Reading Charts in Real Time

[jonbig04 10]

Nice charts dinero!

 

Oil is a great market to be trading, even when it's 'tight' there's still money to be made. Keep it up.

 

I'm pretty much head over heels for CL now. I'm restraining myself and trading it sim for a set amount of time. The thing loves to breakout it seems. I caught a breakout on it the other day that netted the equivalent of my entire monthly goal on ES lol. It just makes ES feel so boring.

[MightyMouse 12]

May I ask how you determine your stop loss?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Sorry for the delayed response. I use minor swings as stop levels.

 

I moved my stop to 8966 and I will remove the target about 15 minutes before nfp with hopes of getting some love from the announcement; otherwise, I'll be happy to take the target beforehand and wash my hands of this trade.

 

I guess it would be easy to see if I posted a chart.

Edited March 5, 2010 by MightyMouse
Afterthought

[MightyMouse 12]

Sorry for the delayed response. I use minor swings as stop levels.

 

I moved my stop to 8966 and I will remove the target about 15 minutes before nfp with hopes of getting some love from the announcement; otherwise, I'll be happy to take the target beforehand and wash my hands of this trade.

 

I guess it would be easy to see if I posted a chart.

 

targets back in. Didn't get the love I wanted so I want out.

[Plaste 10]

Short euro cash 1.3540, stop 1.3565, PT 1.3455

[fxThunder 10]

EJ has a short setup and I am stalking.

 

cheers,

fxT

 

Update: cancelled due to new high

Edited March 5, 2010 by fxThunder

[MightyMouse 12]

targets back in. Didn't get the love I wanted so I want out.

 

Over and out. 91 and it certainly felt right.

 

Out at 9071. 91 tick gain

[Plaste 10]

Short euro cash 1.3540, stop 1.3565, PT 1.3455

 

Stopped out at 1.3565 (should have been 1.3580 but I entered the wrong price). For the sake of completeness I am now long at 1.3583, original stop @ 1.3540, now 1.3567.

[thalestrader 14]

Oil is a great market to be trading, even when it's 'tight' there's still money to be made. Keep it up.

 

At least currently oil is one of the easiest markets I've ever day traded, but it can be quick to punish you when you are wrong - do not trade it without a stop that goes into the market at the same instant you go into the market ( a small intraday leg can easily be the equivalent of 10-12 ES points).

 

It is also very uneven in terms of liquidity. I never know whether I am going to be filled on a stop at the tick or a nickle a way. Today I had a buy limit get filled one tick below my limit order and my trailing sell stop was filled one tick above my stop price. That is the second time this week I had positive slippage on both ends of a trade. But I also have had a buy stop get filled a nickle above the stop price and my stop loss get filled with negative slippage of 5 ticks, though not in the same trade. But I agree, Brownie. All in all, Oil is one slick trade right now. Enjoy it while it lasts. Nat gas was the same way four years ago and then seemingly overnight it turned into the ES. The ES, by the way, has, in my opinion, become more and more unpleasant to trade.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[jonbig04 10]

The ES, by the way, has, in my opinion, become more and more unpleasant to trade.

 

Thales

 

Tell me about it! :doh:

[rigel 10]

At least currently oil is one of the easiest markets I've ever day traded, but it can be quick to punish you when you are wrong - do not trade it without a stop that goes into the market at the same instant you go into the market ( a small intraday leg can easily be the equivalent of 10-12 ES points).

 

It is also very uneven in terms of liquidity. . The ES, by the way, has, in my opinion, become more and more unpleasant to trade.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Since every market is manipulated to some extent, how does Taylor's methodology perform on CL as per your limited experience. What was the day assigned for Friday, ie. B, S or SS. I want to start tracking the market and observe for myself whether or not Taylors rules apply here.

Notice you trade from daily charts, wonder why not from 15min or less.

 

BTW in Index futures if you find ES sluggish, TF and NQ can be alternative

Dax can be positively explosive. You would ofcourse have to get up very early to take advantage of first couple of hours action:), however once the US opens, there is enough movement to exceed that in ES. Even FTSE is behaving that way recently as well.

[Marko23 10]

Stopped at 25 which would be +2.6R less the -.06R from the first test entry yields a +2R result.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Thanks for this series.

I looked up the details on a 1m chart and can imagine what you saw on the DOM.

[Marko23 10]

DugDug has the key point: "so long as the process becomes consistent"

 

Whatever you do you shouldn't leave it up in the air. If you do that you will probably follow the majority into the path of picking the wrong one each time. Under stress (live trade, lots of money ticking up and down) you do not make the best decisions.

 

Have a plan. Execute it. Accept that every alternative will cause some form of pain at least half the time if you hope/want/wish to optimize each trade. And instead congratulate yourself on consistent every time execution.

 

There should be a "double thanks" button.

[Marko23 10]

...

TTT is similar in that it is based upon the average extent of the average cycle low to cycle high (anyone familiar with Trader Vic will know the value of considering the average extent of moves of like degree). If a TTT number falls with an S/R zone, it becomes very relevant for my trading. If, on the other hand, it is hanging out there in the middle of nowhere, then it is likely just another random chart point with no more or less meaning than any other tick out there in no man's land.

...

 

Sounds interesting and like a value I always monitor: the 30 day moving average of the daily range, not the ATR. For smoothness I use Wilder's version of moving average, sometimes called modified moving average.

 

It shows contraction and expansion of range cycle, gives me a target for daytrading and a size for the vertical .scale of my main daytrding chart.

Edited March 6, 2010 by Marko23

[Dinerotrader 10]

At least currently oil is one of the easiest markets I've ever day traded,

All in all, Oil is one slick trade right now. Enjoy it while it lasts. Nat gas was the same way four years ago and then seemingly overnight it turned into the ES. The ES, by the way, has, in my opinion, become more and more unpleasant to trade.

 

Thales

 

I hope oil doesn't change for a long while. I traded soybeans for a while because they moved so well and trended so well but that changed over time. It would be quite disappointing if oil stopped moving like it does but I guess that is inevitable. Just have to be ready to switch to other futures if the movement changes dramatically enough that my setups stop working as well.

[Marko23 10]

Hi Folks,

 

I just received an email from FXCM that micro spreads will be increasing on March 21 to the spreads used on the standard accounts. So for those of you who had been enjoying relatively fair pricing by using micor, it is time to look for a new bucket shop. MidK seems pleased with Interactivebrokers, though new traders learning to trade with very limited anounts of capital may be hamoered by IB's margin requirements.

 

If you have at least a few thousand in risk capital, it might be a good time to consider moving to futures - the 6E, which tracks the EURUSD, trades at 12.50/tick, and the 6B, which tracks the GBPUSD, trades at 6.25 tick.

 

Anyone else who would care to share suggestions should speak up here for the benefit of the others.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

I trade with IB and am fine with them. For 6E I would have to change my working hours something I'm not very fond of.

[Marko23 10]

Hi folks,

 

just to let you know: I can't find a proper parameter set to trade EUR/USD with the ACD method.

It is profitable but Thales' method has a much better return. I gave up ACD after tinkering and backtesting for nearly three weeks.

 

Currently I train my eyes on the DOM; that demands my complete attention.

There is no time for TL during working hours. I'll read last week's postings over the weekend to keep in touch.

 

DOM is demanding for me with slow progress, an additional 3m chart helps a little.

 

Please continue with this superb thread.

[Marko23 10]

Here is a little gem, I discovered with the IB TWS charting program.

 

Under Configure Settings there is a check box named "Share trend lines among charts"

That is very useful for S/R trading.

With this switch turned on, every S or R zone marked with horizontal lines in a daily or 60m chart automagically appears on a15m or smaller chart, one uses during the day for trading.

 

You never overlook a support or resistance from another timescale with this simple feature.

Edited March 7, 2010 by Marko23

[jonbig04 10]

Thought I'd share this potential trade, and reasoning behind it. Below is a large time frame chart. I'm hoping for a pullback tonight/tomorrow (hence the short in the next chart). After which I will try to get long around 1125.75. The red lines outlines what I'm looking for. In an ideal world, right? Haha.

 

Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

 

And the stop entry:

 

Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

 

One thing I don't like about this trade is the R/R. On the short it's only 4R. Mostly because this swing is a good deal larger than the ones I usually take, but I've been getting so few signals on ES lately I feel like I kinda have to take what I can get. Also, if the trade pans out I should be able to get a 6R or 7R trade in on the long at the bottom. If so my target will be trend continuance, and higher highs. If it happens, that is. A big if.

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

Here is what an early long on the 6J looks like (JPYUSD futures which trade inversely to the USDJPY).

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

Here is what an early long on the 6J looks like (JPYUSD futures which trade inversely to the USDJPY).

 

 

And this is how a short sequence looks on the USDJPY at the moment ...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[jonbig04 10]

Thought I'd share this potential trade, and reasoning behind it. Below is a large time frame chart. I'm hoping for a pullback tonight/tomorrow (hence the short in the next chart). After which I will try to get long around 1125.75. The red lines outlines what I'm looking for. In an ideal world, right? Haha.

 

Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

 

And the stop entry:

 

Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

 

One thing I don't like about this trade is the R/R. On the short it's only 4R. Mostly because this swing is a good deal larger than the ones I usually take, but I've been getting so few signals on ES lately I feel like I kinda have to take what I can get. Also, if the trade pans out I should be able to get a 6R or 7R trade in on the long at the bottom. If so my target will be trend continuance, and higher highs. If it happens, that is. A big if.

 

Never triggered. To sleep I go.

[DugDug 10]

thales re your recent USDJPY, JPYUSD charts - how can you short one currency and at the same time be long it?...... that just does not make any sense!

 

(just kidding - reminds me of a fund manager who during a presentation said "we never short anything ever, and then proceeded to tell everyone about some of the long EUR trades they had done )

[nikke 10]

longed fesx

http://img40.imageshack.us/img40/4585/fesx03101min83201020100.png

 

possibly too early, soon we'll see

[DugDug 10]

Nikke I was looking at a similar thing, however I passed as after the recent run up, I feel I would prefer more of a pullback or ABC down, using longer term bars eg; 15min as it starting to do now. While I dont know enough about TTT - it has made me think more about what I would call marginal trades in terms of the previous days context.

[richbois 10]

Nikke I was looking at a similar thing, however I passed as after the recent run up, I feel I would prefer more of a pullback or ABC down, using longer term bars eg; 15min as it starting to do now. While I dont know enough about TTT - it has made me think more about what I would call marginal trades in terms of the previous days context.

 

Good thinking with TTT on a SS day and it failed to make much of a higher high.

 

must say it was not a great SS day either.