I'm beginning to think that daytrading the EUR/USD during the Tokyo AM hours may not be the best use of my time. I'm beginning to rethink my daily schedule...

 

The yen pairs look a bit more lively...

[thalestrader 14]

Current look at the 6E/EURUSD has me awaiting price's arrival in the zone between 1.3698-1.3720, and if I had to "pick a tick" I'd be watching for what happens at, above, and below 1.3713 (highlighted in the ellipse).

 

 

 

 

6E dropped into the pocket, printed a 1.3711 low, bounced to about 1.3718, pulled back to 1.3712, I bought the 1.3713 offer, stop loss at 1.3710, .1R (that is 1/10th of 1R risk - in other words, I am risk only a dime of a typical risked dollar. If stopped out, I can always play again depending upon what price does. If I am not stopped out, and this rallies to my 1.3831 target, the pay off will be a $39.33 for every $1 bet. If I'm wrong, I lose my dollar. How is that for trading for infinite yield?

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[MidKnight 12]

I'm beginning to think that daytrading the EUR/USD during the Tokyo AM hours may not be the best use of my time. I'm beginning to rethink my daily schedule...

 

Not ideal mate, but from frankfurt 8am to about noon EST is where the majority of the movement happens on a consistent basis. I know that is not ideal for you, it is not for me either...Find a balance that doesn't kill ya. I start at the Tokyo open but usually it is a case of only loosely monitoring things. You know, check the market, not near my APs or as per my planned script so go away and do some house/yard work. Check in again in an hour or so. From Frankfurt open I am here and attentive till about 8am EST. I'd like to be here until noon EST but that schedule kills me....

 

With kind regards,

MK

[MidKnight 12]

6E dropped into the pocket, printed a 1.3711 low, bounced to about 1.3718, pulled back to 1.3712, I bought the 1.3713 offer, stop loss at 1.3710, .1R (that is 1/10th of 1R risk - in other words, I am risk only a dime of a typical risked dollar. If stopped out, I can always play again depending upon what price does. If I am not stopped out, and this rallies to my 1.3831 target, the pay off will be a $39.33 for every $1 bet. If I'm wrong, I lose my dollar. How is that for trading for infinite yield?

 

That is what I would love to be able to do - seriously. Risks that small within contextual views would be awwweeeeesome~! Nice going, Thales.

 

With kind regards,

MK

[Cory2679 11]

6E dropped into the pocket, printed a 1.3711 low, bounced to about 1.3718, pulled back to 1.3712, I bought the 1.3713 offer, stop loss at 1.3710, .1R...

 

I feel like this type of trade would be much easier trading with a DOM.

 

I gave a long a shot, but got to BE pretty quick and got stopped out (I was up about 0.5R at one point).

 

Then, I got pulled away from the computer for the second half of the Tokyo AM, but it doesn't look like I missed much anyway...

[thalestrader 14]

I feel like this type of trade would be much easier trading with a DOM.

 

DOM or chart or even just a last trade quote window would be all the same. Price is price. Do not confuse its various re-presentations for something different from the thing itself.

 

I gave a long a shot, but got to BE pretty quick and got stopped out...

 

I am very slow to go to BE when I get an entry close to the low tick and within an area which I anticipated support/resistance. For example, I bought 6E this morning at 1.3732, low was 1.3727, stop loss was 1.3726. Price rallied 20 ticks off that low before comeing down and re-testing it to the tick. A BE stop would have had me miss a 42 tick profit on a trade with a 6 tick initial risk. When I am in close to a lw or high, I let it ride (as I am tonight with this 6E long at 1.3713, 1.3710 stop loss. I could lose 20 of these in a row (hasn't happened yet) and on the 21st trade I'd win back all that I had lost and then again as much. These trades occur at potential pivot points, so if you are wrong, you lose small, but if you are right, you can win very, very big.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

That is what I would love to be able to do - seriously. Risks that small within contextual views would be awwweeeeesome...

 

All you need to do is watch price intently once it eneter one of your S/R zone sthat you have been so kind to share with us. It works best when you can "pick a tick," to focus upon - a prior swing low, for example, that is bbeing revisited for the first time, where price had previously spent little time as it saw immediate buying interest develop. It is even better when your "picked tick" is exceeded by a margin (the smaller the better but be flexible) and then price again sees immediate buying interest.

 

Think Trader Vic's 2B. Nothing like entering on a 2B, adding on a 123, and then scaling out on the way to your next area of interest.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Hi folks,

 

just to let you know: Thales is perfectly right when he insists on reading the DOM.

It took me several days, but suddenly my sight improved dramatically.

 

Yes it is possible to sell into movements, which are beginning to fall,

and to buy into movements, which are beginning to rise.

You can swing with the market on the DOM, I couldn't believe that....

 

It's only training, training and training.

 

Thanks Thales,

Marko

 

P.S. Absence from chats, forums etc. helped me.

 

I don't insist that everyone read the DOM. But, like you, if someone devotes some time to watching the DOM, it should prove beneficial, especially when price has reached S/R and you are trying to decide whther it is indicating the S/R will hold or break etc.

 

As for absence form chats, forums, etc., I myself will have be posting a little less than I had been for the next several weeks as I have some outside projects that are taking considerably more of my time than I had anticipated.

 

I am happy to hear that you time away has helped you, and that you are pleased witht he progres you have made reading the DOM.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

DOM or chart or even just a last trade quote window would be all the same. Price is price. Do not confuse its various re-presentations for something different from the thing itself.

 

I am very slow to go to BE when I get an entry close to the low tick and within an area which I anticipated support/resistance. For example, I bought 6E this morning at 1.3732, low was 1.3727, stop loss was 1.3726. Price rallied 20 ticks off that low before comeing down and re-testing it to the tick. A BE stop would have had me miss a 42 tick profit on a trade with a 6 tick initial risk. When I am in close to a lw or high, I let it ride (as I am tonight with this 6E long at 1.3713, 1.3710 stop loss. I could lose 20 of these in a row (hasn't happened yet) and on the 21st trade I'd win back all that I had lost and then again as much. These trades occur at potential pivot points, so if you are wrong, you lose small, but if you are right, you can win very, very big.

 

Thanks for the advice. That was the first trade of that kind that I've ever attempted...I'm sure I need a little work. Up to this point I've only traded breakouts/123's, but I feel like I'm missing out so it's definitely something I wish to pursue further.

 

As for my DOM comment, I did want to clarify that what I meant was with the actual trade/entry...when dialing down...even down to the tick...it's just so easy to click an order on a DOM really quickly.

 

-Cory

[MidKnight 12]

All you need to do is watch price intently once it eneter one of your S/R zone sthat you have been so kind to share with us. It works best when you can "pick a tick," to focus upon - a prior swing low, for example, that is bbeing revisited for the first time, where price had previously spent little time as it saw immediate buying interest develop. It is even better when your "picked tick" is exceeded by a margin (the smaller the better but be flexible) and then price again sees immediate buying interest.

 

Think Trader Vic's 2B. Nothing like entering on a 2B, adding on a 123, and then scaling out on the way to your next area of interest.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Thanks for the comment there. My zones can be fairly wide making it hard to pick a tick. All that you wrote above is very sound thinking and I totally agree. 2Bs are a very common entry that I utilize. My precision so far is nowhere near as good as this was, but I continue to work on it!

 

GL on your outside projects. I hope they are satisfying but end soon

 

With kind regards,

MK

[Cory2679 11]

...I was expecting a retest of the recent low before a continuation upward...

 

Well, would you look at that!

[Cory2679 11]

...it could be a good idea to enter off the smaller degree of swing, and manage off of the larger degree...could give you a more desirable risk:reward situation...sort of getting a head start on the short off the larger swing...

 

In the spirit of that post, I'm looking for a long like this, with a PT of 10R!

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

I'm not sure it will get there, and if it does get there, I'm not sure what it will do, but I'd prefer to look for longs in the area between 1.3639 down to 1.3619 (the lower rectangle shaded area) and if I had to pick a tick, I'd focus on what price does at, above, and just below 1.3619 (elliptical highlight). The red arrows and blue arrows do not represent predictions, only possibilities that I am looking to trade depending upon what, if anything, develops. Again, there is nothing that says price is going to trade to that area.

 

 

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales