Reading Charts in Real Time

[fxThunder 10]

GU long entry triggered....

 

Cheers,

eNQ

[fxThunder 10]

GU long entry triggered....

 

Cheers,

eNQ

 

Stop to breakeven now. Reached projected channel down trendline here and should punch through quickly if it is going to continue upwards. This area should also be a good area to consider shorts and hence playing conservatively here,

 

Cheers,

eNQ

[MightyMouse 12]

short the euro at 35.17. stop is 1.35.53 My target is 1.34.64 for now. I took 35 ticks on a previous short at 1.3545 but didn't post it

[fxThunder 10]

Keeping my GU stop at breakeven and adding this long stalk on EU.

 

Cheers,

eNQ

[fxThunder 10]

Keeping my GU stop at breakeven and adding this long stalk on EU.

 

Cheers,

eNQ

 

Long entry triggered..

[MightyMouse 12]

short the euro at 35.17. stop is 1.35.53 My target is 1.34.64 for now. I took 35 ticks on a previous short at 1.3545 but didn't post it

 

Of course every one that i post is going to end up being a loser.

[thalestrader 14]

Of course every one that i post is going to end up being a loser.

 

Well I'm pulling for you MM, as I have been trying to buy it not too far below where you want to take profits ...

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[fxThunder 10]

stop moved on GU long.

 

Cheers,

eNQ

[fxThunder 10]

Similarly, stop moved on EU long.

 

I am a bit more agressive on stops due to time of day and lack of impulse on both these trades.

 

Cheers,

eNQ

 

EDIT:

 

Risk on EU is now 8 ticks and profit stop on GU is 30 ticks

 

EDIT 2:

In fact, closed out all positions - risk is increasing on this slow rise and l can "sense" the pullback developing

[thalestrader 14]

Here is what it would look like if you were short CL at 79.38 like I am ... Short at 79.38!?

 

Can anyone tell me why I might want to be short there?

 

 

For the record, my stop loss is now 79.07, and my profit target is 77.13

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

For the record, my stop loss is now 79.07, and my profit target is 77.13

 

Stop is now 78.92, which is a little more than +3R based upon inital risk ...

 

 

strike that, stop is now 78.71,or +4.5R ...

 

 

 

I will admit to getting very antsy here since I only traded a one lot and - had I traded size, I'd have scaled out of a few by now...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Stop is now 78.92, which is a little more than +3R based upon inital risk ...

 

 

strike that, stop is now 78.71,or +4.5R ...

 

Stop is now 78.62 as I follow the dancing DOM ... +5.06R

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

+5.06R

 

Geez, I wish I could make that in a week!!! :o:\

[jonbig04 10]

Interesting to see how you played that Thales. I'm in a sim short on CL right now.

 

Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

 

 

Got knocked out BE on this one, which stinks after being up 60 ticks or so. I would have tried to re-enter but I was asleep. Then I tried a long this AM and took a full stop for -14 ticks. Then we got the "jonbig" break out haha. Notice the successive LH's followed by repeated tests of S. Just hit the target for +104 ticks. BTW this is all sim until I get used to crude.

 

Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

 

I've been noticing every one is sharing their gains/losses in terms of R/R, I think that's a great idea. My stop loss in the last trade was 14 ticks from my entry (the fact that the last trade's stop was also 14 ticks is just a coincidence). That would put my R/R around 1:7.4, so this would be a +7.4R trade. I think that's what you all are doing, correct me if I'm wrong. I want to follow the same format as everyone else.

[thalestrader 14]

Stop is now 78.62 as I follow the dancing DOM ... +5.06R

 

Moved stop to 78.38 to try to capture a clean buck on the trade (+6.67R) ...

[i just got bounced out at 78.38, and to the tick it looks like - not a bad trade ...

 

 

 

 

 

TTT gives odds a low of 77.07, which is just 2 pennies above the 2/25 low. However, the odds are a mere 50/50 (still not a bad guidepost) ...

 

 

For example, according to TTT, we had an 85% chance of a HOD at or around 80.80, and the actual high was 80.62, which, given that I was given the information 48 hours before the open, is enough to base a plan on.

 

Of course, TTT is merely a tool that provides landmarks that let's me see if the road map in my head is moving according to plan or not. The real basis of this trade is simply highs and lows, higher highs and higher lows, lower highs and lower lows, prior highs and prior lows.

 

At any rate, I am likely done until Tokyo. Between last night and this morning, I finish the first day of March +8.9R in my Ninja demo, and a 8.45 in real life. Not a bad start to the month at all...

 

 

As you can see, my win rate is just over 50% (the 6E and I had quite few little skirmishes today as I tested the waters, and on balance, 6E won - which is a real shame, by the way, and extremely poor on my part as TTT, for the record, gave me 80% odds of a HOD at 1.3654 (actual high) and a 100% chance of a LOD below 1.3496 and down to 1.3453 - very poorly played on my part)

 

At any rate, the key take away is that though my winning % was just better than even, the average win was nearly 3.45 times the average loss, and my argets loss was a -.77R, with the average loss -.43R.

 

That is what I consider trading for infinite yield, and that is how I can take swing after swing after swing and whether any particular trade is a winner or a loser matters not at all to me.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

EDIT 2:

In fact, closed out all positions - risk is increasing on this slow rise and l can "sense" the pullback developing

 

I passed on that trade...partially because it was after 12pm EST (London close), but mostly because I was positive for the day and was worried I'd give it back. For shame.

 

Looks like we both may have missed out...

[DugDug 10]

Dont worry MM - I think that every pre trade I have actually posted here has been a looser!

(There is a big Red L on the forehead.) The trades I have not posted are sometimes a loser sometimes a winner. Funny thing is I feel my paper trading over the last week was getting me back into the swing of things, so today I did a few live trades in one instrument to restart....

(now I know these are hindsight, but it does not take too much to see that these were pretty easy trade levels to take, so I will keep it minimised out of respect for Thales ) I just feel the love flowing back into me now.

 

 

This might provide a level of interest later in the 6B H0, either for a further retracement rally - or a break of the 1.4875 level.

 

Cory - thats an interesting one that you were afraid to give it back. Its one thing that thankfully has never plagued me, I definitely do agree that you should give yourself some measure of telling you when to stop - either exchange time, PL loss, or beer o'clock - but dear god not the fear of giving a small gain back. I feel if you practice this one it will lead to bad habits. (my 2 cents)

Better to just keep a tight stop but continue to give yourself the opportunity to make more.

Edited March 1, 2010 by DugDug

[thalestrader 14]

...so this would be a +7.4R trade. I think that's what you all are doing, correct me if I'm wrong. I want to follow the same format as everyone else.

 

That is exactly what we are doing, Jon. It is far more meaningful than focusing on ticks. It also helps folks begin to think in terms of position sizing.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[fxThunder 10]

I passed on that trade...partially because it was after 12pm EST (London close), but mostly because I was positive for the day and was worried I'd give it back. For shame.

 

Looks like we both may have missed out...

 

Hi Cory,

 

Agreed we may have lost out but, EU was stalling at the lod of from yesterday and other resistance areas. Price was also rallying very slowly.

 

I felt risk was surpassing reward at that time and hence decided to flatten and reevaluate.

One thing I know for sure - I will never get all the swings but I will get enough of the good ones to make me money.

 

BTW: - I liked your trades today - I missed the long you got stopped on due to being away from the screen - but am sure I may have tried it as well.

 

Cheers,

eNQ

[jonbig04 10]

 

At any rate, the key take away is that though my winning % was just better than even, the average win was nearly 3.45 times the average loss, and my argets loss was a -.77R, with the average loss -.43R.

 

That is what I consider trading for infinite yield, and that is how I can take swing after swing after swing and whether any particular trade is a winner or a loser matters not at all to me.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Heck yea. R/R is where it's at! :beer:

[DugDug 10]

I like that Thales - "swing after swing after swing "

This is pretty important as taking losses is about surviving to trade again. Taking small losses is about keeping the nerve to trade again, and doing it continually in order to give yourself the opportunity to profit from those moves that go your way profitably as you planned them is important.

Even if the simple patterns/swings/indicators people use are only a 50-50 bet thats all you need to keep swinging

(swinging as in a bat and not socially I am sure thats what Thales means at least):did I say that?:

[richbois 10]

hey guys did you ever try the Taylor Trading Technique on CL

 

It was a heck of a nice SellShort Day and if you missed the entry at the 1st high there was the second high and you missed that one too you had the 3rd just a bit lower.

 

2+ handles was not so bad

 

Sorry Thales I had to say something about your secret

[Dinerotrader 10]

hey guys did you ever try the Taylor Trading Technique on CL

 

It was a heck of a nice SellShort Day and if you missed the entry at the 1st high there was the second high and you missed that one too you had the 3rd just a bit lower.

 

2+ handles was not so bad

 

Sorry Thales I had to say something about your secret

 

Rich,

You might consider starting a thread here at TL to give an explanation of your service and show some real time use of the data you would receive as a subscriber and how you think it can be used to improve your trading. I am interested and have considered using it several times. I trade oil almost exclusively so your CL service is what I have considered. Thanks.

[thalestrader 14]

Geez, I wish I could make that in a week!!! :o:\

 

You will, so long as you do not listen to and believe those who say it can't be done.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Sorry Thales I had to say something about your secret

 

Hi richbois,

 

I have no secrets, and I've been very upfront with folks here that I subscribe to your services. I have not shared much about it here because I don't want to be selling anything for anyone and also it is hard for me to show how I use it in real time without giving away the numbers that your subscribers pay for - but if you want to share your TTT insights and how you suggest folks use it here in this thread, so long as James is ok with it, so am I.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales